Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

beckmt

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,503

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by beckmt

  1. beckmt
    1.  Extend Buxton.  If we could get the base done (13  -15 million range), I would urge Jim Pohlad to step and and ok the incentives to make it work.   I am guessing this may be up to  10 million a year.  With Buxton's WAR return, this should be done.  Second issue is that most articles I have read from links on other sites, want Buxton for decent but underwhelming returns, That would be a major mistake. 
    2.  Donaldson will not bring enough back in a trade, and the Twins would have to eat a fair amount of money (10 - 15 million) to bring back much of anything or package him with another asset we would probably not like to lose.  I see him staying here. 
    3.  Much as I dislike it, we need pitching.  That means sending either Garver or Jeffers with another asset or two, to acquire a mid level starter from either Oakland or Miami.  There may be another club to deal with, I know Oakland does not need a catcher, but several clubs do.
    4.  As stated elsewhere Kepler has little value at this time, he will be here unless needed as a sweetner to make a deal for pitching happen. 
    5. I seem to value Arraez more than most, so will run with him for another year, unless bowled over with an offer.
     
    Let's start
    Catchers
    Probably Garver (Jeffers goes in the Miami deal) Rortvedt  Possibly a pickup if FA for backup
    1B/DH Sano/Kirloff
    2B  Polonco/ Arreaz
    SS  FA/ Gordon
    3B  Donaldson, Miranda
    OF  Buxton, Kepler, Laurach, Celstino or Rooker (other one in St. Paul to start)
    Starting Pitching
    Pickup in deal for a catcher(Hopefully one from Miami)
    Ober, Ryan, Pineda (resign), Winder (might as well use his bullets here)
    Relievers
    Rodgers, Alcala, Duffey, Minaya, Thielbar, Moran,  Garza Jr. (maybe Cano,  this group will change as the year goes on)
     
    Rest of 40 man
    one of  Celstino or rooker, Balazovich, Duran, Jax or Garza, Jr, Strotman, may Dobnak (if not traded), Maeda, possibly Gant (but not sold on him as I believe he has to make the 26 or be lost). 
    Adds 
    enlow, Sands, Palacios, Severino
    That comes to 37 - 38 by my count and leaves several openings and possible room for other moves or a more major trade. 
    If nothing changes there will be 2 more adds before the rule 5 and a lot of shuffling after.   Feel this gives us our best chance for next year without sacrificing the future.  Expect Duran or Balazovich to be up next year (possibly Cano or other relievers).  
    This team should be competitive but would need a major starting pitching upgrade to take on the White Sox.  I would look at Rodon as a possibility to sign as an FA (might not be as expensive and could be 2 - 4 year term.  with fade in second half, might not be issued a QO from Chicago.  Stroman of the Mets would be another candidate, but would be more money. 
    Do not want any over 30 filler as this will just block spots from youngsters we need to look at next year. 
    Several of you might disagree with the drops, I have decided to give Jax or Garza Jr. or Gant, to be a bulk pitcher in the long relief/mop role, with the chance it could become something bigger.  They probably have 1/2 season to prove they belong before Duran, Balazovich, Sands and others start arriving.  Maybe even Varland.  I am not a great fan of using pitchers bullets in the minors when they could help the major league club. 
    Let the fun begin.
  2. beckmt
    For those that have not noticed the season is quickly slipping away and a few things need to be done now to try and right the ship.
    If this season goes off the rails the Twins could be forced to sell Berrios and Buxton (whose contracts both end after 2022) for pennies on the dollar. Both could decide to go to winning teams on the coast for mega contracts, with the Twins maybe only able to retain Buxton by paying him Trout money.
    1. Fire Rocco and bring Rowson in as manager/hitting coach, This is usually the first step, but curious managing decisions in extras have forced this move.
    2. Send out some of the lower half of the bullpen, Thielbar for one needs to go to the minors and maybe a few more and bring up some of the flamethrowers, even if they can't find the strike zone all the time. It is hard to hit high heat for most major leaguers. Law who was requested by a few does not fit my bill, Chambers (who may be too far away and his ilk are more like it).
    3. Start looking for deals for players like Rooker and others to second division rebuilding clubs with a eye on getting good relievers/closer types in return (others take the 15 - 30 prospects (at least some of them)).
    4. Consider trading Kepler (whose contract should be desirable to even cheap ballclubs to make room for Laurach), he looks like the best contact/power hitter to me.
  3. beckmt

