Hans Birkeland

It’s hard to get excited about the Minnesota Twins. They could easily be an exciting team by next spring but that’s beside the point. The Twins just never seem to command any respect.
They’ve been around for sixty years, have won two titles and plenty of divisions. No one blamed them for getting Sandy Koufax’d in 1965. They had a historic home run hitter in Harmon Killebrew, a spark plug who could carry a team in Kirby Puckett, and the Jack Morris ten inning shutout. They don't limit payroll to criminal degree like the Pirates or Reds, and they don't make laughable front office decisions like the Rockies or Royals. They've won more than teams like the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Cubs. But they remain the “Twinkies.”
They probably became underdogs in 1987, when an 85 win team defied all odds and beat a Jack Clark-less Cardinals team. 1991 was as deserved as can be, but in baseball, teams get branded and it’s up to the team to shake off the label. Instead the underdog designation was leaned into with scrappy players who were taught to de-emphasize power, much to the chagrin of one D. Ortiz. Not too long after the core of the 1991 team went their separate ways did other teams start to exploit this philosophy. They realized they could just lean on their strengths and pulverize a cute team with some nice players-If they were a good team- the Twins from ’91 on could usually beat the so-so and bad teams. The way the Twins have been historically, they’re a good barometer for teams to know if they are true contenders or not.
But the “put the ball in play and pitch to contact” mantra was pretty dated by the time the 90s rolled around. The Twins kept using it, especially under Tom Kelly. Under Ron Gardenhire they evolved into a more stars n’ scrubs kind of pesky, where as an opposing team you pitch around Mauer and Morneau only to get burned by Nick Punto.
The team has operated in a more modern way since the new Falvey and Levine regime rolled in after 2016, but the lack of credibility isn’t helped by the shameful playoff losing streak, or the declining ticket sales.
Sure, they have new uniforms, a bunch of quality players returning from injury and have made big splashes in free agency two of the last three offseasons, but good luck convincing anyone to jump on the bandwagon.
Going anywhere near that bandwagon is a bitter blend of Lucy pulling the ball back from Charlie Brown, a dash of Bill Buckner, a little hubris, that meme of Michael Scott saying I’m ready to get hurt again, the Timberwolves, and a general aesthetic of being both old-fashioned and a little brother. Imagine a toddler wearing a baseball uniform from 1910 and just getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. If you’re new to the Twins, that’s kind of where we’re at.
This may be a controversial take, but I think 2022 was something different. To the untrained eye, a middling team got hot in April and let it slip away due to regression to the mean and some key injuries. The starting pitching was mediocre and the bullpen often struggled to get the game to superstar ace reliever Jhoan Duran. The lineup needed another right-handed bat. But I saw flashes of a complete team with correctable flaws and most importantly, a different feel about them. Maybe it was the media getting to go back into the clubhouses and seeing the human side of the players once again. Or maybe something changed when Correa was brought in.
The easiest difference to pinpoint was that the Twins certainly seemed like a more serious team. A lot of that may have come from Correa, which I think is why the front office appears to be making a real play to bring him back. Getting a dedicated, serious, superstar player who is bilingual and wants to lead seemed to make a big difference. Arraez went from being sillier than Juan Soto in the box, to looking almost menacing at times, and played meaningless games down the stretch on a busted hamstring just to say his batting title was legitimate. Tom Kelly would have hated that. Buxton was a warrior- he’s played through injuries before but nothing like what he tried in ’22. Duran had one of the best reliever season in Twins history and I don’t think he smiled once. Ditto for Sonny Gray. Even Rocco Baldelli letting his inner-Rocco out from time to time on the umpires was a welcome change.
That isn’t to say having a funny moment from time to time is what led to eighteen straight playoff losses, but with that streak and the somewhat stunning implosion of 2021, it made sense to raise the standard for professionalism a notch. They still struggled against the very best teams but had a winning record against the AL East and played competitive games for the most part, including a few more add-on runs, an Achilles heel of the 2019-2021 teams. Eventually the lineup got overmatched with the system fresh out of right-handed corner guys, Sandy Leon catching half the time, Arraez playing hurt, Gary Sanchez watching his career slip away and Miranda looking gassed. I don’t blame the injuries to the star players; I blame the injuries to the first layer of depth; Royce Lewis’ injury was the most devastating, but Alex Kirilloff’s was a close second. Trevor Larnach looked like he was starting to figure out breaking balls before he tried to play through a hernia. Kyle Garlick going down ended up being a big loss when Jake Cave and Mark Contreras were sent to replace him. How does Jordan Balzovic’s season go if he doesn’t hurt his knee? Those guys were the reinforcements, and the third string options weren’t there, as would be the case with most teams. For example, if the Dodgers top four outfielders all got hurt, that would open holes for them, as well. James Outman looks like a decent prospect, but the thought of him with his sixteen career PA and Joey Gallo being your best options out there is pretty rough. And if you include Kepler’s toe, the Twins had five outfielders (six if you include Lewis) with significant injuries, with all five of them either healthy or “about to be” healthy at the trade deadline. Either Target Field was built on an ancient Native American burial ground, or that is some garbage luck.
My point isn’t that the 2022 team was amazing, it’s that they were respectable. Sometimes the best laid plans get you kicked in the stones. Running it back and expecting different results goes against conventional wisdom, but sometimes a group needs to experience a good stone kicking. 2001 was the last time Cleveland chased down the Twins and ended up grabbing the division by a good margin and we all remember what happened after that.
And here we are, with 50M to spend and no gaping holes, with a lineup that could look like this:
DH Arraez
CF Buxton
3B Miranda
2B Polanco
1B Kirilloff
RF Larnach
LF Gordon
C Jeffers
SS Farmer
Bench:
Celestino
Sandy Leon or something
Eduoard Julien?
Kepler/Wallner/Gordon
 
And a rotation that looks like this:
Sonny Gray
Tyler Mahle
Kenta Maeda
Joe Ryan
Bailey Ober
 
Louie Varland
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Josh Winder
Jordan Balazovic
 
And a bullpen like this:
Duran
Lopez
Jax
Thielbar
Alcala
Moran
Pagan (the unseriousness is still strong here)
Henriquez
 
