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Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins greatest need is starting pitching. Obviously, that is a similar narrative for many teams across the sport, but there's little denying that things line up for the hometown team to make a big splash in the starting rotation. While Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana are locks among the five this year, Paul Molitor will have to quickly find out what Kyle Gibson he has in 2018.
 
The former 1st round (22nd overall) pick by Minnesota in 2009 has been the focus of many stories wondering if it will ever all come together. Making his big league debut at the age of 25 back in 2013, Gibson now embarks on his 6th MLB season, and will be doing so at the age of 30. He's yet to pitch more than 195 innings in a season, and his career 4.70 ERA speaks of mediocrity in the truest sense of the word. A pitch-to-contact type, Gibson's career 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 doesn't leave much to get hyped about, simply showing a level of predictability.
 
Rewind back to mid-2017 however, and Gibson appeared to buck his own narrative. Despite looking like a non-tender candidate for the early part of the year, the former Mizzou Tiger landed a 2018 arbitration deal that will come in somewhere around $5 million. Now the question is, how did he get there and will it continue?
 
A year ago, Gibson's first 17 starts for the Twins added up to a 6.29 ERA and a .920 OPS. He was sent down to Triple-A, and was dealt a hard dose of reality. After posting a 5.07 ERA in 2016, the 3.84 ERA from 2015 looked like a distant memory. Then, in a get-right opportunity, Gibson turned things around against the hapless Detroit Tigers on July 22nd. Twirling 7.1 IP of three-run ball, it was the first time since September 13, 2016 that he pitched at least seven innings. From that point on, a period of 12 starts, Gibson owned a 3.57 ERA and allowed opponents to tally just a .699 OPS. The change was drastic, and the sample size was indicative of it being sustainable. Going forward though, can he replicate what drove that success?
 
First and foremost, Gibson missed significantly more bats. In his first 17 starts from 2017, Gibson generated strikeouts just 14.1% of the time, while walking 10.4% of batters he faced. Those numbers are a far cry from the 22.1% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate posted in the final 12 times on the mound. By getting more batters out on his own, he also increased his strand rate from 68.1% to 79.2%.
 
Virtually all of Gibson's balls put in play remained comparable by the percentages. He didn't have a drastic change in line drive, ground ball, or fly ball rates. He was able to shave just about 5% off of his HR/FB rate however. The dip in balls leaving the park could potentially be attributed to a slight swing (roughly 4%) of outcomes taken away from hard contact, and added to soft contact. What that also suggests however, is that we dive into the repertoire.
In looking at Gibson's offerings, I think there's a few takeaways to consider. First and foremost, there was a drastic change in regards to how Kyle attacked the strikezone. After predominantly working in the lower half of the zone through his bad stretch, Gibson attacked higher in the zone and on the corners down the stretch. Not being a high velocity pitcher (averaging 92.7 mph on his fastball) forcing the ball up in the zone can help to get it on hitters quicker. Obviously the swing plane changes based upon pitch location, and the added advantage of going up and in suggests Gibson felt more comfortable challenging opposing hitters.
 
Secondly, there was one pitch that jumped off the page during his success. After using his slider just 14% of the time through his first 1,495 pitches in 2017, the usage jumped over 20% through his final 1,115 pitches on the season. The numbers didn't equate to the career high 22.1% of sliders he threw a year ago (in fact he was at just 17.8% on the season), but it was clearly an offering he felt comfortable going back to. Notably, the slider also became somewhat of an out pitch. Looking at Gibson's pitch types by count courtesy of Baseball Savant, favorable counts saw a significant amount of the sweeping pitch. Despite being more of an afterthought early in the year, the slider generated 5% swinging strikes in the second half (compared to 3% in the first).
 
Finally, the slight changes allowed Gibson to see a difference in the results of batted balls against him. Launch angle for opposing hitters decreased, while barreled balls fell off a cliff. Gibson was generating slightly more weak contact, and the quality of balls being put into the field of play as a whole had sunk. Likely an indicator of the process as a whole, as opposed to any one single scenario, Gibson was seeing a payoff for his new tactics.
 
As a whole, it's hard to suggest that 2018 will see a full season of Gibson at his best. While the positive signs were shown down the stretch, none of the changes were revolutionary, and the differences were rather minor in the grand scheme of things. With a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, maybe Gibson will find even more success with his slider than before. What we don't know, is whether the slight differences translate to sustainability for a 30 year old over the course of 30-plus starts. I do think that there's enough reason to believe Gibson can be more of his 2015 self than he's been each of the past two seasons however, and that would give Minnesota a quality back end option.
Even before adding another high-level arm into the fold, the Twins will have a stable of options to round out the rotation. With youth as a disadvantage, pitchers like Gibson and Phil Hughes will have to put their best foot forward on a nightly basis to set themselves apart. I'm not going to suggest Gibson will live up to his pre-debut hype, but serviceable seems to be a fair bet in 2018.
 
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As the Major League Baseball offseason trudges on, and the Winter Meetings soon commence, it's time to take a look at what the Minnesota Twins have on the farm. Over the past few years, the Twins have drafted higher in the draft, allowing them to stockpile talent replacing those who have graduated. Although the current class isn't headlined by a Byron Buxton, it's overall level is impressive.
 
Here at Off The Baggy, this will now be my third annual Top 15 Twins Prospect list. You can find 2016 here, and 2017 here. Many of those names are now on the big league club, and a few have moved on to other organizations. Prepping us for the season ahead, here's how I see the next wave of future Twins greats.
 
15. LaMonte Wade OF
 
A 9th round selection in the 2015 MLB Draft, Wade has continued to impress at each stop for the Twins. He ripped off an .805 OPS across 117 games at Double-A Chattanooga this year, and the seven home runs continue to suggest there's a bit of pop in his bat. Wade makes a ton of contact, and has walked more than he's struck out at each level. He may not have an All-Star ceiling, but being a nice rotational outfielder seems like a good bet.
 
14. Zack Littell SP
 
Brought into the organization through the Jaime Garcia deal with the Yankees, Littell provides an immediate boost to a club looking for pitching. He was lights out in the Eastern League, and continued to roll with Chattanooga. His strikeouts and walks both went in suboptimal directions following the trade, but it was a small seven game sample size. He has real strikeout ability, and should be a capable middle-of-the-rotation starter for Minnesota as early as 2018.
 
13. Brusdar Graterol SP
 
If there's an arm on the farm capable of challenging Fernando Romero's velocity, it's probably Greterol's. Just 19, he fared well in both the GCL and Appy League's this past season. With a big velocity fastball, and some solid secondary offerings, he's had no problem mowing down hitters at the lower level. He'll need to hone in command as he works on promotions, but the electric stuff makes him among the most intriguing Twins prospects in the system.
 
12. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
Returning to the mound following Tommy John surgery, Thorpe had a long road to recover. However, he made 16 starts in 2017, and was nothing short of impressive. With Fort Myers, he posted a 2.69 ERA and struck out 9.8 batters per nine. Walks have been a concern both in Cedar Rapids, and in the Florida State League, but an acclimation period is to be expected. If he can settle in to start 2018, he may be less than two years away, and should be a dependable lefty on the bump.
 
11. Blayne Enlow SP
 
Enlow was taken in the 3rd round of the 2017 MLB Draft, yet has true first round talent. Pitching at 18 right out of high school, he owned a 1.33 ERA across 20.1 IP in the GCL. His advanced command was nice to see, and there wasn't a time that he took the mound where it wasn't can't miss baseball. Although high school pitchers have a rough track record to go against, Enlow has all the makings of a special talent.
 
10. Travis Blankenhorn
 
After getting to Cedar Rapids a year ago, Blankenhorn spent the entirety of the 2017 season there. His average dropped off some, but the on-base percentage held strong. His .784 OPS was still more than respectable, and following up the 10 homers in 2016 with 13 in 2017 was nice to see. I'm not sure if he'll end up sticking more at second or third going forward, but he's a kid that's continued to come into his own.
 
9. Tyler Jay
 
Taken 6th overall in the 2015 draft, the road through the minors has been anything but smooth for Jay. Dealing with injuries, and shifting roles, he finally looks on track for the 2018 season. He recorded just 11.2 IP a year ago, but was able to get in 9.2 IP of work during the Arizona Fall League. The new front office hasn't yet ruled out using him as a starter, but I think he's best suited in the pen. He could slot into a future closer role, and the strikeout stuff is definitely there. If he's healthy, I'd imagine Minnesota may be able to call on him midway through 2018.
 
8 Alex Kirilloff
 
Thanks to Tommy John surgery, Kirilloff sat out the entirety of the 2017 season. Obviously for a position player, the surgery is much less of an issue. He put up a solid .794 OPS in his debut season with Elizabethton, and should be expected to pick up where he left off. It remains to be seen if Kirilloff can stay in the outfield, but if the bat plays, the Twins will no doubt find a place for it.
 
7. Felix Jorge SP
 
The good thing was that Jorge got a test of the big leagues in 2017. The bad thing was how those 7.2 IP went (10.57 ERA). Not to worry, I don't think that's indicative of the young starter's future. Still with just three starts at Triple-A under his belt, Jorge has time for growth. He should start 2018 with Rochester, and as he finds his command there, should make his way back to the Twins rotation. He's more of a pitch-to-contact type, but he keeps the ball in the yard and profiles as a nice back-end starting option.
 
6. Brent Rooker OF
 
Looking at how they've started out, I'm not sure it's possible for me to like the top of the 2017 Twins draft class any more than I already do. Rooker is the lone bat of the group, and he's an incredibly good one. After destroying the SEC in his final year, he made both the Appalachian and Florida State Leagues look easy. Minnesota could be aggressive and start him at Double-A in 2018, which I would hope for, and we may even see him in Twins Territory by season's end.
 