    My 2020 Twins Blueprint

    By beckmt,

    First I non-tender Cron, tough decision, but have too many moving parts to keep him.
    This leaves me with
    C - Garver
    1B - Sano
    2B - Arreaz
    ss - Polonco
    3B - Gonzalez
    LF - Rosario
    CF - Buxton
    RF - Kepler
    DH - Cruz
     
    Of - Cave
    OF - Wade
    UTL - Adrianza
    C - Like the thought of signing Maldenado for about $3
     
    This should give me the flexibility in case Gordon is ready which in a lot of other bloggers posts would cause me to either lose him or trade him for little value.
    This should also leave me with a lot of payroll space for pitching staff upgrades.
    Extend Berrios if possible 5 years/$75 (8,12, 16, 19, 20)
    Would like to also extend Buxton, but have little idea what it would take. Maybe something on the lines of Berrios, but a lot more risk say 5/80
     
    Pitching
    Sign Cole 7/260 (40,40,40,35,35,35,35) opt out after 3.
    Sign Oderizzi 3/51 (predicted by mlbtraderumors)
    Sign Pineda 3/36
     
    Starters
    Cole
    Berrios
    Oderizzi
    Pineda
    Dobnak, Thrope, others
     
    Bullpen
    Rogers
    Romo 1/3
    May
    Duffy
    Will Harris 2/10
    Littell
    Long man rotation with Rochester
    LR (Dierkman, Watson)
     
    This should do it, payroll will be a higher than maybe the Twins will go, but the window is open, let's also kick in the door. You can't win without front line starting pitching. Maybe having someone above Berrios will help and I think Twins will get some better pitching from our minor leagues starting in 2021. This may let us trade a starter and some of our surplus coming up for a better starter.
    Also considers Betcenes, but do not have a feel for how he will return from injury and what he will cost.
  4. beckmt
    As has been stated before there was a long thread on how the Bryon Buxton September callup was handled. This is to be a different look with regards to damage to the long term franchise.
    1. Case 1 Texas and Profar.
    Texas did a service time saving manipulation of Profar's time. This worked out very badly for Texas. (Side note Profar's agent is Boras so not all of this may be relevant). The long term result was that went after 2017 or 2018 when Texas tried to get an extension with Profar, the Texas front office was told not to bother without paying market rate or above market rate (my guess based on what happened here). This led to the trade of Profar to the A's for not what I would consider a market rate deal for Texas. Profar is in the same category as Buxton as he was rated in the top 5 prospect list for 2 years running at one time. Without the extension given Texas's time line they were forced to take what they could get (given Profar would be a free agent before Texas became relevant again).
    How does this affect Buxton? The Twins do not look as if they are actively planning to compete without a bit of the luck factor in 2019. There are two possible outcomes here: Buxton plays OK this year breaks out next year and hits his maximum trade value about the time the Twins expect to become relevant (2020 - 2024). Twins are then faced with the issue of (do you trade a potential superstar when you are ready to compete or do you hold on to compete and lose Buxton in 2 years for a compensation draft pick).
    Then there is the issue of the FO talking about sustainability. That would mean looking at trading Buxton at this time when the best Twins talent is years is arriving and creating issues in the clubhouse and ongoing for the Twins keeping players who could be the face of the franchise. Kyle Gibson (the union rep), has already weighed in by commenting he thought Buxton should have been brought up. This leads to 2 more issues:
    1. Having problems with keeping players who are getting good or watching them walk after 6 years. Or being forced to trade them (issue with this is you are dealing with other GM's who on the free spending teams will give you a number of their lessor 4 - 15 type prospects, but put there top prospects off limits in deals like this). This rational being that in 1 - 2 years they could sign them without giving up prospects.
    2. Team reputation: Unless you pay more money than anyone else will offer, you will not get good FA's to come here. This leaves you with taking chances or having to sign players with warts (bad clubhouse personalites, lack of hustle, and me first types). You will never win big with these types.
    Option 2: If you want to play hardball and Buxton plays into your hands by having a bad spring you could send him to Rochester and leave him for the year. If you as the FO are convinced he is not going to stay here, this might be the winning option. It will now align Buxton with the new upcoming core and you could get 2 - 3 years from Buxton when the Twins might be really good.
    Downside: There is this pesky thing called the CBA, this would certainly be noted by the union (especially if Buxton did well in Rochester and was not called up). It would certainly complicate things and might lead to the union holding out for shortened club control be free agency as small and mid market clubs would take note and try to group talent into possible windows. Extreme case is that it might be litigated based on deliberate manipulations with the goal of bringing all sports into a much changed employee - employer relationship (this might be done by dissolving the sports unions).
    2. The Kris Bryant - Chicago Cubs case.
    This is more of the common case where the Cubs sent Bryant down at the start of the season to gain an extra year of control over him (even though Kris Bryant was clearly major league ready). What this has done to the Cubs is that there is almost no chance he will resign with the Cubs unless they offer more than any other club. Cubs might, but are not guaranteed to do that. Or the relationship may be so far south Cubs would have to do a big overpay to keep him.
    Where does thing affect Buxton?
    1. It means that the union will almost certainly want changes to the CBA in this area. This could be a big sticking point (if the union decides to exist). This could lead to a nasty strike(which might last for a long time into the season before being settled), or major changes to the length of team control (most of which I have seen is about 4 years). This would in the long run kill the small market teams from being competitive for any length or period of time).
    2. Buxton could develop a bad or me first attitude (this would be very bad for clubhouse chemistry) and could try and force his way out early than the Twins would want.
  5. beckmt

