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Crackedfungo

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  1. Hildenberger's opportunity has passed. Unless he were to string together a number of weeks in the minors with no runs and low hits, I would not even consider him now or in the future. It is time for Graterol to be added as a reliever, and for Smeltzer and Thorpe to take over Perez's spot. I would not bother with O'Rourke, either, unless there is a string of weeks of innings with no runs. I don't care if he is a lefty either; bring in the loser of Thorpe/Smeltzer instead. I am over the retreads....We need to win and to build experience
  2. I'll just note the following, we can agree to disagree: 1) Berrios, then sign two of Gibson/Odo/Pineda. If they 'don't want to sign,' focus on another of the three or pay a comparable pitcher as a FA - $12-$15MM. (I don't see a huge market for any of the three, and perhaps they will stay with the right contract - we have the money with Castro coming off payroll). Perez has an option. If he continues to pitch like crap for the balance of this year or early next year, find an alternative that is a 'prove it' candidate, or if warranted by more than one of those from 2 below, bring another up. (BTW: You never referenced the rankings of all the 'must have' pitchers - they don't look like 'sure things' either - where do you suggest finding one premier SP or 'up and comer' that is a near certainty, and at what level of 'over payment' in prospects and dollars? What do you think it would take, and what would you be willing to give up for Darvish, Arrieta, Sale, Stroman, or Keuchel type numbers? 2) No. None of the 7-8 I had referred to are actually 'in the door' until they are off the shuttle when their innings are exhausted and starting without a quick trip back to the minors. I would let Thorpe and Smeltzer prove they can/cannot handle the 5th starter spot for first two months, then bring up Graterol (assuming health - no point in letting him languish in the minors or letting him be jerked around like Romero until his value plummets). Colina, Duran or Balazovic may be ready by later in the year - maybe not. But, there is little need for every pitcher to make a pit stop in AAA - the best just don't need it. Not sure where ours will fall, but Colina seems to be handling AA just fine with 60+ innings. 2) Rooker will likely strike out more than Sano in first few years of MLB, and is no 'gem' in the OF - less capable to hit .280, slower, less arm. I simply don't agree. Nor do I think Marwin is any form of insurance for Rooker or reasonable replacement for Rosario (on the field or in the clubhouse). He is also needed in too many other positions versus LF. Neither AK nor Larnach will be ready yet either to replace Rosario...Don't they need the proverbial AAA stop as with pitchers? Surely, they are 1.5-2.0 years away given their AA experience and performance. 3) So, jury already out on Dyson? I wasn't impressed with SSS, but hunting for two more reasonably capable relievers can come from a better than Addison Reed FA signing, or a lower cost trade; a couple of players ranked 10-20. Did you see how many of the 'top tier' relievers or 'second tier' were washouts or unmitigated disasters this year? I would not trade a borderline All Star everyday player for one RP, unless a Pressley type (and that won't likely happen - it will require an overpay to get a Pressley). Many relievers that fare well are 'found' as failed starters, or buried under aged tinder on other teams (our analytics group and Falvey are supposedly great at finding these types - they need to prove it) 4) I disagree on stale. Romero has become stale, as were many of our relievers from the past that were constantly trapped by cast-offs and cheap signings: (Morin, Drake, Duke, Abad, Boshers, Fien, Belisle, Breslow, Melville, etal). It is past time to see what these younger assets have to offer; whether they are Littel, Romero, Eaves, Poppen, Gonsalves, or Stewart. I would also move Romero back to SP, as the RP experiment isn't yielding any dividends. I wouldn't rule out a Hackimer possibility either late next year. He has better stuff than Hildenberger did. In short, as illustrated for this year by their ranking in my original post (go back to Arrieta, Darvish, Keuchel, Sale - all 30-60), buying a high-priced and high-mileage SP provides no assurances whatsoever, and they only pitch every 5th day. RP is kind of a mixed bag of unattainable performers that are cost prohibitive, or a 'converted' pitcher that is 'found' by the developing or acquiring club. An everyday player high-value asset traded (plus a high prospect) with no realistic back-up(s) of comparable ability is not a sound strategy. We can dispute 'high value asset,' but I put more stock in Rosario's performance and league-wide rankings than the opinion of any poster on TD. FWIW
  3. Hope is not a strategy, and given the struggles in moving up levels for all of our OF prospects, there is almost 0% chance that comparable performance will occur before year 3 - this is BY FAR the biggest jump, and pitchers will challenge them and adjust to what they do best. (And don't bring up Arraez, he has not really struggled to hit at any level or adjust - he seems unique). Additionally, it would be unwise to ignore clubhouse impact - I don't think you want to disrupt any of the core of; Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, or Berrios until they prove that they cannot win together. They are all close, and have won in the minors together. It reminds me of the Hrbek, Bruno, Gaetti, Viola, Puckett years. Let them prove they cannot do it in their peak years, prior to breaking them up. I would add to the core, not subtract from it. It reminds me of the outburst for the mere cutting of Morin - the team does not want their mojo interrupted by Front Office decisions.
