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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Good point. I know Walters is probably around ML minimum, but, are we looking at a record-setting 5 man SP AAA (temporary) payroll if this comes to fruition in July?
  2. jokin
    Absolutely spot on. 4 man rotation is basically a fait accompli, yanking everyone but Diamond out is already pretty much happening, why not just make it "the plan"? I wonder if someone can do the research. I would guess that the pitching discrepancy gap between the starters and bullpen performance numbers might be near the worst of any team all-time.
  3. jokin
    The UZR/150 ratings for 2B for 2011-12 have Lexi coming it at 9th overall. Flawed stat as it may be with smaller samples and subjectivity issues, Casilla is even doing better this year, at or near the top for all 2B. Lexi usually has a couple streaks with the bat each year, still waiting on them to happen in 2012. Although he still reminds us of his occasional Lexy-istic play, his head-scratching, bonehead plays in the field are way down over historic norms and his spectacular plays are more pleasantly frequent. If he ever had trade value for someone looking for a cheap glove that can turn the DP at a high rate, this would be the year.
  4. jokin
    I would like to add, that the Rochester SP lineup is going to look quite impressive this July. Besides, Hendriks and Blackburn, add Pavano and now, probably Duensing for likely upcoming multiple rehab assignments
  5. jokin
    I like the thought of Thielbar getting a shot, too. The way this season is going, he might be the last man standing for a possible SP spot duty role. Still, Fuentes offers little downside with a boatload of experience to help stabilize this pitching staff and a nice potential trading chip if he returns closer to career norms (he pitched at or above those earlier this season at Oakland).
  6. jokin
    Casey Fien....Jeff Gray.....Kyle Waldrop......Cole DeVries....Pick up a proven veteran on the cheap. Chance to stabilize the staff some more with a former Twin, to boot....Possible trade chip or sweetener somewhere down the road.....Emergency pitching management if/when Duensing goes down, as we effectively are looking at a de facto switch to a full-time bullpen mode pitching staff, sans Jeff Diamond...Need I go on?
  7. jokin
    You mean, Casey Fien's spot? Jeff Gray's spot?
  8. jokin
    Sorry if this was posted elsewhere. Given the prospect that DFAd Brian Fuentes might become available at virtually no cost, what would be the downside in signing him if he were to fall into the Twins laps?
  9. jokin
    Who didn't? Plouffe appears to have found a home. Did you see his DP play on Cabrera last night? No more "happy feet" or throws from shortstop 10 feet over the first baseman's head. You're right about Valencia, a corner IF guy or platoon RFer are his only options. Given who has established themselves for the near term in LF and 3B, unless something opens up in right or at first, his window is closing rapidly.
  10. jokin
    Could be one of the last chances for Casilla to impress another team. If I were Detroit, I'd trade for Casilla in a heartbeat. Santiago and Raburn are absolute butchers in the MI and Peralta is pedestrian at SS, by comparison, on the defensive side, Casilla would look like Joe Morgan. It's not a news flash to anyone how awful the Tigers are in the field. Could the Twins get a trade as least as good as Young/Oliveros-Nelson?
  11. jokin
    The difference here is stringerbell is parsimoniously applying Occam's Razor and you are applying inductive reasoning according to Jim Carrey ("So you're telling me there's a chance?") But of course, that would make a Twins win all the sweeter....
  12. jokin
    Sorry for the skin-curdling. I have a strong feeling that you get "patronized" easily and enjoy back-patronization immensely. That BF Skinner did not revolutionize how the "science" of psychology is regarded, that today's psychologists haven't built the discipline on some of the foundations he established, to deny that many of those foundations are still the central focus of the discipline in college textbooks and to somehow suggest that Skinner is merely an aromatherapist is pure poppycock, and I think you know it ( probably more of your "making fun of me" by concocting ridiculous quotes that had no relevance to what I had said- yeah, solid evidence there, too). I guess it's official now, you've officially stated that the basic tenets of learning theory must all be thrown out because the discipline has evolved. And calling prose "sloppy and disingenuous" without evidence is, what would you call it, again? Disingenuous and sloppy.