Not a lot of holes, and you don’t have to squint hard to see this team easily outperforming its 81-81 projection. Another factor is that the Twins front office is even more desperate now, with their jobs very much on the line. They signed the number one free agent last offseason and had the most aggressive trade deadline in Twins history last year (albeit not a high bar to clear). They are going for it more than any Twins team I can remember, and if they can put the payroll space they have available to any sort of good use, this could be a championship club. Don’t let your past trauma and embarrassment convince you otherwise!
If they get Carlos Rodon with that money, they have the best rotation in the Central with incredible depth and can match up with any team in a short series.
If they get Correa with that money the lineup is a force and the depth is similarly incredible if Royce Lewis is able to come back and/or Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Edouard Julien arrive.
If they get Willson Contreras with that money the lineup goes eight deep and leaves 30M or so left to continue adding or to add a huge piece at the deadline.
It’s interesting stuff, and thanks to this front office’s frugality outside of the handful of big free agent signings, there is a chance for some sustainability here. Mahle, Maeda and Gray are likely gone after this year… and that’s it, unless you’re a big Max Kepler fan. The teams of the 2000s, by comparison, were capped by an astounding lack of quality depth, with massive holes not addressed, or filled with Tony Batista types. Sift through any of the 8-20 batters on a Twins baseball-reference page in the 2000-2010 era and you will be met with the absolute dregs or organized baseball: Brent Gates, Luis Rodriguez, Juan Castro, Brent Abernathy, Brian Buscher, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes, Brian Dinkelman, Rene Tosoni, Clete Thomas- and some of those guys got 300 at-bats. If Gordon and Celestino are paired with Lee, Martin, Lewis, Wallner and maybe even Jeffers, the difference is clear to see.
I don’t want to overstate this, because the Astros are on another level with incredible depth that looks to be getting even better, but the Yankees finished second in the AL last year, and if they don’t sign Aaron Judge they are still well into the luxury tax penalty with a lineup consisting of:
1. Whatever is left of D.J. LeMahieu
2. Gleyber Torres unless he is traded
3. Anthony Rizzo
4. The declining and increasingly cringe-swinging Giancarlo Stanton
5. Josh Donaldson and his sub .700 OPS
6. Aaron Hicks
7. Harrison Bader
8. Jose Trevino (That all-star nod is looking a little Bryan LaHair-ish)
9. IKF or a rookie (Volpe and Peraza do look pretty good)
 
My guess is the Yankees would still make a significant signing, but even if it’s Bogaerts or Correa they have a problem here. For the first time in thirty years, I think I would prefer to be in the Twins boat right now.
The future is bright, you just have to let yourself see it. For fifteen years or so the Twins were, more or less, embarrassing to be a fan of, alternating between bad, scrappy, and sorta good but always accompanied by a certain unseriousness, whether that be Gardenhire not knowing how to utilize the number two slot in the lineup or how the internet worked, extending Phil Hughes for no reason, or discouraging lifting the ball to the pull side. Thankfully, the roster construction has evolved from a stars and scrubs team (2000’s), to a team full of three WAR guys (2019-2020), to a stars and three WAR guys™ team provided they spend even 30M of the money they have left to reach last year’s payroll, with a front office desperate to make that happen. Becoming a powerhouse is the best way to shake off decades-old narratives and restore the credibility/respect needed to have any intimidation factor come playoff time. Any of the following scenarios work for me:
Correa and Tucker Barnhart, 40M AAV
Dansby and Narvaez, 40M AAV
Rodon and Danny Jansen, 35M AAV (minus some combination of Larnach, Wallner and Kepler, maybe David Festa or someone similar)
Bogaerts and a trade for Brandon Woodruff (minus Arraez, RIP, plus a top ten org prospect) plus Mike Redmond out of retirement, 40M AAV
I think it will happen in some combination, but these things tend to not work out the way you imagine. Last year we as fans thought they would trade for a starter after Sonny Gray- we didn’t think it would involve Taylor Rogers and now he's at a career crossroads. Trading Donaldson and IKF was beyond my level of creativity, and I would say that trade was a resounding success.
The division is terrible, and just as the Twins can probably count on fewer injuries next year, so too can Cleveland count on having some. I cannot stress enough how obnoxious it was that they dealt with no significant injuries the entire year. Their pitching is overrated, their lineup is underrated, but somebody crucial will deal with injury next year. The Twins adding seven WAR via free agency gets them to an 88 win total in theory, and one of their young guys busting out gets them to 91. Then there is the Buxton wildcard- if he misses time but gets healthy for the stretch run, the true talent level goes through the roof. If Kirilloff’s bone shaving operation works (it did for a young Kirk Gibson) he becomes one of the highest upside bats on the team.
The Guardians are the division champs for now, and give them credit. But the Twins are no longer the team that accommodates Nelson Cruz’s mid-afternoon naps, Brian Dozier’s Rubix cube prowess or Michael Cuddyer’s magic show then has no idea what intensity is in the playoffs. Even if Correa leaves, his impact has been felt and with a few good signings and a couple in-season breaks, this team will strike fear in teams in ways it hasn’t since Killebrew and Carew. Now return to your regularly scheduled refreshing of MLBtraderumors.

