Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Predictions

Brian Dozier

Prediction – Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers

Brian Dozier has started to heat up at just the right time and as a result has brought back some of his trade value. While there have been a number of teams with reported interest in Dozier, there have been none more so than the Milwaukee Brewers. At second base, the Brewers only decent option this year has been Jonathan Villar, who was recently placed on the disabled list with a right thumb sprain. However, even when healthy, Dozier is a considerable upgrade over Villar for Milwaukee.

Outside of Corbin Burns and Freddy Peralta, who will most likely not be made available in a trade for Dozier, the Brewers lack the quality pitching prospects that would intrigue the Twins. One Brewers prospect that piques my interest is outfielder Corey Ray who has showing impressive feats of power and speed, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 30 bases in Double-A this season and is currently ranked as the 5th best prospect in the Brewers system according to Baseball America.

Eduardo Escobar

Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies

One of the few Twins players who has actually improved his trade value this season has been Eduardo Escobar. Last week, I wrote about him being the best available shortstop on the trade market after the Manny Machado trade. While third base is clearly his better position, I see a team in need of help at shortstop needing him the most.

What makes the Philadelphia Phillies the perfect fit for Escobar is their need for improvement at both shortstop and third base. Escobar’s flexibility to play both positions will serve the Phillies well as they look to play around with their lineup down the stretch.

Fernando Rodney

Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies

As is always the case, nearly every team that is in playoff contention this time of year is looking to add another bullpen arm or two that they can rely on during a postseason run. While many of these teams might not be looking at Rodney to be their closer, he could still be a valuable weapon in the back-end of a contending team’s bullpen.

One likely candidate that I think Rodney would fit well on is the Philadelphia Phillies. The back-end of their bullpen has been a revolving door all season, and right now they have just three guys in Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos that they can count on in high leverage situations during the postseason. Not only would Rodney add depth to that bullpen, but he could be a much needed veteran presence as the average age of those three is just shy of 24. Additionally, Rodney would make a great add-on piece to trade with Eduardo Escobar to try to get a higher quality prospect back in.

Kyle Gibson

Prediction – Not Traded

As much as I would like to see Kyle Gibson get traded before the deadline, I have a feeling that the Twins are going stay put with Gibson for now and look forward to 2019. Given the current trade market for starting pitchers, Gibson would be an ideal player for many teams to target. However, there hasn’t been much in the way of rumors surrounding Gibson, and with the plethora of players on expiring contracts for the Twins front office to focus on, I could easily see the Twins deciding to focus their attention elsewhere unless they receive a really strong offer.

Ryan Pressly

Prediction – Not Traded

Last week over at Baseball Prospectus, Matthew Trueblood wrote an interesting article about the trade value of Ryan Pressly, and how he might be one of the most valuable relief options on the market. Much like Kyle Gibson, Pressly is still under control through 2019 which gives added interest for opposing teams to make a trade for him. That being said, I see the Twins taking the same approach with Pressly as they will with Gibson and deciding to look towards 2019, even if I would personally prefer them to try to trade Pressly.

Zach Duke

Prediction – Traded to the Boston Red Sox

Zach Duke has been a sneaky good signing for the Twins this offseason. He has had a couple rough outings of late which have ballooned his ERA up to a still respectable 3.75, but his FIP remains nearly a full run lower at 2.77. Additionally, the Statcast metrics love Duke even more as he has the best expected wOBA (xwOBA) of any Twins pitcher at .263 (minimum 100 batters faced).

There are a number of teams who could use a left-handed reliever and one in particular that sticks out is the Boston Red Sox. Right now, the Red Sox only left-handed option out of the pen is Brain Johnson, who has a 5.10 ERA in 30 innings pitched this season. Zach Duke would serve as a considerable upgrade over Johnson in Boston.

Lance Lynn

Prediction – Traded to the Oakland Athletics in August

Lance Lynn is a tricky case. He has been nothing but downright bad this season (5.23 ERA in 96 1/3 innings), and wasn’t exactly highly sought after this past winter, leading the Twins to take a 1-year $12 million flyer on him. I struggle to find a team in contention where Lynn would be a good fit, but one team that could make sense is the Oakland Athletics. With their surge over the past month, the A’s are just 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race (entering play on Tuesday).

The A’s could view Lynn as a potential flyer to see if he could return to his old form. If nothing else he could be an innings eater for them down the stretch, which is something they desperately need as they have just two starters who have thrown more than 62 1/3 innings this season. If the Twins are able to trade Lynn, I think they will most likely have to eat some, if not all of the roughly $4 million still owed to him.

Logan Morrison

Prediction – Not Traded

When it comes to disappointing seasons, Logan Morrison’s has been on par with Lance Lynn’s. As a 1B/DH type who doesn’t provide much defensive value when playing first, Morrison’s worth relies almost entirely on his bat. Unfortunately for the Twins, Morrison has been one of the worst hitters on the team with a slash line of just .195/.288/.375 and 12 home runs (81 wRC+). At this point it is hard to see a contending team even wanting Morrison on their team to come off the bench.

Ervin Santana

Prediction – Not Traded

Ervin Santana is finally set to make his season debut on Wednesday afternoon against the Toronto Blue Jays. With just a week left before the non-waiver deadline on July 31st, Santana won’t have enough time to prove that he is back and ready to pitch for a contender. If there is any chance of the Twins trading Santana at all, it will have to come in August before the wavier deadline. Fortunately for the Twins, Santana should easily pass through waivers, given his contract, and will become open to being traded to any team before the end of August. Whether or not Santana gets traded will come down to how well he pitches over the next month. Given the way he has been pitching during his rehab assignment that will be a tough hill to climb.