tony&rodney

Cole can say no to 7/252, but the Twins should still put it forward. Ryu is unpredictable, but an offer of 3/60 or 4/68 is an effort. Bumgarner for 5/100 is a ceiling for the Twins. It doesn't feel like these pitchers are keen to join the Twins. While I have no way of knowing, this feels like a difficult situation right now. Hopefully, there are opportunities to sign pitchers like Wood, Teheren, and Treinen as well. While I'm not at all opposed to big trades, there aren't any #1/#2 pitchers available and our young milb guns are soon to be ready; they just need another year. Maybe the Marlins could be cajoled to part with Alcantara. I'm holding out hope for one of the top three remaining to sign with the Twins.

I like Mike ... to hold down the number four spot in the rotation. This was a very good signing by the Twins, credit due to the front office.

Zero is the exact number of times Mauer tied the Twins hands. I suppose there are people who believe Trout hurts the Angels too. There is a limit the Twins could go for Cole and I really doubt anyone believes the team would consider $300M. If the whispers are true, we don't need to worry about Cole any more.

How high would you go for Cole? If I read this correctly, that is the topic. Leave Mauer out of it. So, how high? 7/$252M - maybe we lose out again.

The massive rise in the cost of the top free agent pitchers is really bad luck for the Twins. They are sitting with a strong core on the main club and some attractive potential working through the high minors. This would be the time to sign anyone that can help the Twins be better next year. The trades I am reading for Cubs, Gray, Ray and others could be very costly and I'm not convinced. Snell is not likely available but interesting. That leaves the Twins looking to trade from their current team. There are teams that need a C, 3B, and OF. do we consider trading Sano, Buxton, or Garver? I guess in a week we should all know if the free agents were too expensive and trades are necessary. So I will throw out a couple of crazy ideas: Berrios and Buxton to San Diego for Paddock, Gore, and Patina and Sano and Gonzalez to Atlanta for Fried, Pache, and Wright. I don't really like these ideas. I'm holding out for a signing of a FA pitcher.

... and Gonzalez, Avila, and Odorizzi - $31M plus the others - the money is there. Falvine are working hard to find someone (pitcher) who has a working pen.

"The owners takes risks ..." I'm just wondering when was the last time that an MLB team owner lost their team to bankruptcy court action or something akin to that? Yes, the players make huge money, like other entertainers - the public likes to spend their money on entertainment. I was thinking that only the San Francisco Giants among the four large professional sports organizations paid for their own stadium. Whatever, most arenas and stadiums are paid for by citizens and then the league/team agrees to play in that place. Not a shred of expertise in my experience about this, but just wondering .... what is the risk to owners? So, if the budget is $40M+ more than current expenses, then there is room for a big contract in theory.

You might be correct but this is very sad if true. There should still be a space for honesty somewhere in business. Idealism is not a synonym for naiveté, I don't dismiss the reality of your comment.

Moreland is more than enough for 1B. It's possible to cover 1B with those currently on the roster if the Twins need the $5M for pitching or the roster spot. The bullpen depends on what starting pitcher is signed. I think Treinen is worth a call but I like the young Twins pitchers to cover most of the relief pitching. A signing of Alex Wood and/or Julio Teheran could be promising and hopefully could be accomplished for around $12-16M for both. The Twins should check on Pittsburgh and the possibilities of adding Marte and Archer via trade. Heck, for that matter talk to Boston too. My gut says the Twins should hold their young guns and add a couple of pitchers via free agency. Sign Cole and be done.

No to Lester, Hendricks, and/or Bryant - just no. If the Twins are to trade prospects they need players who are currently effective and are able to contribute for three years. Unless the Twins have soured on Sano, there is already someone manning 3B. The Twins need pitching.

The Twins need to ask Boras if Cole wants/ is willing to pitch for the Twins. An honest answer of interest should be expected from Boras and Cole. If the answer is yes, 7 years at $36M per or $252M is about the limit of risk for the Twins.

"It doesn't matter that the money is crazy. The money is almost irrelevant. The Twins can easily spend $140M and still (will) turn a profit." I put forth this argument with an attempt to put aside the rationalization of what mlb players make and how this affects individuals view of the players and their performance. A team works with a budget and must analyze their decisions accordingly. Cole raises the budget the most and presents a risk. There are also rewards. The Mauer contract has been argued endlessly. I think Fangraphs best put this to rest, but quite naturally people have opinions. No way will I return to that discussion. I want the Twins to be better in 2020 because their core team is poised for excitement. Yes, some Twins will regress but others will repeat and still others will improve. The young milb players need a little more time. A Cole, Strasburg, or Bumgarner plus others signing (s) are inherently risky but will not break the budget. I'm not identifying any team willing to trade an ace, even for a boatload of prospects which would cause future financial hardship. The Twins were in on Wheeler precisely because he is a chance worth taking. He chose to go elsewhere despite the Twins' offer. Now the Twins need to pivot to the remaining pitchers. This is the winter to supplement the core.

