Player Predictions: CF Byron Buxton

It was clear since the end of last season that the Twins brass, the manager and fans all wanted to see Byron Buxton as the Twins Opening Day centerfielder. On Saturday, it became official. When the Twins are in Baltimore next Monday, manager Paul Molitor will write Buxton’s name and the number 8 in the ninth spot of the Twins lineup.

While working through all of the predictions for Twins starters in 2016, Buxton was the most difficult. There are just so many variables. How ready will he be offensively from the start? Can he get off to a fast start? Will he need to spend any more time in AAA? Can he stay healthy? Can he get on base enough to eventually slide into the leadoff spot in the lineup?

Of course, that’s the beauty of spring training and Opening Day. No one knows, and that’s why it is fun to predict.

Last year, Buxton started in center field 35 times for the Twins. Jordan Schafer was the center fielder to start the season, but that didn’t go well and then he got hurt. Aaron Hicks had the majority of starts in center with 87. Twins center fielders were 25th in baseball with a .243 batting average. They were 27th in on-base percentage at .296. They rank 27th in slugging percentage at .360, and their .656 OPS was 28th in the big leagues.

In other words, Buxton can help the Twins team improve by more than just what he provides on defense.

Buxton has been a Top 2 overall prospect each of the last three years. He was Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2013 when he split the season between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. Unfortunately, 2014 was injury-filled and he was unable to really get things going. He got off to a very slow start in Chattanooga last year and was very inconsistent through the season’s first two months.

The Twins had a need in center field in June when Aaron Hicks got hurt and Torii Hunter chose not to appeal his suspension. Terry Ryan called up Buxton, knowing that he wasn’t ready. Mientkiewicz told those who wanted to hear that Buxton wasn’t ready, at least not offensively.

So, no surprise that he struggled, but his star shines no less bright than it did a year ago. The 23-year-old’s tools are all still intact. He continues to grow. He has always struggled at new levels, but typically he picks things up fairly quickly. It will continue to take time, but with patience, Twins fans will be thrilled to have a player like Buxton patrolling center field and potentially leading off.

KEY NUMBERS

0.300 - Sure, a .300 batting average would be great, but for Buxton in 2016, I would love to see an on-base percentage above .300. He can be a huge contributor for the Twins if he can get on base 30% of the time when you factor in the defense.

16 - It’s not really a “key” number but I want to set an over-under on the number of triples Buxton has in 2016. Of course, some of that will have to do with how much playing time he gets. 16 would be one more than Eddie Rosario’s league-leading 15 from last year. It would be the most by a Twins player since Cristian Guzman’s 20 in 2000.

PREDICTIONS

Byron Buxton: 413 at-bats, .247/.302/.424 (.726), 18 doubles, 11 triples, 11 home runs.

Because of batting ninth, and some likely struggles at times, I have Buxton with fewer at-bats than others in these lists. That said, I think we’d all be happy with a .726 OPS at the end of the season. In my mind, he will likely be steadily improving over the course of the entire season. I think that .300 is a good over-under for his on-base percentage.

Consider Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier in 2015. He hit .263/.298/.420 (.718) and he won the Gold Glove. Despite a 97 OPS+, Kiermaier was worth 7.3 bWAR and 5.5 fWAR.

I think looking at Kiermaier’s 2015 shows just how valuable Buxton’s defense alone can be, so if he can find a way to be nearly league average offensively, that is tremendously valuable.

YOUR TURN

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Byron Buxton in 2016. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

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