    Any interest in Tulo

    By beckmt,

    Blue Jays released him today, so Twins would only have to pay the major league minimum. Was great at one time, maybe could bounce back.
    I see him as high reward very low risk.
    What to the rest of you think.
  6. beckmt
    According to MLbtraderumors, the Yankees and Mariners have annouced a trade with James Paxton going to New York and Justus Sheffield and two other minor leaguers going to the Mariners.
    This seems to set up that only about 7 teams intend to compete next year with all the rest in reset or rebuild mode.
    Good news is that the Yankees will probably only sign one more starter, so some ot the competiton will be less, bad news is that the Yankees will be a very good to great ballclub next year.
    This seems to be more of a reset for Seattle to line up a run a couple of years later.
    Final analysis will depend on Paxton's health over the next two years and whether Justus Sheffield is as good as advertised.
    Interesting first piece to the offseason.
  7. beckmt
    This is more a wish list, but will show how the Twins can proceed if they decide to spend the money.
     
    Mauer Retires
    Many of the lower end 40 man list is released or not offered contracts.
     
    Signings
    Corbin 5/110
    Ryu or Evoldi 4/60 - 70
    Herrera - 3/42
    One or two more RP types mid range 2/15 each
     
    Oderizzi traded probably would have to absorb part of contract - other choice would be Oderizzi + Kepler for a decent starter and sign AJ Pollock 5/100 - 110. (This also protects the Twins against Buxton not making it).
     
    Sign a second baseman or SS or a 1 - 2 year contract until Lewis arrives (or another middle infielder). 2/12 - 14
     
    This gives the Twins a decent starting lineup plus pitching
     
    Catchers - Castro, Garver
    1B Austin
    2B FA or Polonco
    SS Polonco or FA
    3B - Sano
    OF Rosario, Pollock, Cave or Rosario, Buxton, Pollock
     
    Bench Garver Austiddo, Cave or Buxton, Adrianza
     
    Pitching
    SP Berrios, Gibson, Corbin, Ryu or Evoldi, Trade or a winner of spring training battle
    RP May, Rogers, Herrera, Hildenberger, FA1, FA2, Drake or loser of young starting pitching battle
     