5. Wander Javier SS
 
The first of three top five shortstop prospects for the Twins, Javier just continues to gain steam. I walked away from watching him live during spring training in awe, and think he has a chance to be special. Playing his first season stateside, Javier owned an .855 OPS with Elizabethton. As he continues to fill out, there will be more power to come, but he's a true gap hitter with what seems like a decent chance to stick at short.
 
4. Nick Gordon SS
 
Creeping towards top-50 prospect status in all of baseball, Gordon had somewhat of a disappointing season. The .749 OPS was a career high, but there's questions as to whether or not he can stick at shortstop. The hope is that either the bat or the glove will pick up significantly and start to point towards what type of big leaguer he may be. At just 22, the Twins still have some time but it would be great to see Gordon have a breakout 2018.
 
3. Fernando Romero SP
 
Having arguably the best chance at turning into a potential ace among all Twins pitching prospects, Romero had another solid season in 2017. Making his Double-A debut, he started 23 games and pitched a career high 125.0 innings. His walk rate did spike a bit, but the strikeout numbers held strong. He has upper 90's velocity, and has shown strong pitchability thus far throughout the minors. There's probably an outside chance we see him with the Twins, at least briefly, at some point in 2018.
 
2. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
Cracking Top 100 prospect lists for the first time prior to last season, Gonsalves is finally starting to get some of the national recognition he deserves. The lefty isn't flashy, but he's ridiculously consistent, and he's very good. His 2.68 ERA and 9.9 K/9 followed up a strong 2016 showing, and he made his Triple-A debut this past year. Aside from one start, he excelled at the highest minor league level (3 starts), and his overall command was sharpened a year ago. Expect him to slot in for the Twins at some point in the upcoming campaign.
 
1. Royce Lewis SS
 
Selected as the first overall pick in the 2017 draft, Lewis has been exceptional in his brief time as a pro. Making quick work of the GCL, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids for their playoff run. Despite being just 18 years old, he owned a .757 OPS and batted .296 in a league he was over three years younger than the average. He should easily be a top 50 prospect in all of baseball heading into 2018, and there's a case to be made that he is ranked within the top 25-30. We're still a few years away from seeing him with Minnesota, but early indications suggest Lewis is worth the price of admission.
 
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It’s not often that I allow someone in my mentions to get me so wound up that I devote an entire, stand-alone article to a single person, but here we are.
 
The tweet in question — feel free to click and read the mind-bending thread in all its glory — appears as follows:
http://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Capture-1.jpg
 
NOTE: This person has since blocked me for reasons that don’t entirely make sense. He has also deleted the tweets, so I have saved this screenshot to remember his weird rant, which also included alluding to the Twins not going after Shohei Otani because of how poorly ByungHo Park and Tsuyoshi Nishioka panned out. Bad takes all around!
 
It’s not often that baseball provides irrefutable evidence in a discussion. Nobody can rationally debate that the Houston Astros won the World Series or who won the Gold Glove awards which were handed out on Tuesday night. Those are set in stone.
 
But in debates, there can always be varying levels of certainty, different angles being pursued by those involved and a number of other situations at play. In this case, the general debate is that the Twins front office messed up at the trade deadline.
 
And quite frankly, there is no evidence to back that up.
 
None.
 
The back story to the debate centers around the Twins having the second-most available in their July 2 pool to sign international free agents. This looms especially large this offseason with Japanese phenom Shohei Otani petitioning to come over.
 
Part of the reason the Twins have that much money is that they received some back from the Washington Nationals in the Brandon Kintzler trade.
 
This is where that debate begins, as the party in question says the Twins “had no business trading legitimate major-league pitching at the deadline last year.”
 
The simplest — and possibly laziest — form of logical fallacy is revisionism. In other words, looking at a situation and how it plays out, then saying “Well I wouldn’t have done THAT” without offering anything in the way of a solution.
 
Even that isn’t in Mr. Papas’ favor. Why?
 
Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this story in its entirety.

As the Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners were announced of the night of November 7th, Byron Buxton was a lock. Yes, there were surprises among the finalists, but it was a certainty that the Twins centerfielder would win his first. There wasn't going to be a Mauer-esque snub, or a Dozier-like surprise, Byron Buxton is the best centerfielder baseball currently has to offer. With the Gold Glove solidifying that belief as reality, the question now becomes, how many more follow it?
 
To recap a bit, Buxton was nothing short of exceptional in the outfield for the Twins this season; you don't need sabermetrics to inform you of that. Looking at the numbers, he posted 24 DRS, a 9.9 UZR, 12.6 RngR, and a 13.1 UZR/150. In short, it was both his speed and his routes that made him the most impressive centerfielder in the game. Statcast (via Baseball Savant) came out with a new metric, Outs Above Average, for 2017 as well. Buxton's 25 OAA led all of baseball, and was also better than the total any other team (Rays 2nd with 23) could muster. For his efforts, Buxton's ability added 6 percent to expected catch percentages on balls hit his way.
 
It seems that each time Statcast puts forth a new defensive metric, it's Buxton that finds himself at the top. The 26 four-star outs he recorded in 2017 were an MLB best, and the 92.9% conversion rate on those outs (26-28) were also tops in the major leagues. With a 30.2 ft/s sprint speed on the basepaths, Buxton has also taken the crown as the fastest player in The Show. You'll likely be looking for a while to find something he doesn't excel at in the field.
Whether just watching him from afar, or taking a deeper dive into the advanced analytics, it's apparent that the kid from Baxley, GA is special.
 
So, with one Gold Glove now is his trophy case, the question becomes how many join it? Knowing what we do at this moment about his career, and what we can project going forward, I think there's a couple places we can point to in making an educated guess.
 
First and foremost, there's going to need to be a level of offense that follows Buxton's path. While the Gold Glove is a defensive award, Joe Mauer was left out for bigger offensive names, and Brian Dozier was included (and won) for his prowess with the bat. A guy like Buxton, so far beyond normal realms in the field, is going to be given more of a pass with his bat. For both the Twins and Buxton going forward though, the dish can't simply be a place where he punts. The good news is that a rebuilt swing under James Rowson has made it seem like that won't be the case.
 
Buxton ended 2017 with a career best .728 OPS despite hitting below the Mendoza Line for the first two months of the year. Across his final 82 games of 2017, Buxton owned an .801 OPS with a .278 AVG and a .332 OBP. In a full season, those numbers elevate Buxton to All-Star status, with at least a couple of MVP votes along the way. For a guy that's hit at every level of his career, I think we've only begun to see the offensive production begin to blossom, and that's quite the comforting development.
 
Outside of what Buxton can do in the field or at the plate, it will be integral for him to stay healthy as well. While there are times that routes are less than crisp, or closing speed allows for miraculous catches, the Twins centerfielder often finds himself acquainted with immobile objects. Finding a way to balance the ability to save games, but also not miss them will be a must as his career goes on. Outfield walls are far from forgiving, and missing stretches of play from crashing into them is hardly an ideal tradeoff. Some of Buxton's biggest highlights have included physical altercations with field dimensions, but he'll need to take care of himself from a longevity point of view.
 
Finally, how much can Buxton unlock from his arm. With advanced metrics measuring all aspects of defensive output, Byron has an opportunity to push the envelope with his throwing ability. A strong arm that can touch the mid-90s, accuracy seemed to leave him at points during 2017. Whether throws sail up the line, or miss cutoffs in certain scenarios, cutting down runners with more pinpoint accuracy is only going to enhance his defensive offerings as a whole.
 
Looking across the landscape of centerfielders, and specifically those that played for the Minnesota Twins, I'm comfortable putting Buxton Gold Glove over/under at nine. It's the same number that Torii Hunter won, and three more than Kirby Puckett tallied.
 
As a betting man myself, I'll take the under, but only slightly. My fear is that Buxton's reckless abandon costs him time at some points during his career, and that will hold him back from putting up the counting stats. If healthy however, Buxton is easily the best centerfielder I've ever seen, and watching him reach double-digits in the Gold Glove department would be an absolute treat.
 
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This is an excerpt from a Zone Coverage article which appears in full here. Please click the link.
 
The Minnesota Twins exhibited significant growth in 2017, winning 85 games just one season after crumbling to the depths of 103-loss despair. A lot of it was done with in-house guys, as the only significant additions were a decent reliever (Matt Belisle) and a good catcher (Jason Castro).
 
The rest of the bump came from within. But if we saw anything in October, it was that, while the Twins were impressive in 2017, they were still a cut below the teams that played deep into the autumn.
 
That all changes this offseason.
 
The Twins have the ability to maximize their talent with some payroll flexibility that starts as soon as next winter. Large contracts like Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana come off the books then, and Phil Hughes ($13.2 million) is just a year behind that. What it means is basically this: while the youngsters are still in their cheap years, the front office should act quickly to add some veteran glue types to see what this team is capable off in the near-term.
 
Houston did it with guys like Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran and Evan Gattis. The Twins can structure deals this offseason with some more money toward the back when they don’t have much payroll committed — for instance, they have just $24.2 million committed to 2019 and just $500k on a buyout to Byungho Park that is fully committed in 2020 — or they can wait out this next year and hit the market hard when guys like Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Yasmani Grandal and a host of starting pitchers hit the market.
 
