CDog

Because they're both coming off of off-season surgery? Because poor training was the cause of either injury? Because...??

Maybe Gibson could become the first player to come back from Tommy John surgery and be effective.

I know 2010 was really really long ago, but...

If you're picking exceptions to his awful 2011, don't you have to pick his best start, and not his second best start? The "near" perfecto against Texas was better, I thought. Obviously that's a little tongue in cheek (hopefully it's obvious). But there is a point...he's SO hard to project because even when he seems to have turned a corner (2010, the couple of starts in '11 mentioned, plus a few other good ones, etc), or at least for the short-term harnessed what he has, he can stop the train on a dime and go the other direction. He's so high-variance, not only from year to year, but sometimes even start to start. I don't know if that will ever go away. And it will take even longer, almost by definition, before those of us observing can feel any sense of comfort in knowing what we'll get.

I was thinking today that it's possible that the Twins could be better or at least as good at every position this year compared to last. So I started thinking it over and tried to come up with some rough estimates and comparisons to see if it really was possible. Starting Pitchers: Carl Pavano becomes Carl Pavano. Pretty much steady Eddie. Can we assume he'll perform this year about the same as last? Difference: -0 wins. Scott Baker becomes Scott Baker. He performed great last year, but got limited starts due to health. Should we expect much else? Difference: 0 wins. Francisco Liriano becomes Francisco Liriano. One of the toughest guys to project this year, but I think we have to have hope he'll be better than last, or at least no worse, right? Difference: +3 wins. Nick Blackburn becomes Nick Blackburn. Supposedly healthy. Without even matching his two decent years before the last two he's an improvement over himself. Difference: +1.5 wins. Brian Duensing becomes Jason Marquis. BD didn't have a great year as a starter. Marquis should be able to at least replicate that. Difference: +0 wins. Relief Pitchers: Closer versions of Capps and Nathan become Matt Capps. Even if he's bad, he should be better. Don't forget how bad Nathan was to start the year, too. Difference: +1 win. Glen Perkins becomes Glen Perkins. Hard to expect him to replicate his '11, but he's the same guy so we can hope he's just as good. Difference: -0 wins. Jose Mijares becomes Brian Duensing. Looking at BD's numbers as a reliever and how bad Mijares was last year, have to think it's an upgrade. Difference: +1.5 wins. Setup versions of Capps and Nathan becomes Burton. Gotta hope he can at least be replacement level (or someone else can be). Difference: 0 wins. After that, last year was a mish mash of anybody they could try. This year will start out Swarzak, Maloney, and others. Has to be an upgrade, even if small. Difference: +0.5 wins. Lineup: Mauer/Butera/Rivera/Holm becomes Mauer and Doumit. Umm...Improvement? I might actually be going conservative with this large number when you consider what happened last year. Difference: +4.5 wins. Morneau/Cuddyer/Parmalee/Hughes/ugh...becomes Parmalee with pitch-in from Morneau/Mauer/everyone else. Hard to figure out how much of his value Cuddyer acheived at 1B and all that, but can we hope for a push here (especially when you figure just how bad Morneau was when he gave it a go)? Difference: 0 wins. Casilla/Nishi/Hughes/etc become Casilla/Hughes. Nishi took value away, Hughes may be a year better, Casilla could be healthier. Maybe a bit optimistic but... Difference: +1 win. Danny Valencia becomes Danny Valencia. Even getting part way back to his rookie year makes this an easy upgrade in the same body. Difference: +2 wins. Casilla/Nishi/Plouffe/etc become Jamey Carroll. Again this seems like a pretty easy upgrade. Difference: +2 wins. Delmon Young becomes Josh Willingham. Even with a bad year by his history, this is an easy upgrade. Difference: +2 wins. Span/Revere becomes Span. Span was really good for the first half last year and Revere did a better job than could be expected. Difference: 0 wins. Cuddyer/Kubel/etc become...I don't even know! I can't see the revolving door being quite as good as what was out there last year, but mostly I don't even know who will playing out there for how much. And the dream of the "as good or better at every spot" goes out the window! Difference: -1 wins. Thome and whoever else DH'd when he wasn't in the lineup (a lot) become Justin Morneau with pitch in from Doumit/Mauer/etc. Thome didn't play enough to make this as close as it could be. Should be an upgrade even if Morneau doesn't continue his late spring surge. Difference: +1 win. I'll take the bench as a whole since I think 73 people occupied the bench at some point last year. Gotta be better this year. Difference: +1 win. That all comes out to +19.5 wins (I think...it's late), which gets them to right around 0.500. I feel like before I started this breakdown, that's where my gut said they'd finish. So what are your thoughts? Where was I too optimistic or too pessimistic? I have some top candidates even in my own mind now that I have gone back and re-looked at some!