    Payroll Depending on extention signings around $130 - $150 million (talking of adding 60 - 80 million before arbitration signings)
     
    Have at it.
  8. beckmt
    I have outlined in an earlier post how the Twins stack up with a minimalistic approach to next year. This is my attempt to show what will happen with a mid range payroll - looking in the neighborhood of $100 million.
    Departures:
    Mauer - retired
    Santana and Morrison - bought out $2,000,000 total
    Not offered contracts - Forsythe, Petit, Magill, Belisie, Slegers, Busnetiz, Duffey, Gimmenez, Gaterol - This should clean up a lot of 40 man space. It is possible some of these might be retained and see if they can be traded, most have little or no value.
    Reenstated to the 40 man
    Castro, Mejia
    Added to 40 man
    Thrope, Gordon, Wade - they are a couple more that may be close Jay is the one I am questioning, but am almost sure a bad team would take him in the rule 5 if not added.
    Try to group and trade to a rebuilding club for a better starter - Gonsalves, Littlel, Moya, Curtiss
    Possible others not offered a contract Field and Grossman
     
    Roster
    Catcher - Castro
    Inf - Sano, Polonco, Austin, FA either SS or 2B spend around $10 million a year (this means we are taking from close to the top of the pile (after many)
    Outfield - Rosario, Buxton, Kepler
    Bench - Garver, Autudillo, Cave, Grossman, Adrianza
    DH - rotation of non starters
     
    Spend for players - around $30 million $35 million if Twins can sign Rosario to a longer term contract (expected for this scenario).
     
    Starting Pitching - Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Oderizzi, Stewart/Fa/Romero - spend $32 million counting $8 million for year 1 of multi year Berrios contract. Not counting trade or FA which could push this to around $45 million
    Relief Pitching - May, Rogers, Hildenberger, Drake, Mejia, FA1, FA2 spend $30 million - counting at least 1 top end FA reliever and a second very good 2nd tier reliever.
     
    This is not counting trades - expecting more than 1 to send some depth pieces with potential to a rebuilding club for a #3 type starter or a very good reliever who will not be needed on a rebuilding club.
     
    I am expecting Twins will pick this path - I may be an optimist.
  9. beckmt
    As the Twins 2018 season ends - this is my attempt to prodict what the Twins will do for 2019.
    Assumptions:
    1. Joe Mauer retires
    2. The FO decides the Twins are too far away to put a lot of money into next year.
    3. With Gibson, Pineda, and Ordrizzi all having expiring contracts at the end of next year Twins decide to see what they have coming up, rather than throwing a lot of extra money into trying to catch lightning in a bottle and Cleveland at the same time.
     
    40 man roster:
    Twins let a number of players depart. Belise, Slegers, Morrison, Forsythe, McGill, Pettit, Gimminez, Granite, Gratarol This should leave plenty of room to move pieces around as I now have 10 openings on the 40 man.
    Adds from 60 day DL Mejia, Pineda
    Adds not on 40 man. Thrope, Wade, Gordon (they may be others I have missed)
     
    Free agents: One mid level or 4/5 type to compete for a starter job, 1 significant FA (upper range 3/36 range) reliever, 1 - 2 mid level relievers to compete for jobs next year. One FA to play MI on a 1 - 2 year contract or maybe Escobar (this may take 3/30 type money give or take).
    Other choice would be to send 1 - 3 of starting pitcher depth for a #3 type on a bad club with 2 - 3 years of control (Duffy - but this is just an example).
     
    This leaves us with:
    Starters: Berrios, Gibson, Pineda, Oderizzi, Stewart(or FA)
    Bullpen: FA1, FA2, May, Rodgers, Hildenberger, Drake, Reed
    Catcher: Castro
    Infield: Austin, Polonco, Sano, FA
    Outfield: Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave (Grossman, Wade)
    Utility: Adrianza, Garver, Astudillo
     
    Spend: Depends on whether Twins sign Berrios and/or Rosario to long term contracts and spend on FA pitching. My guess based on this roster would be in the $80 million range (less if no current players are extended).
     
