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    Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2015 Version 3.0


    Seth Stohs

    It has now been two weeks since I put together my second Twins Opening Day roster projection, so it is time for Version 3.0. Since the second version of the projection, I have spent about a week in Ft. Myers, and we've been keeping up with Nick's daily reports. There weren't a lot of positions up for grabs, so today, we'll try to look at the possible scenarios as we are just over two weeks from opening day.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs

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    When a player becomes a “given” for the roster (in my opinion), I will highlight the player’s name in red. Trades and signings can happen at any time between now and opening day, but that just means that even “givens” can change. We will also be able to learn, over time, what it is that Paul Molitor will look for from his roster. Feel free to discuss below.

    Catchers (2): Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto

    Kurt Suzuki is the clear-cut starter and deservedly so after last year. I still believe that Josmil Pinto is the front-runner to be the backup catcher to start the season. He missed the first week of games with a quad injury, but since his return, he has hit, and he even threw out a would-be base stealer the other day. If he is the backup, my sense is that there are some veteran starters that he would not work with.

    Chris Herrmann has been one of the better offensive performers this spring. He's hit for average and has several extra base hits. Defensively, he does a nice job behind the plate. Although he can play elsewhere, he wants the coaches to know that he wants to be a catcher.

    Infielders (7): Kennys Vargas, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez

    Two weeks ago, I wrote here that I thought Eduardo Nunez was a given to make the roster. Though I still feel that he is the heavy favorite for the 25th man spot, I feel that Chris Herrmann and his defensive versatility is also a strong candidate for the spot.

    Nunez has played third base, shortstop and second base this spring, and we saw him in left field and right field in 2014. Herrmann has played left field, first base and caught this spring, but we know he can play right field as well, and could play third base and center field in a pinch. Nunez bats right-handed. Herrmann bats left-handed. Nunez is out of options. Herrmann has one option remaining.

    Outfielders (4): Oswaldo Arcia, Torii Hunter, Jordan Schafer, Aaron Hicks

    The corner outfield spots are secured, and we know that Jordan Schafer will get a roster spot as well. I still believe that Aaron Hicks is the heavy favorite to be the starting center fielder, but he has an option remaining and there are other options. Here are the scenarios as I see them.

    #1 - Aaron Hicks is the starter. Jordan Schafer is the fourth outfielder

    #2 - Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson platoon in center field with the other being the fourth outfielder.

    #3 - Eddie Rosario is the starter. Jordan Schafer is the fourth outfielder.

    I think that #3 is the least likely and expect Rosario to be optioned shortly. As I noted above, I think #1 is the most likely scenario. However, #2 is also possible, especially after we learned this week that Robinson has an opt-out on April 2. Of course, he would need to be added to the 40-man roster to make the team.

    Starting Pitchers (5): Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone

    Pending any injury scenario, the first four are givens. I believe that Tommy Milone is getting really close to securing the fifth starter job. That said, Mike Pelfrey has pitched quite well this spring and Trevor May is a little behind (due to illness the first week of spring) but could still get the job.

    The Twins used Alex Meyer's first option on Friday morning, sending him to minor league camp.

    Bullpen (7): Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Tim Stauffer, Caleb Thielbar, Mike Pelfrey, JR Graham.

    The first five on the above list are givens. I continue to believe that Mike Pelfrey will get a bullpen spot, especially with how well he is pitching this spring.

    The real question, in my opinion, is the final bullpen spot. I'll continue to keep JR Graham there. He has an explosive arm and as long as he remains healthy, he has a chance to be a very good reliever. He's also got enough upside that they might want to try to keep him around even if he doesn't have a big role in 2015.

    The other options on the 40-man roster are AJ Achter, Michael Tonkin and Ryan Pressly. There is a case made for each of them, though Pressly has struggled at times this spring. I think that Tonkin would be the favorite if the Twins do decide to either send Graham back to Atlanta or work out a trade with the team.

    What are your thoughts? Not much change in this version from the previous one, though within the next week we should learn much more about some of the roster spots. What does your roster look like one month from opening day?

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    So if Hicks doesn't make the team, and Arcia struggles and/or gets demoted, and Hunter is traded when Rosario and Buxton are promoted... what does that mean for the "mentorship" angle?

     

    All the guys probably had three weeks already with Torii.  

     

    Between Hicks, Rosario, and Arcia, from April 1 to August I see two of them on the roster almost at all times.  And frankly, if Buxton has half the work ethic, talent, and respect for the game he does not need any additional time with Torii Hunter.  I don't mean that as a slight to Torii but as a compliment to Buxton.  

     

    Hicks preparation and results, Arcia's results at times and demeanor, and Rosario's off the field activities tell me those are the guys most in need of mentorship.

     

     

    So if Hicks doesn't make the team, and Arcia struggles and/or gets demoted, and Hunter is traded when Rosario and Buxton are promoted... what does that mean for the "mentorship" angle?

     

    I'm sure Rosario would be quite the mentor.

     

    Bummer....was hoping he'd jump on it today.

     

     

    For those counting at home...

     

     

    Milone  14 IP, 4.50 ERA, 15H, 8K, 4 BB.

     

     

    May     6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 2H, BB, 7 K

     

     

    Hopefully a strong 4-5 innings tomorrow will lock it up for May.

    Edited by tobi0040

    This bullpen, by the way, is unsustainable. If Stauffer isn't good (as in, is mediocre or worse) then there is likely a big problem. I don't trust Duensing, Thielbar, or Fien to get better. Pelfrey . . . well everyone knows what I think there. I probably would work out a trade to put Graham in AAA right now, *just release* Pelfrey and add Pressly and Oliveros.

     

    Of the ones you mention I am the most skeptical of Fien. I see him as maybe a 7th guy in the pen and it seems like they are counting on him as a setup guy. To me, that's way too optimistic and I feel it's not going to play out well. It sort of annoys me that they threw so little at the pen in the offseason. Duensing and Theilbar are mediocre at best.

     

    Man, did anyone see Monday's game? Nunez was 0/3 in his first 3 opportunities at SS.

    1st chance - 3 hopper up the middle, Nunez ranged to his left, ball bounced off top of his glove into CF
    2nd chance - (2nd inning IIRC). slow grounder, sailed throw, batter reaches
    3rd chance - eaten up by a hard short-hop. Hit.

    I know its an extremely SSS but he really seemed out of place in that game.

     

    I didn't see the game, but I had seen enough already.  In order to justify that glove, he needs to hit a lot.  He doesn't. 




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