2016 Twins Roster Projections: The Starting Pitchers

There will be competition for some of these starting jobs, so we’ll see what happens. Are there any prospects with the potential to be impact players down the line? Read on and see what you think, and then let’s discuss below in the comments.

MAJOR LEAGUES

Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone

2015 saw the Twins starting staff improve its cumulative ERA by over a run. They went from easily the worst starting staff in baseball to merely being in the bottom quadrant. Kyle Gibson was chosen by the writers and by Twins Daily as the Twins best pitcher. He posted an ERA+ of 108. Ervin Santana missed the first half of the season with suspension. He came back to mixed results, though he ended strong. His ERA was also slightly above league average. Phil Hughes really struggled with health and wasn’t able to back up his amazing 2014 season. In all likelihood, the right-hander is somewhere in between. Tommy Milone had to go to Rochester for a month. He gave up one run in the month and came back up. Though he’ll never look dominant, he has an uncanny way of getting the job done most times out. Tyler Duffey wasn’t talked about much coming into the 2015 season (except at Twins Daily, of course). After a rough debut, he was the Twins best starting pitcher over the final six weeks of the season.

Other Contenders: Trevor May, Ricky Nolasco, JO Berrios.

MINOR LEAGUES

Rochester Red Wings

JO Berrios, Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean, DJ Baxendale, Jason Wheeler

Though he may be the Twins best pitcher, JO Berrios is likely to begin the season in Rochester while the other four rotation spots work themselves out. I just don’t think he’ll be in Rochester for too long. Taylor Rogers, if there aren’t any more lefty relievers signed, could legitimately be in the big league bullpen. However, I think the Twins will have him continue to start in AAA until needed in the bullpen with the Twins. Pat Dean had a terrific, shocking 2015 season for the Red Wings. Like Rogers, he was added to the Twins 40-man roster following the season. Jason Wheeler was on the Twins 40-man roster a year ago but really struggled in AAA. He pitched well in AA. After being removed from the 40-man in early September, he led the Lookouts to the Southern League championship. DJ Baxendale has been a decent starter, when healthy, and likely remains in that role a little longer.

Chattanooga Lookouts

David Hurlbut, Brett Lee, Aaron Slegers, Ryan Eades, Omar Bencomo

David Hurlbut and Brett Lee are two very similar pitchers. They’re left-handed, are not overpowering, have strong secondary pitches, and just keep finding success all the way up. Hurlbut went to Venezuela this winter and pitched very well. Aaron Slegers moved up to the Lookouts late in the season after pitching well for Ft. Myers. At 6-10, he isn’t overpowering, but he walks no one. Ryan Eades had an improved season in Ft. Myers in 2015 after a frustrating first full season in 2014 in Cedar Rapids. He’ll look to make the jump to AA. Omar Bencomo was signed late in the season and worked some innings for the Miracle. He’s been around for a long time. He strikes out almost no one, but gets grounders.

Ft. Myers Miracle

Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Felix Jorge, Tyler Jay, Randy Rosario, John Curtiss

Stewart was able to stay healthy for most of the 2015 season which is as important as anything. He continues to not miss bats, though some observers say that most times out, he continued to not give up hard contact. I think staying with the Miracle for a month or two would be beneficial. Gonsalves dominated in Cedar Rapids for two months before moving up to the Miracle. There was some adjustment to the new level. He’s likely to remain with the Miracle for a couple of months before moving up to the Lookouts. Felix Jorge was arguably the most consistent starting pitcher in the entire Twins organization in 2015. He could be counted on for completing at least six innings and giving up two runs or fewer. He’s ready for this jump. Tyler Jay will make his transition to starter in 2016. The Twins are likely to be somewhat cautious with him. My guess is he’ll start for half of the season and then move up to Chattanooga and pitch in the bullpen the rest of the season. Randy Rosario was a surprising add to the Twins 40-man roster after the season. However, after returning to the Kernels after missing 14 months with Tommy John surgery, he was clocked as high as 97. He’s got a good slider too. John Curtiss started some for Cedar Rapids a year ago but struggled with arm issues. He will likely end up in the bullpen, but he’ll get another shot to start.

Cedar Rapids Kernels

Sam Gibbons, Sam Clay, Keaton Steele, Andro Cutura, Dereck Rodriguez, Cody Stashak, (Lewis Thorpe, Fernando Romero)

Sam Gibbons began last season in EST, but when he came up, the Australian right-hander was very good. He ate innings. I can see him starting with the Kernels. The most difficult pitcher on this list is Keaton Steele. He too began in EST, but when he came up, he was also one of the better starters. With a lot of talent at Ft. Myers, however, I feel like he’ll be the first one to move up when one of the Miracle starters moves up. Sam Clay had a difficult 2015 season, particularly struggling with control. He’ll get another chance to start, likely with the Kernels. Andro Cutura was drafted in 2014, but due to injury, he didn’t pitch until 2015 in E-Town. He was very steady. Dereck Rodriguez was named the Appalachian League pitcher of the Year. He saw some time with the Kernels and Miracle before the short season leagues started. Cody Stashak was drafted in 2015 and pitched well with the E-Twins. Not overpowering, he just knows how to pitch.

Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero are both throwing now and should be ready by June or so.

Extended Spring Training

Williams Ramirez, Lachlan Wells, Eduardo Del Rosario, Brandon Easton, Jovani Moran, Moises Gomez, Matz Schutte

Williams Ramirez was our choice for Twins Daily short-season minor league pitcher of the year. He dominated the GCL. He was older for the level, but he has only been pitching for a couple of years. He’ll move up and could move quickly. Lachlan Wells is a left-hander from Australia who is reminiscent of Lewis Thorpe. he pitched well in the GCL in his debut season and then represented his country in international competition. Eduardo Del Rosario has some upside. He’s pitched in various roles during his time with the Twins, but as he’s grown, he’s been able to eat more innings. Brandon Easton can throw hard (mid-to-upper 90s) and has a chance to start. He struggled with control a year ago in Elizabethton before being shut down to rehab. Jovani Moran was drafted a year ago out of Puerto Rico. He is young and could remain in the GCL, or he could be pushed to E-Town. Moises Gomez will return to the GCL after struggling there in 2015. Schutte signed with the Twins out of The Netherlands. He got limited GCL innings in his pro debut.

SUMMARY

The Twins have some depth in the big leagues. This rotation is much better than the rotations that we saw over the four 90-loss seasons, but there are a lot of #3s and #4s. Nothing wrong with that. We’ve seen what those types of pitchers make in free agency, but there isn’t a #1 or really even a #2 type. Berrios has a chance to be an upper-rotation starter, though will that happen in 2016? We shall see, and barring something catastrophic, we will see. We can hope also that Gibson can take another step forward, and Duffey can show that those eight final starts are what he and his curveball can be.

There is some depth in AAA, and a couple of guys to watch in AA. However, if you’re looking for prospects to follow (beyond Berrios), you’ll want to watch that Ft. Myers roster. There is some serious talent that will be starting for the Miracle. At least in the first half of the season. And there are some more hard-throwers in the lower ranks.

Starting Pitcher Rankings:

• JO Berrios,
  
• Stephen Gonsalves,
  
• Tyler Jay,
  
• Kohl Stewart,
  
• Lewis Thorpe
  

Later this week, we’ll finish up our roster projections by considering the options for the bullpens. Feel free to discuss and ask questions.