    Other assumption is that Buxton makes the team (otherwise have room for both Grossman and Wade in this scenario.
    Have a desire to have players that can make a pitcher work and less swing and miss (they tend to strike out in key situations).
     
    Having stated this (have at it). Will hope to post a balanced and a higher spending assumption later this week.
  11. beckmt
    Lavalle article claims Hughes will be recalled to start Sunday, and the rest of the starters will pitch the 4 game series in NY.
    I wonder if Hildenburger gets optioned out or Twins cut their Rule 5 draft pick(which would have made this a very bad winter on FO moves for relief pitchers).
    I guess the big contract means they will have to look and see if Hughes has enough stuff to survive in the majors any more. Still given the Twins margin of error this year, hate to see games lost if Hughes cannot do it. Too few teams trying to win and most of them have decent clubs. Though at this time it looks like at most 8 clubs for the 5 postseason berths.
    TB, Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, KC, Texas, and Oakland look like non contenders at this time. And Toronto might be marginal.
  12. beckmt
    According to the Tampa Bay Times the Baseball players union has filed a grievance against teams for not spending their revenue sharing money. According to the rules, revenue sharing is supposed to be used to help clubs spend money on making their product better. This can be either major or minor leagues or other costs related to putting a better product on the field long term
    http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/02/27/players-union-files-grievance-vs-rays-3-other-teams-over-revenue-sharing-spending/
  13. beckmt

    Chargios placed on waivers

    By beckmt,

    According to Mlbtraderumors J.D. Chargios has been placed on waivers. Guess on the site was that they were trying to sneek him through while he is injuried. This comes from an update from the Pioneer Press.
  14. beckmt
    We have all seen the discontent from the players union and major league ballplayers about this offseason and a readjustment in front office thinking about player valuation.
    This has been coupled with 3 major spenders sitting out this offseason to reset the luxery tax committements and several clubs (low spending) going into rebuild mode. This has left a small number of teams as possible destinations for this years free agent crop and a remarkable price drop in the contracts the players have signed (against the mlbtraderumors early offseason estimates).
    After the 2021 season and the end of the current contract, I feel if this market continues we could be looking at the following issue items to avoid a strike from the players standpoint.
     
    1a. Minimum spending requirement for all major league teams (guessing this would be in the $90 - $100) million range to prevent total dumping and it could be higher.
    1b. Abolishing the salary cap and luxery tax
     
    Players would insist on one of the two above to loosen spending by teams
     
    2. Cutting original team control to 5 years maybe 4 with arbitration in year 3. This would have more players reaching free agency in their prime and increase players earning power within the prime years of their career.
     
    3. Cutting option years to 2 for minor leaguers and having minor league free agency after 5 years. This would prevent big money teams from stockpiling talent and using their AAA farm club as a rotating 40 man player roster.
     
    4. Raise the minimum major league wage to $1,000,000. This would allow players to make enough money even on a medium length career.
     
    5. Insist on a full system of draft for all players in the world. Set hard money limits as to which draft picks are paid how much (more of a pro football system). This will prevent the games major spending teams play to get picks to tell teams what they want to be paid and allowing teams to play the game of draft picks knowing what team they will probably play for. System is now that for a very good high school senior their representative telling teams what the player will sign for, allowing deals to be cut since they already know of a team that will pay the high school senior that amount, Twins did this game with Enlow this year.
     
    There may be more items, please discuss.
     
    We are seeing with the end of the steroid era, a return to where physical ability on midlevel players drops in the early 30's and most major league players never see a free agent payday. These above would help fix that issue in favor of the players.
     