But going another year down the road without supplementing this core gets the team closer to bigger paydays from some of the great young players on this roster — and that’s risky. So with that in mind, here’s this offseason’s winter blueprint — and it’s what some might call a non-typical Twins offseason:
 
Free Agents

Matt Belisle (attempt to re-sign late in winter if he’s still available)
Bartolo Colon (do not attempt to re-sign)
Dillon Gee (same as Belisle)
Glen Perkins (offer minor-league deal with invite to spring training)
Hector Santiago (see Belisle and Gee)

 
There’s nothing too crazy here. If all else falls apart and the Twins want to bring back Belisle on a one-year deal, that isn’t egregious. It’s not something the Twins should be considering right out of the gates however, as despite the strong finish to his season, Belisle is still heading into the twilight of his career. Gee gave the Twins some solid innings but they should aim higher, and Santiago has good enough career numbers that he might be an interesting fall-back option. Honestly, he has been really bad as a Twin, but who knows? Maybe he could be good out of the bullpen. A lefty who adds a couple ticks when shifting to the pen? Sounds familiar. Speaking of, I’m all for a reunion with Perkins to see where he’s at after a winter of workouts. No harm, no foul.
 
Remaining outrights
Nik Turley (re-sign to minor-league deal)
Buddy Boshers (re-sign to minor-league deal)
Kennys Vargas (sell rights overseas or explore trade)
Ryan O’Rourke (activate from 60-day DL, re-sign to minor-league deal)
Michael Tonkin (do not attempt to re-sign)

 
I don’t think these are all that controversial. In fact, if the Twins need the roster spot, they could probably outright Phil Hughes, too. He won’t be claimed with $26.4 million left on his deal, and will possibly need time to recuperate from a recurrence of thoracic outlet syndrome. Bringing back this trio of lefties for some minor-league depth won’t hurt, either.
 
Arbitration decisions (figures via MLB Trade Rumors)

Chris Gimenez – $1 million (tender)
Eduardo Escobar – $4.9 million (tender)
Kyle Gibson – $5.3 million (tender)
Ehire Adrianza – $1 million (tender)
Robbie Grossman – $2.4 million (tender, but trade)
Trevor May – $600k (tender)
Ryan Pressly – $1.6 million (tender)

With Major League Baseball free agency ready to get underway, general managers and organizations will begin pitching to players why they should sign with their respective teams. For the Twins, pitching will once again remain a focus, but for a team looking to take the next step, a nice offensive additional may not be a bad play. There's multiple options out there, but a former divisional foe should be the place they turn first. That guy is Carlos Santana.
 
The former Cleveland Indians slugger is out on the open market, and while he'll almost certainly have a qualifying offer attached to him, it makes sense for a competitive organization to part with a draft pick for his services. The soon-to-be 32 year-old is coming off a season in which he posted an .818 OPS and launched 23 long balls for the Indians. Even if Derek Falvey didn't have previous Cleveland ties, a match here seems to make a lot of sense.
Judging the Twins needs on offense, the most glaring area last year was a right-handed power bat. If that player could offer something on defense, that would only further the notion of it being a well-found pairing. Santana is a switch hitter, and while he hit righties better in 2017, he's been a tick better (.815 OPS vs .809 OPS) from the right side over the course of his career.
 
Defensively, he's long since moved out from behind the plate, having not caught a game since 2014. Outside of a seven game stint in right-field during 2017, Santana has honed his craft at first base and designated hitter. While he can be a hitter only, serving as the Indians DH in 92 games during 2016, his first base abilities have generally led him to play the game with a glove at his disposal as well. Over the course of 140 games at first base this season, Santana was among the premium defenders at the position. He posted 10 DRS, a 4.8 UZR, and 1.4 RngR. While Eric Hosmer is a laughable inclusion among the Gold Glove finalists, Santana should be considered a real candidate to win the award along with Mitch Moreland.
 
For Minnesota, the acquisition of Santana would likely make Robbie Grossman expendable. Whether or not the Twins tender a contract to the switch hitting outfielder, Grossman served as a capable bat in the DH role. For the club to take a step forward next season however, pushing for more than just an on-base machine would be a good practice. Grossman's .741 OPS wasn't the .828 mark he produced in 2016, but the .361 OBP was again respectable. However, he combined to hit just 20 homers over the past two seasons, and put up a total of just 41 doubles.
 
In Santana, the Twins would be adding to a lineup that has already proven capable of winning games, and doing so without hurting their defense. Santana would be able to spell Joe Mauer at first base, giving the Twins two very good defensive options. Grossman's production would be expanded upon, and a guy like Kennys Vargas would no longer need to surface in the starting lineup. Santana has clubbed 57 homers over the past two seasons, while averaging over 20 in each full season of his career. Add to that the consistent doubles production of around 30 a season, and Minnesota would find themselves with some additional thump to the middle of the order.
 
Along the lines of priority, I've suggested that the Twins add a starting pitcher and two relievers prior to adding a bat. In reality though, I think a productive offseason consists of each of those four acquisitions becoming a reality. Whether or not Santana is the first domino to fall or the last, it doesn't preclude the club from making the other necessary decisions to put their best foot forward for the 2018 season.
 
At this point, the door for competitive baseball has begun to open for Minnesota, and as young players like Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Byron Buxton continue to blossom, supplementing them with other proven threats is a must. The Indians are going to remain the team to beat in the AL Central, but counting the Twins out for the division and beyond is probably a foolish decision. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can make this club even more of a contender by being aggressive as the time appears right.
 
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Hello all,
 
It is a great time of the year to be a baseball rumor junkie and (finally) a Twins fan. In last years blueprint forum I advocated a complete teardown in trading both Dozier and Santana. This year I am advocating for just the opposite. I think the Twins are entering year 1 of a 5-year window to truly contend. I say 5 years because that is one year longer than the Twins have team control over key players such as Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, and Buddy Boshers (Kidding). I extend this by 1 year because I think there are relatively easy ways the Twins can extend this window via extensions and just having a more competent front office and development process. Ideally, Falvey and Levine will be able to build a sustainable pipeline of talent so that the Twins can pick and choose key guys they wish to extend and supplement them with young talent like Royce Lewis, Blayne Enlow, etc.. However, we know the reality of a non-big market team often means rebuilding becomes necessary to generating a potential championship level team. So the Twins need to start operating as if they have a 5 year window that starts now. Admittedly, I am more aggressive in this blueprint compared to what I believe Falvey and Levine actually will be, but I don’t think any of it is too far outside of the box.
 
Moves that already happened
 
Sign Paul Molitor to a 3-year extension: I expected this to happen and am glad that he will return. I know there was some controversy over his bunting habits and maybe even his bullpen usage but I thought those are minor discrepancies that don’t rub me in the wrong way. Overall he is very receptive of new information, appears to have the respect of the clubhouse, and has an excellent working relationship with Falvey and Levine. All are very important aspects in a modern baseball manager. Worst comes to worst, the Twins would have no problem eating a couple of million dollars if they want to go another direction before the contract expires.
 
Not Retain Neil Allen: I would assume that at least part of the holdup on the Molitor announcement was some back and forth on the future of Neil Allen. Sounded like Molitor wanted Neil Allen back, but it is hard to justify him deserving to come back based on the pitching accomplishments over the past 3 seasons. It is impossible to quantify the effect a pitching coach has on a staff but it think it is safe to say it was time for a new voice in this area for the Twins.
 
Declining LHP Glen Perkins Team Option and Paying his $700,000 Buyout: This was seen as a given and was an obvious move for the Twins. Perk made excellent progress to even pitch this season. I don’t know if this is the end of his baseball career, but based on his emotions after his last game this season, it certainly is a possibility. I hope he has a future in some capacity with the organization as he seems to be very smart and likeable. Maybe they can even bring him back on a minor league deal. Thanks for everything Perk!
 
Releasing/Outrighting C Anthony Recker: I’m a bit confused on this one. I remember I looked a couple of weeks ago and so him on the 40 man roster and thought “what the hell?”. I now see that he refused assignment to the minors and is a free agent as of October 10th. However, I also see that he was outrighted in late July so not sure if he was even on the 40 man anymore. Either way, he no longer is on the 40 man and that is a good thing.
 
Hiring Garvin Alston as Pitching Coach: I had never heard his name before the hire. I was someone that was all in on the Maddux or Hickey train. I don’t know if either of them even had interest or if Alston was the guy all along. Either way, I give the benefit of the doubt to Falvey and Levine because I think they have earned it based on the hires of Rowson and Pickler last season. They’ve also brought in John Manuel from Baseball America, Daniel Adler from the NFL, and Jeremy Zoll from the Dodgers. All of these hires are very impressive and show that the rest of the baseball community is buying into the future of the Twins. Honestly, if Terry Ryan had made the hire of Garvin Alston I would not have given him the benefit of the doubt, but Falvine have earned our patience and trust thus far.
 
Lost Bench Coach Joe Vavra to the Detroit Tigers: Gardy is getting the old band back together in Detroit!! Best of luck to Joe, but I have a feeling the Twins will be fine with out him.
 
Outrighting Niko Goodrum: I’m not sure he is a big leaguer. One of those guys that didn’t progress through the system as hoped. He was a given to be removed from the 40 man.
 
Lost Randy Rosario & Daniel Palka on Waivers: Both of these guys were borderline 40 man roster candidates and that in and of itself diminishes any trade value they might have had. It would have been nice to sneak them through waivers, but I didn’t expect that to happen. If it did, both would have been strong candidates to be lost in the Rule 5 draft anyways.
 
Lost Nik Turley on Waivers: Never has had a long term future with the club
 
Outrighting Chris Gimenez: In my initial blueprint, I had the Twins tendering him and starting the season with him on the 25 man roster. But I do get the move. Gimenez appears to be a great guy and was an above average backup catcher last season. Wish him nothing but the best and I’m sure most Twins fans feel the same.
 
Outrighting Ryan O’Rourke: O’Rourke is another player that I initially kept on my 40 man roster, although not the opening day 25 man roster. I thought that he would be kept around and given another chance as a loogie. But again, I get the move and am not all that upset, especially if the Twins feel they can add and better utilize his 40 man spot and maybe keep him on a minor league deal.
 
