ThejacKmp

If you're going to look at this through the narrow lens of hitting, Castro is never going to look good. This move is predicated on a view of a catcher as a fielder first and a hitter second. Hermann was a terrible outfielder, let alone catcher. And don't get me started on Butera. Besides a fluke SS year in KC at age 32, his highest OPS is .555 and his defense has never gotten the acclaim that Castro's has. Castro may not be the best player ever but he's not Butera or Hermann. In fact, it's an insult to the word prospect to apply it to Herrmann and Butera. I think the lens we're looking through this is off. Castro is not the solution to the Twins catching woes but he's a vastly superior bridge to the next long-term Twins catcher than Suzuki was. He's relatively inexpensive ($8 million is not as much in today's MLB as it was) and didn't cost prospects to get. I expect the Twins to continue to target catching prospects in the draft and to hope that Ben R. and Garver continue to develop.

Disagree about the any other team aspect. If you're a contending team looking for catching help, a one or two year deal to Ramos is a great move that makes all the sense in the world. He is only 29 and he had a great year last year. You have a good shot at an elite catcher for a few years and don't have to throw out the huge contract Wieters will get. That said, agreed about the Twins not going after Ramos. He'd be a heck of a gamble on a long-term deal and in the short-term, he'd likely not move the dial enough to be worth the risk.

I think it's way too early to say they got duped. That said, it was a terrible year. It's hard to quantify the catching part of it - there aren't easy stats and you end up in scouting reports and hearsay. But the hitting part is something I think he'll bounce back on. Over 99 MLB games and 257 PA in 2014 and 2015, JRM put up a .718 OPS. He also hit every step up through the majors, posting .700+ OPS each level. Last year was awfulness for a full year but just as we all were cautious when Danny Santana had one great year in a series of average years, we should be wary of dismissing JRM for one awful year in a series of decent years. He should be able to hit at an above-average rate for a catcher. So I think he's a fine backup catcher and would rather see Garver down in AAA catching and playing every day. If Garver has an impressive 1/2 to 2/3 of a year, maybe he can force a platoon that helps his development.

In 2015 he caught 24 out of 66 baserunners for 36%, an above rate (32% was league average). In 2016 he caught 14 out of 59 for $24% (29% was league average). He's been about league average over his career for this stat (which is highly variable BTW). Not sure where you got your stats but it would be hard for them to be more wrong.

Oh man, disagree. If they trade Dozier, I want it to be entirely focused on pitching prospects - the more and the higher rated the better. The Twins with Castro are fine at catcher. Twins fans have been spoiled with a decade of Mauer - most teams never really have elite catchers. Castro/JRM/Garver/Turner/Rortvedt is a perfectly acceptable amount of catching depth. It's not going to be a position of strength unless Garver or Rortvedt take big jumps but it's not going to be what keeps the team out of the playoffs. Pitching will be. The Twins need an influx of pitching prospects. If you trade Dozier (and you should) that's got to be the focus. We aren't signing the next Jon Lester, we need to find pitching within.

I would assume the hope is that he's a backup catcher by the 3rd year on this deal. $8 million seems like a lot for a backup catcher now but baseball deals keep getting bigger so in two years, that may very well be the market value of a strong backup catcher. Until then, it's not like the Twins would use that money elsewhere (they're not realistically getting an ace starting pitcher, paying for elite relievers is dicey and they don't have a lot of needs in position players because they're young all over the place). If this keeps them from signing the next Mike Pelfrey, that's an extra bonus. To me this is taking money out of the Pole-dads coffers and using it for something useful. I'm all for it. That said, I'm a bit sad about what this means for Garver. I was hoping to see him aggressively pushed next year and now with JRM ahead of him, he's more of a "Cup of Coffee in September" guy than a June guy. Obviously the Twins FO and staff have so much more insight into his development so they likely see a lot of things he needs to work on but on a personal level, Garver was a guy I got excited about for 2017 and I'm a bit sad. Also sad (but less sad) about JRM. I know last year was awful but I was hoping he'd have a nice bounce-back year since his prior trajectory suggested he could hit well for a catcher. Hopefully he'll be a little less backup and a little more platoon this year under the new FO. I'd like to see what we have in him.