    With the number of small and midmarket teams that struggle to compete on a yearly basis, I feel that some adjustment is needed to make it work. That being given you are never going to get a hard salary cap passed by the players. The players have to realize that they have to work for the good of all players, not just the major league players getting their way and dumping on the minor league players.
  16. beckmt

    Go big or go home

    By beckmt,

    Found two interesting articles today about direction. One stated that with 5 clubs already all in (Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Angels, and maybe even the Mariners ). There was the comment that most of the rest of the American league should be sellers as best expectation would a wild card spot and a quick exit.
    The second article was in the Tampa Bay newspaper today and suggested the Ray's should do a total rebuild. That means all players with value should be traded. Twins should be willing to trade prospects for some of Tampa Bay controlled assets, starting with asking what Archer would cost. Most of these deals will take place in the next few days, so let's get started.
  17. beckmt
    We have all seen the divide in posters here with the comments on which starters should be with the Twins. It is still early or midway in spring training and this article is not so much of that debate, but a question of how the Twins should approach the next 2 years.
     
    Starters: Only Santana and Hughes will have contracts into the 2019 season. The best crop of Free Agent pitchers will be on the market after the 2018 season. I feel that the Twins by that time need to know what holes in the rotation need to be filled. Given another article yesterday by Oldgoat_MN that showed the top 8 WAR teams for the starters all made the rotation this is a very vital area.
    Problem: I do not feel that any of the current starters can average 3 WAR a year, and the Twins at this time do not have an ace to raise the average. There is also the issue of Molitor wanting to be manager and his contract runs out at the end of this year.
    Solution: If you feel or want to give a number of the younger pitchers(Berrios, Gonsalves, Mejia, May) a chance, see what you can get for any starter but Santana the last week of spring training(clubs with pitching injuries will be looking). If you can get something of reason trade them, if not start the season with them and watch the market.
    Also give Molitor an extension if you feel this process is not fair to him. Do not agree with this, but you have to cut the cord to solve the problem.
     
    Bullpen: Weakest area of the team in my opinion at this time. Expect Kinzler to be the closer with Beilise, Breslow, Rogers, Chaigos, Pressley, Haley to be the rest with one spot TBD. Need to have stability here so do not see many youngsters up to start. By midseason hope performance and trades bring up several of the younger pitchers but this area is murky at best.
    Problem, No frontline closer, not a great shutdown pen with punchout ability.
    Solution: Maybe Perkins returns to health and is a factor, maybe Burdi and other of the young bullpen force there way up. See this as more of a season long process unless pen implodes.
    Catcher: Castro is a given, Garver should start at AAA for atbats. Would prefer Murphy up, with Giminez in AAA if Murphy fails again.
    Problem Castro is here for 3 years no clear line after.
    Solution: One of Garver or Murphy is able to step up to become the starter and the kid the Twins drafted last year from Wisconsin is ready a year or two after that.
     
    Infield. Current time it is Mauer, Dozier, Polonco, and Sano. 2019 it could be Mauer(at a very reduced price, if at all),otherwise Park or Vargas, Dozier or Polonco if Dozier traded or not resigned, Polonco or Gordon, and Sano(because I do not see a thirdbase replacement in 2 years, with Polonco or TBD as the utility infielder.
    Problem: Do you resign Dozier, is Gordon the real deal, what to do with Mauer.
    Solution: Trade Dozier at midseason if you are convinced that Gordon is for real. Tell Mauer at the end of his contract, that Jake cannot be considered for manager if Joe is playing and encourage his retirement. Move Sano to first if Park and Vargas cannot fill the hole. You may have to find a stopgap 3rd base replacement in this line. Maybe Goodrum short term.
     
    Outfield: The one area of strength. No problems or solutions here unless either Rosario or Kepler do not pan out. Granite or pickup can be the 4th outfielder for a couple of years.
     
