jwiederin

This will be my first post and hopefully one of many. Most of my work will be from the sabermetrics/analytical angle as I spend too much time on sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
 
Today, February 15th, an article was posted on FanGraphs about WAR (wins above replacement) and relating it to the "stars and scrubs" model in forming a baseball team. The article written by Travis Sawchik (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-the-end-near-for-stars-and-scrubs) uses the White Sox as the example from the 2016 season with Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana being the "stars". Stars, in the context of WAR. WAR is as simple as how many wins the team would have gained or lost if that player were to be replaced by a "replacement level player".
 
To put it in Twins terms, in 2016, Brian Dozier had a WAR of 5.9. So, if a replacement level player had replaced him, the Twins would have somehow managed to lose almost 6 more games. On the flip side, Eduardo Escobar had a WAR on -.6. In theory, if a "replacement level player" had replaced Eduardo, the Twins would have won .6 more games. The stat is calculated by position player (offense and defense) and pitchers. Each is formulated differently but in this case I am writing for just a total war. Make sense? I'll put the actual formula that FanGraphs uses to calculate WAR at the end of the post. Baseball reference explains the concept well here.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
 
For reference, here is a list of total WAR produced by players from last season. No surprise that Mike Trout leads the list at 10.55.
 
http://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/type/seasonal/year/2016
Travis writes that those three players had a WAR of 16 combined which is relatively high for three players. If you were counting on three players to come up with 16 wins, I would consider this to be a sort of "stars and scrubs model". The problem this creates is that those three players consisted of just over 50% of the teams total WAR. The chart below from FanGraphs shows the 6 division winners from last season.
 
Talent Distribution of 2016 Division Winners
 
Team --- Top Three WAR players -------- Total WAR ------ Top Three % of team WAR
Cubs = 18.3 = 59.1 = 30.9
Dodgers = 19.6 = 47.8 = 41.0
Nationals = 15.8 = 46.6 = 33.9
Red Sox = 18.2 = 52.5 = 34.6
Indians = 16.2 = 46.2 = 35.1
Rangers = 12.4 = 28.6 = 43.3
from FanGraphs
 
You see a more balanced attack from a WAR standpoint except for maybe the exception of the Rangers who have a lower WAR than most but we all remember what happened to them in the playoffs...
 
Now lets move our focus to the Twins. Would you be surprised if I told you the Twins had the Third worst pitching WAR in the league last season? I didn't think so. Fortunately, Dozier was able to bump up the total WAR. He lead the team at 5.9, the next 5 look like this,
 
Player WAR
Ervin Santana = 3.5
Byron Buxton = 1.7
Eduardo Nunez = 1.7
Rick Nolasco (its true) = 1.5
Miguel Sano =1.3
 
Many other players float around the 0 to 1 mark and 0 to -1. To put it in simple terms. Arguably, it wasn't a good all around season for anyone except for Dozier and Big Erv. Those were also the only two on the list who played a full season. Robbie Grossman would have made the list if he weren't such a liability defensively.
 
Looking forward, FanGraphs has the Twins predicted in a similar spot with pitching again being a problem. Given the market size in terms of salary and how little moves the Twins made its tough to predict a different season from a WAR standpoint unless the young guns like Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios etc. really step up. I, like many others reading this are hopeful that is the case. Even though its been said for years, these players potential is unmatched. Oh no, its my homer side coming out again.
 
Relating it back to the article by Travis, to be successful, a team needs depth and the "stars and scrubs" isn't efficient in most cases. Not only did the Cubs have their top 3 players represent only 30% of the team WAR but had their total position players WAR and pitching WAR were both in the top 5 of the league. Dozier and Ervin Santana represented 45% of the Twins total team WAR.
 
The Twins are in a position where its at the least possible. Stay hopeful fellow Twins fans as we gear up for another season.
 
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for some other geeky stat or stats next time.
 
 
Here is some more information on the calculations of WAR from FanGraphs.
 
