Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jharaldson

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    403

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by jharaldson

  1. jharaldson
    Since Falvey and the Twins have parted ways, a narrative is starting to be shared that Falvey wanted out and that the job is no longer the one he signed up for in 2016 and that the degree of difficulty had gone up.  Listening to the most recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek the guys said:
    “From Falvey’s perspective, the parameters of his job have kept getting worse and worse the past 3 years”
    The frustrating thing about this is while the payroll has decreased since 2023 and that has introduced challenges, there have been 2 significant changes in the MLB that have made his job easier.
    AL Central Payroll
    When Falvey came on in 2016 the average MLB payroll was roughly $131M and the Average AL Central Payroll was $131M.  This is exactly equal and reflected the fact that the AL Central was investing at a reasonable rate.  In 2026, the average MLB payroll is now $179M but the AL Central payroll average is now down to $125M.  This reflects a lack of investment in more teams than the Twins and has provided easier opponents for the Twins and an easier path to the playoffs than other divisions. 
    MLB Playoff Structure
    When Falvey came in after 2016 the MLB was using a playoff format where there were 5 playoff teams per league and this resulted in the Twins playing tougher teams and contributed to their playoff losing streak.  In 2022 the MLB changed this to 6 teams per league and had the 4 weaker teams in the league play each other in the first round which directly resulted in the Twins playing an 89 win team in the Blue Jays and advancing in the playoffs.  Under the limitations that he started with, he likely would have just played the Astros and lost the series 1-3.  The streak would be broken but it would have been a lot more disheartening.
    Conclusion
    Falvey faced headwinds as he left.  Payroll was down for the Twins.  That doesn’t change the fact that he has the easiest division in baseball to make the playoffs in and that the playoffs are now set up for mediocre teams like the Twins to make a little noise. 
  2. jharaldson

    Twins Leadership Diversity

    By jharaldson,


    Diversity
    There are many rumors going around about the Twins managerial search right now.  Will they go with a previous Twins coach like Shelton?  Will they go back to the Twin’s Way and look to Punto?  Will they go outside the org and get a fresh view with someone like Vázquez?  With all these options and more, one thing that should be on Falvey’s mind around this is that the Twins are in some fairly poor company regarding diversity in their Manager and General Managers. Here are some comps:
    Current Year
    In 2025, 8 of the MLB teams had a diverse hire at manager:
    Boston Red Sox - Alex Cora
    Chicago White Sox - Will Venable
    Houston Astros - Joe Espada
    Los Angeles Angels - Ron Washington
    Los Angeles Dodgers - Dave Roberts
    New York Mets - Carlos Mendoza
    St. Louis Cardinals - Oliver Marmol
    Washington Nationals - Dave Martinez
    That isn’t that bad as they are in the 73% of teams that didn’t have a diverse hire in 2025.  Let’s look a little deeper and see how they do when compared to all time:
    MLB History
    In all of MLB history, there are only 5 teams that have never had a diverse hire at Manager:
    Athletics
    Diamondbacks
    Phillies
    Twins
    Yankees
    That makes us one of the 16.66% of teams that has never had a diverse hire at manager.  If you take those 5 teams and look at their General Manager as well, you come down to only 2 franchises that have never had a diverse hire in their Manager or General Manager Positions:
    Athletics
    Twins
    It isn’t a great look to be one of only two teams that have never hired a diverse talent at Manager or General Manager as they are in the bottom 6.66% of teams in this regard.
    Twins History
    Another thing that makes this look especially bad for the Twins is that the previous owner of the Twins stated that the reason the team in in Minnesota is because of racism:

    It isn’t a great look that a team that moved to it current location because of racism has never had a diverse hire in its leadership positions.
    Conclusion
    I don’t think the Pohlad family is racist and I don’t think that Falvey is racist but I am uncomfortable where the Twins are in regards to diversity in the Manager/GM positions.  This is an easy problem to solve.  If we are valuing having a coach from the Falvey admin come back, we can look at Rowson instead of Shelton.  If we value a former Twins coming back, we can look at Hunter or Suzuki instead of Punto.   If we value a voice outside the org then we can look at Vázquez or others.  Let’s not risk the Twins being an answer to the following trivia question, “Who is the last team to only hire white people for their Manager/GM positions?”
     
  3. jharaldson

    What Ever Happened to 50% of Revenue for Payroll?