    Notes: Short term until about 2020 or 2021 this team should be cheap. Signing pitchers to larger contracts will not be a payroll issue short term.
    Solution is to go young over the next year, if Molitor does not handle the younger players or does not like this line, fire him(probably should anyway). This gives you the best chance to compete by 2019 and on from there. If you do not give you position players some hope, you will have a issue resigning without overpays, because everyone likes to play on a winner.
  18. beckmt
    According to some scouts according to The Score, Luis Robert from Cuba is supposed to be the 'Best Player on the Plant'. He is planning to become available before July 2 where multiple clubs, including those who will be barred for signing players for more the $300,000 could bid on him. Multiple teams have been linked to him, http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/scout-cuban-prospect-robert-best-player-on-the-planet/ar-AAnkXkm?li=AAn4eAA&ocid=spartandhp
    Would it be worthwhile for the Twins to go after him? The Twins have been linked to, and expected to sign one of the two(Rays are going to sign the other). Wander Franco and Jelfrey Marte. This comes from mlbtraderumors yesterday, attributed to Baseball America. The signing would cost the Twins the shortstop, and will have some limitations down the road.
     
    Twins already have a shortstop considered to be very good in the system(Wander Javier), but Robert is a 1B player and almost certainly be ready when Mauer leaves after 2018(if not sooner). Twins also have a glut(very unusual)of middle infield talent, with only one(Diaz) 1B talent coming in the next few years.
     
    Twins need pitching help more, so losing the ability to sign front line international players for two years could be harmful, but if Robert is going to be a superstar, would it be worthwhile?
  19. beckmt
    Twins have proven by now they are going nowhere this year, so what is the plan for the GM going forward.
    Most of the posts have suggested getting rid of players that will bring little in return, Willingham, Morales, Correria, etc. These players will bring at most a B- or C prospect and will be looked at a salary clearing.
    1. Twins look like they have a surplus of 2B prospects coming so we make Brian Dozier available to the highest bidder. He could easily bring a top 10 prospect or 2 from any contending team needing an improvement at 2B and is cost controlled to some extent making clubs like KC or TB and others more likely to enter the bidding. He is the best chance for the Twins to maximize the return on a player.
    2. Make Glen Perkins available (this one hurts, he is from Minnesota and wants to be here, so may not be the best move). There are several contending clubs that need bullpen help badly(Detroit for one). Take advantage of them while there needs are high.
     
    3. Trade Trevor Plouffe if possible(this one depends on the return, but several contenders lack major league third basemen and you could still get a decent chance prospect or three from teams lower level (A+ ball and lower).
     
    This may sound like give up and move the content date out a year or two, but my viewpoint is now the earliest the Twins can realistically content is 2017 and Things need to be built to that point of time.
     
    Start the brickbats.
  20. beckmt
    According to a post I saw yesterday on mlbtraderumors the Yankees were quoted as saying money was no object to them in the international market.
    Teams are given a set amount to spend in the international market and then a 100% luxury tax kicks in along with other penalties. The Yankees have I believe somewhere around 2 million to spend and they are talking in the range of 12-15 million not including the luxury tax.
    Do the small market and mid market teams need to stand up and make this a hard cap or insist on a draft for the international market. If the Yankee's plan is allowed, this cap has become just a joke. The big market teams will sign who they want and drive the prices up on the better players and leave only the crumbs for the mid and small market teams.
    Should be an interesting ride as the Cubs did something similar last year.
    What should the Twins response be, just spend the money if they feel the player is worthwhile and take gambles to drive up the price on the rest, or join the mid and smaller market teams to close this loophole.
    This loophole may close if there is an international player draft coming.
  21. beckmt
    With 2013 being lost and 2014 not looking good for the start, this is my plan, on a limited payroll, est $80-$90 million(dueable with extra $25 million Twins will get next year for TV/radio rights) to try and put a competitive team on the field and sell seats to the fans.
    1. Upgrade starting pitching staff. Sign if possible Josh Johnson and Tim Lincecum to contracts. Johnson should be a one year with option at about $7 millions. Lincecum may need 3 years for about $15 million a year to get it done. This assumes Giants do not make a qualifying offer.
    1. Johnson
    2. Corrira
    3. Deduno
    4. Lincecum or other upper level FA
    5. Albers
     
    This leaves Diamond, Worley (Who could take Pressley's spot in the bullpen) at AAA for replacements. Do not view Hendriks as a major league pitcher.
     