Calculation:
Calculating WAR, especially for position players, is simpler than you’d think. If you want the detailed version with the precise steps and formulas, head to our page on Position Player WAR or Pitcher WAR. The short answer, though, is as follows:
● Position players – To calculate WAR for position players you want to take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player. After that, you simply take that sum and divide it by the runs per win value of that season to find WAR. The simple equation looks something like this:
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
● Pitchers – While position player WAR is based on Batting Runs and Fielding Runs, pitching WAR uses FIP (with infield fly balls), adjusted for park, and scaled to how many innings the pitcher threw. FIP is translated into runs, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins. This is a slightly more complicated process than for position players and there will be a new post detailing exactly how we do this in the next week or so (stay tuned!)

Going into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, it stands to reason that the Minnesota Twins will more than likely employ a similar 25 man roster construction. That means there'd be places for 12 pitchers and 13 position players. Given in are in the starting lineup, the four vying to fill out the bench provide some questions for Paul Molitor and his club.
 
Two of those bench spots are immediately claimed by the backup catcher (see Mitch Garver, John Ryan Murphy, or Chris Gimenez) and a fourth outfielder (Robbie Grossman or Eddie Rosario). With just two openings left, the Twins need to incorporate a defensive focus, some sort of base running threat, and realistically cannot ignore offensive production completely. Utility men would be great fits for either of those spots, but unfortunately for Minnesota, they have three players in the mix.
 
Danny Santana probably comes to mind first. He burst onto the scene thanks in large part to a mirage of a rookie season. His BABIP created unrealistic watermarks, and his career has spiraled since. Although he's played the most positions of the possible options, he occupies no ground on the field while being a positive defensive asset. I took a deeper dive into what Santana brings to the table in this piece, but right now he has to be the odd man out. Although Minnesota obviously appreciates his flexibility, it stands to reason his level of asset is simply the lowest.
 
That brings us to Eduardo Escobar. From 2014-2015, Escobar played in 260 games for the Twins owning a .737 OPS at the dish. While his OBP (.312) left something to be desired, he showed a little pop with his 18 homers, and was of value offensively. In the field, Escobar spent the majority of his time at shortstop, and went from -6 DRS in 2014 to +2 DRS in 2015. He's never completely sold us on the part that he's an every day player, but as a utility man that profiles at short and can play two other infield spots, it looked to make sense.
 
Last season however, Escobar through a wrench into his future with what was a significant step backwards. His OPS plummeted to a paltry .618, and he totaled -7 DRS in 579 innings at short. No longer a defensive or offensive asset, Escobar had simply become a below replacement level player. On a new arbitration contract with the Twins this season though, it appears the club is banking on that being an outlier, and it's probably a decent bet.
 
Rounding out the trio is the recently acquired Ehire Adrianza. Coming over from the San Francisco Giants (and briefly, the Milwaukee Brewers), Adrianza is virtually all glove. Despite the small sample size, he's regarded in the Andrelton Simmons level of leather at shortstop, and that's something that the Twins simply don't have anywhere on their roster. Given the likelihood that Jorge Polanco struggles defensively, Adrianza would stand to look otherworldly in the field.
 
With the bat, Adrianza owns just a .605 career OPS and is coming off his best season in which he totaled a .679 OPS in 40 games with the Giants. He has just 17 extra base hits in 154 big league games, and gap power is something that will likely always elude him. Down at Triple-A though, Adrianza has compiled an .822 OPS in just over 100 games being virtually the same singles hitter. He has speed, although he doesn't typically steal a ton of bases, and that can probably play on both sides of the ball.
 
For Molitor and the Twins, the decision likely comes down to whether or not they can handle a glove only bench player. Escobar, despite his poor 2016, should be a lock, and that leaves it a competition between Santana and Adrianza. The former can stand at multiple positions but play none, while the latter plays infield spectacularly but can't hit a lick.
 
As noted above, with question marks already surrounding Polanco's ability to cope at short, Adrianza seems like an ideal fit. Minnesota was beaten badly around the ballyard a season ago in large part due to poor defense. Having such an asset ready and waiting off the bench seems to make a lot of sense. Expect this to be sorted out as Spring Training draws on down in Fort Myers.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

This will be my first post and hopefully one of many. Most of my work will be from the sabermetrics/analytical angle as I spend too much time on sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
 
Today, February 15th, an article was posted on FanGraphs about WAR (wins above replacement) and relating it to the "stars and scrubs" model in forming a baseball team. The article written by Travis Sawchik (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-the-end-near-for-stars-and-scrubs) uses the White Sox as the example from the 2016 season with Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana being the "stars". Stars, in the context of WAR. WAR is as simple as how many wins the team would have gained or lost if that player were to be replaced by a "replacement level player".
 
