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    An Updated Look At Twins Payroll


    Nick Nelson

    Over the weekend, salary agreements were announced for four of the Twins' six arbitration eligible players. For two others, figures were publicly exchanged.

    Below, we will take a look at those numbers, while also examining where the 2016 payroll stands with the updated info incorporated.

    Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today

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    Here are the official 2016 salary numbers for the four players that reached agreement (in parentheses, their 2015 salaries):

    Tommy Milone: $4.5M ($2.775M)

    Casey Fien: $2.275M ($1.375M)

    Eduardo Escobar: $2.15M ($533K)

    Eduardo Nunez: $1.475M ($1.025M)

    (Big ups to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press for being first to report most of these figures on his must-follow Twitter account.)

    Trevor Plouffe and Kevin Jepsen did not finalize deals with the team, which isn't surprising since they will be the two highest paid players of the bunch. As the arbitration process goes, both players submitted numbers, as did the team. In almost all cases where the difference is relatively modest, the two sides settle right around the halfway point.

    How that would look here, with a little rounding for simplicity's sake:

    Plouffe Proposal: $7.95M

    Twins Proposal: $7M

    Midpoint: $7.5M

    Jepsen Proposal: $5.4M

    Twins Proposal: $5.05M

    Midpoint: $5.2M

    With these specifics in hand, we now have a clearer picture of the team's projected payroll for the 2016 season. Here's how it shakes out (note: pre-arb numbers all rounded down to $500K, though most will likely be closer to $550K):

    Joe Mauer: $23M

    Ervin Santana: $13.5M

    Ricky Nolasco: $12M

    Phil Hughes: $9.2M

    Trevor Plouffe: $7.5M

    Glen Perkins: $6.3M

    Kurt Suzuki: $6M

    Kevin Jepsen: $5.2M

    Tommy Milone: $4.5M

    Brian Dozier: $3M

    Byung Ho Park: $2.75M

    Casey Fien: $2.275M

    Eduardo Escobar: $2.15M

    Eduardo Nunez: $1.475M

    Fernando Abad: $1.25M

    Ryan Sweeney: $750K

    Eddie Rosario: $500K

    Oswaldo Arcia: $500K

    Miguel Sano: $500K

    Danny Santana: $500K

    John Ryan Murphy: $500K

    Kyle Gibson: $500K

    Trevor May: $500K

    Ryan Pressly: $500K

    Michael Tonkin: $500K

    TOTAL: $105.35M

    A couple notes: Fernando Abad and Ryan Sweeney are on minor-league deals but will get $1.25 million (per Darren Wolfson) and $750,000 (also per DW) if they make the Opening Day roster, which for now we'll assume they will. Several of the names toward the bottom of the list are obviously not locks to make the team, but barring further moves, they would be swapped out for other minimum-salary players.

    That total of $105.35 million is a small drop-off from last year's Opening Day payroll of $108.26 million. However, if you factor in the entirety of Park's $12.85 million posting fee, which seems reasonable enough, the new figure rises to $118.2 million.

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    If the Twins wait 7-8 years to sign those guys, they're as good as gone, unless they aren't very good.

    They still are fine in that scenario even if they lock them up early. They basically will be buying out their arbitration years in that scenario along with a couple of the initial free agent years. Even if they overpay for a couple arb years to earn the FA years part of the contract there still will be plenty of money to go around.

     

    I'm not saying go out and sign 4 guys to huge contracts, I'm saying, go out and sign one impacts guy to a large contract. None of that would stop the twins from locking up any player they wanted to.

    They still are fine in that scenario even if they lock them up early. They basically will be buying out their arbitration years in that scenario along with a couple of the initial free agent years. Even if they overpay for a couple arb years to earn the FA years part of the contract there still will be plenty of money to go around.

    I'm not saying go out and sign 4 guys to huge contracts, I'm saying, go out and sign one impacts guy to a large contract. None of that would stop the twins from locking up any player they wanted to.

    Realistically looking at the Twins management and ownership, I just don't think it's a good idea to put all of our eggs into one superstar. If that guy bombs we are screwed because the Twins ownership is not about to call it dead money and eat the contract. He will continue to play for us, block better and younger players, and inhibit us from signing free agents.

     

    Obviously that's pretty pessimistic but with the Twins current ownership, I think management is following the best strategy by signing multiple above average players with the hopes of one or two of them outperforming their contract like Phil Hughes did in 2014. If Hughes can bounce back to that level, Santana pitches like he did at times down the stretch, we have an ace-caliber pitcher without the risk associated with a monster contract.

     

    Although Nolasco might be used as an example as why we shouldn't pay mediocre players, I think it's a good demonstration of what happens when we pay for above average players. For every Santana and Hughes, we are going to have a Nolasco contract. But the difference is, we can afford to stash him on the bench/DL or cut him without it really affecting the construction of our team. If the one megastar we sign tanks, we don't have other options and don't have the money to pay for another try at a good pitcher.




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