The Rising Cost Of Relief

A couple weeks ago I suggested that the best path for the Twins to become a true World Series contender in 2016 was to focus on building an elite bullpen, one that could negate other weaknesses to a degree. We have since seen some of MLB's heaviest hitters follow that same blueprint.

The Dodgers reportedly have a trade in the works for Aroldis Chapman to complement Kenley Jensen. The Royals signed Joakim Soria to keep their pen infused with power and negate the loss of Greg Holland. The Red Sox traded a ransom to acquire Craig Kimbrel a month ago despite already having a pretty damn good closer in Koji Uehara, then picked up lights-out setup man Carson Smith from Seattle on Monday.

With the game shifting at a fundamental level, the market is responding accordingly. In the past few days alone, we have seen Soria and Baltimore's Darren O'Day sign huge long-term deals at rates that would have been unthinkable for non-closers in the not-so-distant past. Ryan Madson, who had missed three straight seasons before putting together a good 2015 as a sixth/seventh inning guy for Kansas City, amazingly got a three-year, $22 million deal from the Athletics.

Terry Ryan has been clear that bolstering the bullpen is his top priority at the Winter Meetings, but will he pay to play?

The Twins haven't traditionally made a habit of aggressively attacking the free agent relief market in the past, typically opting for one-year contracts and low-risk fliers. To their credit, they have struck gold on a few occasions through this method with players like Jared Burton and Casey Fien, but that mentality isn't the avenue to a true top-tier relief corps.

How much would it cost to add one of the remaining top free agents? Well, our contract projections from the Offseason Handbook have proven fairly accurate thus far, so here's a look at where we pegged some of the other big-name players:

My hope is that the Twins will make a serious play for someone like Kelley or Tony Sipp, both of whom they have been connected to. My fear is that they'll end up settling for someone like Matt Thornton or Neal Cotts, who are respectable veteran arms but nothing more than that.

A big part of the reluctance to move on one of those higher-profile names might be the length of the required commitment; some of those three- and four-year terms are undoubtedly cringeworthy for Ryan given that he has numerous homegrown arms with big potential rising in the system.

But the Twins have a lot of question marks across the roster and the bullpen is no exception. Glen Perkins is coming off a brutal finish, Kevin Jepsen has been a fairly ordinary reliever for the majority of his career, Trevor May might end up as a starter, and there are currently no established lefty arms to speak of.

Will the Twins, who have undeniably turned a new leaf in their approach over the last few offseasons, take the kind of bold steps necessary to land one of the top remaining free agent relievers, or an impact player via trade?