twinsfanstreif
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Everything posted by twinsfanstreif
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I would totally be unhappy with Zumaya in his prime, first he was a reliever, we should get a starter with #5, secondly Zumaya was very hitable even with his 100+ FB, he had no movement and mlb hitters could pick it up. Zumaya was a set up guy who was always injured, that would be an awful pick
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The difference between #5 and #8 is $660,000, the difference between #3 and #5 is almost $2 million and $2 million more for #1 overall, if he believes he can go back to college and dominate, that could be the difference of $4 million and Boras would potentially advise that. I don't know Rodon's family situation or anything but it's not impossible that he could balk at #5
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I believe this too, it reminds me so much of the Andrew Heaney situation, he was the most dominate pitcher in college that year but his velocity was in the 90-93 range and many said he had no projection left (I liked him but We definitely made the right choice with Buxton). In the minors he bumped up to 94-96 and he's the most dominate lefty in the minors with 3-4 plus offerings. Nola could do the same, I'm starting to believe that with a great weekend he could get a huge bump (I'm torn on this, I'm on the Nola bandwagon but I'm also a University of Houston grad so I'm really hoping he doesn't face us)
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I saw this scouting report too from MLB.com and I find it a bit fishy. If those are future grades then sure I could see that but as a current grade there's no way. His Slider and curve are very raw offering in which he has very little feel and control for. Current ratings for those pitches should be more like 50-55 tops, currently he does not have 3 plus offerings it's more like 1. 80 rating for FB is solely focused on velocity and not on movement, the velocity is impressive but 100+ has been hitable in the past with no movement! Kolek has some but it gets flat at times, 80 grade would mean it's perfect, I would knock it down a few notches to 70-75 for that reason. The change grade is based on speculation because I'm not sure he has one yet, I haven't seen any videos in which he throws one. Kolek has the highest ceiling of any prospect in this class due to his size, mechanics, and velocity but he has quite a bit of work to do, he could end up being Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson, or he could be Joel Zumaya.
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I would have to assume Kolek unless teams think Rodon will be too expensive, in that case we probably pass on Rodon too because we hate dealing with expensive Boras guys. Rodon could easily pull an Appel if he isn't taken top 3.
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No the worry on Kolek is that he ONLY throws fast, he's really not much more than the 100+ fastball and he has control issues! Seth's point was that very few in history have been able to maintain that and without his FB he quickly becomes a bullpen guy
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Beckham is who I see when I look at Gordon, though Gordon has a less developed bat than Beckham had. I didn't like Beckham then and I don't like him now, maybe I just don't trust the "Toolsy" label, it seems like those guys bust more often then not.
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most scouting reports give him a plus in fielding and speed but every one I read have his hit tool very questionable, it could develop and he could be an all star or it could not and he's Adam Everett, that's the danger with Gordon
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I don't see Gordon hitting enough either, that's why I'm hoping the Cubs take him with #4, that would leave us with Jackson or Nola, I'd be happy with that
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Also in years past Buxton was heavily reported as was Parmelee, Hicks, and Wimmers. We generally go with what is reported, we tend to not be smoke screeners, the only years I can remember that were surprises were Levi Michael and Ben Revere and Levi wasn't supposed to be there.
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In the Nola debate I'm surprised that Andrew Heaney has not come up, I realize that he's a different prospect but other than being left handed his draft profile is similar to Nola. Low 90s FB with movement, killer curve (out pitch), developing change, smooth delivery. Nola's profile actually sounds a little better and Heaney's dominating in AAA right now. Just a thought
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Kyle Freeland
twinsfanstreif replied to Eric R Pleiss's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It seems odd how he throws so many strikes when you look at his delivery. He seems to release a bit late and doesn't seem to have a lot of balance or "easiness" in his delivery. Very strange but hard to argue with the results, he must have some deception in the way it comes out to fool hitters. I like Freeland because he is left handed, has a good arsenal, and still has a lot to grow and learn. He could be a good one but there is some risk involved -
I was more comparing Nola to Radke in the majors, not as a draftee. Honestly I could find very little video on Radke and I wasn't doing any analysis when he was playing. I thought Radke had a very versatile arsenal but I guess not. If it helps I like Nola better than a Radke but I was making the point that a guy doesn't have to blow people away to be really good. As far as this draft goes I agree, I'm just not seeing the top end quality as in years past, many of these guys have far to many question marks than I am comfortable with and I'm just not seeing the upside with most of them that would be there at #5
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Can we focus on the important things? We have an opportunity to, at some point, draft Kyle Gibson - C from Louisville. He's not that good (he didn't hit a HR in college) but if he were to make it we would be able to have Kyle Gibson pitching to Kyle Gibson! It's a chance to make history people!
