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    2015 Breakout Prospects

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    It's hard to argue with the breakout season Jose Berrios put together in 2014. He dominated the Florida State League and held his own in the Eastern League while being 4 1/2 years younger than the average pitcher in that league. He was already a top ten prospect in the organization but he solidified himself as one of the top three pitchers in a loaded farm system.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (photo of Stephen Gonsalves)

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    Berrios was just one of the team's prospects to do well in 2014 as other prospects also put their names on the map. Adam Brett Walker smacked a ton of home runs in the tough Florida State League. Eddie Rosario missed time at the beginning of the season due to a drug suspension but he ended the season on a high note as one of the best hitters in the Arizona Fall League. There were many other prospects who also had solid seasons.

    Here are three of the Twins top prospects that I think could follow in the footsteps of Berrios and have a breakout season in 2015.

    Stephen Gonsalves- LHP

    2014 Team(s): Elizabethton Twins, Cedar Rapids Kernels

    3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 65.2 IP, 70 K, 21 BB (14 Games)

    Gonsalves, a 2013 fourth round pick, made it all the way to Low-A this season as a teenager. He continues to show the ability to strike out batters. He can hit the 90's with his fastball and he can counter with a good change-up. His other breaking pitch still needs some work but he will be able to develop that as he progresses through the system. In his first five outings at Low-A, he posted a 1.57 ERA over 23.0 innings with 21 strikeouts and only four walks. To put those numbers in prospective, he was three years younger than the average of the other pitchers in the Midwest League.

    Travis Harrison- OF/3B

    2014 Team(s): Fort Myers Miracle

    .269/.361/.365, 3 HR, 33 2B, 59 RBI, 80 R (129 Games)

    The Florida State League can be tough on hitters and this could be one of the reasons Harrison's home run total dipped from 15 in '13 to 3 this past season. The former supplemental first round pick continues to get on base at a very high rate and he's shown the ability to take the ball to the opposite field. His strikeout rate continues to drop and he played a new defensive position (left field) this season. He will be 22-years old for all of next season and he should be more comfortable playing his defensive spot. This could result in some big numbers for Harrison at Double-A.

    SLEEPER PICK:

    Amaurys Minier- OF/1B

    2014 Team(s): GCL Twins

    .292/.405/.520, 8 HR, 11 2B, 33 RBI, 25 R (53 Games)

    It can be tough to have a breakout season in the lower levels of the minor leagues but the Twins have seen players like Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano have huge seasons after coming out of extended spring training. Minier has big power from the left-side but there might be some holes in his swing as evident by his 52 strikeouts this season. If his approach can improve as he moves up the ladder and he makes some positive strides on the defensive side of the ball, he could be vaulting up Twins prospect lists during the next off-season.

    For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

    Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!

    View Twins Top Prospects
    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    jokin

    jokin 4,237

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

    As a Minnesota transplant that now lives in Florida,  I enjoyed going to Miracle games and watching Berrios and Walker.   I think in time they will be major league studs, one name though that is not to be ignored is Jorge Polanco.  He can flat out pick it albeit with some errors, but I think that will get straightend out in time, so thats my vote.

     

     I admit that I come in with some confirmation bias on my part, but I'm really with you on this one, Transplant.  I only saw him play one minor league game in Cedar Rapids, but that was enough to convince me.  Too many people are too dismissive of what he accomplished this year (including Terry Rayn), especially considering that this was the first year he has been primarily at SS.

     

    I've documented it elsewhere, but I'll say it again, based on how he closed out the 2014 season, he has the best chance to be the guy who comes out swinging in Chattanooga and end up banging on the major league door by July.  People, including Terry Ryan, are under the impression that he struggled after his promotion to AA.  But if you break it down in half, here's what happened:

     

    First 18 games-  .214/.225/.257/.482   BB% 1.4% K% 19.2%

    Last 19 games-  .347/.413/.431/.844   BB% 10%  K% 17.5%

     

    Yes, it's only about 160 PAs, but the contrast is still pretty striking, and confirmed with the spike in improved plate discipline.  And although he's been in a little slump lately in winter ball- plus acknowledging the sketchiness of the winter ball numbers, he's still slashing at .328/.394/.469/(863), which would put him in the top five or better in every category, if he qualified. And there are some pretty good players in that Dominican league that he's up against.

     

    Put him in AA in April, plus with a little head start on all of the rest of the studs that will be joining and surrounding him in the Chattanooga batting order, plus the hitter-friendly Lookout ballfield, it's easy to envision a big bustout for Jorge.

