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    The Twins' 12 Biggest Offseason Questions (& Their Answers) - Part 2


    John  Bonnes

    Yesterday I covered six of the Twins biggest offseason questions - and answers - after consulting Twins' President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey, manager Rocco Baldelli, and my 1970s era Magic 8-Ball. We got as far as considering potential trade candidates, so that's where we'll start off today.

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    Question 7: Will the Twins begin next year with Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers at catcher?
    Magic 8-Ball: Outlook good

    But maybe not in that order? The Twins are really happy with how their catching tandem turned out this year, so don't expect any changes. Yes, Vazquez's existing two-year, $20M contract is overpriced, and trading it away – even if some salary relief is included - might provide some payroll room. Also, they have Jair Camargo
    , a 24-year-old slugging catching prospect in St. Paul, and he likely would've seen some time with the club if Jeffers or Vazquez had been injured, but neither was. So he's an option, but the default plan sounds like they'll try to run out the same arrangement next year, with Camargo in line for a promotion if the Twins catching tandem is not so lucky with injuries next year.

    Question 8: How about Kyle Farmer ? Is he a trade candidate?
    Magic 8-Ball: As I see it, yes

    Falvey and Baldelli weren't explicitly asked about Farmer. I'm sure they would have praised him endlessly if they had had. But his return presents some challenges. First, he will get an arbitration-fueled raise from his $5.6M salary this year to ... $7M-ish? Second, Willi Castro and Nick Gordon provide some similar (and cheaper) utility roles. Royce Lewis (and maybe Brooks Lee ) provide some backup at shortstop. And finally...

    Kyle Farmer would be at or near the top of the available free agent shortstops list, especially if the White Sox don't pick up Tim Anderson's contract option. It's a thin group. So Farmer could face the same situation he faced last year: being traded just before the arbitration deadline to a team that is willing to pay that (reasonable) freight. It's also the same situation the Twins faced last year with Gio Urshela , for whom they received a High-A reliever (who also had a terrible year). Farmer would probably be worth more, but I also thought that about Urshela.

    Question 9 & 10: (with eyes welling up a bit) Hold it ... what about Jorge? And Max? They'll be back, won't they?
    Magic 8-Ball: Signs point to yes

    The Twins have options on both Jorge Polanco ($10.5M)and Max Kepler ($10M) next year; all signs are that they'll exercise those options. The Twins clearly value them and their veteran presence. The question is how hard other teams will come fishing for them in trade talks.

    Both are desirable. Kepler had a good year, and his second half suggests the 30-year-old could have an even better one next year. His 121 OPS+ looks attractive compared to other corner outfielders, and his defense is a bonus. Plus, there's the reasonable one-year, $10M commitment. And while the Twins don't have the glut of left-handed corner outfield bats they had last year, they have some options.

    Polanco might be even more desirable. He would be the best middle infielder (115 OPS+) on the free agent market, and his ability to get through the year healthy reassured the Twins and, even more importantly, other teams. Plus, the Twins might be motivated to move him, given Julien's breakthrough year.

    That said, we've been expecting the Twins to move a veteran bat for four years, and the only big move was Luis Arraez . That's because the Twins have valued their guys more than other teams, and the Twins clearly value these guys. It'll take a significant offer - or payroll reduction - to make the Twins move on from these cornerstones.

    Question 11: Will the Twins at least try to reduce the strikeouts?
    Magic 8-Ball: My reply is no

    After setting a new MLB record for strikeouts this year, both Falvey and Levine were especially dismissive of the strikeout narrative that has been saddled on the Twins. "I really do not think it should be something we focus on," emphasized Baldelli. "Baserunners and hitting balls hard is really what we did. We did a pretty good job of executing and making decisions at the plate, things like that. We can talk, probably later on, maybe not today, about different adjustments we can make, that actually are a topic. Because "not striking out" is just a blanket statement that is not constructive. Not striking out is not going to lead us to more effective run-scoring opportunities."

    Falvey agreed, and not just about the regular season. "We weren't trying to strike out more," said Falvey. "But at the same time, we were trying to find ways to get to more power. We've all observed these playoffs to this point. What's mattered most is power, the ability to hit for power. The reality is that striking out less this postseason has not led to more wins. In fact, you're below .500 in that sense. That's a fact, right?"

    Both agreed that players need to adjust in certain situations to put the ball in play. But that is something they will work on internally. Don't expect this year to change their team-building philosophy or the type of players they acquire.

    Question 12: Then will the Twins add a starting pitcher?
    Magic 8-Ball: Outlook good

    Even with the departure of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the Twins already have a rotation that could win the (admittedly weak) AL Central: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland, with a few AAA arms that could help in a pinch, like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Brent Headrick. However…

    "That's a good group to start with, but it doesn't mean we're not going to think about ways to get better," Falvey said when asked about adding pitching. "Can't say that just yet, but I would say we'll see where the process takes us."

    The reality is that pitching in baseball is like cigarettes in prison: you can never have enough. This year's starting pitching free-agent market is thin, but the Twins will likely want to add one upper-half of the rotation arm to their mix. History suggests it will likely be via trade, and they'll target players with multiple years of team control.

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    3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    Comparatively few balls in play result in double plays. Such a canard.

    It is ALWAYS better for a batter to put the ball in play rather than K. Even if once or twice a month that ball in play results in 2 outs. 

    It's completely illogical to acknowledge K's are good for pitchers while denying they are inherently bad for hitters.

    As for "take better ABs," yeah. Of course. Don't swing at balls and put the barrel on strikes.

    And don't K. Good ABs don't result in Ks.

    That was a specific response to a separate bad argument.  I'm not arguing any of that as a platform, all of these things are true but they are all non-linear values with distinctly different value propositions.  I didn't bring up the pitcher comparisons either, speaking of canards.

    There is no comparison of the value of strikeouts to hitters vs strikeout value to pitchers.  Two completely different things.  The topic is the hitters and strikeouts and we need to return to that.

    Good at-bats absolutely can result in K's.  K's are not inherently bad for hitters either.

    How many strikeouts would you be willing to tolerate for 521 PA with a 1.031 OPS/168OPS+?




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