    By jharaldson,


    Business of Baseball
    Joe Pohald recently stated that he and his family are “just trying to right-size our business.” when he was asked about the $120M payroll for 2024, which is ranked 20 out of the 30 teams.  When I think of the term “right-sizing”, I think of the promise that was made when we approved and funded the stadium for the Twins.  The promise that the Pohlad family made in an 08/13/2008 Star Tribune article called “TWIN CITIES SPORTS OWNERS: the pohlads, minnesota twins BAND OF BROTHERS EXTENDS A LEGACY”

    In another 2008 article Dave St. Peter stated:

    Are the Twins in the process of “right-sizing” their payroll of $120M to match revenue of $240M?  That is a laughable suggestion but let’s back that up with facts.  We know as a fact from the last collective bargaining agreement that all teams get $200 million in revenue sharing.  In addition, it is widely believed that the Twins are getting $40 million+ this year from BSN.  So, without lifting a finger, playing a game, or even having a second to lie to its fans the Twins are making enough revenue to make the 50% rule work for the current payroll.
    What might a team make beyond the revenue sharing and TV deal?  We can estimate that by looking at the Braves and see they made $528 million in 2023 due to their public disclosures as part of Liberty Media.  We also know that the Braves TV Deal is for $68 million a year so if you subtract that and the $200 million in revenue sharing you get $260 million in stadium, licensing, merchandise, etc… revenue.  With the Twin Cities metro area roughly being 60% the size of the Braves let’s assume that the Twins can only generate 60% of the same baseball revenue ($260*60%=$156 million).  The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll.  

    There is no other way to look at this other than a broken promise made to taxpayers and a money grab by some Nepo-babies.
     
  4. jharaldson

    Future of Twins TV

    By jharaldson,


    TV Contract
    As we end 2023, the Twins find themselves at a crossroads regarding local TV revenue.  They have no current plan to replace the $55 million that BSN paid them last year.  This is leading to an expected drop in payroll as revealed by management at an end of year press gathering.  Where we go from here is an open question.  Will the Twins play it safe, let the MLB handle for them, or do something truly innovative and adventurous?  To figure this out we need to look at the options and the money behind each.

    1.    Play it Safe – The option that has been coming up in recent conversations is the Twins cutting a 1 year deal with BSN to play out the string and see what happens next year.  The Twins received roughly $55 million last year from BSN but I would anticipate with Diamond Sports going through a bankruptcy and the Twins wanting a 1 year deal that all the leverage with this would be with BSN.  I would guess a reduction to $40-45 million with the Twins sweating it out every month to see if BSN actually pays or not.  In addition, the Twins weren’t willing to give BSN streaming rights last year so I would doubt they would give them out this year so continued blackouts are possible for folks not on specific cable systems.  
    Upfront Cost - $0
    Likely income 2024 - $40-45 million.  
    Income beyond - $0.
    2.    MLB – MLB broadcast the Padres last year after Diamond Sports backed out midseason and paid 80% of the rights fee which mitigated a total financial disaster but as we go into 2024 MLB will not be in the mood to cover costs for known issues like the Twins and Padres having open rights deals.  In this situation I can see the MLB partnering with the Twins to ensure they have a cable channel, they have adequate production support, and that they have access to MLB.tv tech.  With this move the Twins can make money off of in game advertising which was $40K a game in 2004 but the Twins thought they could increase that and with inflation would be closer $80-100K a game for a potential total of $16 Million.  Ad to that a guess of 50,000 people/bars/businesses able to pay $200 a year for a stream of the Twins and that is another $10 million.
    Upfront Cost - $0
    Likely income 2024 - $26 million 
    Income beyond - $30 million+
    3.    Buy BSN– The Twins are in a unique position where they have the option of buying a channel with a well known location to fans, that has content deals with other local teams, and has broadcast facilities for their various pre and post game shows.  BSN will limp along into 2024 but once Twins games start there were provisions in 2004 to cut the subscriber rate by 33% and I would anticipate since the Victory Sports debacle that the cut rate has only gone up.  The NBA has made a deal in bankruptcy proceedings with Bally that all deals are up after this year so once June of 2024 they basically are Wild Sports North.  I would anticipate that 1.3 million homes they have access to with the $3.07 a month they get from each home would be cut in half on MLB Opening Day and by 75% on NBA Opening day before the channel is worthless.  The Twins are at a point where they can make a capital purchase of this asset for something like the $15-20 million range.  Twins then have access to the $50 million in subscriber fees and can work to increase that without the baggage that Diamond Sports brought.  They have the Ad revenue above of $16 million a year I detailed above.  They can still offer some streaming but since it is staying on cable we are looking at only half of the estimate above ($5 million).  
    Upfront Cost - $20 million
    Likely Income 2024 - $71 Million  
    Income beyond - $75 million+
    I would prefer to have an established storefront that people know and trust, especially when so many of my customers are elderly.  This plan would keep the channel id and allow for some semblance of a planned transition on-air.  Capital costs can be depreciated over time and with the immediate return looking like over $70 million I would personally take the risk, buy the station, and become the “Midwest Sports Channel” again.  Will the Twins take a $20M gamble this offseason or will they fade back and let the MLB and other more aggressive teams take the lead?
  5. jharaldson

