sweetmusicviola16

Watching "Moneyball", my take on Billy Beane's best quality as a GM wasn't his knowledge on analytics (that was Paul DePodesta's job); His best talent was initiating, negotiating & closing on trade deals. What really helped him was his ability & courage to think out of the (old school) box, using analytics to come out ahead in trades. IMO, now, the pendulum has swung far to the other side, where analytics drives the sport & "in the box" thinking is analytics. The analytical evaluation system that's biased on hitting HRs. If you were slow, a poor glove & struck out a lot, but you had at least the potential of hitting HRs, you had a great rating. If you thought outside this box, you were crazy.
IMO, the best characteristics for a GM are #1 to do the trades that are essential for the team to be competitive. #2 & 3 have good players evaluations & development. Correct player evaluation is key. Because correctly evaluating players will help you find essential players via the draft, the wire, FA & trade. Last but not least is to develop your young players correctly in the fundamentals of the game in the MiLB & reinforce them in the MLB. If you aren't good in all 3, you'd better find someone good who can head those areas that you are lacking. 
IMO, Falvey is lacking in every single one. Falvey is 100% analytical as he evaluates his players according to the above model of basically slow, poor glove & strike out a lot but had a big bat, that was his priority. That affected all areas of his control. Yet in all his years of GM at MN where are these "big bats" that were supposed to be developed? So you fill the system with these poor gloves, poor baserunners, bad ABs, no fundamentals, who can't hit HRs when you need them; what good are they? I have to give Falvey some credit, where he's starting to get away from the old mold & focus on more athletic players. If Falvey can't do these areas correctly especially trades & doesn't get anyone who can he needs to step down from the baseball ops & stick with the business (I don't know how well he's doing in the business side).

I haven't written a blog for a long time. But I have an observation, & that's all it is an observation. My observation is how rich the Latin heritage is in modern MLB. Players like Roberto Clemente, Luiz Tiant & Orlando Cepeda quickly come to mind. Twins' early successful years were greatly influenced by players like Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Camilo Pascual, Zoilo Versalles & Caezar Tovar, whom I loved to watch growing up. 
Throughout the years, we've had good Latin American players coming through the International Draft. Even recently, we had Luiz Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, Miquel Sano, Jhuan Duran, & Jose Miranda, who were all very promising prospects & showed early signs of greatness. While Latin players have been a viable source of our winning formula, I have to ask why our roster lacks them? They seem to put some of these players in difficult conditions to hinder their success, While the Twins love to hold onto certain players who fit their profile (many who IMO, should have been traded), they seem to be quick to trade away our valuable Latin players. I also question their International Drafting philosophy, where they focus on quantity over quality, they throw a bunch against the wall & hope something sticks. Which IMO, makes it very difficult with the Twins developing based more on getting data to the prospects & let them figure it out & less on essential good personal coaching. They have also gotten away from scouting & focus on analytics, which IMO, especially hurt our international drafting. Now I'm not saying that the Twins are biased, but I'm saying that maybe the Twins' analytics don't favor the Latin players.
I'm an old fart, I don't see baseball as fantasy baseball driven by biased stats or as HR Derby where whoever hits the most HRs wins. I love baseball because it's a strategic game played by human beings with emotions, variable intangibles & underlying conditions not hard & cold data void of all human elements. I see analytics is a valuable tool, but it should not drive the game. Latin Americans love baseball; they bring a lot to the game, and they shouldn't fall through the analytical cracks. Therefore, IMO, analytics should be put in it's place. Twins need to improve their scouting & developing, bilingual coaches should have a preference or maybe teach English better & integrate better. Buxton has expressed his desire to speak Spanish. Last but not least, IMO, I think the Twins' manager should be bilingual. This would be beneficial to provide continuity to the team. IMO, Nelson Cruz in some role should be a part of that.