The team is chasing Bumgarner and should absolutely be chasing Cole and Strasburg precisely because these pitchers push already signed pitchers down a notch. The Twins don't need any more number 3, 4, or 5 pitchers. I am not opposed to adding another pitcher or two/ three like Teheran, Wood or Treinen but Plan A is to "chase" higher. The payroll sits around $100M right now and there should easily be another $40M to spend for the 2020 team. Every conceivable effort should be expended now to attempt to add Cole, Strasburg, or Bumgarner. If none of these players wants to pitch for the Twins or the bidding pushes the budget well beyond $140M, then turns the eyes elsewhere.

The Pohlads are not opposed to spending money if they are going to make even more money. The Twins team as currently constructed is on the cusp; they are competitive to a point but need a boost. Signing a player or players to supplement the core will necessitate a payroll in the $140-150M territory. This works for 2020. A big contract cannot be mulled over as reasonable, especially because it fits into a budget of less than $150M. Of course these numbers are ridiculous. That is totally irrelevant. Cole or Bumgarner plus others are very doable this winter. A big contract can be signed now, and no it will not have future deleterious effects on the team's ability to compete. The time is now.

To add to Mike - It doesn't matter that the money is crazy. The money is almost irrelevant. The Twins can easily spend $140M and still (will) turn a profit. The core team is ready. I can agree that a failure to score runs in the playoffs last year was problematic but that is over. The Twins need pitching. Thorpe or Wood or Teheran and possibly someone else might be as good as Bumgarner. So what! sign all three (W,T, for $36M. Better yet, sign Cole. The money will not hamstring the Twins in future years. That much money and more comes off the books next year and the kids are coming and they are inexpensive. The time has come.

Cole for $245/7 Strasburg for $180/6 Bumgarner for $90/4 Ryu for $66/3 Next up: Teheran and Wood ... after trades. Hopefully it all stops with Cole.

Great article. The Twins need to offer Cole $245/7yrs. Done. If that doesn't work, sign Bumgarner for $90/4yrs and Teheran for $16/2 yrs and Wood for $16/2yrs. The paradigm of rational thought takes a break this winter because starting pitching is dear right now. A Cole (or the other scenario) signing finishes the front office' job for now. The Twins can rotate Garver, Gonzalez, and others through 1B. This is their one shot - the core gets supplemented and the young pups get a year to develop.

Baseball organizations have identified top pitchers as a need and difficult to obtain. Therefore, the money has gotten crazy. Meanwhile players like Cron and others are non-tendered. This is the reality. The Twins can go $140+ for next season and their core plus young guns need a little time which necessitates a crazy signing. Garver, Gonzalez, Kepler, and Sano can fill 1B as players move around to accommodate days off. Right now, it is all about the crazy attempt to sign Bumgarner .... or Cole or Strasburg. If the Twins are not successful and those pitchers sign elsewhere, then they turn to the trade front and others. Sign MB or GC.

True, without a Cole or Strasburg the Twins do not match up in a Game 1 and I am still hopeful of a C/S signing, but Bumgarner plus a few other additions would really strengthen the team in a 5 or 7 game series. Win the division first while going all out to sign whomever is interested in pitching in Target Field from the home dugout in 2020. A Bumgarner, Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, and Wood/Teheran plus young guns would play. Go hard at the big three: Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner - they can only say No. The budget should around $140+ for 2020.

The Twins are sitting pretty with their Odorizzi, Pineda, Avila signings and sit around $100M. There should be about $40M left. Sign Cole. If they cannot sign Cole, sign someone like Wood & Teheran. But this is about trades so ... Pittsburgh is willing to trade Marte and Archer. What is a reasonable return. Larnach, Cave, Thorpe, Gordon, Javier, and Rijo? We have no idea but if the Twins cannot sign a Big Boy then they will need to trade. What about Boston - Rosario and Gonzalez plus Gordon, Baddoo, Duran, and Enlow for Betts and Price plus $15M a year relief on Price? My choice is Cole for 7/245 and include an opt out after two years. What other trade ideas are out there?

The Twins still have options if they are committed to adding free agents to their core. Both Ryu and Bumgarner are available and the money is too. For that matter, so too is Cole - he is available. Re: trades - Wow, does anyone really think the Reds would trade Castillo? I love watching Rosario and am hoping Kirilloff is a masher, but I do the trade noted above (with Sands) if I am the Twins.