    2. Reorgainize bullpen. Roenicke will probably be gone, Tonkin should get a look, Pressley should be back in AAA unless Twins decide he is bullpen only.
    Bullpen will consist of
    1. Perkins
    2. Burton
    3. Fien
    4. Thielbar
    5. Swarzak
    6. Duensing (unless traded, which should be looked at). His arbitration number may be higher than he is worth)
    7. Pressley if Twins decide he is worth it (I would put him at AAA and give him a shot at starting) I would use an FA or rule 5 draft pick here
     
    Catching. This is the big question as it affects all the other positions. My guess is that Mauer will catch some, but the next concussion could end that.
    1. Mauer
    2. Doumit
    3. Herrmann
    Pinto will start it AAA, If he forces his way on the roster Doumit could be traded, at this time think this would be selling low.
     
    Infield
    1B Collobella, Parmelee, Mauer - do not see Morneau back too much money needed for pitching and Mauer's concussion has changed the diametics.
    2B Dozier
    SS Florimon
    3B Plouffe - Sano should replace about midyear. This would push Plouffe to a Utility/platoon role against lefties
    Utility Escobar
    Outfield
    1. Arcia
    2. Non catcher/bench of Herrmann or Doumit
    3. Sign Grady Sizemore to an incentive laden contract. Hopefully he will be healthy by late fall. Chance to have someone good at a reasonable price. 1 Year 3-4 million with incentives to earn a lot more. With an option year.
    4. Mastro
    That is 2014 12 pitchers, 3 catchers, 5 infielders, 4 outfielders and one undetermined DH or a Rochester addition next year (Richerson, Romero).
     
    Let me know your comments.
  22. beckmt
    There are a number of Twins prospects from the upper level of the farm system that will need to produce the spring and summer or risk the chance of being left behind or needing a different orgainization to get to the major leagues in because of the wealth of talent the Twins have coming.
     
    1. Parmelee. He has the best chance of making it and also because of expectations the best chance of failure. His current shelve life is about 1/2 a season, because at that time the Twins will have 2 major decisions to make
    1a. What to do with Arcia/Hicks/Benson because one of them is ready to play at the major league level(if not both).
    1b. Morneau has come back to close to form and needs to be extended/traded based on Parmelee's output.
     
    2. Benson. Nice ballplayer whose drop in the prospect rankings show how far the Twins farm system has come. If he does not show progress at the major league level this season, he risks being overtaken by Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, Roberts, Kepler for starters as Twins outfielders. My guess on Benson is that he does not make enough contact and is added to a package for more young pitching at midseaon or after the end of the baseball season.
     
    3. Henricks. Liam Henricks has the most upside of any young Twins #4 or #5 starter type. He needs to put it together this year at the major league level or risk the Twins will fill out the starting staff from the pitchers aquired in trades this winter(Myers and May) or some of the other Twin young pitchers (Herman, Wimmers, Deduno,DeVires) to name a few. Once on that slippery slope he will have to prove himself better than the other options the Twins have. That will not be easy. AAA is littered with players who are great at AAA and do not have the stuff to produce at the major league level.
     
    4. Dozier. Brian probably has all of this year to prove he belongs at the major league level. Failure to do so will probably label him as a utility infielder or a AAA player. Twins have Santana, Rosario, and Michael a year or two away. Twins also have the issue that by 2014 or 2015 they will be ready to step up to the next level and contend, so if middle infield spots are not taken, they may be more willing to spend money to bring in a proven player to fill the need.
     
    5. Do not feel that either Floriman or Escobar will be more that a utility player here in two years. That also factors into how Dozier will have to claim a job or find a new home as both of Floriman and Escobar will probably never be high price players, so nice utility fits at a cheap cost.
  23. beckmt
    Latest post on mlbtraderumors references an article by LaVelle E. Neal III citing an anonymous source as the Twins have signed Phil Hughes. This is supposed to be a 3/24 contract. If this is correct it is good news. I would rather have a different pitcher, but this signing cannot hurt. Decent price for a pitcher. TR at least is getting decent value for Poland's money.
×
×
  • Create New...