Tom Froemming

The Giants and Red Sox are two of the most successful franchises in baseball over the past 20 years but fell on hard times the previous couple of years. They’re back atop the league again, and they’re proving these three things are unnecessary ... Before we get into those three items, here’s a video that takes a bit of a deeper look at where the Giants and Red Sox were the past couple years and how they re-emerged after quiet offseasons. You Don’t Need A Rebuild All that recent success makes it easy to forget neither the Giants or Red Sox made the postseason the past two years (four years for the Giants). That’s especially noteworthy since 16 teams qualified for the playoffs in last year’s shortened season. With aging rosters and former stars on bloated contracts, both orgs were in the type of position where rebuilding had to have been considered. Yes, Boston traded away Mookie Betts prior to last season, but they never turned it into a full-on tear down, throw in the towel type situation. Meanwhile, several of the league’s bottom teams repeat their place in the standings year after year. Some organizations like the Houston Astros have made rebuilds work in the not-so-distant past, but they are looking more like the exception than the rule. Re-tooling can work. You Don’t Need A Flashy Offseason The Twins spent more on free agents this past offseason than both the Giants and Red Sox. The Twins shelled out $41.75 million while the Giants spent $41.35 million and the Red Sox were at $38.95 million. On the flip side, those teams actually acquired a greater number of players (10 signed for the Giants and eight for Boston), choosing to spread the wealth more than the Twins (six players). Meanwhile, the top two spending teams last winter (the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies) and three of the top-five spenders (adding the New York Mets) all missed the playoffs. And if there’s any team that “won” the 2020-21 offseason it was the San Diego Padres. That’s where their winning streak ended. The offseason most definitely matters — the 2021 Twins are as much proof of that as any team — but big splashes and flashy signings (or lack thereof) still don’t guarantee anything. You Don’t Need A Lavish Bullpen There are some expensive, big-name bullpens among this year’s playoff participants but Boston and San Francisco are not among them. The Red Sox have a couple of highly-paid members of their bullpen, but Garrett Richards isn’t there by design (he was signed as a starter) and Adam Ottavino was acquired as a salary dump. It’s not as if either of those guys is exactly a difference-maker, either. In fact, the Red Sox bullpen leader in WAR was Garrett Whitlock, their Rule 5 pick. They had eight different pitchers record saves in the second half alone, including former Twins great Hansel Robles. The Giants have done even more with a great deal less invested. They signed Jake McGee to a modest two-year, $7 million deal, just $2 million of which was paid this season. Oh, and he was their highest-paid reliever. McGee ended up as one of only nine pitchers to save 30 games this season. San Francisco had a handful of underpaid studs in their pen including Tyler Rogers, Jarlin Garcia, Jose Alvarez, Zack Littell (ouch) and Dominic Leone. When McGee went down, however, it was rookie Camilo Doval who stepped up and was the National League reliever of the month for September. He had a 4.99 ERA and a 7.0 BB/9 in 28 games at Triple-A this season! Sometimes a reliever just happens. That’s exactly the kind of thing the Twins need next year. The Giants ranked sixth in bullpen WAR (per FanGraphs) and the Red Sox were ninth, a spot ahead of the Mets, who ended the year with four of the top-20 paid relievers in baseball (Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Trevor May and Edwin Diaz). The Mets also only won four more games than the Twins this year. The Twins have a long way to go from 89 losses back to contention, but they don’t need to tear it down, have an extravagant offseason or spend big on risky bullpen arms to do so. The Giants and Red Sox are proof of that. View full article

The Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants are two of the five teams still alive in the MLB postseason. They were both also outspent by the Minnesota Twins in free agency this past offseason. Here's a look back on the journey the Red Sox and Giants made back to the top of the baseball world despite not having flashy offseasons. Could the Twins replicate that success in 2022? View full video

Not sure how this suggests velocity *only* makes pitchers good or great. I don't think it should be controversial to say you don't want to rank near the absolute bottom in velo, or really any kind of pitching metric, right? Also, simply "the Twins need better pitchers" would have made for a pretty short and boring article, don'tchathink?

I'd think you'd have a difficult time finding any MLB pitching statistics that have r values in excess of .7, but I've never tried to figure that out. I was thinking maybe K-BB%, but K-BB% to fWAR was .524 over that three-year stretch (though it was also -.525 to ERA, much better than those velo numbers).