    Buxton Injury Vagueness

    By jharaldson,


    Buxton
    Everyone knows that Byron Buxton is struggling with some sort of knee injury.  Some folks are happy with the Twins current plan of playing him at DH, some want him at CF regardless of injury, and some just want more information about the injury because whatever the Twins are doing it doesn’t seem to be working.  I am in the last group and I am personally growing increasingly frustrated with the lack of information coming from the team and derision from the media.

    If you don’t agree with some on Byron Buxton’s situation you “don’t watch the games” or “don’t treat the players like humans” but after the latest media scrum from Rocco on this you “just don’t want to listen”.  I have actually “listened” to a lot of things about Buxton’s knee over the last 2 years.
    I listened when Dan Hayes reported that Buxton knew all of 2022 that he needed a knee surgery and would be out for only 6-8 weeks.  He had that surgery in September and still isn’t in CF.

    I listened when Do-Hyoung Park reported last September that Falvey said there are no tears or structural issues in the knee and it is no worse that what most folks have in their daily lives.  He had that surgery in September and still isn’t in CF.

    I listened when Dan Hayes reported that Byron Buxton reported to camp in good shape and is not limited at all.  Despite the lack of limitations, he still isn’t in CF.

    I listened when the Gleeman & the Geek Progrum said for the entirety of Spring Training that Buxton not playing in games was not concerning and that many modern front offices don’t use games to get ready for the season.  He still isn’t playing games in CF.

    I listened at the beginning of the season when Dan Hayes reported Buxton would be starting the season at DH to avoid crappy weather in April but that Buxton feels great.  He still isn’t in CF.
    And I am listening now they say he physically can't play CF, which I can also see with my own eyes.

    At this point I have lost faith in listening to the Twins and their treatment plans for an injury they are choosing not to disclose.  I am also tired of the media not even trying to ask during the press scrums “What’s wrong with the knee?  Ligament, Cartilage, Meniscus, Arthritis, etc…”  I don’t need an X-Ray or MRI, just a basic injury declaration like hundreds of other MLB players have given in the past. 
  6. jharaldson

    Live BP vs. Spring Training Games

    By jharaldson,


    Spring Training
    There has been a lot made lately of the fact that Byron Buxton has not played an inning in the field or taken a single in-game AB.  If you listen to our players or beat writers you would think that the games are almost unneeded in Spring Training.  Carlos Correa got a late start to Spring games on March 1 and commented that they were not super important.  Do-Hyoung Park posts random short videos of Buxton hitting home runs off of Twins returning from injury like Winder and quotes from Falvey saying Buxton is ready for Opening Day.  Based on this we are supposed to be reassured that everything is OK and normal.
    I am not a medical professional or a baseball coach so I can’t prove any of this wrong but what I can do is see if this type of approach is being taken with any other top players.  I went to Fangraphs and sorted all players with 350 PA or more by OPS.  I then checked how many 2023 Spring Training games they had.  Are a lot of the top players following the Twins and Buxton and effectively sitting out Spring Training games in favor of live batting practice?  The results are fairly conclusive:

    All the major stars are playing spring training games unless they are currently injured or retired.  Not one other major player in the top 30 is following the lead of the Twins.  The only conclusion I can draw is that Buxton is still injured and we are going through mental gymnastics with the Twins trying to justify that he is not. 
    Occam’s Razor states that the simplest explanation is often the correct one.  I would put out there that healthy players play games and injured players don’t.
  7. jharaldson