  13. jokin
    The GB% number really stands out like a potential sore thumb. It is so far off his career norm, it's surprising more teams aren't putting on the Blue Jays-style shift for him. If more teams would do it, that might force Mauer to address this situation more readily. His current BABIP is 373 versus a career BABIP of 344. How many of Mauer's seeing-eye 5 bounce singles will begin to be fielded when more teams study Mauer's batting chart? His lucky BABIP should begin to regress back. Time for more line drives....the very recent eye test suggests that the LD rate is going up, or at least his swing is at a slightly higher trajectory. His strikeout rate is also going up even as his BA and OPS continue to climb, which hopefully indicates a more agressive approach than earlier in the season. I hope these are indicators for a glass half full scenario.
  14. jokin
    Why does the BA have to come down? If he increases his LD% closer to career norms I think his average can go higher. But there are 2 reasons why he couldn't keep it up- his health and a possible reconfiguration of the roster (ie, trading of Span and/or someone else, Mauer failing to adjust when moved to the 2 hole where he historically hasn't hit as well, Revere falling into a slump like last year, prolonged slumps or injuries by whoever else bats in front of, or behind him in the order). That's the glass half empty perspective anyway.
  15. jokin
    Wow. Using the true Father of Psychology(it certainly wasn't the non-scientific Sigmund Freud), BF Skinner, to outline how certain stimuli are used to build, strengthen and maintain a desired outcome (call it poise if you're more comfortable with that, the Yankess used "winning attitude") and still "patronizing" and not "taken seriously". Okay..... I don't recall where I used either of the quotes you attribute to me, as neither of those quotes have anything to do with my point. Having said that in regards at meeting the other side half way, I am fully in favor of using statistical analysis, it is a tool but it just shouldn't be a bible. Human behavior can never likely be fully quantified.
  16. jokin
    Absolutish and missing-the-point arguments.
  17. jokin
    The Vegas odds put the Tigers chances at winning the AL at 7/1, compared to the White Sox at 12/1 and the Indians at 14/1. The Tigers are drawing in the most fan bets right now, so you are on to something here. Berry has been huge, especially against righties, Dirks is soon to be back and Avila and Jackson just got back. There was even talk that Martinez might be in the mix in September. I think there is a big run coming, possibly a steamroll if they can figure out the pitching situation and possibly pick up another arm or two this month.
  18. jokin
    Memo to: Chairman Cdog From: Committe member peon For your (not-so-)Immediate Attention. Adding worse/worst to the Twins Daily Grammar Committee's to-do list....
  19. jokin
    Because you said so....OK then! Helpful response to the discussion...or not.....
  20. jokin
    Sorry if that's what you inferred, it was not the intention. Having said that, if I am living in 50000 BC, I will probably consult the mammoth and sabre-tooth tiger hunters on successful techniques and strategies for staying alive before I will the tribal cook or storage clerk.
  21. jokin
    No one said anything about uniqueness to sport, quite the opposite. It's a trait that has survival value.
  22. jokin
    I believe Mauer was biologically pre-determined to bat in the 2 spot.
  23. jokin
    Finally, a voice of reason. What's that they say about lies, damned lies and statistics? Our human survival is set up on the concept that perfect uniformity and efficiency is a bad thing through the value of DNA recombination, wherein the more random the gene rearrangement, the stronger the offspring, and in turn, the species, are against biological and environmental threats.
  24. jokin
    That's the usual response from someone who didn't.
  25. jokin
    "No one", just because you said so? I don't think so. Just because something is admittedly difficult to quantiy, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Since Steinbrenner awoke the Yankees from their slumber years with CBS, the year-to-year expectations are simple- winning the World Series. These are expectations that were built into the culture of the organization. Their actions, in turn awoke the Red Sox from their slumber. In terms of the psychology of the breeding of the expectations of this culture, ie, a "winning mindset", this is called operant conditioning (OC). OC works through a set of reinforcers- stimuli that increase and/or strengthen the likelihood of the desired response. There are 4 types of reinforcement, they are all used by the Yankees to get that desired response: Positive and Negative Reinforcement, Punishment and Extinction. For Mariano Rivera, Positive Reinforcement was all that was needed, for Kyle Farnsworth (who had all the tools that Rivera had), none of them worked, up to and including the possibility of Extinction- he was gone.
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