(1) RBIs and runs scored are two additional mostly worthless stats that have significantly more to do with who hits around you than how good you actually are. Since ABW3's OBP is very low, this almost certainly has to do with where he hits in the lineup and that he's played on good teams. If you did an efficiency stat where you took RBI opportunities or took into account the number of at bats he has, you'd likely get a far different story. His OBP has been consistent - consistently low. (2) Listen, slugging is great. There's a reason the Brewers took a flier on ABW3 - if he can ever figure out how to tamp down strikeouts or take walks at an elite rate, he'd be a very useful player. But that’s the point – he hasn’t. His OBP last year was .784 in spite of the huge power numbers because he doesn’t put the ball in play and he doesn’t take many walks. That OBP is not exciting for a corner outfield prospect who struck out over 38% of the time at age 24 - a rate that figures to increase dramatically when taking the biggest jump of all to the MLB level. His ceiling right now is 4th OF and that’s something you can find anywhere. (3) We should throw out college steals because who cares about that – we might as well include high school and Little League if we’re going back that far. He has 43 steals through five minor league seasons. That’s less than nine per season, a number that figures to go down further as he reaches the majors where catchers and pitchers are significantly better at controlling the run game. I hardly think 7 steals per season qualifies as a great tool. Joe Mauer has stolen more than 7 bases four times in his career including a season at age 29. ABW’s speed tool is vastly overrated and deserves to be doubted. He is a one tool player. His arm/defense and speed are at best average for a corner OF and the hit tool is a dismal failure. I hope nothing but the best for the guy but there’s no reason anyone should be upset at the Twins moving on. Some draft picks don’t put it together and ABW has shown no sign of being capable of it. I would not have been upset if the Twins had given him one more year at AAA but if they want to see some other guys get a shot there, this is an easy call. NOTE: Look at 2015 for the flip side - the Twins struck out more than every other team except for the Astros in both totals and percents. Adding ABW would make that much worse. If you wanted to make a causal relationship, the Twins last year proved striking out a lot is a bad thing. But I wouldn't go that far. There is no magical elixir for making a good team - look at the differences between the Royals, the Cubs, the Indians, the Orioles. A good team can be built all kinds of ways (the Cubs won the world series while finishing in the 19th in K rate while the Indians were 22nd). However, I think we can say things like "Striking out over 40% of the time makes it close to impossible to have value" and "teams should avoid players who strike out excessively as it hurts their value." ABW does not appear to be part of the Twins solution because of his K rate.

I don't know about that. This postseason showed the joy of pitchers hitting, I think that set things back awhile on changing NL rules. I think to get it changed you're going to need several prominent pitchers to get hurt at the same time while batting. I also love that baseball has two sets of rules. It makes the World Series and interleague play so much fun to watch.

This is a thoroughly worthless stat. Kepler is not going to become Mickey Mantle just because he happened to be on four teams that won titles. As Buxton struggles last year, the solution wasn't for him to think, "hey, I'm a winner! I won a minor league championship! I should just hit like that!" ABW strikes out too much. As he is now, he would be murdered in the pros. I hope he finds a way to adjust and strike out less but the odds are against that.

Almost preferable. If things go well you get his prime and you aren't going to have to make a free agent choice when he's 29 and on the edge of declining.

I'm not taking the savings to Vegas on this one, just saying that there's a statistical basis for hoping that Mauer might trend up in 2017. The offseason is a time for optimism!

I don't get the "DFA Centeno now" chatter. Why not wait until you sign another catcher (e.g. Castro)? If the free agent market doesn't yield anyone good (lot of indication that Castro's market will be busy), Centeno is a nice cheap temporary platoon match with JRM until Garver is ready (seems unlikely he'll start the season with the Twins). I'm not sure you'd get anyone significantly better after the elite guys are gone so why dump an acceptable plan B before plan A is a reality? Maybe it's roster reasons but if you need space, guys like Grossman, Boshers and O'Rourke seem to be a lot easier to replace than an acceptable backup catcher.