It’s hard to get excited about the Minnesota Twins. They could easily be an exciting team by next spring but that’s beside the point. The Twins just never seem to command any respect.
They’ve been around for sixty years, have won two titles and plenty of divisions. No one blamed them for getting Sandy Koufax’d in 1965. They had a historic home run hitter in Harmon Killebrew, a spark plug who could carry a team in Kirby Puckett, and the Jack Morris ten inning shutout. They don't limit payroll to criminal degree like the Pirates or Reds, and they don't make laughable front office decisions like the Rockies or Royals. They've won more than teams like the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Cubs. But they remain the “Twinkies.”
They probably became underdogs in 1987, when an 85 win team defied all odds and beat a Jack Clark-less Cardinals team. 1991 was as deserved as can be, but in baseball, teams get branded and it’s up to the team to shake off the label. Instead the underdog designation was leaned into with scrappy players who were taught to de-emphasize power, much to the chagrin of one D. Ortiz. Not too long after the core of the 1991 team went their separate ways did other teams start to exploit this philosophy. They realized they could just lean on their strengths and pulverize a cute team with some nice players-If they were a good team- the Twins from ’91 on could usually beat the so-so and bad teams. The way the Twins have been historically, they’re a good barometer for teams to know if they are true contenders or not.
But the “put the ball in play and pitch to contact” mantra was pretty dated by the time the 90s rolled around. The Twins kept using it, especially under Tom Kelly. Under Ron Gardenhire they evolved into a more stars n’ scrubs kind of pesky, where as an opposing team you pitch around Mauer and Morneau only to get burned by Nick Punto.
The team has operated in a more modern way since the new Falvey and Levine regime rolled in after 2016, but the lack of credibility isn’t helped by the shameful playoff losing streak, or the declining ticket sales.
Sure, they have new uniforms, a bunch of quality players returning from injury and have made big splashes in free agency two of the last three offseasons, but good luck convincing anyone to jump on the bandwagon.
Going anywhere near that bandwagon is a bitter blend of Lucy pulling the ball back from Charlie Brown, a dash of Bill Buckner, a little hubris, that meme of Michael Scott saying I’m ready to get hurt again, the Timberwolves, and a general aesthetic of being both old-fashioned and a little brother. Imagine a toddler wearing a baseball uniform from 1910 and just getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. If you’re new to the Twins, that’s kind of where we’re at.
This may be a controversial take, but I think 2022 was something different. To the untrained eye, a middling team got hot in April and let it slip away due to regression to the mean and some key injuries. The starting pitching was mediocre and the bullpen often struggled to get the game to superstar ace reliever Jhoan Duran. The lineup needed another right-handed bat. But I saw flashes of a complete team with correctable flaws and most importantly, a different feel about them. Maybe it was the media getting to go back into the clubhouses and seeing the human side of the players once again. Or maybe something changed when Correa was brought in.
The easiest difference to pinpoint was that the Twins certainly seemed like a more serious team. A lot of that may have come from Correa, which I think is why the front office appears to be making a real play to bring him back. Getting a dedicated, serious, superstar player who is bilingual and wants to lead seemed to make a big difference. Arraez went from being sillier than Juan Soto in the box, to looking almost menacing at times, and played meaningless games down the stretch on a busted hamstring just to say his batting title was legitimate. Tom Kelly would have hated that. Buxton was a warrior- he’s played through injuries before but nothing like what he tried in ’22. Duran had one of the best reliever season in Twins history and I don’t think he smiled once. Ditto for Sonny Gray. Even Rocco Baldelli letting his inner-Rocco out from time to time on the umpires was a welcome change.
That isn’t to say having a funny moment from time to time is what led to eighteen straight playoff losses, but with that streak and the somewhat stunning implosion of 2021, it made sense to raise the standard for professionalism a notch. They still struggled against the very best teams but had a winning record against the AL East and played competitive games for the most part, including a few more add-on runs, an Achilles heel of the 2019-2021 teams. Eventually the lineup got overmatched with the system fresh out of right-handed corner guys, Sandy Leon catching half the time, Arraez playing hurt, Gary Sanchez watching his career slip away and Miranda looking gassed. I don’t blame the injuries to the star players; I blame the injuries to the first layer of depth; Royce Lewis’ injury was the most devastating, but Alex Kirilloff’s was a close second. Trevor Larnach looked like he was starting to figure out breaking balls before he tried to play through a hernia. Kyle Garlick going down ended up being a big loss when Jake Cave and Mark Contreras were sent to replace him. How does Jordan Balzovic’s season go if he doesn’t hurt his knee? Those guys were the reinforcements, and the third string options weren’t there, as would be the case with most teams. For example, if the Dodgers top four outfielders all got hurt, that would open holes for them, as well. James Outman looks like a decent prospect, but the thought of him with his sixteen career PA and Joey Gallo being your best options out there is pretty rough. And if you include Kepler’s toe, the Twins had five outfielders (six if you include Lewis) with significant injuries, with all five of them either healthy or “about to be” healthy at the trade deadline. Either Target Field was built on an ancient Native American burial ground, or that is some garbage luck.
My point isn’t that the 2022 team was amazing, it’s that they were respectable. Sometimes the best laid plans get you kicked in the stones. Running it back and expecting different results goes against conventional wisdom, but sometimes a group needs to experience a good stone kicking. 2001 was the last time Cleveland chased down the Twins and ended up grabbing the division by a good margin and we all remember what happened after that.
And here we are, with 50M to spend and no gaping holes, with a lineup that could look like this:
DH Arraez
CF Buxton
3B Miranda
2B Polanco
1B Kirilloff
RF Larnach
LF Gordon
C Jeffers
SS Farmer
Bench:
Celestino
Sandy Leon or something
Eduoard Julien?
Kepler/Wallner/Gordon
 
And a rotation that looks like this:
Sonny Gray
Tyler Mahle
Kenta Maeda
Joe Ryan
Bailey Ober
 
Louie Varland
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Josh Winder
Jordan Balazovic
 
And a bullpen like this:
Duran
Lopez
Jax
Thielbar
Alcala
Moran
Pagan (the unseriousness is still strong here)
Henriquez
 
Not a lot of holes, and you don’t have to squint hard to see this team easily outperforming its 81-81 projection. Another factor is that the Twins front office is even more desperate now, with their jobs very much on the line. They signed the number one free agent last offseason and had the most aggressive trade deadline in Twins history last year (albeit not a high bar to clear). They are going for it more than any Twins team I can remember, and if they can put the payroll space they have available to any sort of good use, this could be a championship club. Don’t let your past trauma and embarrassment convince you otherwise!
If they get Carlos Rodon with that money, they have the best rotation in the Central with incredible depth and can match up with any team in a short series.
If they get Correa with that money the lineup is a force and the depth is similarly incredible if Royce Lewis is able to come back and/or Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Edouard Julien arrive.
If they get Willson Contreras with that money the lineup goes eight deep and leaves 30M or so left to continue adding or to add a huge piece at the deadline.
It’s interesting stuff, and thanks to this front office’s frugality outside of the handful of big free agent signings, there is a chance for some sustainability here. Mahle, Maeda and Gray are likely gone after this year… and that’s it, unless you’re a big Max Kepler fan. The teams of the 2000s, by comparison, were capped by an astounding lack of quality depth, with massive holes not addressed, or filled with Tony Batista types. Sift through any of the 8-20 batters on a Twins baseball-reference page in the 2000-2010 era and you will be met with the absolute dregs or organized baseball: Brent Gates, Luis Rodriguez, Juan Castro, Brent Abernathy, Brian Buscher, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes, Brian Dinkelman, Rene Tosoni, Clete Thomas- and some of those guys got 300 at-bats. If Gordon and Celestino are paired with Lee, Martin, Lewis, Wallner and maybe even Jeffers, the difference is clear to see.
I don’t want to overstate this, because the Astros are on another level with incredible depth that looks to be getting even better, but the Yankees finished second in the AL last year, and if they don’t sign Aaron Judge they are still well into the luxury tax penalty with a lineup consisting of:
1. Whatever is left of D.J. LeMahieu
2. Gleyber Torres unless he is traded
3. Anthony Rizzo
4. The declining and increasingly cringe-swinging Giancarlo Stanton
5. Josh Donaldson and his sub .700 OPS
6. Aaron Hicks
7. Harrison Bader
8. Jose Trevino (That all-star nod is looking a little Bryan LaHair-ish)
9. IKF or a rookie (Volpe and Peraza do look pretty good)
 
