Riverbrian

Thanks Hammer... That was a good read... I always amazed by the differences between the different advanced metrics and those differences make me pause. I encourage the continued work on Defensive Metrics. I don't think they are cooked yet but I long for the day that they are. I've always been a big defense guy and I think fully cooked metrics will help prove my personal hypothesis of the importance of defense. I agree with the author when he wrote: "There are, I think, two larger points at work here. One is that seemingly trivial details can have large impacts on the results of “advanced” fielding metrics". As for Ben Revere and any questions about his range. I Offer this... Check out the video below: It's one catch... It's a small sample size... Does he get this kind of jump all the time... I don't know... Many claim he doesn't... But if he's capable of doing this once... He's capable of doing it again and (just a guess) maybe 1 or 2 OF'ers could have done this. So if he has jump issues... They are fixable. But for obvious reasons... You can't make Willingham do this ever. www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAts428eqQ0

It's not one zone... It's 64 Zones and each zone has percentages of balls caught based on league wide percentages of balls caught inside of each zone. If you boil it down to just one of the 64 zones for example purposes. Let's call it "Zone Brian" If across the league... 90 Percent of balls hit into that "Zone Brian" are caught. And Ben Revere or any CF doesn't make a catch in that zone where the ball is normally caught 90% of the time. The Weighting is going to kill him. And he may not make that catch because he was positioned strangely because of a defensive shift. When you consider that a CF makes 2 to 2.5 catchers per game on average and then you reduce it to how many of those 2 to 2.5 catches actually land in that particular "Zone Brian" and those small sample sizes are spread across 64 zones. One ball not caught in a zone is going to take a lot more balls caught inside that zone to stabilize it and it can take years. Because the Average CF catches 2 to 2.5 balls per game and the majority of them are going to be standard routine catches. That easily fit into that 90% league wide average of "Zone Brian". Or in Reverse... If Ben Revere makes a catch in "Zone Diehard" which the league wide average is 20%. Ben can be awarded because of positioning and again... it's going to take a lot of future data to stabilize it. If Ben or any CF is out of position because of a shift. He can be penalized or awarded severely for something that is beyond is control. And what happens when Chase Headley is playing a deep second on Jason Kubel. Is he now responsible for that zone around 3B. To my knowledge... Yes he is. Now if someone tells me that they figured out how to halo players based on where they are standing and have figured out how to assess speed, angle distance and height of a batted baseball. Sign me up! Maybe they have... If they have... Like Emily Latella... "Nevermind"

I was gonna let this drop and move on with life but OK... One more. If you believe that UZR is quotable... Then OK!!! My wife likes watching reality programming and I don't belong to that church either. However... I stated that I would take Ben back and I meant it... I would... You disagree and so does Brock and I assume others and that's OK as well. However... You responded to my declaration... with UZR metrics and when fed small sample sizes... It means very little to me. In your last post addressed to me... #61. You defend your view by stating "large samples tend to reveal true ability". I agree that there is some truth in that... However... In post #40... You quote UZR/150 for 2014. That's a direct contradiction to what you posted in #61. Without a significant sample size... I'll use my eyes and I'm comfortable with that. I think everyone should. Even with larger sample sizes... I'm not totally comfortable with the stat. My opinion... I don't think zone ratings handle positioning correctly. Luck is a part of it but I think positioning is the biggest flaw. Unless it has been refined... And I guess that's possible... But I'm not aware of refinement. It doesn't account for the shifting that takes place... It also can punish players for catching balls out of the zone because balls caught out of the zone as a result of positioning can also result in hits falling inside the zone based on positioning. Also... The dude (for lack of a better word) tracking the metric has to determine the degree of line drivedness and fly ballness of each ball put in play. You will find those opinions vary from dude to dude. Also... Consider that a MLB CF averages 2 to 2.5 PO's a game with the overwhelming majority of those catches routine and you can see its gonna take a long time to acquire enough data to produce a measurable variance that's worth talking about. Plus factor in 64 different zones that are used to compile the data and how many balls have to fall into each one of those zones to produce a variance and positioning becomes huge because one ball falls in and the whole model is screwed until more data is pumped in... The result is piling small sample size on top of small sample size because each individual zone further narrows the amount of data for an individual player because they use 64 zones. Therefore... Jamming routine data into a formula that is overwhelmed with routine result tends to produce swings in small sample sizes because if you stand in the wrong spot for one play... It nails you and the swing is going to be enormous. Hopefully that helps explain why I don't belong to the church. Now if you want to talk about OPS and OBP in regards to Ben Revere... It's a much more convincing argument and I'm on much more shaky ground. That's where I tend to plug my ears and say... I like him anyway. You just won't convince me that he is defensively flawed. From a moderation standpoint... Don't ask a question of me and then answer it. That's disrespectful. Of course I don't watch every Phillies games and you know that and I won't pretend to... but I watch a boatload of MLB baseball and I've seen the Phillies quite a bit. My opinion on all MLB players is earned. I've put the time in. I don't watch any minor league baseball and I think its clear that I go out of my way to not give my opinions on the talent of Sano or Buxton or whoever because I haven't seen them. I don't offer opinions on who the Twins should draft because I haven't seen them. I've seen Revere play... I have seen Bonofacio play... I have seen Seth Smith play... I've seen Hank Conger play more than once and I have an opinion and have the right to express it and I've put the time in.

Gyorko... A last name that should be pronounced wrong because of the spelling yet probably is never pronounced wrong.

If both of you are Emu's... Then... Yes... Yes it is.

Actual Things the Nurses told me: 1. Go ahead and take your pants off... The doctor will be around in just a bit. Wait... Not now... Not now!!! I gotta get out of the room first. 2. What'd ya mean... I'm not taking my pants off... You take off yours. 3. Sir... Put your pants back on... That isn't necessary... Your wife is in labor... Not you.

Hey C'mon now... I've been around a couple of births... Nobody comes out of that pretty!

Yep... All 3 of them

Canadian Gator Oops Sorry... That's my birth photo. I want to see of ChiTown comes up with an Ick or Ish

You are right... That'd be like trying to teach Bjorn Borg tennis.

(shakes head) We gotta give you some tempting fate lessons.

Yup... If Toledo wins the IL

In all seriousness... If elected commissioner of Baseball... I'd install relegation immediately. If your team finishes last... Down to AAA it goes.

Tanks for that... Great explanation... Tank you

Tanking... Teams tank for it.

No... One year they had the 2nd best odds and ended up drafting 37th.

Bases loaded for Suzuki

The T-Wolves got the 13th pick in the NBA draft... Obviously there will 12 clear 1st round potential superstars.

Eddie is a killer

Dont tempt the wrath of the whatever from high a top the thing.

I was gonna post that exact same thing... I got distracted... You win

I've said this before... Parm can play D... I don't know why people say he can't.

Eddie... The chicken will overheat in that costume.

Marnie is more experienced than Jamie... Timing is much sharper