Twins 0, Blue Jays 15: Zebby Shelled

Box Score
SP: Zebby Matthews 2 IP, 10 H, 9 ER,  1 BB,  5 K (69 pitches, 45 strikes (78%))
Home Runs: 0
Bottom 3 WPA: Zebby Matthews (-.462), Trevor Larnach (-.017), Matt Wallner (-.014)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

The Past vs. The Present
Saturday night’s pitching matchup had some history as it was a rematch of last year’s Game 1 of the Wild Card round. Tonight’s matchup - Jose Berrios versus Zebby Matthews - has some history, too, but in a more philosophical vein. 

When Berrios was traded from the Twins to the Blue Jays in 2021, many assumed the Twins’ impetus was primarily financial. Berrios had talked openly about looking forward to free agency. The reality was that any contract extension to extend his time as a Twin wouldn’t include any significant hometown discount. Indeed, after being traded to the Blue Jays, he did sign an extension, but that 7-year, $131M contract reflected costs similar to what he might have made as a free agent. 

However, looking at the path the Twins have taken since then, especially with their starting pitching, suggests there may have been a philosophical component, too. Berrios was drafted, developed, and made his Major League debut while Terry Ryan was the Twins GM. Berrios was a bit of an outlier compared to other pitchers that Ryan’s group developed. He was shorter (6’ 0”), had higher velocity (93 mph fastball), was drafted out of high school, and displayed a higher strikeout rate than, say, Kyle Gibson, Scott Baker, or Kevin Slowey. But like them, he was an early draft pick (1st round) and steadily marched through the minors, duplicating his stuff and success from level to level. 

On the other hand, his rival tonight represented the prototypical template of Derek Falvey’s overhaul of the Twins' pitching pipeline. Matthews was not a high draft pick (8th round). His velocity (95 mph) and stuff have jumped considerably from when he was drafted. And his progression through the minors has been anything but slow and steady; he started this year in A ball.

This is not to say that Matthews will have anywhere near Berrios' career. Indeed, projecting any pitching prospect to match that career thus far - starting 238 games with a career 4.10 ERA and 1319 punchouts - is more than optimistic. Plus, at only 30 years old, Berrios is not done yet. 

But in retrospect, it’s easy to see that Berrios did not fit the template that the new Twins front office had in mind for their future, especially given his future cost. Berrios can be seen as representing the last example of a different era for the Twins. Matthews, along with Bailey Ober and David Festa, represents a very different philosophy for how to find, develop and leverage starting pitchers.

A Totally Different Story
Tonight, Berrios outlasted Matthews, completing 6 innings and gave up no runs. Matthews, meanwhile, lasted two innings and did not return for the third inning after the Blue Jays hung nine on the rookie, leaving the bullpen to fight through the remaining innings. The Blue Jays continued to stomp on the Twins pitching pushing the score up 15-0, and the bleeding only stopped when the game ended. Honorable mention goes to Kyle Farmer who pitched the last inning for the Twins. He allowed one run, which seems insurmountable.

The Twins offense was unable to compete against Berrios arsenal early in the game. They made an effort to start coming back in the sixth inning when Berrios started to give up hits, but the RISP continued to be an issue and the guys were left stranded. The Twins didn’t remain hitless, but they didn’t get any runs, getting completely shut out by the Blue Jays, their fifth shutout this season.    

What’s Next? 
The Twins continue with the Blue Jays in the last game of the series with Bailey Ober (12-6; 4.06 ERA) taking the bump against Yariel Rodriguez (1-6; 4.82 ERA) at 1:10pm EST, in hopes to secure the series before heading out on a long road trip starting with Tampa Bay starting on Monday. 

Postgame Interviews
 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

John Bonnes contributed to this story.