My guess is the Yankees would still make a significant signing, but even if it’s Bogaerts or Correa they have a problem here. For the first time in thirty years, I think I would prefer to be in the Twins boat right now.
The future is bright, you just have to let yourself see it. For fifteen years or so the Twins were, more or less, embarrassing to be a fan of, alternating between bad, scrappy, and sorta good but always accompanied by a certain unseriousness, whether that be Gardenhire not knowing how to utilize the number two slot in the lineup or how the internet worked, extending Phil Hughes for no reason, or discouraging lifting the ball to the pull side. Thankfully, the roster construction has evolved from a stars and scrubs team (2000’s), to a team full of three WAR guys (2019-2020), to a stars and three WAR guys™ team provided they spend even 30M of the money they have left to reach last year’s payroll, with a front office desperate to make that happen. Becoming a powerhouse is the best way to shake off decades-old narratives and restore the credibility/respect needed to have any intimidation factor come playoff time. Any of the following scenarios work for me:
Correa and Tucker Barnhart, 40M AAV
Dansby and Narvaez, 40M AAV
Rodon and Danny Jansen, 35M AAV (minus some combination of Larnach, Wallner and Kepler, maybe David Festa or someone similar)
Bogaerts and a trade for Brandon Woodruff (minus Arraez, RIP, plus a top ten org prospect) plus Mike Redmond out of retirement, 40M AAV
I think it will happen in some combination, but these things tend to not work out the way you imagine. Last year we as fans thought they would trade for a starter after Sonny Gray- we didn’t think it would involve Taylor Rogers and now he's at a career crossroads. Trading Donaldson and IKF was beyond my level of creativity, and I would say that trade was a resounding success.
The division is terrible, and just as the Twins can probably count on fewer injuries next year, so too can Cleveland count on having some. I cannot stress enough how obnoxious it was that they dealt with no significant injuries the entire year. Their pitching is overrated, their lineup is underrated, but somebody crucial will deal with injury next year. The Twins adding seven WAR via free agency gets them to an 88 win total in theory, and one of their young guys busting out gets them to 91. Then there is the Buxton wildcard- if he misses time but gets healthy for the stretch run, the true talent level goes through the roof. If Kirilloff’s bone shaving operation works (it did for a young Kirk Gibson) he becomes one of the highest upside bats on the team.
The Guardians are the division champs for now, and give them credit. But the Twins are no longer the team that accommodates Nelson Cruz’s mid-afternoon naps, Brian Dozier’s Rubix cube prowess or Michael Cuddyer’s magic show then has no idea what intensity is in the playoffs. Even if Correa leaves, his impact has been felt and with a few good signings and a couple in-season breaks, this team will strike fear in teams in ways it hasn’t since Killebrew and Carew. Now return to your regularly scheduled refreshing of MLBtraderumors.

It’s hard to get excited about the Minnesota Twins. They could easily be an exciting team by next spring but that’s beside the point. The Twins just never seem to command any respect.
They’ve been around for sixty years, have won two titles and plenty of divisions. No one blamed them for getting Sandy Koufax’d in 1965. They had a historic home run hitter in Harmon Killebrew, a spark plug who could carry a team in Kirby Puckett, and the Jack Morris ten inning shutout. They don't limit payroll to criminal degree like the Pirates or Reds, and they don't make laughable front office decisions like the Rockies or Royals. They've won more than teams like the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Padres and Cubs. But they remain the “Twinkies.”
They probably became underdogs in 1987, when an 85 win team defied all odds and beat a Jack Clark-less Cardinals team. 1991 was as deserved as can be, but in baseball, teams get branded and it’s up to the team to shake off the label. Instead the underdog designation was leaned into with scrappy players who were taught to de-emphasize power, much to the chagrin of one D. Ortiz. Not too long after the core of the 1991 team went their separate ways did other teams start to exploit this philosophy. They realized they could just lean on their strengths and pulverize a cute team with some nice players-If they were a good team- the Twins from ’91 on could usually beat the so-so and bad teams. The way the Twins have been historically, they’re a good barometer for teams to know if they are true contenders or not.
But the “put the ball in play and pitch to contact” mantra was pretty dated by the time the 90s rolled around. The Twins kept using it, especially under Tom Kelly. Under Ron Gardenhire they evolved into a more stars n’ scrubs kind of pesky, where as an opposing team you pitch around Mauer and Morneau only to get burned by Nick Punto.
The team has operated in a more modern way since the new Falvey and Levine regime rolled in after 2016, but the lack of credibility isn’t helped by the shameful playoff losing streak, or the declining ticket sales.
Sure, they have new uniforms, a bunch of quality players returning from injury and have made big splashes in free agency two of the last three offseasons, but good luck convincing anyone to jump on the bandwagon.
Going anywhere near that bandwagon is a bitter blend of Lucy pulling the ball back from Charlie Brown, a dash of Bill Buckner, a little hubris, that meme of Michael Scott saying I’m ready to get hurt again, the Timberwolves, and a general aesthetic of being both old-fashioned and a little brother. Imagine a toddler wearing a baseball uniform from 1910 and just getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly. If you’re new to the Twins, that’s kind of where we’re at.
This may be a controversial take, but I think 2022 was something different. To the untrained eye, a middling team got hot in April and let it slip away due to regression to the mean and some key injuries. The starting pitching was mediocre and the bullpen often struggled to get the game to superstar ace reliever Jhoan Duran. The lineup needed another right-handed bat. But I saw flashes of a complete team with correctable flaws and most importantly, a different feel about them. Maybe it was the media getting to go back into the clubhouses and seeing the human side of the players once again. Or maybe something changed when Correa was brought in.
The easiest difference to pinpoint was that the Twins certainly seemed like a more serious team. A lot of that may have come from Correa, which I think is why the front office appears to be making a real play to bring him back. Getting a dedicated, serious, superstar player who is bilingual and wants to lead seemed to make a big difference. Arraez went from being sillier than Juan Soto in the box, to looking almost menacing at times, and played meaningless games down the stretch on a busted hamstring just to say his batting title was legitimate. Tom Kelly would have hated that. Buxton was a warrior- he’s played through injuries before but nothing like what he tried in ’22. Duran had one of the best reliever season in Twins history and I don’t think he smiled once. Ditto for Sonny Gray. Even Rocco Baldelli letting his inner-Rocco out from time to time on the umpires was a welcome change.
That isn’t to say having a funny moment from time to time is what led to eighteen straight playoff losses, but with that streak and the somewhat stunning implosion of 2021, it made sense to raise the standard for professionalism a notch. They still struggled against the very best teams but had a winning record against the AL East and played competitive games for the most part, including a few more add-on runs, an Achilles heel of the 2019-2021 teams. Eventually the lineup got overmatched with the system fresh out of right-handed corner guys, Sandy Leon catching half the time, Arraez playing hurt, Gary Sanchez watching his career slip away and Miranda looking gassed. I don’t blame the injuries to the star players; I blame the injuries to the first layer of depth; Royce Lewis’ injury was the most devastating, but Alex Kirilloff’s was a close second. Trevor Larnach looked like he was starting to figure out breaking balls before he tried to play through a hernia. Kyle Garlick going down ended up being a big loss when Jake Cave and Mark Contreras were sent to replace him. How does Jordan Balzovic’s season go if he doesn’t hurt his knee? Those guys were the reinforcements, and the third string options weren’t there, as would be the case with most teams. For example, if the Dodgers top four outfielders all got hurt, that would open holes for them, as well. James Outman looks like a decent prospect, but the thought of him with his sixteen career PA and Joey Gallo being your best options out there is pretty rough. And if you include Kepler’s toe, the Twins had five outfielders (six if you include Lewis) with significant injuries, with all five of them either healthy or “about to be” healthy at the trade deadline. Either Target Field was built on an ancient Native American burial ground, or that is some garbage luck.
My point isn’t that the 2022 team was amazing, it’s that they were respectable. Sometimes the best laid plans get you kicked in the stones. Running it back and expecting different results goes against conventional wisdom, but sometimes a group needs to experience a good stone kicking. 2001 was the last time Cleveland chased down the Twins and ended up grabbing the division by a good margin and we all remember what happened after that.
And here we are, with 50M to spend and no gaping holes, with a lineup that could look like this:
DH Arraez
CF Buxton
3B Miranda
2B Polanco
1B Kirilloff
RF Larnach
LF Gordon
C Jeffers
SS Farmer
Bench:
Celestino
Sandy Leon or something
Eduoard Julien?
Kepler/Wallner/Gordon
 