Hire Bench Coach Derek Shelton: I don’t know anything about him besides his background, but Falvey and Levine again will get my trust on this.
 
Future Predictions
 
(Where the Fun Starts)
 
40 Man Removals:
The Twins had 45 guys that would fall on the 40 man roster at the end of the season. This includes the guys they have on the 60 DL that will need to either be added to the 40 man, passed through waivers, or removed from the Organization all together.
 
Glen Perkins & Bartolo Colon Retire: I addressed Perkins already, but I do believe that both him and Bartolo will retire. Bartolo has said he would like to pitch, and if he does that is great, just not with the Twins. I thought it was very fun having Bartolo around and he was deserving of being in the 2017 Twins rotation. 45 year old Bartolo Colon should not sniff the field for the Twins in 2018.
 
Dillon Gee & Hector Santiago Depart Via Free Agency: Santiago is all but gone at this point. After a great April, he was awful and then was hurt. Seems like a nice enough guy, but him signing with a different teams would be best for both parties. I thought Gee pitched well for the Twins, but the Twins should look to upgrade there bullpen and hopefully fill it out with the young talent we’ve heard about for 3 years that they have coming. If they swing and miss in Free Agency, I could see them circling back on Gee, but that means a couple of things went wrong.
 
Waive / DFA / Outright the Following Players (I can’t remember what means what):
 
Buddy Boshers: Been used as a lefty because of a lack of options elsewhere in the organization. That should change with likely one free agent lefty coming in, and Tyler Jay ascending.
Michael Tonkin: It has already happened to him once this year, seems inevitable.
Phil Hughes: He is a sunk cost and I would have no problem cutting bait. No team will claim him and his contract, so why waste a 40 man spot on him? You could always keep him, put him on the DL to start the season, then add him back to the 40 man when ready. This front office is keen on roster manipulation and DFA’ing Phil Hughes would allow for the Twins to protect one extra player from the Rule 5 Draft.
 
Arbitration:
Salaries are from MLB Trade Rumors Projections**
 
3B/SS/2B Eduardo Escobar – Tender @ $4.9 M. Escobar is the easiest decision in arbitration. He has proven two separate times that he is more than capable of stepping in as an everyday player if needed. Plus, we’ve learned that he is much better defensively at third base than he was at shortstop. Sano is headed towards surgery, and Eduardo Escobar provides excellent insurance at that position and can also play shortstop and second base if needed. He is another great clubhouse guy that gives a team excellent production as a utility infielder.
 
SP Kyle Gibson – Tender @ $5.3 M. In July it looked like there was 0 chance Gibson would be back in 2018. Now, at the very least the Twins have to tender him as he has become an asset with some value. I’m perfectly fine with the team going in with him as the 5th starter or even trying him out in a bullpen role. However, my number 1 choice would be to shop Kyle Gibson and see if you can sell somewhat high on him. He has two years of arbitration left. In the second half Gibson had an ERA of 3.76, an xFIP of 3.63, and 8.22 K/9. His strong numbers were actually backed up by strong peripherals, which could mean that he has turned a corner and is just a late bloomer. I think it is more likely that he pitched a little over his head in the second half and the Twins would be wise to see what value he has.
 
SS/2B/LF – Ehire Adrianza – Tender @ $1.0 M. Adrianza was an excellent find by Falvey and Levine. Only 5 years removed from being a top 5 prospect in a strong Giants system, Adrianza is a plus defender with a lot of versatility. He also proved he can hit last season. He is a no brainer for the Twins at $1 Million and they are fortunate to have him under control for the next 3 seasons.
 
RP Ryan Pressly – Tender @ $1.6 M. Like Gibson, Pressly is another guy that saved his 2018 spot by a strong second half in 2017. Looking at the direction of the bullpen, there likely will only be room for 1 of him and Duffey, and while Duffey was unusable down the stretch, Pressly looked like he was back in peak form. I think you have to bring him back at $1.6 Million and hope his second half carries over into 2018. If it doesn’t, the Twins can always cut bait midseason at that low of a number.
 
OF/DH Robbie Grossman – Tender @ $2.4 M & Trade. Grossman might not have a spot on the 2018 Twins, but I still think they have to tender him because he is enough of an asset that they shouldn’t just let him walk away. If the Twins can find a trade match, I think that they will definitely do it, or else he should be back as a bench bat.
 
SP Trevor May – Tender @ $0.6 M. There is a lot of unknown here with May coming off of Tommy John Surgery. But all signs point to him competing for a rotation spot again and I know that Twins fans are very curious to see him get a chance in the rotation again. If he can regain his 2015 form, he should be a solid #3 or #4 starter. May isn’t really all that interesting for a tender vs. non-tender perspective as he is a lock at this low of a number, but he is very interesting from the standpoint of potential role and production come 2018.
Trades:
Trade Kennys Vargas Rights to Korea: I’ve heard rumors about this and more likely than not Vargas is not back with the Twins next season. I’m not sure exactly how this type of thing works, but Korea could be a logical path for Vargas. If he has any value on the trade market, I’d like to see the Twins explore that path as well.
 
Trade SS/2B Nick Gordon, RHP Felix Jorge, RHP Kohl Stewart, and OF LaMonte Wade to the Pirates for SP Gerrit Cole: Honestly I have no clue if this would be enough to get Gerrit Cole from Pittsburgh. I guess there is truly no way of knowing because we don’t know what the market will dictate. Sometimes I feel as if this is a lot to give up for two years of Cole, and other times I feel like it wouldn’t be enough. So I go back and forth. What I do know is that the Twins should seriously consider acquiring Gerrit Cole or Chris Archer. I would think that Nick Gordon would be an appropriate headliner for either deal, and there is enough potential in Wade, Jorge, and Stewart that I think that alone is an enticing package. The Twins will not (and should not) be offering 7 years and $150 million for Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. So the only ways they are going to truly bolster the rotation is via development and trades. This would still leave Romero and Gonsalves knocking on the doors, and give the Twins a legitimate looking rotation that could contend.
Would this be enough to get Cole? Would you do it or does it shorten the Twins window too much? Interested to hear your thoughts
 
Trade OF/DH Robbie Grossman & RHP Tyler Duffey to the Rays for LHP Resly Linares: I don’t know how much value Grossman and Duffey have on the market. I would likely tender Grossman, but shop him to see if we could get something for him. When it comes to Duffey, there is no way that both him and Pressly are back for the Twins. They would just be taking up spots that could be better occupied by guys like Reed, Jay, Burdi, etc. I think Pressly played his way into one more shot while Duffey played his way out of one. On the flip side, both Duffey and Grossman have had success as big leaguers for the Twins. Duffey was the Twins best starter during the playoff push of 2015 and Grossman has been a competent player that gets on base at a very high clip. I would guess if either is traded, it would be for young lottery type pitching. Linares is an intriguing lefty prospect in the Rays system who is not super highly regarded, but could be a lottery ticket type of guy. And hey, Robbie hit a homer in Tampa this year so maybe they like him. Yes I am grasping at straws as people rarely report on Robbie Grossman steam. Long story short, I don’t see Duffey and Grossman back, but I wouldn’t just give both of them away.
Free Agency Signings:
Resign RP Matt Belisle to a 1 year, $4 million contract: I would be fine with Matt Belisle coming back as the teams 4th or 5th reliever next season. He was very good down the stretch and apparently had a good impact behind the scenes. That being said, if someone offers him 2 years and $10 million, I tell him thank you for everything he did and good luck. But if the Twins can get him on a 1 year, $3 to 5 million deal, I think he is worth bringing back, but not a top priority.
 
Sign RP Wade Davis to a 5 year, $77 million contract: I know this would be very Un-Twins like. But I think they at least need to look into make a run at Wade Davis. They could probably get him right at $15 a year if you are willing to throw in a 5th year (Age 36 Season). I do it if it stays under 5 and $80. If the market inflates over that, I back away. Making a large investment in an elite reliever is a much better use of $15 million than continually signing the Ricky Nolasco’s and Phil Hughes of the world. Davis would not block anyone in the bullpen, and he automatically gives the Twins a lockdown anchor that they would need for the foreseeable future. If the last couple of postseasons have taught us anything, it is that a lockdown relief pitcher is a necessity now (See Chapman, Miller, Davis circa 2015, Jansen, etc.) to compete in the postseason. The Twins have a few darts like Jay, Burdi, and Reed that could hit the big leagues soon, but they are all far from a sure thing and why not add one guy who is exactly that for the next 5 years that the Twins plan to compete?
 
Sign RP Jake McGee to a 3 Year, $18 million contract: This move, or a move like this, will almost certainly happen for the Twins this offseason. They will likely find someone in the Addison Reed, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw category of 7th to 8th inning guys and give them 3 years at $5 to $8 million a year. I like McGee in part because he is a lefty, and the Twins have been extra thin there. McGee also has had a consistent track record and tends to fly under the national spotlight. This is another spot where the market could dictate who the Twins turn too, but expect a move of this ilk this no matter what else they do.
 
Sign OF/DH Jose Bautista to a 1 Year, $6 million contract: Let’s finally get Joey Bats to Target Field in a home uniform. While there is evidence that he might in fact be cooked, to me he would be worth a flier to see if he could stick at DH. Bautista solves a couple of problems for the Twins in a potential low risk, high reward deal. The Twins could stand to add a right handed bat and a DH who mashes. The worst that could happen is Bautista hits .190 in April in May and the Twins DFA him and cut their losses. However, if Bautista somehow finds his groove again, the Twins lineup could look extra deadly. Plus, Bautista won’t need to hit cleanup and he’d likely be the 6 or 7 hitter. If Bautista somehow can land a deal for $12 to $15 million, then the Twins can shut down my long-time dream. There are a lot of guys that could come in with a similar role as this like Napoli, Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda, etc.
 
