cmb0252

Hicks was not only rushed to the bigs but was a notorious slow starter. I'm not sure what people were expecting from the kid. For every Trout/Harper there are 100 talent prospects that come up to the bigs and struggle their first year or two. He is going to be fine. Talk about people freaking out about small sample size.

A) and it is not even close. Stewart is the only pitcher in the draft not named Gray or Appel who profiles as a true ace. He also has very advanced stuff for his age. Is there a little more risk taking a HS pitcher vs a college pitcher? I'm not so sure about that in this draft. Shipley has an insanely short track record because he was a converted SS and until 2 weeks ago had throw several clunkers in a row. He has #2 upside but hasn't had the K numbers you would like from a guy with his stuff. Manaea was a super popular pick before the year started because of insane Cape Cod numbers from increased "stuff". Problem is he hasn't shown the same "stuff" since the Cape Cod league and had never shown it before which leaves many questions unanswered. Add in an injury and experts are starting to wonder if he will even go in the first round. Stanek has been so inconsistent this year while having a very violent delivery that lots of scouts think he might be a relief pitcher in the bigs. Upside wise Stank, Shipley, and Manaea are a clear step below Stewart while IMO not being an safer. Heck, not only are they not safer I don't think anything about them shouts quicker to the bigs and isn't that the argument to take college pitcher with less upside than HS pitchers? Regarding McGuire.... I just don't see the depth in this draft to justify it. Super deep draft? Maybe. This year? No thanks.

Christopher Crawford did a mini interview over at the U.S.S Mariner blog and here are a few of the interesting questions/answers. How do you think this draft class stacks up with other recent years’? Last year, you mentioned that the 2012 class was a step behind 2011 and 2010′s…do you still think that’s the case? Overall, do you think talent evaluators are able to forecast this (draft class quality) reliably? Or is it something that can only be judged in hindsight? It’s a case of quality or quantity. The top five prospects in this class are really good, with two future aces in Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray, a plus-plus power hitter in Kris Bryant who I think can play third base, a pitcher with two 70 pitches in Kohl Stewart and a very intriguing athlete in Meadows. After that, the quality wanes quite a bit, with very little available in terms of college bats and not a single left-handed starter who will go in the first round assuming Sean Manaea’s injuries push him out.As far as judging this class accurately, I think it’s an interesting question. This was the year of the pop-up; Gray was considered more of a second-third round guy when the year began, and names like Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley and Mississippi State’s Hunter Renfroe coming from no where to being possible top ten picks. Pop-up’s help increase the depth in the class, but also make scouting difficult as there isn’t the pedigree that some of the other top names have. Guys like Peterson, Renfroe and Reese McGuire have a ton of varying positions from the scouts and talent-evaluators I talk to, but there does seem to be a sort of consensus in this year’s draft compared to others. From an outsider’s point of view, it looks like the draft class’ strongest position is at catcher, particularly the high school backstops. Local kid Reese McGuire heads up that group. The M’s could, conceivably, have their pick of McGuire, Ciuffo, or Denney. Of course, they just took Mike Zunino last year and they have some depth at the position, even despite Jesus Montero’s faceplant. If McGuire (or Ciuffo) is on the board, should the M’s take him? If not, why not? It definitely is the strength of the class, though I wouldn’t take any of them in the first dozen picks. McGuire is one of — if not the — best defensive catchers I’ve ever seen, with the strongest arm of any backstop in the class. I just can’t take a hitter with a 40-45 hit grade that high, defensive star or not. There may be some local pressure — and the Mariners have seen him a ton — but I don’t think he’s going to be available anyway. Ciuffo’s got average tools across the board with the potential for maybe above-average power, but more of a late first-round talent, the same with Denney who probably will have to switch positions long-term. Which players in the first round will be toughest to sign? Manaea obviously is going to be a tough signing, and I can’t imagine him going to a team that doesn’t have multiple picks and extra allocation funds. Kohl Stewart could be a difficult signing with his commitment to play football at Texas A&M, and Frazier and Meadows will likely take to the last day, but I think they’ll all get done. Years from now, this draft will be known for X? Or will it be forgettable? I think this class will be made or broken by the top three, if Appel, Bryant and Gray are as good as I think they might be, then it’s a special top of the class. If Appel is more of a mid rotation guy and Gray burns out and Bryant can’t hit, then this will be a very forgettable class. Most of the questions are Mariner related but here is the full article: 2013 MLB Draft Preview with Chris Crawford of MLB Draft Insider | U.S.S. Mariner

While experts might not agree who the exact BPA was last year obviously the Twins front office did. After spending a butt load of time and money they ended up taking a HS CFer over the three college arms. What does that tell you about their board? In the end who cares who Law or Callis or Sickels thinks is the best player? Not their jobs on the line.

Great work like always Seth. Having two guys that are legitimate #1 prospects in Buxton/Sano is exciting. Hopefully the Twins can steal another top prospect in this upcoming draft.

The quote comes from the comment section where the author of the study responds. Sorry about that, I should have made that clearer.

I'm confused....what did he ever do to you? Did he beat you up in middle school and take your lunch money? From all accounts he doesn't have any real character concerns.