Still spinning off of mk's plan. The idea is to keep the core together and salvage prospects like Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, and Balazovic. A significant amount of money (@$50+/-M) comes off the books after the 2020 season. The team should be able to reduce payroll by somewhere near $20M next year with an insertion of a few graduates (bc, utility fielder, SP, and 1B) from the minor leagues. Thus, the budget is a two year plan. There are different paths to improvement but blowing up the core this winter seems too complicated and difficult. The Twins have held their money close forever and if there isn't money for the 2020 season, there never will be. The sale of the Kansas City Royals for $1 billion ought to convince everyone there is money for the owners in baseball. The current core of players must be supplemented with a couple of key free agents while keeping the young talent developing. The only reason to punt on Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, or Balazovic is if the Twins internal evaluations on these players does not match the hype. If this is true, then by all means the trades should flow freely and the 2020 budget can be significantly reduced to the $120+ range. I have no idea how the Twins or other teams value the prospects. My additions are four free agents: bc - Alex Avila for $4M, 1B - Mitch Moreland for $5M and two significant gambles on Madison Bumgarner for $20M/4 years and Gerrit Cole for $40/6 years. The trade: Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow, Jack Cave, and Nick Gordon to Pittsburgh for Starling Marte (per mk). I could easily substitute Ryu ($20M/3 years) for Cole if the numbers violate the guidelines. This would reduce costs to $138.0 M. Hitters: C - Garver = .6 1B - Moreland = 5.0 2B - Arraez = .6 3B - Sano = 6.0 SS - Polanco = 4.0 LF - Marte = 11.5 CF - Buxton = 3.25 RF - Kepler = 6.25 DH - Cruz = 12.0 BC - Avila = 4.0 OF - Wade = .6 IF - Adrianza = 1.6 UT - Gonzalez = 9.0 Hitter Total = 63.40M Pitchers: SP - Cole = 40.0 SP - Bumgarner = 20.0 SP - Odorizzi = 17.8 SP - Berrios = 5.2 SP - Thorpe/Dobnak = .6 CL - Rogers = 4.0 RP - Duffey = 1.50 RP - May = 2.50 RP - Littell = .6 RP - Stashak = .6 RP - Smeltzer = .6 RP - Dobnak/Thorpe = .6 RP - Graterol = .6 Pitcher Total = 94.60 Team Total = 158.0M

Never lost the love. Baseball is a drug. I bought a subscription to BA (a guy named Simpson, not Homer was editor I think) in 1983 and remember finding Twins' fans writing about 15 years ago (was either SethSpeaks or Gleeman - was click #11 on their counter) on the internet and have loved the coverage ever since. I never missed a pitch selling beer in the Dome for 3 years and have always found something positive to hold onto, even in really depressing seasons. Last season was pretty exciting and like everyone else I am hopeful for more.

I do not think there is a "next" scenario right now. Jow Mauer was an exceptional talent. Jaffe (@Fangraphs) has him at # 7 all time among catchers. Catchy and supportable; he was an amazing player. Who can envision a crazy trade? The cold weather catches us dreaming up nonsense ideas. Would a Buxton, Berrios, plus lower mler for Paddock, Gore, and Patina be crazy enough? How valuable is Garver or Sano to other teams? I can remember Liriano reducing Oakland's best hitters to dust in an April 2006 outing and Nathan's snorting like a horse was the prelude to exciting Twins' victories. Trades are difficult to pull off and I'm not sure there have been as many players in the 21st century as predictable for success as Joe Mauer.

Re: mk's plan A reasonable plan perhaps, but just keep Rosario and move Kepler to 1B. There seems to be several plans afloat as we all play around with the roster; keep the core or blow it up. Neither first time posters or those who write for the top blogs/sites really know what the Gm's plans involve at this point but it passes the time. Marte would likely require an additional piece though. Most of us are attempting to keep around $130 million as a nod to past Twins' budgets. I would personally like to see a $140 venture. Hitters: C - Garver = .6 1B - Kepler = 6.25 2B - Arraez = .6 3B - Sano = 5.75 SS - Polanco = 4.0 LF - Marte = 11.5 CF - Buxton = 3.5 RF - Rosario = 8.5 DH - Cruz = 12.0 BC - Avila = 4.0 OF - Cave = .6 IF - Adrianza = 2.5 UT - Gonzalez = 9.0 Hitter Total = 68.20M Pitchers: SP - Berrios = 5.2 SP - Odorizzi = 17.8 SP - Wheeler = 20.0 SP - Archer = 9.0 SP - Thorpe/Dobnak = .6 CL - Rogers = 4.0 RP - Duffey = 1.50 RP - May = 2.50 RP - Littell = .6 RP - Stashak = .6 RP - Smeltzer = .6 RP - Dobnak/Thorpe = .6 RP - Graterol = .6 Pitcher Total = 62.60 Team Total = 130.8M This is a twist on mk's plan, not my own.