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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. "He could go E-town/CR this year. CR/FM next year. NB in 2016 as a 20-year old. Knocking on MLB door at 21. That feels plenty aggressive to me." I've often wondered if you took Sandy Koufax at his prime and disguised him as a 17 year old how long would it take one of the best pitchers in history in his prime to make it through the system to the big leagues? Dwight Gooden went from 18 year old Class A straight to the big leagues and put up the same terrific numbers in the majors as he did in Class A. I'm not saying Thorpe is Koufax or Gooden but given that all the attributes Seth listed is where he sits right now, why is it a fast track to spend 4 more years in the minors before getting a shot at the bigs?
  2. Leery of lifetime .275 minors hitters batting .342 in small sample but he did have a great 2013 and very solid 2012. Don't expect .342 from him but would think he is capable of at least .260 which sadly would have made him the 2nd best hitter among regulars on the Twins in 2013
  3. "My floor for Dozier is quite a bit higher with the caveat that if he's anywhere near your floor, he's out of baseball entirely within 24 months." That seems fairly reasonable. I agree with the floor but think his ceiling is a bit higher. In fact, I will be quite disappointed if his OBP doesn't get above .330 with .270 average. Minor league OBP was .370 so I don't think .330 should be out of the question and certainly he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter if he is below that.
  4. "If he had a shortstop arm then he would be there now. The team would not be messing around with that. I think it would be a miracle if he became more than a 2b." I assume you are back to talking about Polanco right now. My response is that if he didn't have close to what is considered a shortstop arm then indeed they wouldn't be messing around with it so I doubt it is a Revere type arm. Punto had a 2nd baseman arm overcame it with quick routes to the ball and a quick release. He was average at short and very good at 3rd base. I agree with a poster above that if Polanco can be an average shortstop defensively and a good hitter (forget about power, can he get on base) that is better than a good fielder and below average hitter like Florimon. I have no idea if he can stick at shortstop but the Twins want to see more of him there. If it was so obvious that he could not play there then they would have cut bait on the idea a while ago so turn your sentence around. If he did not have a shortstop arm the team would not be messing with that. Easy to imagine someone writing off Omar Visquel at age 18 for not having a shortstop arm.
  5. "am looking at 900 at bats over 2 years, you are effectively cherry picking 297 at bats" "If you buy June on as the new normal for Dozier, his OPS was .786. Definitely a very good 2B. I am not ready to throw out the other 500 at bats and his minor league career. Outside of a good 2011 at A+ and AA, he was not impressive in 2010 or 2012 " Aren't you cherry picking his minor league numbers? His 2012 numbers were just for 181 at bats. His minor league numbers are quite good. .298 avg and .370 OBP and I believe his fall league numbers were great as well. He improved from 2012 to 2013 at the major league level and I think he has a fair chance of improving in 2014. No one has a crystal ball but I think some optimism is justified.
  6. Am hoping Dozier ups his batting average by 30 or so points which would make him above average for a middle infielder. Any chance of him moving back to shortstop in the future? Log jam wouldn't be a bad thing. If Rosario makes it he can always move to outfield and move Arcia to DH if necessary. Defensive outfield of Rosario, Hicks and Buxton would be elite. If Hicks doesn't make it then more rooms still for Rosario.
  7. I have theorized that his stance was just a little more open and it looked like he was trying to pull the ball. This would also make him weak on the outside pitches. In 2012 it looked like he was planning to hit the ball up the middle but he just naturally has a power pull swing. In 2013 it looked like he was trying to pull it. This "cheating move" could easily be a result of a sore knee.
  8. "I remember his first day like it was yesterday: Verlander threw him one big hook after another that Pitch FX said were six inches outside and the ump called him out on strikes three times. After that, he expanded the strike zone so bad he couldn't hit anything for 10 days," Again, I compare it to Valencia in 2010. He got a lot of seeing eye and infield singles so he didn't have to stress about his average and then started getting comfortable. Joe Mauer starting 2-26 is worlds apart from rookie Hicks starting that way. Though I know it would never happen I remember thinking at the time that maybe they should let Hicks skip the opening series so he wouldn't have to face some of the best pitching in baseball to start out his career. I also remember the umps screwing him and thinking the same thing you did. These guys aren't machines and things like that do make an impact on the psyche.
  9. I think you overrate the average corner outfielder. Span was a better than average centerfielder but his speed also made him a superior corner outfielder. He got to way more balls than Cuddyer could have and it saved a lot of outs even with Cuddyer throwing out guys. Buxton and Hicks would be a great tandem and allow our pitchers to throw strikes with a lot more confidence. If Hicks offense is not enough to support him being in a corner spot then it won't support him being in centerfield either.
  10. I do remember cautioning that Hicks wasn't the player that he showed in spring training just like I cautioned in 2011 the Valencia wasn't going to bat .350 for a whole season.. I don't think I objected to him making the team to start the season but I do remember the VAST majority of the Strib posters being very adamant that Hicks should be the Twins Opening Day centerfielder so either your memory was faulty or you were on different boards than I was.