I mentioned that toward the end of the article, but here are the numbers 2019-21 sorted by 95+ mph %. Of course there are some exceptions, but generally it's a lot of green at the top and a lot of red at the bottom. Team 95+% vFA (pi) ERA FIP xFIP WAR CHW 24.9 94.8 4.22 4.13 4.17 41.2 NYM 22.7 94.9 4.24 4.32 4.33 46.7 CIN 19.3 94.3 4.08 4.22 4.15 46.1 NYY 19 93.9 3.18 3.66 3.84 61.1 COL 18.9 94.3 5.27 4.90 4.66 22.7 BOS 18.4 93.5 3.99 4.05 4.04 45.2 TBR 18.3 94.1 3.66 3.76 3.93 50.3 SDP 18 94.4 4.24 4.23 4.11 45.9 LAD 18 93.4 4.43 4.54 4.68 23.1 HOU 15.2 94.1 4.29 4.15 4.15 36 ATL 15 94.2 4.66 4.28 4.30 35.5 PHI 14.9 93.1 3.96 4.19 4.51 41.6 STL 14 93.7 4.11 4.27 4.32 32.5 KCR 14 93.3 4.91 4.79 4.72 21.9 TEX 13.8 93.8 3.81 4.09 4.03 47.4 MIL 13 93.7 4.57 4.51 4.24 32.5 CLE 12.7 93.6 3.91 4.33 4.51 30.6 PIT 12.3 93.6 4.83 4.62 4.71 24.4 WSN 12.2 93.3 4.40 4.54 4.51 27.7 MIA 11.6 93.4 4.63 4.58 4.48 31 TOR 10.5 93.6 4.96 4.81 4.74 21.3 DET 10.4 93.5 5.07 4.77 4.70 16.3 SFG 9.6 92.7 5.57 5.24 5.00 21.3 OAK 9.5 93.5 3.94 4.13 4.19 42.3 LAA 9.4 92.7 4.71 4.67 4.73 23.1 CHC 9.1 93.2 3.94 4.11 4.32 33.9 SEA 9 92.7 4.41 4.50 4.31 28.7 BAL 8.2 93.1 4.93 4.63 4.55 28.1 MIN 7.1 92.5 4.36 4.25 4.33 41.6 ARI 6.3 92.5 4.71 4.69 4.67 18.7

That's true, but the Twins also had one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball last year. Doesn't seem like a great model to continue to strive for.

I would say the most-used pitch type matters, yes. Was that at Brooks? Baseball Savant had the Rays at 55.3% fastballs and the Twins at 53.1%.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over a Minnesota Twins team that averaged 92.5 mph on four-seam fastballs. In their fifth year at the helm of the organization, the pitching staff averaged … 92.2 mph on four-seam fastballs. What gives? Before we dig into some of the numbers, here’s a quick video on a handful of harder-throwing starting pitchers who could be value targets for the Twins this offseason: Here is a team-by-team breakdown sorted by average four-seam fastball velocity. It’s color coded, so green is good and red is bad. The information below was gathered from FanGraphs. Team vFA ERA FIP xFIP WAR CHW 95.5 3.73 3.74 3.85 27.1 NYY 94.9 3.76 3.90 4.00 22.3 BOS 94.8 4.27 3.95 4.07 19.2 NYM 94.5 3.90 4.04 3.99 16.4 COL 94.5 4.83 4.47 4.38 13.4 SDP 94.4 4.10 4.18 4.08 12.8 CIN 94.3 4.41 4.34 4.18 16.2 ATL 94.3 3.89 4.08 4.09 15.9 LAD 94.1 3.03 3.54 3.75 26.9 TBR 94.1 3.67 3.79 3.97 18.7 PHI 94.1 4.39 4.15 4.02 17.9 DET 94.1 4.32 4.60 4.65 10.2 KCR 94.0 4.65 4.39 4.52 12.5 CLE 93.9 4.34 4.43 4.27 10.2 MIA 93.8 3.96 4.01 4.21 15.1 SFG 93.7 3.25 3.55 3.87 21.9 TEX 93.6 4.80 4.76 4.57 4.5 TOR 93.5 3.91 4.18 4.06 14.6 STL 93.4 4.00 4.30 4.66 12.1 PIT 93.4 5.08 4.74 4.70 5.0 WSN 93.3 4.82 4.87 4.53 6.5 MIL 93.2 3.50 3.72 3.75 23.5 HOU 93.2 3.78 4.12 4.12 16.9 OAK 93.2 4.02 4.10 4.35 15.1 SEA 93.2 4.30 4.26 4.47 14.3 CHC 93.0 4.88 4.88 4.43 4.9 LAA 92.9 4.68 4.25 4.26 15.4 BAL 92.9 5.85 5.15 4.91 7.9 MIN 92.2 4.83 4.66 4.44 8.2 ARI 92.2 5.15 4.88 4.85 4.0 As you can see, there’s a fairly strong correlation between teams that throw harder and success. Not only are the Twins near the bottom, there’s also a significant gap between them and the Orioles. That 0.7 mph gap is the same as what separates the fourth-place team from the 15th. Let’s switch things up a bit and look at pitches in excess of 95.0 mph instead of average fastball velocity. The information below was gathered from Baseball Savant. The color-coded column is percent of pitches thrown at least 95.0 mph. CWS 27.9 6626 23713 NYY 21.5 5112 23761 BOS 20.8 5033 24193 MIL 20.7 4966 23967 NYM 21.4 4799 22405 PHI 20.0 4745 23739 MIA 20.5 4704 22990 COL 20.0 4603 22960 DET 18.1 4339 23914 CIN 17.6 4316 24548 ATL 18.5 4294 23228 LAD 18.3 4187 22927 TB 17.4 4027 23169 KC 16.5 4017 24307 TOR 16.6 3911 23549 SD 14.0 3386 24196 OAK 14.4 3325 23102 STL 14.1 3299 23419 WSH 13.2 3125 23732 SEA 13.0 3111 23859 CLE 13.0 3057 23459 BAL 10.6 2598 24474 SF 10.4 2386 22859 HOU 9.9 2368 23917 CHC 9.4 2238 23877 PIT 9.3 2225 24045 TEX 8.3 1967 23586 LAA 7.6 1847 24415 MIN 6.4 1516 23714 ARI 5.0 1188 23827 Being 29th is bad enough, but even if the Twins were to double the number of pitches that were 95+ mph they’d still only rank 22nd. The Kansas City Royals threw 2,501 more pitches 95+ mph than the Twins — or 15 more per game played — and they barely rank in the top half of the league themselves. Do the Twins have an aversion to high-velocity pitchers? That seems like a crazy question to ask, but let’s take a look at some former Twins prospects who were shipped out in trades. 2021 % of Pitches 95.0+ mph 66.0 Brusdar Graterol 44.2 Luis Gil 38.4 Huascar Ynoa 15.1 MLB Average 6.4 Minnesota Twins Graterol (Kenta Maeda trade), Gil (Jake Cave trade) and Ynoa (Jaime Garcia trade) all have well above average velo, all were traded away. They also just lost Edwar Colina and his triple-digit heat to waivers. Are the Twins actively avoiding high-octane pitchers? At the very least it sure doesn't feel like they’re making them a priority. This seems like a great time to revisit the Twins carpool commercial from 2007 featuring Johan Santana and Joe Nathan. That’s how you win Cy Youngs, baby! While this ia a velocity-obsessed article, pitching in the big leagues is obviously about more than just throwing hard. It sure does seem to help, though. While the lack of velo is nothing new for the Twins, to be fair, it didn’t prevent them from having successful pitching staffs the previous couple years. Here’s a look at some the numbers throughout the Falvey-era: Minnesota Twins Four-Seam Fastball Velo 2021: 29th, 92.2 mph (26th in ERA) 2020: 30th, 92.0 mph (4th in ERA) 2019: 24th, 93.0 mph (9th in ERA) 2018: 21st, 92.7 mph (22nd in ERA) 2017: 30th, 92.4 mph (19th in ERA) Still, any pitcher who tells you he wouldn’t like to throw harder is either a liar or in denial. View full article