The thing is front offices are just now meeting and putting together their draft boards. When Jeremy interviewed Johnson he mentioned it takes about a full week with everyone together to make a 900 person board. I just feel this information was leaked so early that it has to be for negotiation reasons.

Second source to mention Guillorme to the Twins [TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtext viewer_text, bgcolor: #F2F7F7][TABLE=width: 0] Which teams do you think will take Abreu, Collins, and Guillorme? [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtime]2:11 [/TD] [TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Kiley McDaniel: Hearing Angels on Abreu, multiple teams on Collins in late 2nd and Guillorme more of a 3rd-5th round fit with lots of team liking him, Red Sox, Twins and DBacks among them.[/TD] [/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtext viewer_text, bgcolor: #F2F7F7][TABLE=width: 0] Comment From Dave Is there a chance at all (non-zero?) that Houston native Kohl Stewart goes 1-1? To me it makes more sense on the organization timeline: have to think a college would be close to arbitration by the time Correa/Ruiz/McCullers etc are ready to make an impact. [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtime]1:57 [/TD] [TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Kiley McDaniel: I can guarantee you they aren't consider that part, are just trying to pick the best guy at the best price and I'm betting Stewart was out of their mix at least a month ago, since I know he isn't in their mix now.[/TD] [/TABLE]

Law's scouting report on Reed: 6'5 220 lbs LHP Summary http://a.espncdn.com/i/in.gif:Reed is a true ?pop-up? guy, appearing on scouts' radars this spring as a possible sandwich-round pick who was undrafted when eligible the last two years. He checks a lot of boxes scouts look for in amateur pitchers -- size, athleticism, handedness (his would be left), velocity (92-95), a second pitch (a plus curveball), and a good delivery. Reed takes a long stride toward the plate, keeps himself online, and gets his pitching hand turned over nice and early. He's still something of a project, with below-average command and control and a lack of formal pitching instruction or history facing good competition, but the raw material here is tremendous, with the potential for a mid-rotation starter or more.

[TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtext viewer_text, bgcolor: #F2F7F7][TABLE=width: 0] What are your thoughts on Boldt and where he will go in the draft? [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtime]1:55 [/TD] [TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Kiley McDaniel: Could be another cold-weather steal, hearing DET and MIN on him most which makes sense having local ties and more history on him. Chance to be about as good as Josh Hart but less track record and not quite the bat control but in the same ballpark.[/TD] [/TABLE]

Haha! That one was mine.

[TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtext viewer_text, bgcolor: #F2F7F7][TABLE=width: 0] Out of the big 3 (Gray, Bryant,Appel) who is most likely to fall to the Twins at 4? [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtime]1:52 [/TD] [TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Kiley McDaniel: I'll say Bryant since he has Boras and is a junior and that could mean and Appel like drop, although talent wise, hitters tend to go head of arms all things being equal. So, basically, I have no idea b/c this top 5 buzz is changing every day.[/TD] [/TABLE]

[TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtext viewer_text, bgcolor: #F2F7F7][TABLE=width: 0] Based on upside alone, who has the higher upside between Appel, Gray, or Stewart [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 0] [TD=class: chatmsgtime]1:51 [/TD] [TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Kiley McDaniel: Appel. Surprises me that some people say Gray.[/TD] [/TABLE]

I have asked a ton of questions to both but getting no love!

This. I think this is a negotiation tactic to try and get one of the arms at some sort of discount even if it is only a few hundred thousand. The Astros didn't play their hand till the last second last year so I doubt they would do it 3 weeks early this year.

Heck yeah!

Keith law will also have one at 12 CST

This is pay information so you can't post it here. Only little bits and pieces.

Keih Law's second mock is out and it is an interesting one. Moran #1 and the Twins taking Stewart over Gray. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9322119/houston-astros-take-colin-moran-mark-appel-second-mock-draft-2013-mlb-draft

Stewart over Gray......which confuses me

Getting any top level talent typically results from taking someone in the first round. Ace or position player. Just because we want an ace at 4 doesn't mean there is one there. I wanted to win the lottery when it was close to 600 million but that didn't happen. Scouts make a board and then the front office picks who is the best player. Does it always work? Heck no. That's why you have to hold your scouts responsible.

Crawfish boxes ( Astros SB Nation blog) released an article named Where have past aces been drafted which made for an interesting read. While their definition of ace is very strict there were a few things I found interesting. One of their bloggers did a study, don't have a link to the study, but it says college bats have the best rate-on-return for 1st rounders. While that isn't really surprising what is though is this fact: "my results actually showed that IF High School pitchers reached the major leagues, they were the most likely to perform at an elite level — even more likely than College Hitters, if I recall. The hang-up is that High School pitchers are the least likely to make the major leagues at all, and it’s not close." Chris Perry Link below: 2013 MLB Draft: Where have past ace pitchers been drafted? - The Crawfish Boxes

Only time will tell but A LOT of experts are hearing the Twins love Stewart. Christopher Crawford said he heard the Twin's higher ups are infatuated by him. From Mr.Callis' chat: Twins have been linked a ton to Kohl Stewart in various mock drafts. Is this due to industry knowledge that they like him a lot, or because they "should" take him there? Jim Callis: Both.