40 Man Roster Additions:
1B Lewin Diaz
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Jake Reed
RHP Luke Bard
LHP Mason Melotakis
 
Gonsalves, Diaz, Littell, and Thorpe are all legitimate prospects with a lot of value that are virtual locks to be added. I think Bard, Reed, and Burdi would all get selected in the rule 5 draft. All 3 could contribute to the Twins in 2018. I’m admittedly higher on Burdi than most still are, because I think the ceiling could be ridiculous. But it would be extremely easy for a team to hide him this year as he returns from Tommy John surgery. They could just stash him on the DL, and not have to return him to the Twins. I am not giving up on Burdi until after we see him pitch in a Twins uniform. Unfortunately, that might be late 2018 at the earliest. I am a bit surprised we didn’t see both Reed and Bard in 2017 with all the relievers the Twins went through. Like Burdi, I would like to see them as major league options for 2018. Reed and Bard throw mid 90’s, while Burdi throws in the upper 90’s. All have a strong track record of missing bats (Although Reed doesn’t have the powerful K numbers of the other two). These are the types of guys the Twins will want to keep around and build a future bullpen off of. I would also add Melotakis to round out the 40 man. He should get a shot at some point, and I’m giving him the nod over Buddy Boshers for now.
 
Opening Day 25 Man Roster
Rotation
RHP Gerrit Cole - $7.5 M
RHP Jose Berrios - $0.55 M
RHP Ervin Santana - $13.5 M
RHP Kyle Gibson - $5.3M
RHP Trevor May - $0.6 M
Total: $27.45 M
 
Bullpen
RHP Wade Davis - $15.4 M
LHP Jake McGee - $6.0 M
RHP Trevor Hildenberger - $0.55 M
LHP Taylor Rogers - $0.55 M
RHP Matt Belisle - $4.0 M
RHP Ryan Pressly - $1.6 M
RHP Alan Busenitz - $0.55 M
Total: $28.65 M
 
Lineup
1 CF Byron Buxton - $0.56 M
2 1B Joe Mauer - $23.0 M
3 2B Brian Dozier - $9.0 M
4 3B Miguel Sano - $0.6 M
5 LF Eddie Rosario - $0.58 M
6 SS Jorge Polanco - $0.55 M
7 DH Jose Bautista - $6.0 M
8 RF Max Kepler - $0.55 M
9 C Jason Castro - $8.5 M
Total: $49.34 M
 
Bench
C/1B/LF Mitch Garver - $0.55 M
SS/2B/LF Ehire Adrianza - $1.0 M
3B/2B/SS Eduardo Escobar - $4.9 M
OF Zack Granite - $0.55 M
Total: $7.00 M
 
Other
SP Phil Hughes - $13.2 M
1B Byung Ho Park - $3.0 M
Total: $16.2 M
 
Total Salary for Opening Day 25 Man Roster: $128.72 M
 
I really don’t think that $129 M in payroll is some absurd unreachable number for the Twins, especially with potentially $50 M coming off next offseason. $129 M is under the average salary in baseball and would have ranked 17th in major league baseball last season. Not ridiculous or out of the question for a mid market team like the Twins, and they are not committed to big money long-term deals to anyone besides Wade Davis
 
Remaining 40 Man Roster
LHP Adalberto Mejia
LHP Stephen Gonsalves
LHP Dietrich Enns
RHP Aaron Slegers
LHP Gabriel Moya
LHP Lewis Thorpe
RHP Fernando Romero
RHP John Curtiss
RHP Nick Burdi
RHP Luke Bard
RHP Zack Littell
LHP Mason Melotakis
RHP Jake Reed
RHP J.T. Chargois
1B Lewin Diaz
 
A lot of pitchers, I know. I don’t see a ton of position players in the system that the Twins need to add to the 40 man and protect. I think at some point there will be another move to add a couple of position players early in the season.
 
Top Prospects Going into the season / 2018 Starting Level / ETA
1. SS Royce Lewis – A – 2020
2. LHP Stephen Gonsalves – AAA – 2018
3. RHP Fernando Romero – AAA – 2018
4. 1B/OF Brent Rooker – A+ – 2019
5. SS Wander Javier – Rk – 2021
6. OF Alex Kirilloff – Rk – 2020
7. RHP Blayne Enlow – Rk – 2021
8. 1B Lewin Diaz – A+ – 2019
9. LHP Tyler Jay – AAA – 2018
10. RHP Brusdar Graterol – Rk – 2021
 
 
2018 Next guys called up Pecking order / ETA
 
1. LHP Adalberto Mejia: Mejia has almost a full year of MLB experience under his belt now. At times it was clear that he was not ready for it yet, but all and all had a lot of positives in his rookie season. Under my projected roster, they wouldn’t have a roster spot for Mejia, and that is okay. There is nothing wrong with Mejia getting more seasoning in Rochester and then coming back to the big leagues at some point during the season. They second the Twins need a spot start, an injury to a pitcher occurs, or the bullpen gets overused, Mejia will be the first call up.
ETA: April
 
2. RHP John Curtiss: Saw limited action last season, but if he continues to pitch well as the closer in Rochester, he will inevitably bang on the door of the bullpen at Target Field.
ETA: April
 
3. RHP J.T. Chargois: He would be higher up if I knew what was going on with this injury he has. I hope for his sake he is able to get healthy because he certainly has the stuff to be part of the future of the Twins bullpen.
ETA: May
 
4. LHP Stephen Gonsalves: This will depend on two things:
1. How well Gonsalves pitches in AAA to begin the season. He pitched alright there to finish 2017, but one horrendous outing has skewed his end numbers.
2. What ends up happening with the Twins rotation. This will determine when an opportunity is available. There are many unknowns in the rotation, and my guess is that the front office has a process mapped out of when they want Gonsalves to be in the MLB.
I see Gonsalves pitching in the rotation by the midway point of the season.
ETA: June
 
5. RHP Jake Reed: Reed has had an excellent minor league track record outside of 2015 in Chattanooga where he struggled in his promotion. He doesn’t necessarily have as high of a ceiling as Jay and Burdi, but he might be the safer bet and deserves a chance.
ETA: June
 
6. RHP Nick Burdi: I feel like this is the third year in a row that I’ve predicted Nick Burdi will be a Twin by July. I should probably stop doing that. Admittedly, I’m not too sure on the timeline of his Tommy John Surgery. Of course he will need to throw well in the minors, and also come back from the surgery well to be in a position to be with the team this season. I could be overly optimistic on Burdi, as I’ve been known to be in the past. I could also be completely wrong about a realistic timeline in the return from Tommy John Surgery. I am very optimistic about his ceiling and potential, and just hope he can stay healthy for a couple of years to continue to develop.
ETA: July
 
7. LHP Dietrich Enns: Enns had a cup of coffee with the Twins last season in Milwaukee. It was a short start, but didn’t go horribly, just a high pitch count. He’ll be 27 in May, so it would be logical to think that this will be the year that the Twins want to see what they have with him over an extended period, and if he is worth a 40 man spot next season. I don’t have deep knowledge of his stuff, but I would think his ceiling is a #5 starter or a good 6th to 7th inning guy.
ETA: July
 
8. RHP Luke Bard: I’m very curious about Bard. I know he was a comp round A pick in 2012 and was set back by injuries. What is so impressive about him is his massive jump in strikeouts with 99 in 65.1 innings between AA and AAA this last season. Could this be that he has figured something out? I think it is worth finding out. He certainly was drafted in a high position with potential.
ETA: August
 
9. LHP Tyler Jay: He was the number 5 pick just two and a half years ago, and his stock has dipped because of his move to the bullpen. But he has a chance to be a very good reliever one day and it would be a lot of fun to see him come on strong again this year and play his way into the Twins bullpen down the stretch. He was promising in the fall league at times, but his numbers are skewed by two very bad outings. Like I have been with Burdi, I might be too optimistic by saying he has a chance to be a part of the bullpen for the stretch run in 2018, but he will be 24 in April and provided he stays healthy, should progress nicely in the minor leagues.
ETA: September
 
10. RHP Fernando Romero: Romero will be 23 and looks to have conquered AA. It will be interesting to see how he fairs in AAA this season. If he performs well, we could see him by mid summer. Out of all the Twins pitchers in the system, he probably has the most ace type stuff. I think we see him at some point in 2018, but to be safe I am saying he is a September call-up.
ETA: September
 
We will also likely see the following players at some point in 2018:
LHP Mason Melotakis, RHP Aaron Slegers, LHP Gabriel Moya, RHP Phil Hughes, and DH/1B Byung Ho Park
Moves I didn’t make but would explore:
Trade for Kelvin Herrera: In my very first blueprint, I have the Twins trading for Kelvin Herrera. However, I ended up taking it off because there is so much uncertainty there. How is his forearm? He seemed to struggle down the stretch (especially against the Twins). What would it take to get Herrera? On one hand, I would think he would require a pretty good return based on his track record over the years. But he is also a one year rental due $8 million and an injury concern. Would the Royals take a Brandon Kintzler return type prospect plus a Kennys Vargas for him? Or would they aim higher? Could they want to hold onto him to reestablish some of his value and then shop him at the deadline? It is also tough with the Royals being in the division. Overall, I am just way too uncertain about the return he would command, and it would take away $8 million of spending money for the Twins. But hey, they paid Hector Santiago $8 million last season and nobody seemed to care. Bottom line: I would like to see the Twins explore the reliever trade market this offseason, and Herrera could be a candidate if the demand isn’t too high and the Royals are fully ready to rebuild and cut money.
 