  4. I would re-sign two of them, and pick up the option on Perez. Then, I would bring up the best of the 7-8 that are knocking on the door and stick with the one whom adapts the best. Right now, though ERA is NOT the end all for pitchers, our starting pitchers are 7, 23, 38, 44, and 59 in ERA. That is among 30 Teams of 5 starters each. For a comparative, Keuchel (would be 30th if he qualified), Syndergaard is 35, Darvish is 49, Arrieta is 53, Wheeler is 54, and Sale is 62. At one time or another, many on this board have salivated over these pitchers, many of which cost over $20MM/year. Many also want to trade significant assets for them (Rosario, Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, etc...). My question is why!?!? IF you can sign two of Gibson/Pineda/Odo and pick up the option on Perez, why would you bother investing proven MLB players or top MiLB prospects for these high-cost and high-mileage pitchers with these types of results!?! If you say it is just a 'down year' for this group, I ask you whether you would feel good trading a premium asset for a declining asset that is also going to cost you close to Mauer money (Darvish, or Sale)? Not me. You could lock up two of our three FA pitchers, whom are paid $5MM, $8.1MM, and $9MM respectively, for a great deal less than any of the above, say $12MM-$15MM, and you would be in better shape than all but a few teams (and you would not have to sacrifice an asset). That is assuming they maintain performance, but you have the same concern with these older high-mileage options, as well. Moreover, when are we going to open 1-2 spots for a young pitcher that is controllable, talented and cheap (from among Smeltzer, Graterol, Duran, Balazovic, etc), and might be the next Cole, Syndergaard, or Sale? Waiting too long can cause the prospects to go stale in AAA (see Stewart, Gonsalves, all the relievers like JT Chargois, Reed, Burdi, etc), and cause significant 40 man issues. This is a build for the long-haul, and even though I might want to 'go all in' in a year like this one, I don't see the pitcher out there this year (or this winter) that might be anything more than a reasonable replacement for a cheaper internal option. And, as far as the playoffs go, we have seen some very good pitchers get shelled in the past few years of juiced baseballs - this year may be the worst yet.
  5. Standing applause. Two Dogs gets it. There will be options next year to see what Larnach, Rooker, and AK can do. Trading Rosario is NOT the way to 'get their feet wet.' They are still more than 2-3 years from being a reasonable replacement (if we are lucky). I would not have traded Rosario or Buxton straight up for Syndergaard either. He is no better than 3-5 of our starters this year, and not nearly as good as Berrios. (His past years are in the past unless he proves otherwise). Wasn't he the board's MOST coveted starter via trade and above MadBum? Who does the board think they could get as a Top Line starter for Rosario and a 5-10 ranked prospect?
  6. The point wasn't that we have to find a spot for everyone of these pitchers, but one-two of them will be able to deliver 4.40-4.80 ERA, and 20-30 starts right out of the gate, or they will be optioned for one of about 7-8 other alternatives NEXT YEAR. You will have Berrios, and at least two-three of Odo, Gibson, Pineda, and Perez (one has an option, two others will be re-signed is my guess). As for OF, you have to replace a borderline All Star (in trading Rosario), and expect 1 of 3 OFs to replace that level of DAILY production in their first or second year in MLB? I don't see it.... You are also not going to get a front-line starter without Rosario, and two Top 5 players. Look at the trade deadline moves or lack thereof, for a guy that takes the ball every 5th day. I sure wouldn't do that for an everyday borderline All Star and have only HOPES for a high end MiLB talent to produce in Year 1 or 2. Losing proposition. You also never know what you are going to get - all those starters and relievers we wanted going into this year and last have rarely panned out (Kuechel, Arrieta, Darvish......take your pick of relievers - NO THANKS). Need to re-sign what we can, and grow our own. Just my $.02
  7. One other question: IF you are down by one with a man on first with advancement on the line in the playoffs (2 outs, bottom of the 9th, winner take all), who do you want up to bat? 1) Kepler 2) Buxton 3) Sano 4) Polanco 5) Cruz 6) Rosario 7) Arraez/Cron/Garver/etal I am taking Rosario every time. He has delivered (in both minors and majors), and thrives in these moments. How did you feel about Aaron Hicks sticking it to us in the Yankees series a few weeks back? Rosario would shove it up our backside worse than Hicks.