I was thinking today that it's possible that the Twins could be better or at least as good at every position this year compared to last. So I started thinking it over and tried to come up with some rough estimates and comparisons to see if it really was possible. Starting Pitchers: Carl Pavano becomes Carl Pavano. Pretty much steady Eddie. Can we assume he'll perform this year about the same as last? Difference: -0 wins. Scott Baker becomes Scott Baker. He performed great last year, but got limited starts due to health. Should we expect much else? Difference: 0 wins. Francisco Liriano becomes Francisco Liriano. One of the toughest guys to project this year, but I think we have to have hope he'll be better than last, or at least no worse, right? Difference: +3 wins. Nick Blackburn becomes Nick Blackburn. Supposedly healthy. Without even matching his two decent years before the last two he's an improvement over himself. Difference: +1.5 wins. Brian Duensing becomes Jason Marquis. BD didn't have a great year as a starter. Marquis should be able to at least replicate that. Difference: +0 wins. Relief Pitchers: Closer versions of Capps and Nathan become Matt Capps. Even if he's bad, he should be better. Don't forget how bad Nathan was to start the year, too. Difference: +1 win. Glen Perkins becomes Glen Perkins. Hard to expect him to replicate his '11, but he's the same guy so we can hope he's just as good. Difference: -0 wins. Jose Mijares becomes Brian Duensing. Looking at BD's numbers as a reliever and how bad Mijares was last year, have to think it's an upgrade. Difference: +1.5 wins. Setup versions of Capps and Nathan becomes Burton. Gotta hope he can at least be replacement level (or someone else can be). Difference: 0 wins. After that, last year was a mish mash of anybody they could try. This year will start out Swarzak, Maloney, and others. Has to be an upgrade, even if small. Difference: +0.5 wins. Lineup: Mauer/Butera/Rivera/Holm becomes Mauer and Doumit. Umm...Improvement? I might actually be going conservative with this large number when you consider what happened last year. Difference: +4.5 wins. Morneau/Cuddyer/Parmalee/Hughes/ugh...becomes Parmalee with pitch-in from Morneau/Mauer/everyone else. Hard to figure out how much of his value Cuddyer acheived at 1B and all that, but can we hope for a push here (especially when you figure just how bad Morneau was when he gave it a go)? Difference: 0 wins. Casilla/Nishi/Hughes/etc become Casilla/Hughes. Nishi took value away, Hughes may be a year better, Casilla could be healthier. Maybe a bit optimistic but... Difference: +1 win. Danny Valencia becomes Danny Valencia. Even getting part way back to his rookie year makes this an easy upgrade in the same body. Difference: +2 wins. Casilla/Nishi/Plouffe/etc become Jamey Carroll. Again this seems like a pretty easy upgrade. Difference: +2 wins. Delmon Young becomes Josh Willingham. Even with a bad year by his history, this is an easy upgrade. Difference: +2 wins. Span/Revere becomes Span. Span was really good for the first half last year and Revere did a better job than could be expected. Difference: 0 wins. Cuddyer/Kubel/etc become...I don't even know! I can't see the revolving door being quite as good as what was out there last year, but mostly I don't even know who will playing out there for how much. And the dream of the "as good or better at every spot" goes out the window! Difference: -1 wins. Thome and whoever else DH'd when he wasn't in the lineup (a lot) become Justin Morneau with pitch in from Doumit/Mauer/etc. Thome didn't play enough to make this as close as it could be. Should be an upgrade even if Morneau doesn't continue his late spring surge. Difference: +1 win. I'll take the bench as a whole since I think 73 people occupied the bench at some point last year. Gotta be better this year. Difference: +1 win. That all comes out to +19.5 wins (I think...it's late), which gets them to right around 0.500. I feel like before I started this breakdown, that's where my gut said they'd finish. So what are your thoughts? Where was I too optimistic or too pessimistic? I have some top candidates even in my own mind now that I have gone back and re-looked at some!

Where do we place our wagers? I'm thinking of a pretty big number.

I've seen a lot of this claim, despite never having seen anyone from the team claim this was the case. When the announcement was made that he'd be the left fielder, the reasons given were all about other players and not about Willingham.

At some point will there be a definition given of "tight managing" and then some examples of this occuring? Maybe something other than the equivalent of "I knew it when I saw it" would be helpful.

Got a gift in the mail from my dad's ladyfriend at Christmas last year with our last name misspelled. She's lived with him for over 8 years. It happens.

I don't equate "not moving someone as quickly as someone else might" to "animosity." Looking at Seth's timeline for Slama, it looks to me like every year they moved him up a level. He started his pro career older than many guys do, so maybe his older age makes it seem like he moved slower than he did. On the other hand, as a reliever he was pitching fewer innings per year to "prove himself" than a starter would. And then he had an injury that stalled his progress last year. Again, it's possible he should have been advanced faster than he was, but I don't have the insight to know if that's true. I think jumping to the conclusion of "animosity" is a reach, though.