And a rotation that looks like this:
Sonny Gray
Tyler Mahle
Kenta Maeda
Joe Ryan
Bailey Ober
 
Louie Varland
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Josh Winder
Jordan Balazovic
 
And a bullpen like this:
Duran
Lopez
Jax
Thielbar
Alcala
Moran
Pagan (the unseriousness is still strong here)
Henriquez
 
Not a lot of holes, and you don’t have to squint hard to see this team easily outperforming its 81-81 projection. Another factor is that the Twins front office is even more desperate now, with their jobs very much on the line. They signed the number one free agent last offseason and had the most aggressive trade deadline in Twins history last year (albeit not a high bar to clear). They are going for it more than any Twins team I can remember, and if they can put the payroll space they have available to any sort of good use, this could be a championship club. Don’t let your past trauma and embarrassment convince you otherwise!
If they get Carlos Rodon with that money, they have the best rotation in the Central with incredible depth and can match up with any team in a short series.
If they get Correa with that money the lineup is a force and the depth is similarly incredible if Royce Lewis is able to come back and/or Brooks Lee, Austin Martin and Edouard Julien arrive.
If they get Willson Contreras with that money the lineup goes eight deep and leaves 30M or so left to continue adding or to add a huge piece at the deadline.
It’s interesting stuff, and thanks to this front office’s frugality outside of the handful of big free agent signings, there is a chance for some sustainability here. Mahle, Maeda and Gray are likely gone after this year… and that’s it, unless you’re a big Max Kepler fan. The teams of the 2000s, by comparison, were capped by an astounding lack of quality depth, with massive holes not addressed, or filled with Tony Batista types. Sift through any of the 8-20 batters on a Twins baseball-reference page in the 2000-2010 era and you will be met with the absolute dregs or organized baseball: Brent Gates, Luis Rodriguez, Juan Castro, Brent Abernathy, Brian Buscher, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes, Brian Dinkelman, Rene Tosoni, Clete Thomas- and some of those guys got 300 at-bats. If Gordon and Celestino are paired with Lee, Martin, Lewis, Wallner and maybe even Jeffers, the difference is clear to see.
I don’t want to overstate this, because the Astros are on another level with incredible depth that looks to be getting even better, but the Yankees finished second in the AL last year, and if they don’t sign Aaron Judge they are still well into the luxury tax penalty with a lineup consisting of:
1. Whatever is left of D.J. LeMahieu
2. Gleyber Torres unless he is traded
3. Anthony Rizzo
4. The declining and increasingly cringe-swinging Giancarlo Stanton
5. Josh Donaldson and his sub .700 OPS
6. Aaron Hicks
7. Harrison Bader
8. Jose Trevino (That all-star nod is looking a little Bryan LaHair-ish)
9. IKF or a rookie (Volpe and Peraza do look pretty good)
 
My guess is the Yankees would still make a significant signing, but even if it’s Bogaerts or Correa they have a problem here. For the first time in thirty years, I think I would prefer to be in the Twins boat right now.
The future is bright, you just have to let yourself see it. For fifteen years or so the Twins were, more or less, embarrassing to be a fan of, alternating between bad, scrappy, and sorta good but always accompanied by a certain unseriousness, whether that be Gardenhire not knowing how to utilize the number two slot in the lineup or how the internet worked, extending Phil Hughes for no reason, or discouraging lifting the ball to the pull side. Thankfully, the roster construction has evolved from a stars and scrubs team (2000’s), to a team full of three WAR guys (2019-2020), to a stars and three WAR guys™ team provided they spend even 30M of the money they have left to reach last year’s payroll, with a front office desperate to make that happen. Becoming a powerhouse is the best way to shake off decades-old narratives and restore the credibility/respect needed to have any intimidation factor come playoff time. Any of the following scenarios work for me:
Correa and Tucker Barnhart, 40M AAV
Dansby and Narvaez, 40M AAV
Rodon and Danny Jansen, 35M AAV (minus some combination of Larnach, Wallner and Kepler, maybe David Festa or someone similar)
Bogaerts and a trade for Brandon Woodruff (minus Arraez, RIP, plus a top ten org prospect) plus Mike Redmond out of retirement, 40M AAV
I think it will happen in some combination, but these things tend to not work out the way you imagine. Last year we as fans thought they would trade for a starter after Sonny Gray- we didn’t think it would involve Taylor Rogers and now he's at a career crossroads. Trading Donaldson and IKF was beyond my level of creativity, and I would say that trade was a resounding success.
The division is terrible, and just as the Twins can probably count on fewer injuries next year, so too can Cleveland count on having some. I cannot stress enough how obnoxious it was that they dealt with no significant injuries the entire year. Their pitching is overrated, their lineup is underrated, but somebody crucial will deal with injury next year. The Twins adding seven WAR via free agency gets them to an 88 win total in theory, and one of their young guys busting out gets them to 91. Then there is the Buxton wildcard- if he misses time but gets healthy for the stretch run, the true talent level goes through the roof. If Kirilloff’s bone shaving operation works (it did for a young Kirk Gibson) he becomes one of the highest upside bats on the team.
The Guardians are the division champs for now, and give them credit. But the Twins are no longer the team that accommodates Nelson Cruz’s mid-afternoon naps, Brian Dozier’s Rubix cube prowess or Michael Cuddyer’s magic show then has no idea what intensity is in the playoffs. Even if Correa leaves, his impact has been felt and with a few good signings and a couple in-season breaks, this team will strike fear in teams in ways it hasn’t since Killebrew and Carew. Now return to your regularly scheduled refreshing of MLBtraderumors.