I read somewhere on Twins Daily that the MVP for the Twins in 2023 was depth. After losing a lead in 2022, the Twins added several depth pieces to their roster along with keeping Carlos Correa after it appeared that he would leave due to free agency. Adding to the starting pitching staff by acquiring Pablo López wasn't directly adding depth to the rotation, but adding a solid starter moved Bailey Ober out of the rotation temporarily, so when injuries eventually occurred, they had Ober and Louie Varland ready as the sixth and seventh guys to take the ball. The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor and with Byron Buxton's inability to play center, that depth piece became a regular. Correa's signing meant that Kyle Farmer, pegged as the regular shortstop, could assume a utility role and the Twins signed Willi Castro, a speedy guy with the ability to play several positions, as another depth piece. Nick Gordon had flourished in the latter part of 2022 and was another player capable of manning several positions. Finally, the Twins signed Donovan Solano late in the winter. He proved to be a vital hitter with the ability to fill in at three different infield spots. 
Many, including myself, lauded the front office for the foresight to be ready for the inevitable injuries and underperformances. As mentioned, Buxton never got to center field and only played in 85 games as the DH, José Miranda, coming off a nice rookie year was both disappointing and injured and only played in 40 games, Projected starters Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff both started the season on the IL and went back on the injury list later in the season. Every position player starter spent time on the IL, one rotation member (Mahle) was lost for the season before the frost was out of the ground and yet the depth (and reinforcements) kept the Twins above water and finally carried them to a comfortable division flag. 
So, this year seems to be totally different. While the Twins appear to have a pretty solid 26-man roster, they have only added a lottery ticket to their bullpen. I know it's only January, but the lack of activity seems telling. There hasn't been any speculation that the Twins were in on a substantial free agent. The club has announced they will be cutting payroll, perhaps to the point that any payroll additions would have to be countered by subtractions. There hasn't been a replacement added for either of the two rotation members who left by free agency and so far no activity to bolster the center field mix minus Taylor. It looks to me like the Twins are going to try to fill these gaps internally, a complete departure from 2023. 
I have belief that players on the roster or in St. Paul can fill those gaps. I think Austin Martin will be a capable outfielder with good speed and bat to ball skills. I think Miranda will come back and capably fill the role that Solano handled so well in '23. I think Brooks Lee will be a future star as soon as this year.  I expect that the current five-man rotation will be among the best in the American League. However, beyond those just mentioned, my confidence is not nearly as high. There will be injuries to the pitching staff and to position players. Most everyone on the 40-man roster will be on the major league roster at some point in the season. I don't see the proven depth to step in when the inevitable rash of injuries occurs. 
I guess the front office is gambling that a) injuries will be manageable and b) the internal options will adequately fill the gaps in the Opening Day roster. I am not so sure, but do understand how tough it is to acquire the help needed with the payroll constraints. 

Late last night we heard rumblings of a deal held up due to a questionable physical between the players exchanged with the Dodgers, Red Sox and Twins. This morning we found this to be true, as Ken Rosenthal confirmed. The deal is currently in limbo, as we wait to find out the next step between the teams exchanging Mookie Betts, David Price, Kenta Maeda and Brusdar Graterol.
 
Rosenthal reports today that the physical in question is that of Brusdar Graterol's. What is truly ridiculous is the wording given behind the hold up. Essentially Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have decided that they see Graterol as a reliever long term. Totally fine. What's the next step the Red Sox take however? Of course, they're asking for more.
 
Graterol was already reported to be Boston's number one prospect if the deal went through. The 21 year old flamethrower hovered around the 3-5 mark in the Twins system. They also received Alex Verdugo, a 23 year old who put up 2.2 wins in only 106 games last season. It may not seem like a lot for Mookie Betts and David Price, but Boston stands to lose Bett's for nothing but a draft pick. As for Price, his injury history is arguably worse than Graterol's, with the difference being that he's 34 and owed almost $100m over the next 3 years, all to be paid by the Dodgers if the deal goes through.
 
The Red Sox have watched teams around them improve all offseason. Meanwhile, it seems that their goal has been to offload Betts. They even brought the Twins in on it to be a third team to make things work. They likely identified a piece they wanted in return, ultimately being Graterol. His injury history was public knowledge up to this point. The Twins even announced that they were using him in the bullpen going forward. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that they get down to dotting the i's and crossing the t's and all of a sudden have an issue with all of this.
 
This leads me to my point for writing this other than to rant about the Sox trying to gouge our Twins farm system. I love Kenta Maeda and was very excited to have him pitching in a Twins jersey. That being said, he's projected to slot in as our number 3. Very valuable, but there's a cap on that value. I also love Graterol and was sad to see him go. I believed it was a fair trade, though I recognized that there was a chance the Twins already regret the trade down the line.
 
The Twins were already projected to win the Central fairly handily before acquiring Maeda. Maeda however, didn't even move the needle that much.
 

 
The Twins were trying to be active in the trade market, but this isn't a bona fide ace that's fallen into their lap. The front office shouldn't be pressured to feel like this is a deal that needs to be done at all costs. Worst case scenario, Graterol is throwing 100 mph gas out of the bullpen to open the season and we continue to pursue trades elsewhere.
 
For the Red Sox to ask for more than Verdugo and what would be their number 1 pitching prospect, a 21 year old flamethrower who's already showcased his ability to get outs at the Major League level, is ridiculous. They're likely sitting in 3rd place in the east in 2020 with little salary space to work with (which they suddenly care about). They're in no position to decide a top prospect's future mid trade and demand more.
 
If the Red Sox want to play hard ball and pretend they hold all the cards, I say let them. Let them try to compete with the Yankees and Rays who make active attempts to get better while the Sox sit dormant for the next 3 offseasons while being weighed down by the remaining $96m owed to the 34 year old David Price. Let them enjoy one last season of Mookie Betts before cashing him in for a draft pick. Don't offer another piece, whether it's cash or a prospect. If Graterol is wearing a Twins jersey to start 2020, that's far from a failure.