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I would love a curveball too. Though the Twins are usually not tight lipped about who they're after, the past 6 or so years have not been a surprise (except Levi Michael I guess). So there's been a ton of chatter about the Twins being in on Gordon and Nola and aside from someone falling we should probably expect either one. I like Nola over Gordon, I just have a bad feeling about Gordon, maybe it's just my gut but he reminds me too much of Tim Beckham. I feel like there's a good chance I'm gonna have to be ok with Gordon though, if we go that way I hope I'm wrong and he turns out to be Jeter!
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That's fine but no one has provided me with a better pitching option at #5 if the big 3 are gone. I like Nola or Freeland (leaning Freeland right now). If not a pitcher I like Jackson, Zimmer, or Turner (not a fan of Gordon, don't like the hit tool). Say the top 4 goes Aiken, Roden, Kolek, Jackson then we're left with a bunch of guys that everyone's gonna complain about. Either low upside, lack of control, iffy hit tool, etc. In that case who would everyone be ok with?
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Because we can always draft Adam Johnson now!
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Who are we referring to though? If Aiken, Kolek, and Roden are off the board who else projects as an ace? Maybe Beede but his control issues are risky, maybe Newcomb but he is super raw, maybe Hoffman but he needs TJ and that's always tricky. those are the only guys aside from the top 3 who COULD project as an ace and they are all very risky. Nola's not my favorite guy but there is no one who is projected to be there that blows me away unless one of the big 3 falls so Nola and Freeland become intriguing options. I like ceiling as much as the next guy but very few prospects a year have a high ceiling with low risk. It's the difference of a 200/1 odds to win $10,000 or 10/1 odds to win $1000. It's beginning to look just like last years #4 pick in a 3 man race. This year we have #5 pick this year in a 3, maybe 4 man race.
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here's a few: http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/2013/06/25/2014-mlb-draft-profile-aaron-nola/ http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/1/13/5304880/phillies-2014-draft-preview-aaron-nola-rhp
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While I do like and trust Law's opinion there are plenty of scouts who say otherwise on Nola, he could see an improvement on velocity in the next few years with some conditioning and a few tweeks on his delivery. I do agree with the fact that if you throw him out there right away he won't really be much more than he currently is. Hultzen had significantly more questions than Nola does right now and he was projected as average across the board with no out pitch, a #3 ceiling, and inconsistent command. Where scouts liked Hultzen is he was a big, smart, projectable pitcher who could dominate if his FB improved (he was topping out at 94 in most reports I saw). His FB never improved and he's a #5 at best. Most scouting reports I saw on him said this exact thing so Seattle did drastically over draft him in a weak pitching class. The difference with Nola is all of his stuff is above average right now including a curve that might be the best in this class, he's a smaller guy with incredible control. If scouts liked his body more and his FB had a few ticks more (he sits 91-94 but has topped out at 96) he would be a sure fire top 3.
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The more I watch tape and think about it I begin to really like the idea of Nola or Freeland. Both are control guys with a good mix of pitches and #2 type stuff. Each has projection left with Freeland having a little more than Nola but Nola is better now. Freeland is a lefty so there is an advantage there. These guys seem safer than the others but have a more complete arsenal and better control. I'm a bigger fan of this rather than Gordon, I'm just not sold on him.
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Why? Radke wasn't spectacular but he was a very solid major leaguer for a decade, I'll take that over a bust, they can't all be Verlander/Price, I'll take a solid #2 that could get here quick any day. Cain/Wainwright/Carpenter are all examples of guys who aren't flashy but could get the job done(in their prime). Nola could be that guy. I don't want him over Kolek but at #5 with the big 3 gone, I prefer Nola over Many of the others. there's not really a #1 pitcher there after those guys, mostly lots of #2s and Nola is the best of them
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Does Nola remind anyone of Radke? Control guy, several slightly above average pitches, even their wind up looks similar. Although not spectacular I would take another Radke at #5 to pair with Meyer!
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Article: Twins Draft Preview: Trea Turner
twinsfanstreif replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Steve, I have to disagree with you on Gordon, his bat is a huge question mark with many saying he could be average at best. The same is to be said for Turner and Turner is less of a project with less of an arm but way better speed, I'd take him in a heartbeat over Gordon, I'm just really not sold on him, he reminds me of another guy I wasn't sold on but went high in Tim Beckham, at the time I said it was a huge mistake for TB to draft him over the safer/better pick of Buster Posey. I'm not saying Turner's gonna be Posey but I believe he is the better player -
Article: Twins Draft Preview: Trea Turner
twinsfanstreif replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've always liked Turner and I don't get the concern, I think. His bat will be fine. The thing that's weird to me is that everyone (including the Twins apparently) are high on Gordon but to me he looks like a slower, less developed Turner. Maybe I'm just weird. another note, Knoblauch was drafted in 89 and was helping us win a WS by 91, it'd be pretty sweet (and I'm aware it's highly unlikely) if we drafted Turner and he did the same!!!