It looks like the pitching market is really shaping up for 2020 in terms of who is going to be available via trade. We have the Red Sox with David Price, Nate Eovaldi and maybe even Chris Sale. The Cubs may dangle Yu Darvish and there has even been some Mike Clevenger talk. Matthew Boyd continues to pop up; Robbie Ray, as well.
Beyond that I haven’t heard much, and that’s a shame because the hot item come July is rarely who we expect going into Spring Training. With the way teams prefer to retool as opposed to rebuild these days, it is, a lot of times the underperforming teams that went into the season as contenders that give away assets at the deadline. Look at the Yankees trading away Chapman in ’16. Or who would have thought Zack Greinke was on the block last year at this time?
It is true that it is generally the teams that are retooling or rebuilding who have players on expiring contracts that are the best bet. But my point is, what about if teams that we expect to contend, don’t? We didn’t expect the Red Sox to fall off so badly last year, the Phillies had all sorts of hopes pinned to them, as did the Mets, the Angels, and to a lesser extent the Padres and Reds. I won’t include the Cubs since they were in it till the end but there are always a couple of teams that either through injury or underperformance, just don’t do it that year. So I’m going to go through an exercise of finding out who might be available if the 2020 just ends up sucking for every team. I will skip the AL Central because 1) We aren't getting Clevinger 2) The Royals and Tigers don't have any assets unless you really love Brad Keller and Matt Boyd (I don't).
My criteria are that the player be at 3 or less years till free agency, and that he be better than Jake Odorizzi, since that's what it really comes down to when we inevitably face Gerrit Cole and the Yankees in October. Grades are for how likely the Twins are to end up dealing with said team. F= less than 0% D=0% C=3% B=6% A=10%
 
Yankees – Along with the Dodgers I would say the Yankees are the biggest locks to make the playoffs. We saw what happened when their entire team got hurt last year: 103 wins. Even if they struggle, their roster is so potent I can’t imagine they would punt on the season by July 31st. If by some stroke of luck they did, Masahiro Tanaka as a rental would likely be available pretty cheap. James Paxton is signed through 2021 so he could be had, as well, but at a much higher price. Chance of anything happening: F+
Rays – This is possible, as injuries to their bullpen, the aging of Charlie Morton, a sophomore slump for Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell unable to “prove it” would put a lot of pressure on their offense. And Hunter Renfroe may not work out as well as the metrics would predict. Snell is locked up through 2023 and Glasnow has got to be near untouchable, so that leaves Morton as a rental, which I like a lot (Except don’t get fleeced by the Rays like everyone else). Chance of anything happening: C-
Red Sox – Price or Eovaldi as a salary dump could make sense, although both come with huge health and performance related warts. I don’t see a Sale trade happening, and Eduardo Rodriguez has 3 more years. Although if he takes the next step and dominates he could be the best target of them all, though it would cost a fortune. Chance of anything happening: C+
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson has shown flashes, though no one seems to give him any credit for being a borderline ace in 2017 before getting hurt and then not being allowed past the 5th inning under Craig Counsell. I could see him having a bounce back and teams going after him, but it would require him figuring out his gopherball problems in the AL East... so maybe Matt Shoemaker is the play? Chance of anything happening: C
Orioles – John Means is probably dear to them after 2019. If Alex Cobb bounces back he could be in play, but would he be better than Odorizzi? Chance of anything happening: D+
Oakland – This team has talent and depth, so I don’t see them falling more out of contention than they usually do. If the worst happens, I suppose you could ask about Mike Fiers or try and give a king’s ransom for 3 years of Sean Manaea. Chance of anything happening: D
Angels – Suppose there were a situation where the Angels weren’t any good but Dylan Bundy and/or Julio Teheran were pitching well. Wait that actually sounds really likely. I mean not for both to rebound, but one? Sure, it’s a big park out there and the Astros won’t be stealing their signs. Chance of anything happening: C
Rangers – You have Lynn and Minor on expiring contracts in a division they likely won’t win. Absolutely, although it sounds like Minor loves Texas a lot, and Lynn would have to repeat being great for the first time in 5 years. Chance of anything happening: B
Astros – Can you imagine the mighty Astros playing .500 ball through July? It would require Verlander and Greinke to come back to Earth, the bullpen to realize Will Harris was their glue guy, Carlos Correa to keep getting hurt and Yordan Alvarez to just be a young player with power, not a young player with power who knew which pitch was coming. Add in the turmoil and distractions, a new manager and yeah it’s possible. But who do you get? Give them salary relief for either of the aces, or give a huge prospect package for McCullers? I’d probably lean for the former- Chance of anything happening: D-
Mariners – Marco Gonzales could probably be had, but again, is he better than Odorizzi? Not that he isn’t good, and durable, but he strikes me as a clear #3 or 4 and would cost a lot. Chance of anything happening: D+
Braves – They have a hole at 3B but Johan Camargo and Austin Riley aren’t nothing. They are stacked everywhere else so I don’t see them punting in July, but if they did Cole Hamels could be a rental, and Mike Foltynewicz could be available, depending on how he’s pitching. If he struggles then he’s cheap but you don’t want him. If he’s pitching like the #2 he can be, he’s expensive as hell and has a super inconsistent track record, so I’d lean towards Hamels if he’s pitching well and healthy. Chance of anything happening: D
Nats – Anibal might be the guy if the Nat’s offense realizes you can’t have a lineup full of #7 hitters and Juan Soto (You CAN have an offense like that if you add Anthony Rendon, as this is proven science). Anibal might not be better than Odorizzi on paper, but he performs in the post and wouldn’t be expensive as a rental. Chance of anything happening: D+
Mets – You go for Thor here when the Mets inevitably implode. Regression for McNeil and Alonso means your offense will likely struggle and although the top of the rotation is great, the bullpen and outfield defense is not even close. You know they wanted Buxton for 2.5 years of Thor, so 1.5 years would require what, Brent Rooker? I’d make that trade. Stroman just ain’t good enough for me, dawg. Chance of anything happening: C+
Phillies – I hate the way the Phillies build teams lately. You throw money at adding on to a contender, you don’t throw money at creating a foundation. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are your foundation pieces- that wasn’t enough then and it’s not enough now even after the additions they’ve made. Their lineup runs 7 deep and their rotation has 1 sure thing in it. Maybe 1.5 if you like Zach Eflin (Which I actually do). No depth, no NL East, no options for the Twins to trade for unless Arrieta has a big bounce back. Which he won’t- he hasn’t been good in years. Chance of anything happening: F+
Marlins – I don’t think Sandy Alcantara is that great. Do you? Maybe Caleb Smith if he backs it up. Chance of anything happening: D+
Cardinals – I could see them falling hard out of contention, but a part of me knows that won’t happen. Some scrappy guy will come up from triple A and spark their offense while their pitching remains solid as hell and they either win the division or the wild card. Probably the division. But if disaster strikes I don’t know who you target, Miles Mikolas? He’s nice, but I’m not sure about him being better than Odorizzi (He’s been good in the playoffs though). Chance of anything happening: D
Brewers – I don’t understand how a team has 1.5 starting pitchers and I still have to acknowledge that they will likely be in contention come July. If their pitching falls apart like I know it should but feel it won’t, they really have no one available unless Brett Anderson is pitching out of his mind. But then you’re targeting Brett Anderson to make a playoff start for you? I wouldn’t make that trade. Chance of anything happening: F+
Cubs – Yu Darvish is considered the guy, but I have never trusted his style of pitching. I saw it when he had a no hitter going against the Twins a few years ago and gave up a home run to Chris Hermann in the 7th. The following hitter was a broken down Justin Morneau, who also homered. The way Darvish looked so affected by the Hermann home run stuck out to me, and I feel like Morneau smelled blood, which Hermann noted in the link above. Darvish is (in my opinion) too cerebral, like a CJ Wilson or a Kevin Slowey. - Those guys can have good years but they won’t be the dumb hero you need to beat the Yankees.
Now Jose Quintana on the other hand, might be a good move as a rental. Chance of anything happening: B
Reds – You could see this season turning in a hurry. How often do the teams that “win” the offseason have good years? Never. Speaking of cerebral pitchers, Trevor Bauer is playing out the last year of his contract and has shut down the Yankees in the playoffs before. Chance of anything happening: C+
Pirates – Cerebral Chris Archer could bounce back, or perhaps cerebral Trevor Williams could be pried away (What is with the NL Central and nerd pitchers?) Chance of anything happening: C+
Dodgers – I doubt it, but the Dodgers pitching ain’t great and if say, Cody Bellinger gets hurt for an extended period this team could get into desperation mode. But Kershaw and Buehler aren’t going anywhere, Julio Urias would have to be pitching great, and if he was it would take Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff to even tempt the Dodgers. I don’t want Kenta Maeda, thank you. Chance of anything happening: F+
D-Backs – I don’t think they would trade Mad Bum in his first year, and the rest of their staff is very young and controllable. Is Robbie Ray good enough to start in the playoffs? I’m gonna say no- the Yankees don’t chase in the playoffs and strikeout guys with so-so control don’t tend to do well in that situation. Chance of anything happening: C-
Giants – Cueto and Samardzija could be available and the team isn’t going anywhere. I guess you have the whole first half to evaluate whether they have enough left, but Samardzija is unproven in the playoffs while Cueto was very spotty with the Royals and
A Frankensteined Kevin Gausman could be a better play, but he’s never pitched well for more than half a season. Chance of anything happening: B+
Rockies – Kyle Freeland and German Marquez are both big talents. Again, if they are pitching well they would cost a fortune, particularly Marquez since hasn’t ever been bad at the big league level. And if they aren’t pitching well then keep them away from ALDS game 2 against Luis Severino. Jon Gray was a 4.5 win player last year and might be a good change of scenery guy, but he’d be expensive for 2.5 years of control. Chance of anything happening: C+
Padres – The Padres need to add pitching- if they’re winning they need more to augment, and if they’re losing its because they don’t have enough. If Garrett Richards is pitching well I suppose you could ask about him, but the Padres really are a unique case. Chance of anything happening: F
 