  8. Wow.. Eddie is the most energetic guy on the team. He delivers in the clutch, and is both a hitter for average/power, with above average speed/arm, who is also playing through a nagging ankle injury. There is a certain brashness to his play - BIG DEAL, it makes him who he is in the clutch. He is also a VERY good baseball player. We DO NOT know if AK, Rooker, or Larnach can hit MLB pitching yet. In fact, each has struggled a bit moving up a level. MLB is the BIGGEST jump, and Rosario is a borderline all-Star every year. You people are clueless to blow this dog whistle again. I heard this same crap on TD a couple of years ago about Rosario, which abated as he tore up league pitching, yet here we go again. We are also pitching quite well with at least 3/4 - 4/5 of the starters, and are going to need spots for Smeltzer, Graterol, Gonsalves/Stewart/Thorpe, Balazovic and Duran within two years or less. So, you are proposing to trade a proven player like Rosario for a vet high mileage pitcher (this winter) and HOPE Larnach, Rooker, or AK don't take 2-3 years to figure out what took Buxton, Hicks, and others at least that many? Glad we have no FAN GMs in charge.....I vote 'no' on trading our proven players for high mileage (overpriced) pitchers that may not even perform to Gibson or Pineda level, and only pitch every fifth day.
  9. To me, this is a trashy and baseless article. One All-Star game, one major injury (a rod in your plant leg is pretty bad, and he had Tommy John before the majors - which slows development in missing parts of 3 seasons). A few minor off-field incidents, and the struggle to make contact as a just-turned 26 power hitter. Nothing to see here in terms of fading. He is acclimating. Buxton is too. I think it took Twins HOF Hunter until 25-26 to become a decent player. Sano is 26. I am SO tired of these negative articles. There was one about Rosario ever sticking (too swing happy) only 18-24 months ago. How is that crow tasting? Sano will adjust, and be fine. He also plays a pretty fine 3b when in shape - that arm is NOT replaceable. I still see expectations of 40 hrs/year, batting .270-.280. That is a centerpiece of any team - a Star. I played a lot of baseball. Baseball is hard to stay consistent and focused with any health or other issues where you miss 100s of at-bats.
  10. When I look back at some pitchers that I thought were going to be almost 'sure things' or at least 'decent' in past MLB Drafts; Kyle Zimmer, Riley Pint, Ashe Russell, Mike Nikorak, Brady Aiken, Mark Appel, Trey Ball - It is REALLY eye-opening in terms of the high TOTAL failure rate of 1st round pitchers (HS or College, injury or not). Thus, the point of taking many, and hoping a few pan out, seems to be the optimal approach. There just isn't a 'sure thing'. It also shows that Jay and Stewart could have been bigger busts than they were (never mind Adam Johnson).
  11. Its the better pitching they will face in the next years (and their adjustment capability) that worries me - contact - not their power, which is plus and plus/plus. I want a young pitcher to balance out the vacuum in the Rookie and Low A levels - high school pitcher for me better be in Round 2, and I hope they have saved some $ to make it happen.
  12. A homer pick. Disappointing....he is good, but I think we needed a pitcher
  13. Not sure that the draft is going the way the Twins (and us) hoped it would. A couple of the high school P's we were hoping would be around are vanishing - unless they are looking at Barco or Leiter's kid, or they are going to break the bank with Allan, or roll dice on Wolf
  14. I know about the sites that projected him as a relief pitcher in past years. However, after 3 (2 very) quality starts last year, and a few clunkers as a rookie - they are throwing in the towel this year as a SP?!? For potentially Gonsalves, Littell, or Thorpe (I think Stewart will be solid this year)? On what MLB basis would that judgment be made? I witnessed ALL of his starts, and those of the other rookies, and he was MILES ahead of them in terms of stuff, pitchability, stamina, etc. Makes ZERO sense at this stage. May is the closer type that Romero MIGHT be. Romero should be a great complement to Berrios - and he had a much more inglorious set of starts than Romero in his rookie year (ERA around 8). I am not sold on our pitching decisions/projections AT ALL.
  15. I am just baffled at how Romero has gone from our Top starting pitching prospect last year, to a call-up that had a scoreless inning streak that was over 18 innings, encountered some tougher games later, was demoted, ran down a bit towards the end of the year, and is no longer a starter in 2019. Moreover, he has clearly been thrust into a reliever role that he has never been in during his minor league career, and is an afterthought behind Littell, Gonsalves, and even Stewart (who pitched better than the previous two) only 1/2 later. What could they have possibly seen to change their opinion of Romero, while still holding the other 3 as better long-term starters. If it is diversity of pitches, I'm sorry, but simply having a few more pitches that are woefully ineffective just does not project as a better starter. Moreover, the Twins don't do a great job utilizing young relievers, as they would rather recycle old retreads versus promote younger pitchers. How does anyone validate what the twins are doing with Romero - I just don't get it.
  16. , Gonsalves, Littell and DeJong can be other alternatives as short starters or relievers (in that order). We need to see what we have here and clean up the 40 man before the next wave is knocking on door
  17. I don’t think either Reed or hildenberger return to former levels. Reed had a better shot, but only if he recaptures velocity lost. Hildenberger just doesn’t have the ‘stuff.’ I am betting our 2nd or 3rd best reliever will come from Stewart (Sinker and 94mph), or Romero Slider and 99mph). This assumes neither makes it as a starter. I would not pick up my more ‘innings eater’ or ‘crafty veterans.’ Let the friggin kids play finally - I have no interest in watching the Belisle types struggle and fail. I would rather see a young kid struggle, fail, and learn
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