This is more of a mini-bounce but Mauer's BABIP from 2004 to 2014 was .348. In 2015 it was .309 and in 2016 it was .301. This hasn't been accompanied by a spike in GB rate and he actually had a career-best LD rate last year so he doesn’t seem to be hitting balls that are more easily turned into outs. He just seems to have been a bit unlucky over the past two years (of course along with an erosion of his hitting tool). There are some reasons this might drop (I can think of The Shift – though he’s faced that for more than the last two years so there isn't an easy causal relationship) but he's never been a guy who depended on his speed for infield hits so age shouldn’t erode his BABIP. If Mauer gets a bit more luck with the BABIP and returns to closer to normal (say .345) or even has a bit of extra luck (say .370), he could have a nice bounce-back season at age 34 (an .800 OPS?).

1) Plouffe should only be signed to arbitration if the Twins are pretty sure they can move him before the season. I've heard too much talk of "Plouffe will rebuild his value" - I think that ship sailed about three years ago. Time to get Sano at 3B and let him sink or swim. And use spring training to give Kepler and Mauer some reps at 3B. His spot can be taken by Park so that we have all the first basemen. 2) Don't understand why we would want Alex Avila or any veteran placeholder catcher. I'm very comfortable with a Centeno/JRM platoon with Garver getting 1/2 to 3/4 of a year seasoning in AAA. Avila adds nothing besides veteran moxie and I'm sick of veteran moxie. How much better is Avila than the random catching depth that will be floating around at midseason. 3.) I'm fine with keeping Santiago since the Twins can use pitching depth and it's not like they'd be able go out and spend that money in a better way. Santiago is basically a one-year deal for a 4th starter ceiling and 6th starter floor. That's about what that costs. 4.) Same thing with Kintzler. $2.5 million is a small gamble with funds the Twins won't use otherwise. If he has a good half year, he'll get something at the deadline. If not, he can be cut six weeks in. 5.) I see no way the Twins have Drew in a Dozier-less world. Drew is going to want to start and the Twins have Polanco and Escobar. I'd rather carry a 12th pitcher and have Santana be the backup middle infielder. The Twins have Vielma in AA/AAA this year if Escobar craps the bed and Gordon making the jump to AA and potentially ready for a September cup-of-coffee. That's enough middle infield depth and you still have the Beresford types if something happens early in the season. 6.) This isn't mentioned but Phil Hughes will likely play a role as he is supposed to be ready for spring training. I'd rather see him in the pen at this point (expensive but he was a great setup man earlier in his career) but he also provides some back-of-the-rotation starting pitching depth as well. 7.) No opinion on Grossman. He's an okay 4th OF. He should compete with ABW and Palka for that job. I think he should get it because I want those two playing every day and working on cutting down K's. If an OF goes down, bring ABW or Palka up to start.

Big Cubs fan as my family has had season tickets since the 70s, super excited. That said, kind of sick of people saying that this Game 7 was better than 1991. Not true. The only one that comes close is 2001 and even that pales in comparison. The 8th inning of 1991 - oh man, so many crapping your pants moments.

It was fine to use him in the 7th for the 3rd out. He should not have come back for the 8th.

Yeah, I felt weird making things gendered as I wrote them but it's so awkward to always have "he or she" and "him or her" throughout. And the vast majority of abuse is female on male so I went with it but still didn't feel good. Excellent and needed aside.

Couldn't disagree more. We always need to listen to the victim and take it into consideration. If the DA just pursues a case without the consent of the victim and without talking to them, he or she hurts that victim all over again. Whether it’s losing a home because the family loses an income, having to get a second job and not see their kids or dealing with shunning in the community from people who downplay the incident and play the blame game, these consequences are real. We should take the victim’s preferences into consideration (obviously some concept of the egregiousness and violence of the crime plays a role but most cases fall into a gray zone). That’s really why we need something between “Your partner is going to jail” and “Your partners is coming home to probably abuse you again.” Something that involves access to resources to prevent further recurrences or help to gain independence without going under. Vanimal quoted this article, a must-read when thinking about this issue.