After all that, my top 5 targets would be, factoring in the likelihood that the player's team is a seller as well as prospect cost:
1. Jon Gray
2. Charlie Morton
3. Mike Minor
4. Noah Syndergaard
t5. Lance Lynn
t5. Jose Quintana
 
Morton would be my #1 but I think it is less likely that the Rays punt than any other team on this list.

It looks like the pitching market is really shaping up for 2020 in terms of who is going to be available via trade. We have the Red Sox with David Price, Nate Eovaldi and maybe even Chris Sale. The Cubs may dangle Yu Darvish and there has even been some Mike Clevenger talk. Matthew Boyd continues to pop up; Robbie Ray, as well.
Beyond that I haven’t heard much, and that’s a shame because the hot item come July is rarely who we expect going into Spring Training. With the way teams prefer to retool as opposed to rebuild these days, it is, a lot of times the underperforming teams that went into the season as contenders that give away assets at the deadline. Look at the Yankees trading away Chapman in ’16. Or who would have thought Zack Greinke was on the block last year at this time?
It is true that it is generally the teams that are retooling or rebuilding who have players on expiring contracts that are the best bet. But my point is, what about if teams that we expect to contend, don’t? We didn’t expect the Red Sox to fall off so badly last year, the Phillies had all sorts of hopes pinned to them, as did the Mets, the Angels, and to a lesser extent the Padres and Reds. I won’t include the Cubs since they were in it till the end but there are always a couple of teams that either through injury or underperformance, just don’t do it that year. So I’m going to go through an exercise of finding out who might be available if the 2020 just ends up sucking for every team. I will skip the AL Central because 1) We aren't getting Clevinger 2) The Royals and Tigers don't have any assets unless you really love Brad Keller and Matt Boyd (I don't).
My criteria are that the player be at 3 or less years till free agency, and that he be better than Jake Odorizzi, since that's what it really comes down to when we inevitably face Gerrit Cole and the Yankees in October. Grades are for how likely the Twins are to end up dealing with said team. F= less than 0% D=0% C=3% B=6% A=10%
 
