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    Quietly Solid


    Seth Stohs

    2014 has been another frustrating season for the Minnesota Twins and their fans. Another 90 loss season is within reach. Late July and August has turned into a trade-your-veteran time yet again this year.

    Yet among all of the misfortune and poor play, there have been several positives as well. In my opinion, Kyle Gibson fits into that category even though few are talking about him.

    Image courtesy of Lance Iversen, USA Today

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    A year ago at this time, Kyle Gibson was really struggling and was about to be shut down due to an innings limit in his return from Tommy John. He made ten starts for the Twins and went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. It was clear that some fans were shaking their heads and wondering what all the hype was about.

    The Twins signed Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey to multi-year contracts this offseason. Kevin Correia was the team's top starter in 2013, so there were four starting spots already accounted for.

    At Twins Fest, Kyle Gibson said, "I'm glad there's still one spot that I can compete for!"

    Then came this spring when he appeared to be the odd man out coming into camp, fighting an uphill battle against Sam Deduno, Vance Worley and Scott Diamond, who were all out of options. However, he pitched well and won the job out of spring training.

    He has certainly experienced ups and downs this first full season in the big leagues. We have seen that when he is on, he's on. When he has lost, he has pitched very poorly.

    However, overall, he is now 11-9 with a 3.96 ERA, which is essentially league average. His WHIP is at 1.23. Some will focus on the 5.0 strikeouts per nine innings. You can also choose to look at the 2.6 BB/9 or the 0.5 HR/9 rates. That he isn't giving up home runs often makes sense since he gets ground balls about 54% of the time.

    He is likely in line for about eight more starts this season. If he can average six innings per start, he will end the year with over 180 innings.

    Phil Hughes certainly grabbed a lot of headlines in May and early June when he was walking no one and finding good success. On the season, he is 12-8 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

    That may be where the comparisons end (Hughes is a fly ball pitcher who does record some more strikeouts), the end results to this point of the year have been very similar.

    While Hughes has earned the accolades he's received through the season, Kyle Gibson has quietly become a guy that the Twins (and us fans) can count on. If nothing else, his first full season is certainly a strong base to build upon.

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    One last run at this:

     

    2013: Number of starting pitchers with ten or more wins = 0

    2014: Number of starting pitchers with ten or more wins = 2

     

    Given the topic, that's a "quietly solid" sign of a reemerging starting rotation, with Hughes and Gibson at the top of that recovery. Sure, the team will need pitchers who can miss bats, stay durable and pitch 200+ innings, and have lineups that can hit behind them.

     

    But at the end of the day, pitchers are credited with victories and losses in the box score. No other player receives a "W" or an "L" by his stat line. There's a basic, logical reason for this--good pitching wins ballgames...most of the time.

     

    Seth's lead points out that "another 90 loss season is within reach." Yep, especially when Correia, Nolasco, and Fien follow Hughes and Gibson on the 2014 win chart with five victories each. We won't see the Twins post a winning record until five or six pitchers register 10+ victories--no matter what their other peripheral numbers might be. As winning pitchers, Hughes and Gibson have the Twins on the right track.

    You have to be optimistic about the future of the Twins staff.   Hughes and Gibson provide the foundation for a competitive rotation in 2015.   A strong finish from Nolasco will offer further stability going in to next year. Finally, having Milone, Meyer, May and Pelfrey competing for the last two spots next year provides multiple opportunities to come out of Ft. Meyers with a competitive rotation.

    I think you can be cautiously optimistic.  If your 2 best pitchers are hovering around league average that leaves 3 spots filled with guys that are below average.  Hopefully Nolasco isn't as bad as he's looked this year, hopefully May and Meyer live up to the hype, and hopefully Milone can be average.  Pelfrey is toast.  Gibson looks like part of the future and maybe they can extend Hughes if he keeps it going because he could be more useful in 3 or 4 years than he will be over the next 2 unless they sign a true ace to anchor the rotation.




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