Everyone gets bored. Most people don't react by smoking crack. But some do. That doesn't mean that boredom isn't a reason some people get into smoking crack. I just feel sad if you think people can't be rehabilitated. And scared - I feel like a lot of the problems we have in the world are because people think that other people are broken and thus not as human (not saying that's you, just that it's the same mindset). And I think a lot of abusers don't see women as property - I think they're scared of women having independence, cheating on them, not needing them etc. I don't think it's dismissive-based, I think it's fear-based. That said, you have an excellent point about our punishment system being geared towards useless punishment and not towards rehabilitation, though I think you're being wildly optimistic that juvenile programs are markedly different. I think the only real difference is that we erase a juvenile record at 18 so their blemishes don't carry over to the work force. We have a lot of problems in this country but perhaps the biggest is changing our concept of prison. Go Twins! Go Mauer (I feel very confident we won't hear any Kirby Puckett-esque stories about Mauer down the line.)

Disagree. I think it is vitally important to understand that mentality. It's not trying to understand this mentality and the reasons behind it that led the NFL and MLB to their stupid harsh punitive suspension policy. If they cared to take the time to understand the people involved, they wouldn't suspend people at all. It hurts the victims as much or more than the victimizers and doesn't attempt to address the real issues at play in the relationship. We (and pro sports) need to try to understand the victim's reasons for not pressing charges if we're going to be able to provide real help. I also think I might have worded things poorly. I don't think DV is black-and-white - my whole point is that the gray area with DV makes the NFL/MLB reaction simplistic and counterproductive. The DUI is stupid but applying that logic to DV is just asinine.

Um, this opinion is pretty limited. I'm nervous anytime anyone proposes a one-size-fits-all cause to anything. Men hit women for all kinds of issues - one time anger blowups, stress from work, depression, alcohol/drug addiction, inadequacy issues, etc. And to say that they can't be rehabilitated is crazy. I've known people who have rehabilitated anger issues through hard work and counseling - it's a similar process to drug/alcohol addiction, which we all know can be licked. For a rather dumb example, I knew kids who were heartless bullies growing up who later became the nicest people you've ever met,to the point that when you tell others who didn't know them when they were young that they were bullies, they don't believe you. People can change, it's the only thing that makes getting up in the morning worth doing.

I think you misunderstood what I mean by black and white. Or perhaps you didn’t read it – I suspect the latter is true since you’re indicating that I was talking about right and wrong in reference to abuser and victim. That’s nowhere near what I was saying. Let me try again. ---- DUIs are pretty straightforward crimes. A person drives with too much alcohol and is busted by the cops. There are field sobriety tests and physical evidence (blood or a breathalyzer number). Society has a clear and reasoned set of punishments – you drank and drove so you lose your license; you owe a fine and have to take a drunk driving education course; your insurance rates go up. There’s no need to convince the passenger in the car or the passenger in another car nearby to testify against the perpetrator. The crime itself is pretty straightforward, as are the punishments. Domestic violence (DV) is a whole different story. There is evidence but the officer in charge of prosecuting didn’t gather that evidence and has to navigate often conflicting stories (see Solo, Hope) to try to guess the truth. The officer also needs to convince the victim to testify in court, often against his or her own self-interest. Families face financial hardships that often include eviction if the perpetrator of DV goes to jail. This isn’t to mention that they have to look a loved one in the eye months after the incident and send them to jail. That’s a much harder thing to do and it becomes even harder since unlike with DUIs, the punishments for DV don’t really provide much of a solution or rational punishment. Time in jail is unlikely to correct abusive behavior and punishes the victims of DV right alongside their victimizers. For that reason, the NFL/MLB/NBA etc. tendency to punish crimes with big splashy suspensions is even more misguided for DV than it is for DUIs. It’s just another version of ignoring the basic issues behind it. ----- Hopefully that clarified this a bit more. A few more things that struck me from your response: 1) Ummm, it’s not the players union stopping punishment, it’s the league only caring when it became a big deal in the papers that delayed punishment. In fact, the players unions basically rolled over in the PA and Ray Rice cases because of PR issues as well. If the union is against things, it’s because owners are taking player paychecks and the basic function of a union is to protect member ages. I can’t see any player’s union being opposed to real solutions like treatment and counseling/support. 2) Really disagree about the restraining orders. The point isn’t how easy it is to get a restraining order, it’s how easy is it to enforce that restraining order. Real heartless victimizers aren’t often deterred by a piece of paper. And that also ignores people who have children and need a partner to help with childcare, bills and other household duties. A restraining order doesn’t solve that problem. 3) I’m not sure where you got that police dispatchers #1 most common call is domestic violence. I found nothing stating that. Source? 4) Similarly, not sure where you’re getting that the most common court cases are domestic abuse or that shows that indicate domestic abuse is rarely prosecuted are wrong. The stats I saw said 8 out of 10 never result in charges being filed, let alone successfully pursued. 5) Not disagreeing with you about the “it takes two to tango” aspect to some domestic abuse but (like you) I feel the need to strongly assert that verbal arguing and physical violence are two very different things. We should never diminish the horridness of slamming someone’s head of the wall by saying, “well but she was always fighting with him about things and was the one who started the argument.” Screaming and yelling isn’t health and productive but it also isn’t anything near physical violence. With that caveat noted, that cyclical thing is a real thing and is another reason that the blanket suspension/release is a terrible real-world solution. Intervention is needed, not blind mandated punishment. Thoughts?