Yankees – Along with the Dodgers I would say the Yankees are the biggest locks to make the playoffs. We saw what happened when their entire team got hurt last year: 103 wins. Even if they struggle, their roster is so potent I can’t imagine they would punt on the season by July 31st. If by some stroke of luck they did, Masahiro Tanaka as a rental would likely be available pretty cheap. James Paxton is signed through 2021 so he could be had, as well, but at a much higher price. Chance of anything happening: F+
Rays – This is possible, as injuries to their bullpen, the aging of Charlie Morton, a sophomore slump for Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell unable to “prove it” would put a lot of pressure on their offense. And Hunter Renfroe may not work out as well as the metrics would predict. Snell is locked up through 2023 and Glasnow has got to be near untouchable, so that leaves Morton as a rental, which I like a lot (Except don’t get fleeced by the Rays like everyone else). Chance of anything happening: C-
Red Sox – Price or Eovaldi as a salary dump could make sense, although both come with huge health and performance related warts. I don’t see a Sale trade happening, and Eduardo Rodriguez has 3 more years. Although if he takes the next step and dominates he could be the best target of them all, though it would cost a fortune. Chance of anything happening: C+
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson has shown flashes, though no one seems to give him any credit for being a borderline ace in 2017 before getting hurt and then not being allowed past the 5th inning under Craig Counsell. I could see him having a bounce back and teams going after him, but it would require him figuring out his gopherball problems in the AL East... so maybe Matt Shoemaker is the play? Chance of anything happening: C
Orioles – John Means is probably dear to them after 2019. If Alex Cobb bounces back he could be in play, but would he be better than Odorizzi? Chance of anything happening: D+
Oakland – This team has talent and depth, so I don’t see them falling more out of contention than they usually do. If the worst happens, I suppose you could ask about Mike Fiers or try and give a king’s ransom for 3 years of Sean Manaea. Chance of anything happening: D
Angels – Suppose there were a situation where the Angels weren’t any good but Dylan Bundy and/or Julio Teheran were pitching well. Wait that actually sounds really likely. I mean not for both to rebound, but one? Sure, it’s a big park out there and the Astros won’t be stealing their signs. Chance of anything happening: C
Rangers – You have Lynn and Minor on expiring contracts in a division they likely won’t win. Absolutely, although it sounds like Minor loves Texas a lot, and Lynn would have to repeat being great for the first time in 5 years. Chance of anything happening: B
Astros – Can you imagine the mighty Astros playing .500 ball through July? It would require Verlander and Greinke to come back to Earth, the bullpen to realize Will Harris was their glue guy, Carlos Correa to keep getting hurt and Yordan Alvarez to just be a young player with power, not a young player with power who knew which pitch was coming. Add in the turmoil and distractions, a new manager and yeah it’s possible. But who do you get? Give them salary relief for either of the aces, or give a huge prospect package for McCullers? I’d probably lean for the former- Chance of anything happening: D-
Mariners – Marco Gonzales could probably be had, but again, is he better than Odorizzi? Not that he isn’t good, and durable, but he strikes me as a clear #3 or 4 and would cost a lot. Chance of anything happening: D+
Braves – They have a hole at 3B but Johan Camargo and Austin Riley aren’t nothing. They are stacked everywhere else so I don’t see them punting in July, but if they did Cole Hamels could be a rental, and Mike Foltynewicz could be available, depending on how he’s pitching. If he struggles then he’s cheap but you don’t want him. If he’s pitching like the #2 he can be, he’s expensive as hell and has a super inconsistent track record, so I’d lean towards Hamels if he’s pitching well and healthy. Chance of anything happening: D
Nats – Anibal might be the guy if the Nat’s offense realizes you can’t have a lineup full of #7 hitters and Juan Soto (You CAN have an offense like that if you add Anthony Rendon, as this is proven science). Anibal might not be better than Odorizzi on paper, but he performs in the post and wouldn’t be expensive as a rental. Chance of anything happening: D+
Mets – You go for Thor here when the Mets inevitably implode. Regression for McNeil and Alonso means your offense will likely struggle and although the top of the rotation is great, the bullpen and outfield defense is not even close. You know they wanted Buxton for 2.5 years of Thor, so 1.5 years would require what, Brent Rooker? I’d make that trade. Stroman just ain’t good enough for me, dawg. Chance of anything happening: C+
Phillies – I hate the way the Phillies build teams lately. You throw money at adding on to a contender, you don’t throw money at creating a foundation. Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola are your foundation pieces- that wasn’t enough then and it’s not enough now even after the additions they’ve made. Their lineup runs 7 deep and their rotation has 1 sure thing in it. Maybe 1.5 if you like Zach Eflin (Which I actually do). No depth, no NL East, no options for the Twins to trade for unless Arrieta has a big bounce back. Which he won’t- he hasn’t been good in years. Chance of anything happening: F+
Marlins – I don’t think Sandy Alcantara is that great. Do you? Maybe Caleb Smith if he backs it up. Chance of anything happening: D+
Cardinals – I could see them falling hard out of contention, but a part of me knows that won’t happen. Some scrappy guy will come up from triple A and spark their offense while their pitching remains solid as hell and they either win the division or the wild card. Probably the division. But if disaster strikes I don’t know who you target, Miles Mikolas? He’s nice, but I’m not sure about him being better than Odorizzi (He’s been good in the playoffs though). Chance of anything happening: D
Brewers – I don’t understand how a team has 1.5 starting pitchers and I still have to acknowledge that they will likely be in contention come July. If their pitching falls apart like I know it should but feel it won’t, they really have no one available unless Brett Anderson is pitching out of his mind. But then you’re targeting Brett Anderson to make a playoff start for you? I wouldn’t make that trade. Chance of anything happening: F+
Cubs – Yu Darvish is considered the guy, but I have never trusted his style of pitching. I saw it when he had a no hitter going against the Twins a few years ago and gave up a home run to Chris Hermann in the 7th. The following hitter was a broken down Justin Morneau, who also homered. The way Darvish looked so affected by the Hermann home run stuck out to me, and I feel like Morneau smelled blood, which Hermann noted in the link above. Darvish is (in my opinion) too cerebral, like a CJ Wilson or a Kevin Slowey. - Those guys can have good years but they won’t be the dumb hero you need to beat the Yankees.
Now Jose Quintana on the other hand, might be a good move as a rental. Chance of anything happening: B
Reds – You could see this season turning in a hurry. How often do the teams that “win” the offseason have good years? Never. Speaking of cerebral pitchers, Trevor Bauer is playing out the last year of his contract and has shut down the Yankees in the playoffs before. Chance of anything happening: C+
Pirates – Cerebral Chris Archer could bounce back, or perhaps cerebral Trevor Williams could be pried away (What is with the NL Central and nerd pitchers?) Chance of anything happening: C+
Dodgers – I doubt it, but the Dodgers pitching ain’t great and if say, Cody Bellinger gets hurt for an extended period this team could get into desperation mode. But Kershaw and Buehler aren’t going anywhere, Julio Urias would have to be pitching great, and if he was it would take Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff to even tempt the Dodgers. I don’t want Kenta Maeda, thank you. Chance of anything happening: F+
D-Backs – I don’t think they would trade Mad Bum in his first year, and the rest of their staff is very young and controllable. Is Robbie Ray good enough to start in the playoffs? I’m gonna say no- the Yankees don’t chase in the playoffs and strikeout guys with so-so control don’t tend to do well in that situation. Chance of anything happening: C-
Giants – Cueto and Samardzija could be available and the team isn’t going anywhere. I guess you have the whole first half to evaluate whether they have enough left, but Samardzija is unproven in the playoffs while Cueto was very spotty with the Royals and
A Frankensteined Kevin Gausman could be a better play, but he’s never pitched well for more than half a season. Chance of anything happening: B+
Rockies – Kyle Freeland and German Marquez are both big talents. Again, if they are pitching well they would cost a fortune, particularly Marquez since hasn’t ever been bad at the big league level. And if they aren’t pitching well then keep them away from ALDS game 2 against Luis Severino. Jon Gray was a 4.5 win player last year and might be a good change of scenery guy, but he’d be expensive for 2.5 years of control. Chance of anything happening: C+
Padres – The Padres need to add pitching- if they’re winning they need more to augment, and if they’re losing its because they don’t have enough. If Garrett Richards is pitching well I suppose you could ask about him, but the Padres really are a unique case. Chance of anything happening: F
 
After all that, my top 5 targets would be, factoring in the likelihood that the player's team is a seller as well as prospect cost:
1. Jon Gray
2. Charlie Morton
3. Mike Minor
4. Noah Syndergaard
t5. Lance Lynn
t5. Jose Quintana
 
Morton would be my #1 but I think it is less likely that the Rays punt than any other team on this list.