On Twins Pitching and Philosophy

Pitching has been a significant issue for the organization as the team floundered its way to four consecutive 90-loss seasons. Although replacement-level personnel has played a significant factor in the pitching results, the Twins have failed to adapt to the changes in the game around them. And part of that may be sourced back to former pitching coach Rick Anderson.

In 2008, Anderson provided a scouting report of his young pitching staff that emphasized keeping the ball down in the zone. Specifically, for Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker, Anderson said keeping the fastball down was critical for success. In 2010, Anderson reiterated this belief. But Anderson was not alone in his assessment. On almost every broadcast, FSN and former pitcher Bert Blyleven would echo this as well. However, at least in Baker’s case, the inverse was actually true. From 2009 on, opponents hit .227 and struck out on 24% of their plate appearances while facing fastballs up in the zone against Baker. On the other hand, they batted .288 with strikeouts on 11% of their plate appearances on fastballs down. His success was found just below the letters.

For Anderson and Blyleven, the mantra of shooting the knees and maintaining a downward plane may have been true during their era of pitching but the game has evolved beyond the notion that you have to live down in the zone with your fastball to survive. In fact, it is more detrimental if you do.

While the rest of baseball was fawning over ground ball pitchers, the Oakland A’s ran the other direction and loaded their lineups with hitters who exhibit fly ball tendencies and uppercut swings -- a practice that would combat the downward action of sinkers and two-seam fastballs which live down in the zone. With that method, it is probably no surprise to learn that the A’s led baseball in hardest hit fastballs down in the zone (.212 hard-hit average) and put 26% in play as fly balls (well above the league average of 21%). Meanwhile, this uppercutting offense struggled to generate power on fastballs up in the zone, slugging just .293 -- the lowest in the American League.

And it is not just Oakland that is having more success versus fastballs down in the zone compared to those left up. This past year the league batted .216/.331/.344 on fastballs above the waist while they managed a superior .283/.387/.409 on fastballs from mid-thigh and below.

There are various reasons for this outcome. The first being a tenet of a Perry Husband’s theory of Effective Velocity. The reason why hitters often say a pitcher’s high fastball seemed to have more giddyup is because, as Husband’s research suggests, a hitter’s bat needs to travel further to make contact -- particularly up-and-in and middle-up above the strike zone. By locating a fastball properly, a pitcher’s heater can gain 1-to-5 miles an hour of Effective Velocity.

While the majority of the baseball world was teaching downward plane, the UCLA Bruins found success in the NCAA by going up in the zone. Most notably, with current Cleveland Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer and then with Adam Plutko later in 2013. The Bruins pitchers aimed for what they call the “one spot” -- an elevated letter-high fastball out over the plate -- visiting that location in two-strike counts.

"It’s why [former Mets starter] Sid Fernandez had success,” current Astros pitching coach Brett Strom told Husband. “Everybody wants a 6'5 guy, but hitters have been conditioned for ages for a ball to be in a certain spot, from a downward plane. Fernandez sat really deep on his back leg and had a low release point. Hitters couldn’t adjust."

The second reason is the increase in the number of pitchers trained to work downhill. As a response, more hitters are conditioned to look for pitches down in the zone. For instance, Husband studied Mike Trout’s data closely and found that the superstar did not chase after fastballs up in the zone. It would appear that Trout, who can typically hit everything, at anytime and pitched anywhere, knew his limitations.

Mariners pitcher Chris Young, a soft-tossing right-hander, told Fangraphs.com’s Enos Sarris the reason he works up in the zone more frequently despite the low velocity is because hitters have adapted to low fastballs. “You can look across the board and see that pitching up can be just as effective as pitching down, maybe moreso,” he said. “Hitting is cyclical. I’ve given up plenty of home runs on low balls. Hitters are very good low ball hitters now, too.”

Like Young, Oakland’s closer Sean Doolittle adjusted his approach after video scouting revealed that opponents were jumping all over his fastball down in the zone. He ditched that for fastballs above the belt. "As long as most guys have been teaching pitching, you want to live at the knees and then maybe expand up with two strikes," Doolittle said. "But I've had more success throwing pitches up in the zone."

The benefits of pitching down in the zone include a higher percentage of ground balls, but using a fastball up in the zone leads to more fly balls and infield pop-ups that are converted into outs more often than grounders. Are more home runs allowed on pitches up in the zone? Slightly. In 2014, 2.5% of all at-bats on fastballs up in the zone resulted in a home run compared to 2.0% of at-bats that resulted in a home run on pitches down in the zone. That said, hitters swing and miss on 11% of fastballs up in the zone while they do so on just 4% of fastballs down. Lower batting average, higher out-percentage and a better opportunity to miss bats certainly makes this an intriguing idea.

Not every pitcher is designed to be a high-ball pitcher, to be sure. Pitchers like Kyle Gibson, who has a power sinker, is not likely to suddenly become a pitcher who targets the top of the strike zone. That said, pitching up in the zone shouldn’t be treated like a problem either, particularly while developing pitchers in the minor leagues.

Heading into the 2014 season, Twins farm director Brad Steil made this statement regarding Trevor May: “For him to get better, it's going to be pitching down in the zone with his fastball. When he gets in trouble, he leaves the ball up above the belt. He's just got to make sure he's staying on top of the ball and pitching down in the zone. If he does that, he'll see results."

Contrary to what Steil said, when May reached the major leagues he saw better results on his fastball when it was above the belt. Opponents hit .182 with 11/6 strikeouts/walks against his high fastball compared to a .313 average with a 7/9 strikeouts/walks when pitching the fastball down in the zone. Both are small sample sizes yet there may be something there. After all, Baker and Phil Hughes have had success while almost exclusively using high fastballs. If he is able to command it May might be better off using the upper reaches of the zone.

To be clear, effective pitching is not just throwing fastballs up in the zone. It is proper sequencing, changing speed and locating pitches. Still, the game has shifted away from the idea that you have to throw fastballs down in the zone. The Twins have been criticized for not thinking differently and maintaining practices that have proven ineffective as the rest of the game has evolved around them. The new hire has the opportunity to make these philosophical and practical changes that can improve the team.