    Edited by jokin
    bird

    bird 6,189

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     The depth in truly promising prospects is so impressive. Roughly 30 prospects have been mentioned in this thread not named Buxton, Meyer, or Sano, let alone Arcia, Santana, Hicks, May, or Vargas. Only a handful of them are flyers. Go over to the Tiger's prospect sites and see if you can find even a dozen such prospects, especially since they just traded two of their top 10 prospects for a pitcher whose ceiling is arguably lower than that of Trevor May.

    Edited by birdwatcher
    lightfoot789

    lightfoot789 147

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Have the Twins ever had another minor league team in recent history that has had the talent that the Chattanooga Lookouts will have at the start of the season (Position Players)?

     

    Once those top prospects move on to AAA or the MLB - That is when your true Breakout Prospects will come to light for the "Lookouts".   I agree with the Brett Lee pick and/or one of their other starting pitchers to be that Breakout Pitcher.

     

    How many runs per game will this Cahttonooga team average is a great new thread question?  Also what will their  starting  line up be and why? 

     

    Who will be the next Berrios (Top Pitchng Prospect) to move up 2 levels in 2015?  (if any)

    jokin

    jokin 4,237

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Who will be the next Berrios (Top Pitchng Prospect) to move up 2 levels in 2015?  (if any)

     

    If Thorpe is healthy, he's the SP that could make the 2 level move, likely starting in A or A+, and ending up in Chattanooga for the playoff run. Cederoth jumping from Rookie ball this year, could potentially be throwing in Ft Myers or even Chattanooga by the end of the season.

     

    Among the relievers, Burdi, Reed, and a real sleeper, Brandon Peterson, should all have a great shot ending up 2 levels higher than they start out. If Zach Jones starts out in Ft Myers, it's easy to see him finishing up in AAA if he gets his control issues in order.

    Steven Buhr

    Steven Buhr 2,290

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Have the Twins ever had another minor league team in recent history that has had the talent that the Chattanooga Lookouts will have at the start of the season (Position Players)?

     

    Actually, you could argue, "yes," because this group has essentially been coming up together. It's true that, if Sano starts the year in Chattanooga, that would be a significant addition to this "class," as is Stuart Turner, but for the most part this group of position players have been together since winning a championship for Elizabethton in 2012.

     

    They gave Cedar Rapids a great line up in the first year of the affiliation between the Kernels & Twins and, obviously, did the same in Fort Myers this past year.

     

    Now Chattanooga, also in the first year of their affiliation with the Twins, will get pretty much the same group.

     

    Given the wash out rate for minor leaguers, in general, it really is pretty encouraging that a core group of 6-7 position players would be able to continue to progress together this way. Lookouts fans are going to have a lot of fun next summer.

    Edited by Steven BUHR
    lightfoot789

    lightfoot789 147

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    This is how I predict the season will start:

     

    Imagine  this  Lineup:
    1)  Buxton  CF  (Baseball's #1 Prospect)
    2)  Polanco  SS  (Twins  #7 Prospect)
    3)  Rosario  LF   (Twins  #10 Prospect)
    4)  Sano  3B   (Twins  #2 Prospect)
    5)  Walker  RF   (Twins  #13 Prospect)
    6)  Hicks  1B  (Twins #2 RBI Prospect last 2 Yrs.)
    7)  Kepler  DH  (Twins  #19 Prospect)
    8)  Turner  C  (Twins  #15 Prospect)
    9)  Michael  2B   (Twins 2011 1st Rd. Pick)

     

    Bench:
    ***)  Kepler  DH / 1B / OF

    10)  Jairo Rodgriguez  C
    11)  Tyler Grimes  C / UT
    12)  Aderlin Mejia  SS / UT

    13)  Mike Gonzalez  1B / DH  (if 26 man roster)

     

    Look at how many guys could become breakout candidates with this lineup.

     

    Pitching Rotation:
    1)  Jose Berrios
    2)  Taylor Rogers
    3)  Alex Wimmers
    4)  Brett Lee
    5)  DJ Berrios
    6)  Matt Tomshaw

     

    Bullpen:
    1)  Corey Williams
    2)  Tim Shibuya
    3)  Steve Gruver
    4)  Tyler Jones
    5)  Madison Boer
    6)  Zach  Jones
    7)  Nick Burdi

     

    Visualize these pitchers in Chattonooga - (WOW)

     

    Look at how many pitchers could become breakout candidates with this staff



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