    1994 Strike Revisited

    By jharaldson,


    Business of Baseball
    As this lockout stretches on I have been thinking back to the last time this happened.  The year was 1994 and Friends had just premiered on NBC, OJ Simpson captured all of our interest while slowly evading police in his white Bronco, and the MLB and MLBPA buzzkilled my fall by killing baseball and the World Series.  I thought it might be fun to take the issues that were being discussed during that work stoppage and see in hindsight who had it right.
    Drug Testing 
    In 1994 the owners submitted a drug testing program as part of their proposal for a labor agreement.  Selig commented on this in testimony to Congress later:
    While MLB gave up way too quickly on this, it was the MLBPA that pushed back.  David Cone, a rep for the players at the time, had some negative memories of his experience:
    In retrospect, with all of the issues impacting the Hall of Fame and the steroid class that followed I would say that the players truly screwed up this part of the negotiations.
    Arbitration
    As part of their proposal to the players the MLB was willing to reduce the years of team control from 6 years to 4 years:
    The players maintained a hardline opposition to a hard cap, which the owners had tied this proposal to, and ultimately rejected it.  In 2022 they have given up on their request to remove 1 year of team control and are now shooting for more Super 2 status.  In addition, the good, young players of this generation are feeling some pressure to sign early extensions that are team friendly because of the team control and I bet they would appreciate being 2 years closer to free agency now.  Another loss in hindsight for the players.
    Cap
    In 1994 the owners submitted a proposal where they would split revenues with the players 50/50 in exchange for a hard cap across all team.  The players rejected this equal distribution of revenue and instead compromised on a luxury tax that is not based on revenue and has effectively been used as a cap since.  In 2021, the payroll for all teams was roughly $4B while the revenue for all teams was roughly $12B.  My math has that at a 33% distribution which means the revered Donald Fehr and the MLB Players negotiated themselves a deal where they earn 17% less revenue.  In 2021 that means the players could have earned $2B more under the owners 1994 proposal.  I don't think that all would have gone to the best players either because even with all that new obligation I would think that the Angels would not increase the money they pay Trout from $37M a year to $56M a year and it would likely mean a lot bigger floor of minimum salaries to meet the %50 revenue obligation.  I would call this a 3rd strike for players.
    Conclusion
    In short, we wouldn't have had the steroid era as badly, players could be free agents 2 years quicker, players would be making 50% more, and we would have had a 1994 World Series if the players hadn't declared a strike and accepted the owners offer.  If only Mr. Peabody's Wayback machine was real?

  8. jharaldson
    This Twins have had a bit of a tortured history with analytics. In 2010 Rob Antony did an interview with TwinsDaily’s own Parker Hageman and revealed some interesting facts about the Twins and Sabermetrics. Antony stated this about their analytics department, “we're probably one of the last, if not the last, team to address it with a person dedicated solely to that.”. He went on further to fail to understand some fairly basic concepts about Sabermetrics. He thought FIP was “first strike in inning pitched” and was unable to guess about BABIP. He then revealed they had just hired their analytics guy and stated he would be “Gathering information and creating databases. This will be his first year. The guy that we brought in will start creating systems to build a foundation of our own that we can look at.” This is what I primarily want to get into as I have a background in IT.
     
    In corporate America one of the techniques we use to understand what our competition is doing is to analyze their job postings. Have they posted an unusually large amount of Sales positions? Are they looking at specific geographic locations that have a concentration of talent? Are they asking for specific or unusual technical skills? These are all things we can look at to try to get an idea of intent and structure. I applied this technique to the Twins and their development job postings and found some interesting things.
     
    2014 Posting
     
    2015 Posting
     
    One of the common details in both job postings is the fact that the Twins were looking for a developer who had experience doing front-end work (HTML, JavaScript), middle tier (.NET Framework, ASP.MVC), and the data layer (SQL Server). This implies a couple of things. The first is that the Twins are employing a standard three-tier architecture for their analytics.


    It also implies that they only have “full stack” developers, which means they are required to know and to be able to develop in all 3 of their architecture tiers. This is problematic because is you are required to be able to code in everything that usually means you are unable to specialize or gain really in-depth knowledge on any single tier. For the Twins to take the next step in analytics I think they need to be hiring specialists in each of these areas.
     
