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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Skeptics could say you have to account for the inning, the exact plate appearance taking place, the exact speed of the runners on base, the profile of a batter based on the time of day, the angle of the pitcher's arm.... you could go on and on. There's a reasonable sample size far before that where those effects are extremely minimal. Do you believe the best framers could get 2 more strikes a game than the worst framers? If so, what's that worth in runs over the course of 162 games?
  2. jay
    Plenty of quotes and stories out there about going for it and stretching the payroll in 2011. They sure make it sound like they were above their 50-52% number that year, whatever that number actually was. Here's one such article talking about it: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Like_it_or_not_scaling_back_payroll_is_right_move_for_Twins010512
  3. jay
    Nolasco to the Dodgers Crawford to the Twins Hamels to the Twins Arcia to the Phillies Mid-level prospect from Twins to Phillies Mid-level prospect from Dodgers to Phillies
  4. jay
    I could see as high as 90 if the right deal is available to add a multi-year SP via trade. *fingers crossed*
  5. jay
    What do people think the payroll (right, wrong or indifferent) will be next year? Put me down for $80M.
  6. jay
    Ooh, I love these. It's like a teaser for the Offseason Handbook.
  7. jay
    Yep, missed that one. My view would amend it to say "Higher payroll doesn't highly correlate to more wins."
  8. jay
    My reading comprehension skills could be declining, but I haven't seen a single one of those arguments made. I've tried to make a few points here, which I'll recap, and then be done with this one: 1 - A fan-determined expectation of the payroll level for any given season based off a quote and revenue projections is extremely flawed. 2 - Payroll can influence your odds of success, but it isn't nearly as big of a factor as many fans portray it to be. Your freakonomics article nails it. 17% percent...
  9. jay
    You're arguing against something that hasn't been said. No one said there is NO correlation. The facts show the correlation isn't all that strong.
  10. jay
    It would appear some teams that didn't support your point were left off the list of playoff teams. The original question was whether or not payroll could influence the product on the field. Obviously, yes, to some extent. However, as the research in the linked articles and the full list of playoffs teams from this year shows... it's not nearly as big of an influence as many fans make it out to be.
  11. jay
    If you don't like the run values assigned to framing, place your own value on the difference of an extra 340 strikes over the course of this season between Lucroy and the combo of Suzuki+Pinto. Their statistical model to calculate the "predicted strikes" accounts for just about every variable you can think of, as outlined in the article I linked earlier. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667331 Does it seem crazy to think the best framer could get an extra 2 strikes a game compared to some of the worst? It doesn't to me. Their numbers call that difference 40 runs over the season. That's saving one run every four games based on getting 2 extra strikes in every game. How many times would one more strike in a key spot prevent a huge inning? It doesn't seem all that crazy either...
  12. jay
    If the 10 for 25 is what convinces you this is inaccurate, I get the perception there isn't much of a chance you'd believe anything different regardless of the immense amount of statistical research with far more significance than 10 for 25.
  13. jay
    More so in the past: http://www.hardballtimes.com/money-and-wins/ Less so in the more recent past: http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140825-money-can-t-buy-success-for-mlb-teams-anymore.ece http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/08/26/these-days-the-correlation-between-payroll-and-winning-is-historically-weak/
  14. jay
    Definitely. The unfortunate part there is that neither you, nor I, will be a Tigers fan anytime soon. Not to feed the fury, but their owner paid for 60%+ of Comerica when it was built. Their franchise is clearly in the significant minority of finance ignorance.
  15. jay
    I'd love to take that deal, but even Yankees fans don't think their team spends enough payroll. It's an area that is impossible to appease all. You're absolutely right that the Twins haven't helped themselves through their various statements.
  16. jay
    Documented based on an unverifiable Forbes number * .52? It can't possibly be that simple. Even the Forbes numbers have a footnote... "2. Net of stadium revenues used for debt payments." What other footnotes, revenues, costs or adjustments might exist? Sorry, but sound financial analysis requires a lot more information in my eyes.
  17. jay
    If you believe in rollover dollars, do you believe there's ever been a payroll that exceed 52%? What's the exact timeframe in which any rollover dollars, either excess or shortage, have to be spent or recovered?
  18. jay
    We fundamentally won't ever see eye-to-eye on how to use quotes and the limited information available to us on the internet. We've mutually established that in the past. Do I think revenue estimates can be accurate within the 10's of millions? Sure, but that leaves a lot of room for error and interpretation. Compound that with the fact that we don't and won't ever know how the Twins adjust that number -- budgetary periods, revenue sharing, variations in amateur acquisition costs, etc, etc, etc -- and I fail to see where this fan analysis can give us an accurate number.
  19. jay
    If we believe in the 50-52% and we also believe the Twins will have a harder time selling tickets next year, why would we expect payroll to increase?
  20. jay
    Agreed. In this case, it might be the best of both worlds. Mauer at 1B puts Vargas at DH and Arcia in the OF. Who would be the better OF defender -- Mauer or Arcia? My vote is Mauer.
  21. jay
    The concrete concepts of math and the abstract concepts of finance/accounting should not be confused with each other. 10 different finance experts will get you 10 different numbers. Surely, despite public quotes that simplify it, it's not as simple as .5*(previous or current year gross revenues).
  22. jay
    I know math, too. Thanks. I don't know the inner workings of how the Twins calculate their revenues and set budgets across their operation, even with some articles that try to make an educated guess at what the revenues are. Trying to derive what I think their payroll should be based off a quote and the limited information we have is an exercise in futility. Trying to convince other people that number is right is somewhere further past that.
  23. jay
    When the Twins say they will spend 50-52% of revenues on payroll, we believe them. When the Twins say they are spending 50-52% of revenues on payroll, we don't believe them.
  24. jay
    Nailed it. He's a better athlete than any of them. I'm not convinced Joe has to move. I just want it to be on the table as a readily available option if it's best for the team.
  25. jay
    What's best for Joe Mauer isn't always what's best for the team. He'd almost have to be a better OF defender than Willingham was and I'd argue better than Arcia. Obviously better than Vargas or Pinto. If Joe has to play 1B, you're looking at forcing a corner OF alignment of Arcia and either Plouffe or Sano.
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