The issue for me is a bit different - I really resent the simplistic ways media and the Commissioners Offices handle these things. It's not being handled as a real issue, it's being treated like a PR problem. A nice parallel example is DUIs. DUIs are bad and deserve punishment but if you're an accountant or work in a coffee shop, your employer doesn't suspend you because you got a DUI. They let the courts run their process and set punishments. Pro sports have taken to suspending or releasing guys with DUIs because they worry about driving off fans or giving newspaper columnists something to rail against. The concern has nothing (or little) to do with being upset about the idiocy of drunk driving or wanting to help a player out - they are focused on money and PR. If they really cared, they'd have programs set up to help players with DUIs get support to make better choices in the future. This focus on the PR is an even bigger problem when it comes to domestic abuse because the issue is a lot harder to figure out. We have a logical set of punishments for DUIs but don't for domestic abuse because it's not as black-and-white of a crime. If we send abusers to jail, their families often suffer right alongside them. Mom might have to enter a workforce she is not trained for and children suffer without a parent around. And even if Dad gets out of jail a changed man (doubtful since prison is about punishment, not rehabilitation), he's going to have a hard time finding a job with a blemish on his record. That's a big reason why charges are so rarely pursued - everyone involved has an incentive to keep the abuser out of jail because jail solves nothing and can often create larger or different problems. The system society has set up actively promotes women to stay with abusers because they can't afford not to. What's so frustrating is that pro sports has a chance (for once) to be on the forefront of highlighting solutions to a societal problem but regularly chooses not to. Their money-driven response is to suspend and release players, the equivalent of sending them to jail. It's good PR to suspend guys and seem like you're taking the issue seriously but in reality, it's about the same as ignoring the incidents. Pro sports does nothing to try to solve the actual problem. Baseball could help develop ways of providing real counseling, substance abuse training and relationship dynamics support to tackle the core issues of domestic abuse. They have the resources to provide free anger management and family counseling but instead just suspend a guy and garnish his wages. A logical plan could even help develop a nice treatment pattern to be applied to society as a whole allowing sports to contribute something to society. But no, it's about money. MLB suspends Chapman and then fans either forget about it and cheer for his fastball or never forgive him and make him a social piranha. Neither one does anything to help Chapman and his family or to change the distressing narrative and patterns of domestic abuse. It's really very sad.

Yeah, the Twins had no chance. I'm not sure that Maddon would have gone to MN no matter the amount they threw at him. The Cubs job was such a great job and it was Maddon's for the taking. Hard to compete.

Disagree with your disagreement :-) The Cubs (wisely) eschewed a lot of pitching development knowing that they had the resources and draw to go sign the Lesters and Lackeys when their position players started to develop. The Twins aren't a draw for guys like Lackey and they don't have the financials to sign guys like Lester. We can try to emulate the Arrieta/Hendricks aspects (though really, what teams aren't trying to do that? It's easier said than done.) Perhaps Ervin Santana fits that Ryan Dempster-type who can be flipped for some solid pitching prospects. But again, easier said than done and there's a fair amount of luck involved in it. The better comparison would be the Indians, who developed much of their pitching in house. Hopefully the new GM can get better results from the Twins many intriguing pitching prospects and add in a few of outside lottery ticket types that may pan out.