    Another thing I noticed is that the only data store they referred to is SQL Server. The reason that this is important is that the industry still values relational datamarts like SQL Server but they are also moving in the direction of unstructured Big Data repositories as well. Applications like Hadoop, HBASE, MongoDB, and many others allow unstructured data to be quickly stored and analyzed which allows for more experimentation by analysts when compared to a structured DB. I think the PITCH f/x and Trackman data has likely been analyzed enough but I think the next frontier is going into some less structured data. Putting medical records into a big data store and analyzing test results and notes to find patterns in identifying healthier players. Putting free text scouting reports into it and running natural language analytics on them using IBM Watson or some other AI service to identify key language or sentiments that indicate a player that is more likely to succeed. The addition of weather data and the analysis of its impact on specific players. I think there is a lot of room to grow here.
     
    In short, I think it is likely this lack of specialization and not embracing the newer Big Data technologies led Thad Levine and Derek Falvey to go in a new direction this last fall with the analytics department. I wouldn’t be surprised if the hiring surge described in a recent article by Pat Reusse did not include hires to address these concerns. I am interested in your thoughts and feedback.
  9. jharaldson
    It is no secret that this offseason has been particularly slow. Judd Zulgad and Phil Mackey had a conversation about it this week on their radio show because the lack of news was taking the excitement out of the offseason. ESPN has set up a free agency tracker and only 2 of the top 10 free agents have signed and only 7 of the top 20 overall. The 4 top pitchers in this market are unsigned as well (Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn). This glut of unsigned talent this late in the offseason leaves teams with unique opportunities.
     
    http://22927-presscdn.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Yu-Darvish-3-640x355.jpeg
     
    I think the Twins can take advantage of how the market has played out to do something innovative with Yu Darvish. Here are some baseline items I believe are contributing to his unsigned status:
    The Yankees and the Dodgers are staying out of the market due to a desire to reset the luxury tax threshold and by doing so they are creating a void that has yet to be filled.
    Darvish has likely not received any 5 or 6 year offers at this point or I think he would have signed.
    The world series performance by Darvish may be leaving a bad taste in the mouths of many clubs.

    Here are some baseline items in regards to the Twins:
    The Twins have a large bubble payment of $50-68 million coming in Q1 2018 from the MLB sale of BAMTech (Correct Source)
    The Twins need pitching help in the starting rotation, preferably someone with top of the rotation potential.
    The Twins are adverse to long-term free agent contracts which I am putting at anything over 4 years.

    My idea is for the Twins to offer Darvish a massively over market contract for 1 year. Here are the details:
    1 year/$40 million
    Vesting team option for a second year at $15 million if Darvish does not pitch at least 100 innings.
    Majority of the $40 million is in the form of a signing bonus so as to allow a tax favorable payment to Darvish with his current residency being in Texas, a state with no income tax.

    This deal is advantageous to both parties given the current climate. Darvish gets a number of positive outcomes:
    Extremely high salary for 1 year.
    Significant tax savings.
    The ability to re-enter the market in 2019 when the Dodgers and Yankees will theoretically be back in the mix.
    The chance to put the bad World Series performance out of teams minds.
    Ability to play with a team with good outfield defense and that is on the rise.

    The Twins get a number of things in return as well:
    They get the services of a potential ace pitcher, similar to what they did in 1991 with Jack Morris.
    The Twins are not on the hook for a massive 5+ year contract.
    The Twins have a dedicated funding source (BAMTech money) to fund this initiative. If they don’t spend it in this fashion it is likely just going to go to the Pohlad family and won’t improve the team.
    The Twins are protected in case of injury due to the team option provision.

    Will the Twins try to innovate in this fashion? I am not certain. This would be the highest per year contract ever given out in MLB history. The current leader is Greinke with a per year average of $34.5 million. The Pohlad’s have not shown a willingness to be big spenders on the open market and Falvine have yet to show it as well. Darvish may also have some apprehension. He may decide that a 4 year/$100 million offer provides more security. He may blow out his arm at any point in 2018 and want the security of the long term contract, even if it is not as long term and as valuable as he might have hoped.
     
     
    What are your thoughts? Do you like this 1 year approach? Who do you think says no? Please leave comments, thanks!
  10. jharaldson
    I have been kicking around the idea of trying to contribute to this site for a number of years. John Bonnes recently posted about the future of Twins Daily and how it might be in jeopardy if more writers and bloggers don’t step forward so that was enough of a kick in the pants to see if my ideas will translate to interesting articles or not. This blog is going to focus on the off the field happenings of the Minnesota Twins. Topics will include free agency, contracts, trades, payroll, drafting, staff decisions, tv and radio deals, medical issues, etc… My first entry will be posted immediately after this and is about an innovative approach the Twins can take on signing Yu Darvish. Hope you enjoy!
×
×
  • Create New...