Extensions, Extensions, Extensions: I also am pretty unsure on what fair value is on these extensions, but I would explore them on many guys. I found it really interesting the extensions that Seth posted in his offseason blueprint. I remember thinking that I would do every one of those. I don’t think it is realistic that they are able to get them all done. But a doing a couple of them would be nice, specifically because they could extend there window beyond the 4 years they have of team control with there most crucial pieces. Buxton, Sano, and Berrios would be at the top of the list for me in this process. I think Buxton being the top priority would be pretty commonly agreed upon by Twins fans. Berrios is unique because he does have 5 years of team control left, so the deal would likely be for 7 or 8 years, which would be a lot of term for a young pitcher. I would still approach his representatives about it. The next tier would be Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco. Polanco also has 5 years, and I think there is a lot of uncertainty still surrounding him. I don’t think after the next 3 years he is the shortstop anymore, and he may end of being a trade chip somewhere down the road. Rosario has proven to be unreliable at times but an MVP caliber player at other times. We still aren’t sure if Kepler will be more than a platoon type player. So there is certainly risk involved, but I would consider all three of those guys because in order for the Twins to be a championship contender someday, the secondary guys will have to be solid contributors as well. In a separate category I put both Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. The Twins would be smart to explore both trading Dozier and extending him. If the Twins can get him slightly below market value for 4 more years ($60 million or so), they should. But I also feel comfortable going into the season with him, and extending him the qualifying offer next season knowing that Polanco, Javier, Lewis, (and Gordon if my trade doesn’t work out) are all going to factor into the infield equation someday. In terms of Joe Mauer, maybe they offer him a 2 year team friendly extension, but I might be more inclined to wait on that with Brent Rooker waiting in the wings and Sano’s potentially switch to first base at some point.
 
Trade Questions - Explore the Trade Value on Anyone Not Named Buxton, Sano, or Berrios
- Is there a team that will give up a ton for one year of Brian Dozier?
- Can Nick Gordon be the center of a deal to land an ace? (See above trade)
- Could either Polanco or Rosario be used to upgrade pitching, and then be replaced via free agency?
- Do you sell high on Eduardo Escobar or Kyle Gibson for bullpen help or young pitching?
- Can Robbie Grossman or Kennys Vargas net a lottery ticket pitcher? (See above trade)
- Does Ervin Santana garner a younger, higher ceiling pitcher that is major league ready?
- Are there any prospects that another team values much more than the Twins do?
 
Thank you to anyone who has gotten this far in reading. I’ve been casually working on this blueprint ever since the Twins season ended and have amended it as the early off-season moves have come in. Overall, I think the Twins have a lot of opportunities this offseason and feel more confident than ever that the front office will be active. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they will make a ton of aggressive moves, but I think they will be in the conversation for some guys that the Twins might not have sniffed around in the Terry Ryan regime. It should be a great future, and has been a heck of a turnaround from 12 months ago when I posted a blueprint essentially telling the Twins to tear the whole damn thing down.

On Monday June 8, 2015 the Houston Astros franchise changed. Really, every franchise across Major League Baseball changed as they added an influx of new talent through the First-Year player draft. Houston though, selected a shortstop from LSU with the second overall pick, and Alex Bregman set forth on a path that would greatly enhance the Astros future.
 
In this same draft, the Twins would select 6th overall. Following the selections of three collegiate players and two high-schoolers, they chose left-handed pitcher Tyler Jay. While Jay had served only as a closer at the University of Illinois, the thought was that he could be developed into a top tier starter for Minnesota. It was considered somewhat of a puzzling pick at the time, and Jay has yet to bear fruit at the big league level. That said, the jury isn't out on him yet, but that also isn't the story here.
 
The 2015 draft had plenty of talent throughout that first round. Dansby Swanson led a strong Braves system for some time, Brendan Rodgers looks the part of a game-changer for the Rockies, and Andrew Benintendi would've been the American League Rookie of the Year had Aaron Judge not existed. All of those things are true, but the focus here is on Bregman, his position, and how he ties into the Minnesota Twins.
 
Drafted as a shortstop out of Louisiana State, Bregman entered an organization that employed a 20 year-old Rookie of the Year named Carlos Correa. While Correa is a bigger shortstop at 6'4" 215 lbs, he's handled the position just fine defensively, and his .863 OPS is an incredible asset at one of baseball's most demanding positions. The Astros though weren't only rich in terms of Correa up the middle, there was a glut of options. Jose Altuve is going to hold down second base until he retires, and the combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar both looked more than capable for Houston.
 
In 2016, Bregman played in 49 games for Houston, spending just a total of 146 games on the farm. His .891 OPS at the minor league level was more than suggestive of a new challenge. At the big league level, Bregman debuted with a .791 OPS that was bolstered by strong slugging numbers. The K/BB ratio (52/15) left plenty to be desired, and both his average (.264) and OBP (.313) sagged because of it. With so much raw talent however, the belief was that 2017 could represent a breakout year.
 
After a spring training that included time with Team USA during the World Baseball Classic, Bregman was set to be the Astros every day third basemen. Recently acquired Yuli Gurriel would move to first, and the Houston infield was set. In 155 games this season, Bregman posted an .827 OPS and turned in a respectable 2:1 K/BB rate (97/55). His average and OBP jumped significantly, and he became yet another asset for the Astros. Drafted as a shortstop, he played third, short, and second base in Houston during 2017.
 
Looking at the Astros top 30 prospects as ranked by MLB.com currently, their 12th, 17th, and 24th best players are all shortstops. Despite having arguably the best infield in baseball, there's still talent behind them. This is where the Twins correlation comes into play.
 
With plenty of talk regarding the selection of Royce Lewis with the #1 overall pick this season, Minnesota now boasts shortstops with it's #1, 2, 5, and 26 best prospects per MLB.com. The idea that there is a need to figure out where the can all play becomes immediately laughable. What Bregman and the Astros have once again displayed, is that talent can slot in anywhere.
 
More often than not, shortstops and centerfielders are among the best players on a 25 man roster. Minnesota boasts an elite centerfielder in Byron Buxton, but there's plenty of room for a talent rich farm system to bear fruit at the next level. Lewis, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier, Jermaine Palacios, Luis Arraez, and Jelfry Marte all working out for the Twins would be among the best problems to have. Although there's only room for one person to play shortstop at a time, generating a 25 man roster with the best overall talent you possess is a great blueprint for success.
 
At some point, Minnesota will need to figure out how Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Nick Gordon, and Royce Lewis can all coexist. There's a second wave of talent behind them that can factor in soon enough as well. While that is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be tasked with deciphering, it's hardly a problem that the Twins would rather not have.
 
Entering the 2015 Major League Baseball draft, Alex Bregman probably had dreams of making a deep jump throw from the hole a la Derek Jeter. When he was taken by the Astros, he probably considered the current state of the infield being locked down up the middle for some time to come. On October 30th 2017 however, he's got dreams of two incredible throws to home from the hot corner, and a World Series ring well within his sights.
 
Drafting for talent will never hurt you in baseball, and both the Astros and Twins would love to have a plethora of Alex Bregman's lined up to fill a spot.
 
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With the Minnesota Twins now finished with both the regular and postseason portions of their 2017 Major League Baseball season, it's fair to look back on the year that was. This group matured, and turned around a catastrophic 2016 effort to once again give steam to a young team going places. It was a group effort, but breaking down individual performances is a must as well.
In order to provide some brevity, we'll make this a three part series. Today, grades will be handed out to the starting pitching. Monday we looked at the offense, Tuesday was the starting pitching and today concludes with the relief group. In 2017, Minnesota had 26 different pitchers make relief appearances. We're going to analyze eight, which is the amount that the Twins generally had at their disposal over the course of the year.
All of the groundwork is out of the way, let's get into it.
 
Tyler Duffey C
 
After working solely as a starter in his first two big league seasons, Duffey made 56 appearances in 2017 out of the bullpen. He pitched just over half (71.0) of his total innings from a year ago (133.0). In relief, the expectation is that the velocity plays up some, with the hope that the strikeout numbers climb as well.
 
Duffey picked up a mph (92.3) on his fastball, and just under one more K/9 (8.5) this season. Despite having a strong 3.72 FIP, he finished with a mediocre 4.94 ERA. Giving up 10.0 H/9, Duffey simply allowed too many batters to reach. He had 10 appearances allowing at least 2 runs, and didn't do much to move the needle for Minnesota. I think he fits better in the pen going forward, but the hope has to be that he trends back towards his dominating college self.
 
Taylor Rogers B
 
On the season as a whole, Rogers has some strong numbers with a few underlying issues. The 3.07 ERA is great, but he dipped down to 7.9 K/9 and allowed 3.4 BB/9. On top of that, his FIP climbed to 4.09. After being lights out in the first half, Paul Molitor continued to ride him against righties and found the youngster getting exposed.
 
Rogers hasn't really ever been great against righties, and that should be the expectation going forward. He's serviceable in that scenario, but is a true weapon against left-handed batters. If used properly, and maybe a bit less often, Rogers should be a solid middle-to-high leverage option for Minnesota.
 
Matt Belisle B
 
One April 26, Belisle made his 10th appearance of the season. Following a 5 run blowup, he owned a 7.00 ERA. From there on, he pitched another 51.1 innings to the tune of a 3.51 ERA allowing just a .646 OPS against. Minnesota installed him as the closer, and he recorded nine saves down the stretch. For the first time since 2010, Belisle cracked the 8.0 K/9 (8.1) mark.
 
While he's hardly anything flashy, and wasn't suited for the closer role, Belisle came through on the one-year deal Minnesota handed him. A free agent again going into 2018, Minnesota could look at bringing him back. He's not going to push the needle much, but Belisle showed he had enough left in the tank for his age-37 season.
 