The Minnesota Twins had one of MLB's worst pitching staffs and ranked at the bottom of the league in terms of velocity. Here are five free agent pitchers available this offseason who I could envision the Twins targeting who could both help the staff and bring some velo. View full video

Talking about Mitch Garver as a trade candidate, losing Edwar Colina to the Texas Rangers for nothing, coaching staff changes, Arizona Fall League rosters and more Minnesota Twins offseason news items. View full video

Minnesota Twins owner Jim Pohlad might be the easiest grader in the world. He told the Pioneer Press' Charley Walters that he'd give Twins leadership -- Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and Rocco Baldelli -- an A+. View full video

Byron Buxton hit a home run in what was otherwise a blah game for the Minnesota Twins, who lost. I briefly touch on Luis Arraez, who has been struggling of late. Meanwhile, Jose Miranda picked up another three hits in a big 11-1 win for the St. Paul Saints. Also, the Cedar Rapids Kernels season came to an end as they lost Game 5 of the High-A Central championship series 5-0. View full video

Justin Morneau was inducted into the Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame Saturday night. The Twins fell to the Blue Jays 6-1 but rookie reliever Jovani Moran had a very impressive outing. Also included in this video are highlights of a St. Paul Saints victory that featured a quality start from Drew Strotman. Down in High-A, Sawyer Gipson-Long struck out nine batters and Aaron Sabato hit a home run but the Cedar Rapids Kernels were walked off in a 2-1 loss. That forces a deciding Game 5 in their High-A Central championship series. View full video

Byron Buxton hit a home run off former Minnesota Twins teammate José Berríos in a 3-1 Twins victory Friday. Highlights of that blast plus Bailey Ober, Jose Miranda, Beau Burrows, Jermaine Palacios, Austin Schulfer, Aaron Whitefield, DaShawn Keirsey, Edouard Julien and Alex Isola. View full video

Minnesota Twins utility man Nick Gordon is having a tremendous finish to the season, peaking in September in his first big league season. He had three more hits tonight, including a home run, and drove in four runs as the Twins beat the Blue Jays. Also featured in this video are Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda, B.J. Boyd, Jimmy Kerrigan, Ben Rortvedt, Tomas Telis, Mark Contreras, Jose Miranda and Ryan Mason. View full video