It seems like you're treating every "chance" to have a concussion-type injury the same. I don't think that's at all the case. Also, I don't remember it myself, but I have read many times about a time Morneau was hit in the head by a pitched ball. This may be urban legend, and it isn't mentioned here. Anyone have facts on that? Third thought is that I think it's odd that when talking about the lineup implications, nobody really mentions that what's really happening if Morneau moves to DH and Parmalee gets most of the reps at 1B, that the person being "replaced" is Doumit far more than Morneau. And finally, I think almost everything I've read has been of the view that the "Morneau to DH" story has been to prevent concussions that could occur playing the field. If you actually look at what Morneau said in the interview, I think it's much more of a case that the grind and the wear on the body of playing 1B leads to greater likelihood of concussion symptoms recurring. I think that's the issue, and not another new concussion. Overall, I think your premise is fairly obviously true: that having Morneau hitting like a beast in the lineup is better than not. I hope he eventually takes over 1B again, but if he doesn't the clear next-best-hope is to contribute from the DH spot.

I feel like I'm answering the question, "Will the sun come up tomorrow?" But yes, he's going in. Thrylos98, I feel like you're answering the question, "Should he go in?" Which may be a more debatable subject, I guess, but to answer that question, too...Yes. Obviously very different situations, and I agree that the old codgers will consider them very differently even though, in effect, they really aren't, but Puckett only played 12 seasons.

Interesting that you point out those two, because I think those are the two I most think of when I caveat that the mood, the game, the night, the experience can sometimes sneak in and affect your thoughts on the park itself. I'd also say that it seems like Fenway is a "love it or hate it" place. But the entire day before I ended the night at Fenway was fantastic, the Red Sox came back from three runs down in the 9th to win it, it was one of those perfect summer nights that's the perfect temperature, and the people around us couldn't have been nicer. Contrast that with my (two) games at the Ballpark where it was so hot that even the locals were commenting and complaining about it, the Twins lost both games, including a 1-0 (I think) loss with Johan Santana pitching a gem only to have the Twins get something like 2 or 3 hits, and I waited for a sandwich at a concession stand for somewhere close to three innings. BUT...I will also say that of the "new" stadiums, I really didn't think the Ballpark itself quite held up, and I didn't like that you can't see the game from the concourse (again, this was probably a bigger deal to me given the aforementioned "Sandwichgate"). But I've often heard people raving over the place, so I'd like to go back and give it another try.

The thing I find interesting is that the fangraphs rankings are/were meant to reflect an entire organization's quality. That includes a lot more than wins and losses this year or last. The comments here seem to suggest people are searching to answer the question "Which on-field team will drop like the Twins did from '10 to '11?" And while that's an interesting question, I don't think it reflects what fangraphs was/is trying to rank. And to that end, it seems their process is flawed, at least when it comes to the Twins. One bad on-field season shouldn't matter THAT MUCH to an organization's health, should it? This isn't an atypical phenomenon, but I'd like to think the fangraphs folks are one of the standard bearers of avoiding that type of reactionary thinking. And just for the record, this year's fangraphs ranking had the Twins organization at #25, not 26. Things are looking up already!!

I found my list ranking them all (including parks that have been replaced, and in a few cases I've been to more than one in the same city). I've noted where I'm ranking a park no longer in use or where I've been to more than one. As I said before, I think they're so subjective. And even within an individual, I think with a sample of one for most places, the game you saw, your mood, your group, the weather, etc all can factor in to your feeling and aren't necessarily to the credit or blame of the park itself. Having said that, here's the "right" list! And as I said above, I will be adding the final two cities this summer... 1) Pittsburgh 2) Minnesota (Target Field) 3) Cincinnati 4) Baltimore 5) Philadelphia (Citizens Bank Park) 6) Boston 7) San Francisco (AT&T) 8) Seattle 9) Washington 10) Cleveland 11) Chicago Cubs 12) Colorado 13) Detroit 14) Kansas City 15) Chicago White Sox 16) Atlanta 17) Anaheim 18) Houston 19) Milwaukee 20) New York Yankees (Old Yankee Stadium) 21) Arizona 22) Texas 23) St Louis (old Busch) 24) San Diego (Qualcomm) 25) Los Angeles 26) New York Mets (Shea) 27) San Francisco (Candlestick) 28) Toronto 29) Philadelphia (Veteran's) 30) Oakland 31) Minnesota (Metrodome)

This summer I'll be going to games in Miami and Tampa, and that will complete the circuit of every city that has a major league team. Some of the ballparks I've been to have been replaced, so I haven't gotten to all of the current parks, but my favorite so far is PNC. The park and the views are simply gorgeous. The top few are all really, really amazing and aren't really separated by much other than intangibles and personal preference, I'd say. I compiled a full list ranking them from top to bottom. I should dig that up.