Ryan Pressly C
 
Expected to be one of the best pieces in the Twins pen this year, Ryan Pressly stumbled a few times. The 1.5 HR/9 was a career worst, and they generally seemed to come at the worst times. Owning among the highest velocity in the Twins pen, Minnesota needs Pressly to be on his game more often going forward.
 
The strikeouts were there (9.0 K/9) and the walk numbers didn't jump off the page. Pressly experienced a couple demotions on the year, and while it wasn't a great campaign as a whole, he ended on a solid note. In 2018, Molitor will need the fireballer to return to a lockdown option in the late innings.
 
Trevor Hildenberger A
 
If you were unaware of how good Hildenberger could be, you probably weren't reading the right places. With strong minor league numbers throughout his career, he was the often left out name among the group including Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. The sidearmer isn't a high velocity guy, but it is far from just a gimmick as well.
 
Hildenberger worked his way into the late innings for Molitor and rewarded the club nicely. A 9.4 K/9 with a 1.3 BB/9 in his debut season was plenty nice to see. The 3.21 ERA has room to go down next year, and he should be a lock as a go-to guy going forward.
 
Buddy Boshers D+
 
Coming out of nowhere a year ago, Boshers did enough to hold on throughout the season. He worked virtually the same amount this season, but took steps backwards everywhere. Less strikeouts, more walks, terrible FIP, and allowed way too many homers.
 
As a lefty killer, Boshers was serviceable enough. The .655 OPS against versus lefties got him through the year, but there's other guys that can do that job, and do it better. Molitor does have a level of comfort with him it seems, but I'd be shocked if he has a role in 2018.
 
Alan Busenitz B+
 
It took a while for Molitor to take off the training wheels, but across 31.2 IP, the lone standing return for Alex Meyer turned out to be a great pickup for Minnesota. Busenitz owned a 1.99 ERA but did have some suspect areas as well. You'd like to see more than 6.5 K/9, and the 1.1 HR/9 isn't ideal either. That said, Booze throws heat, and has the looks of an impact arm in relief.
 
There shouldn't be much doubt that Busenitz needs to be penciled into the Twins 2018 Opening Day relief corps. He could begin in a middle relief role and push for more high-leverage work as the season goes on. I'd like to see him trend up a bit more across the board, but in his debut, there's a lot to like here.
 
Dillon Gee B+
 
Having spent arguably too much time in the minors prior to being promoted to the active roster, Gee was huge for Molitor and the Twins in 2017. As a reliever, he worked 33.1 IP and compiled a 1.35 ERA. The strikeout numbers were serviceable at 7.6 K/9, and he limited walks, Gee is never going to be a lockdown guy as a starter or reliever, but he was the best long reliever Minnesota has had in quite some time.
 
Going into next season, the Twins should be adding a handful of impact relief arms. Guys that can push velocity and generate strikeouts is a must for this group. Having Gee back there to pick up the pieces after short starts is a good decision though, and if he can replicate his 2017, that's a really nice asset.
 
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With the Minnesota Twins now finished with both the regular and postseason portions of their 2017 Major League Baseball season, it's fair to look back on the year that was. This group matured, and turned around a catastrophic 2016 effort to once again give steam to a young team going places. It was a group effort, but breaking down individual performances is a must as well.
 
In order to provide some brevity, we'll make this a three part series. Today, grades will be handed out to the starting pitching. Monday we looked at the offense, and Wednesday will conclude with the relief group. While the Twins got starts from a ridiculous amount of different arms (16), this will focus on the five that turned in the most work.
All of the groundwork is out of the way, let's get into it.
 
Ervin Santana A
 
Over the course of the year, there wasn't much more of a steadying presence on the mound than that of Ervin Santana. He started strong out of the gates, and finished well down the stretch. There was a bit of a lull in the middle, but the final numbers resulted in a 3.28 ERA along with a 7.1 K/9 and a 2.6 BB/9.
 
Santana wasn't flashy, and he's never been as much, but his repertoire allowed for consistent production. For the bulk of the year, his slider had good bite, and he was able to keep opposing hitters at bay. Homers once again were an issue for him, but there's little reason not to feel good about Santana taking the mound for another 30-plus starts with Minnesota in 2018.
 
Kyle Gibson C+
 
More than any other starter for the Twins, it was a tale of two seasons for Gibson. He was demoted to Triple-A Rochester, and cast off for Jaime Garcia at one point. Through his first 16 starts of 2017, he owned a terrible 6.31 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters a .934 OPS off of him. After making some tweaks, mid-July began a new narrative. Over his final 13 starts, Gibson owned a 3.76 ERA and allowed just a .701 OPS to opposing hitters.
 
For years, Twins fans (as well as the front office) have hoped Gibson would round out into the first round selection he was taken as. A sinkerballer with the ability to keep the ball in the yard, the hope was that Gibson would be a ground ball machine that doesn't give up much of anything. That hasn't been the case thus far, but the second half of 2017 provides plenty of reason for excitement. Gibson will be tendered a new deal this offseason, and hoping he can be a rotation fixture in 2018 is a good place to be.
 
Jose Berrios B+
 
With Berrios, the Twins saw growth but also the volatility of young arms. Posting a 3.89 ERA on the year, the Puerto Rican native has to feel good about how his season went. With an 8.6 K/9, he flashed the ability to strike out plenty of big league hitters. There were a lot of high points, and only a few clunkers mixed in.
 
Coming off a tough showing his rookie year, Berrios established himself a a big league difference maker this season. Going into 2018, it's a certainty that he's a lock for the Minnesota rotation, and it will be interesting to watch him push his ceiling. He has flashed true ace ability, and Minnesota desperately needs that trend to continue. Another step forward for Berrios a year from now, could have him entering some end of season award discussions.
 
Adalberto Mejia C
 
When acquired from the Giants in exchange for Eduardo Nunez, the Twins had to be thrilled getting a capable big league arm. Mejia had began to appear on top 100 prospect lists, and he looked the part of a back-end big league starter. Across 21 outings this season, a 4.50 ERA was indicative of being virtually who he was billed to be.
 
Mejia isn't flashy by any means, and while he can strike batters out (7.8 K/9), he also needs to work on limiting free passes (4.0 BB/9). Getting deep in games was a struggle for him this season, and that's going to need to be a focus going into 2018. Pitch economy, as well as command are areas for growth. He'll be fighting among a group of options to round out the rotation a year from now.
 
Bartolo Colon C-
 
Although the long time veteran's 5.18 ERA is anything but exciting on paper, it was such a necessary addition for Minnesota. Picked up from Atlanta after a dismal start to the year, Colon provided a leverl of certainty for the Twins. He found a better defense to help him out, and continued to be a command artist in his elder years (1.7 BB/9).
 
It sounds like Colon wants to pitch again next season at age 45. He's survived this long simply by throwing strikes, and that's something the Twins needed from a fifth guy when he stepped in. I can't imagine a scenario in which he's back with the organization to start next season, but he showed that he still has a little more to give, and he helped the Twins down the stretch. It was rarely pretty, but given what the other 11 guys who made starts for Paul Molitor's squad this year did, it was relatively effective.
 
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With the Minnesota Twins now finished with both the regular and postseason portions of their 2017 Major League Baseball season, it's fair to look back on the year that was. This group matured, and turned around a catastrophic 2016 effort to once again give steam to a young team going places. It was a group effort, but breaking down individual performances is a must as well.
 
In order to provide some brevity, we'll make this a three part series. Today, grades will be handed out to the starting lineup. Tuesday will focus on the starting pitching, and Wednesday will conclude with the relief group. While there were additional efforts from secondary players, bench and rotational players will be skipped over for this exercise.
All of the groundwork is out of the way, let's get into it.
 
Catcher- Jason Castro C+
 
Castro turned in a .242/.333/.388 line for the Twins in the first of a three-year deal signed this offseason. Brought in mainly as a defensive addition, it's hard to suggest the new backstop was anything but an addition. Coming off a terrible tandem in Kurt Suzuki and Juan Centeno, Castro provided certainty over 110 games for Minnesota. His .720 OPS was passable, and he launched double-digit (10) HRs for the fifth straight season.
 
Most importantly for Minnesota however, was how valuable Castro was behind the dish. Ranked 11th (of 110) in framing runs by Baseball Prospectus, he was a massive improvement from the Suzuki a year ago (92nd of 104). Castro also posted a 26% caught stealing rate (in line with a league-wide 27%). On his own, he was a huge boost for the organization. Given his work with the pitching staff, it's hard to argue that he didn't directly influence a group that saw a good deal more success as well.
 
First Base- Joe Mauer A+
 
Now in his fourth season playing first base, Mauer turned in his greatest campaign at the new position. He has to be considered the front runner for the AL Gold Glove as he ranks near the top in all defensive categories. When on the diamond, both infield teammates as well as pitchers had to know they had as much of a sure thing at first base as possible.
 
At the plate, Mauer flashed ability that made him look like a glimmer of the player he used to be. With a .305/.384/.417 slash line, he posted an .800-plus OPS for the first time since 2013. He batted .300 again for the first time since that same year, and if there was increasing doubt as to his Hall of Fame chances, he brought them to a screeching halt. The local kid looked all Hometown Hero once again.
 
Second Base- Brian Dozier A
 
Coming off a season in which trade rumors ran rampant, and thoughts of regression appeared more certain than not, Dozier did his thing once again. Despite a traditional slower start, his bat heated up as they calendar did as well. After the All-Star break, Dozier slashed .301/.391/.587 with 21 homers. He finished the year with 34 long balls, and looks primed for an extension this winter.
 