To put it in Twins terms, in 2016, Brian Dozier had a WAR of 5.9. So, if a replacement level player had replaced him, the Twins would have somehow managed to lose almost 6 more games. On the flip side, Eduardo Escobar had a WAR on -.6. In theory, if a "replacement level player" had replaced Eduardo, the Twins would have won .6 more games. The stat is calculated by position player (offense and defense) and pitchers. Each is formulated differently but in this case I am writing for just a total war. Make sense? I'll put the actual formula that FanGraphs uses to calculate WAR at the end of the post. Baseball reference explains the concept well here.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
 
For reference, here is a list of total WAR produced by players from last season. No surprise that Mike Trout leads the list at 10.55.
 
http://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders/_/type/seasonal/year/2016
Travis writes that those three players had a WAR of 16 combined which is relatively high for three players. If you were counting on three players to come up with 16 wins, I would consider this to be a sort of "stars and scrubs model". The problem this creates is that those three players consisted of just over 50% of the teams total WAR. The chart below from FanGraphs shows the 6 division winners from last season.
 
Talent Distribution of 2016 Division Winners
 
Team --- Top Three WAR players -------- Total WAR ------ Top Three % of team WAR
Cubs = 18.3 = 59.1 = 30.9
Dodgers = 19.6 = 47.8 = 41.0
Nationals = 15.8 = 46.6 = 33.9
Red Sox = 18.2 = 52.5 = 34.6
Indians = 16.2 = 46.2 = 35.1
Rangers = 12.4 = 28.6 = 43.3
from FanGraphs
 
You see a more balanced attack from a WAR standpoint except for maybe the exception of the Rangers who have a lower WAR than most but we all remember what happened to them in the playoffs...
 
Now lets move our focus to the Twins. Would you be surprised if I told you the Twins had the Third worst pitching WAR in the league last season? I didn't think so. Fortunately, Dozier was able to bump up the total WAR. He lead the team at 5.9, the next 5 look like this,
 
Player WAR
Ervin Santana = 3.5
Byron Buxton = 1.7
Eduardo Nunez = 1.7
Rick Nolasco (its true) = 1.5
Miguel Sano =1.3
 
Many other players float around the 0 to 1 mark and 0 to -1. To put it in simple terms. Arguably, it wasn't a good all around season for anyone except for Dozier and Big Erv. Those were also the only two on the list who played a full season. Robbie Grossman would have made the list if he weren't such a liability defensively.
 
Looking forward, FanGraphs has the Twins predicted in a similar spot with pitching again being a problem. Given the market size in terms of salary and how little moves the Twins made its tough to predict a different season from a WAR standpoint unless the young guns like Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Berrios etc. really step up. I, like many others reading this are hopeful that is the case. Even though its been said for years, these players potential is unmatched. Oh no, its my homer side coming out again.
 
Relating it back to the article by Travis, to be successful, a team needs depth and the "stars and scrubs" isn't efficient in most cases. Not only did the Cubs have their top 3 players represent only 30% of the team WAR but had their total position players WAR and pitching WAR were both in the top 5 of the league. Dozier and Ervin Santana represented 45% of the Twins total team WAR.
 
The Twins are in a position where its at the least possible. Stay hopeful fellow Twins fans as we gear up for another season.
 
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for some other geeky stat or stats next time.
 
 
Here is some more information on the calculations of WAR from FanGraphs.
 
Calculation:
Calculating WAR, especially for position players, is simpler than you’d think. If you want the detailed version with the precise steps and formulas, head to our page on Position Player WAR or Pitcher WAR. The short answer, though, is as follows:
● Position players – To calculate WAR for position players you want to take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player. After that, you simply take that sum and divide it by the runs per win value of that season to find WAR. The simple equation looks something like this:
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
● Pitchers – While position player WAR is based on Batting Runs and Fielding Runs, pitching WAR uses FIP (with infield fly balls), adjusted for park, and scaled to how many innings the pitcher threw. FIP is translated into runs, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins. This is a slightly more complicated process than for position players and there will be a new post detailing exactly how we do this in the next week or so (stay tuned!)