  11. "Wasn't that what about 99% of us were saying about his situation just one year ago on February 1? And again, reiterated more strongly on May 1, after an April that yielded a 7.66 ERA. And again, reiterated on June 1, after a May ERA of 5.90?" Yes, and that is also why some of us were saying option years would have been preferable. Twins rectified that by signing him to two years now. I am still betting that he will be one of the top three pitchers this year so I think this will end up a better signing than people think.
  12. "Spend the money on the product go get some hitters " No problem but the only guys out there really were Cano and Shoo and I had no problem passing on them at those prices and the best one remaining is Drew. There just weren't many hitters out there in our positions of need. Who are the couple 10 mil a year rentals that we can get? I am all for spending someone else's money but would like have posters identify who they think it should be. "Find a couple hitters" isn't so bad as "Go out and get an ace or two" but it is still pretty vague.
  13. "I think it has just as much to do with his failing to hit very well in AA and there are doubts about him sticking at 2B." I assume you are talking about Rosario. Tore it up in A+. In double A he hit .284. Not awesome but hardly a fail..
  14. Lisa Guerrero. Huminah, huminah. Who would you most like to trade with? Scott Erickson or Erik Decker? Chicks dig the athletes.
  15. He ran into arm problems that year. He was 15-3 with a 2.36 ERA but then went 5-5 the rest of the way. I remember he was really nursing that arm along after July. Too bad or he was a shoe in for the Cy Young. From late August of 1990 to late July of 1991 he was definitely the best pitcher in baseball. Personally, I don't think he ever really recovered from those elbow issues though he did have some decent years later.
  16. I suspect that the Twins would be happy to spend $120 million a year to continually field a 2010 quality team. The problem is you can't just throw that money out there and get that quality. Twins aren't the only ones that are inconsistent with their message. Fans complain that we don't spend the big money but constantly criticize the contract of Mauer even though from the metrics I have seen reported on these pages he has produced enough to warrant it.
  17. Any chance of Dozier going back to shortstop? At some point I like an infield of Pinto, Sano, Dozier, Rosario and Mauer to go with an outfield of Arcia, Buxton and Hicks.
  18. How would you define how teams were built before free agency? Making trades with major and minor league assets still falls under my definition of building from within. We got Alex Meyer for Denard Span. That is still within my definition. If it has never been tried then where is the proof that it could not work? I promise you that if every team was stuck with only the players they developed themselves someone would still win every year and there would be some extremely good teams. Rays and Giants have been mostly built from within and the players they have let go have been just as good as the players they have acquired so whose to say it couldn't work.
  19. I agree with almost all of it. I like building a team rather than buying one and I like seeing the team going in the right direction. The issue I have is with this sentence, "almost every position on the field is either occupied by a promising young talent or will be soon enough". The most glairing position lacking in this description is shortstop. I have been wrong before but I don't see Florimon as the short term, mid term or long term answer. There is a free agent out there that would fit the short and midterm piece and probably without breaking the budget, now or later. Stephen Drew would be an improvement that would solidify the infield.
  20. I was a fan of Revere but as referenced above I agree that he needs to get on base .350 of the time to make up for his lack of power. His lack of arm is made up for by his plus speed defensively. Essentially though he has no value long term to the Twins since we expect Buxton, Arcia and Rosario to all be better than Revere. I am hoping May figures it out and becomes a quality starter but if instead he gives us exactly what Guerrier gave us I would not consider us losers in the deal unless Revere hits .350 with .380 OBP. Guerrier was a workhorse set up guy that helped anchor several quality bullpens in our Central pennant winning years. IMO he was underrated. Projecting to Guerrier quality is not a bad thing.
  21. There is a lot that goes into the psychology of the game so I am simplifying but in the long run the guy that hitches his pants and grits his teeth to keep guys off the base in the first place is going to be more successful than the guy that does so after guys are on. Mays ERA appears to be an issue of command and control rather than grit or competitiveness.
  22. I agree with your whole post but the most important is the last sentence of the 1st paragraph. Maddux or Morris could have been 10 times as gritty and competitive as they were but would have failed if they couldn't throw the ball where they wanted. Also, I often wonder how much of perception of grit is based on appearances. Scot Baker had the reputation of being a folder and lacking grit mainly cuz that's the way he looked on the mound but he was a terrific pitcher down the stretch in several pennant races. Locate your pitches and it doesn't matter how little grit you have. Throw them down the middle and it doesn't matter how much grit you have.
  23. Not being Ryan is a great reason to be worried about the walks. Walks have a way of unraveling pitchers. Walking guys with guys on base have a way of unraveling pitchers even more. Of course walks are more of a symptom than a cause. Not having command of your pitches have a way of unraveling anyone. Undoubtedly walks are the reason his ERA is what it is and why he has not progressed. Liriano is the guy you should compare him to. His successful years were much more a reflection of his walk rate rather than his strikeout rate. He struck out fewer this year per nine with Pitt than he did the two prior years with the Twins but he walked a lot fewer. Ryan had a spectacular curveball to go with a spectacular fastball as well as a larger strike zone. If May gets anywhere it is because he gains command of his pitches which will be reflected with fewer walks.
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