Dozier posted a second consecutive season with an fWAR north of 4.5, and has become the best second basemen in baseball not named Jose Altuve. Minnesota could be kicking themselves for not extending him into free agency sooner, but Dozier appears like a player that should be at the core of a team making the playoffs consistently for the next few years to come.
 
Shorstop- Jorge Polanco B+
 
The hope was that Polanco could step in, arguably out of position, and solidify what has been a massive hole for the Twins in recent years. While he was able to accomplish that over the course of the 162 game season, it wasn't without some hiccups along the way. Despite a mid season slump coinciding with the loss of his grandfather, Polanco put up a .256/.313/.410 slash line. From August 2nd through the end of the year, Minnesota's shortstop hit .316/.377/.553 and sent 10 balls over the fence.
 
At short, while still being below average, Polanco was hardly a deficiency. Owning just a -1 DRS across 1,119 innings, he made massive strides against a -8 DRS mark in 406 innings a year ago. His range also remained limited, but again, not nearly as much as the year prior. Arm strength will always be an issue for Polanco, but it appears the offseason work he put in did a great deal to solidify him in a starting role. For now, Polanco is hardly a problem Minnesota needs to look into.
 
Third Base- Miguel Sano B
 
Arguably no player had a more frustrating season for the Twins than Miguel Sano. That's not to say he struggled or had a bad year, but when he got down, he never really was afforded the opportunity to get back up. Coming off a significant dip in production a year ago (.781 OPS in 16, .961 OPS in 15), Sano was needing to get back to his rookie numbers. The power looked there all season long, and despite playing in just 114 games, he hit 28 homers. The strikeout numbers climbed as well though, and play at third base remained average at best.
 
For the early portion of the year, Sano had to be the team's MVP. He was an offensive catalyst, and the power was only overshadowed, among young hitters, by the likes of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. With 173 strikeouts and just 54 walks, he was on the same record breaking trail from a year prior. The average was higher at .264, but plenty of production had been left on the table as the rookie season plate discipline wasn't there. Sano can stick at third, I think shedding some pounds can help him. He's an offensive threat, but honing it in some is a must as well.
 
Left Field- Eddie Rosario B
 
At the plate, it was Rosario who emerged for the Twins. With a .290/.328/.507 slash line, he easily put up the best numbers of his career. With 27 homers, he threatened for the team lead, and a career best 37.6% chase rate no doubt helped to paint a new picture. He also swung through a career low 11.9% of strikes, and enjoyed a career best 78.3% contact rate. Being just a bit more calculated at the plate paid big dividends for the Twins polarizing outfielder.
 
On defense, things continue to sag. After being incredibly valuable his rookie season, Rosario has been on a negative trend ever since. With -10 DRS posted across 1,257 innings this season, he cost the time in left field. There were plenty of errant or miscalculated throws, and his routes could use some real work. Rosario is an athlete with a big arm, but at times, he tries to survive on those realities alone.
 
Center Field- Byron Buxton B
 
At Twins Daily, I voted Buxton as my team MVP. It may be hard to wrap your head around this grade given that context, but let me explain. Buxton started out dismally at the plate, and that was well documented. He did however, completely revamp his swing at the big league level. While the final result was just a .728 OPS, he actually had an .804 OPS from Jun 2nd on. At the plate, Buxton turned it on when it mattered most, and despite the slow start, he became among the Twins most valuable hitters down the stretch.
 
With Buxton, offense is never going to overshadow just how good he is in the field though. In center, he's a lock for the AL Gold Glove, and was worth an MLB best 24 DRS. His range was consistently apparent, and it was on the back of Buxton that many Twins pitchers found themselves surviving. He's an asset in every sense of the word with the glove, and that along makes him an All Star caliber player. If the offense stays throughout a full season, the rest of the league will be put on notice.
 
Left Field- Max Kepler C-
 
If there was one youngster looking to take a step forward, but failed to do so, it was easily Kepler. After a .734 OPS and some breakout notions last season, the hope was that Kepler would leap forward this year. When the dust settled however, he owned just a .737 OPS and replicated many of the same statistics he put up a season ago.
 
Arguably the most frustrating development for Kepler this season was his struggles against left-handed pitching. Despite being able to hold his own on the farm, Paul Molitor went virtually full platoon with Kepler. He was sat regularly down the stretch, and lesser bats, as well as gloves, saw playing time in his place. Going forward, Kepler is going to need to tighten his approach at the plate as a whole, and the Twins can be hopeful that it's 2018 where Kepler makes his presence known.
 
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As the summer draws to a close, the Major League Baseball season is again set to throw us a roster shakeup. With teams having their rosters expand from 25 players to 40, there will be a host of additions to big league clubs across the sport. For a team like the Twins in the midst of a Postseason race, each call up could prove integral when it comes to squeaking out an extra win or two. The question is, who's on their way up?
 
To refresh, virtually the only stipulation for September roster expansion is that any player called up must be on the team's 40 man roster. While clubs are being given an additional 15 roster spots, they obviously will not have that many openings on their 40 man. For example, the Twins currently have a full 40 man roster, so anyone promoted that's not currently on it, would make another move necessary.
 
First, let's take a look at how the Twins can clear some space. There's not a ton of options for the club, but the most likely would be transferring players on the 10-day DL to the 60-day. The problem for Minnesota is that there isn't a ton of options.
 
Both Adalberto Mejia and Dietrich Enns could be shifted to the longer DL if the club doesn't expect them back. J.T. Chargois has had virtually a lost season, but he's not on the MLB DL, so there's no way to clear a spot involving him outside of a DFA, which isn't logical. The Twins could clear space by DFA'ing players like Buddy Boshers or Hector Santiago, but none of those instances seem entirely likely either. So from a top down view, the Twins are looking at maybe one or two spots on the 40 man being open.
 
To fill those spots, I'd wager Jake Reed and Stephen Gonsalves appear the most likely. The Rochester Red Wings are currently battling for a playoff spot, and with the likelihood that both would be used out of the pen for Minnesota, I can't imagine a promotion prior to the Triple-A season coming to an end. Reed can definitely help the big club in relief, and should've been up a long time ago if not for an injury to start the year. Gonsalves is going to be a difference maker in the coming years, and while his value is as a starter, getting his feet wet in 2017 is hardly a bad thing.
 
Looking at what's currently available on the 40 man roster, there seems to be a few more candidates worthy of a promotion. Boshers seems much more certain to rejoin the big club than to be DFA'd, and both Aaron Slegers and Nik Turley should join him. Slegers could be a spot starter down the stretch, while Turley profiles well in relief. Despite being on the 40 man and previously making the jump, I'm not sure there's much allure to bringing either Felix Jorge or Randy Rosario back up. Like Gonsalves, Fernando Romero is an impact starter for the Twins future, but with a workload well above previous seasons, and slowing of late, I'd just call his season quits.
 
From a position player perspective, there's only two players not on the active roster that are possibilities. Engelb Vielma is a glove first shortstop in the same vein as Ehire Adrianza. With Adrianza already used sparingly, and Vielma hitting just .212 in 84 Triple-A games, I can't imagine it worthwhile to ask him to sit on the Twins bench. From a bat perspective, Daniel Palka makes some sense. He's an outfielder by trade, but survives as a slugging hitter. He's a lefty, not the righty that the Twins need, but he owns a .272/.324/.428 slash line in 78 games for Rochester this year. He's a power threat, and adding another pinch hitter for the final month is hardly a big issue.
 
The way I see it, Minnesota has very little space to create room, and they don't have a ton of candidates needing a call up either. I think we see more players return to the big league club, than we see fresh faces. Also, despite the big league club taking precedence, I'd be far from shocked if we don't see a few players hold out at Triple-A until and Postseason run is concluded.
 
If I had to handicap things right now, here's who I see coming up, and the likelihood that they do:
 
Buddy Boshers 100%
Nik Turley 100%
Aaron Slegers 80%
Jake Reed 60%
Stephen Gonsalves 55%
Daniel Palka 50%

The Minnesota Twins are certainly still in the thick of things in the Wild Card race, but it’s never too early to look to the offseason to get a feel for what the team might do to improve. In fact, there could be a lot of moves as the team looks to reframe itself in the images of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, as we’ve already seen a personnel purge in the scouting and analytics departments with more to come.
 

 
That could even include at the top, with manager Paul Molitor working on the last year of his deal without an extension in hand. But we aren’t here to speculate on Molitor’s future, and we also won’t include the potential for any trades. Those things are just too complicated and intricate to muddle in, and we’re just here to have a little fun.
 
Let’s first take a look at the shell of who is likely to return to the Twins next year, and take a peak at some of the open roster spots to see where we’ll be filling players in.
 
Starting Lineup

C - Jason Castro
1B - Joe Mauer
2B - Brian Dozier
3B - Miguel Sano
SS - Jorge Polanco
LF - Eddie Rosario
CF - Byron Buxton
RF - Max Kepler
DH - OPEN

In other words, really only the spot at designated hitter is open. Robbie Grossman has done a respectable job (101 wRC+), but is better suited as a bench bat who can help in the corners or late in games as a pinch-hitter when getting a batter on base is a necessity. This has the potential to be a really, really good offense. In theory, you could sign Zack Cozart to play shortstop, but I’d be wary of the contract-year breakout with him.
 
DH Addition Candidates
 
Carlos Santana, Indians
 
Santana would provide a huge lift to the Twins as a leadoff hitter. He takes a ton of walks and still has plenty of pop to spare, and can still be mixed in at first base as well. Getting on base in front of Dozier and friends 220-250 times per year could result in a ton of runs scored, and it just gives the lineup more depth overall. He has no platoon split to speak of, which means he can hit lefties (.813 career OPS) which is something this team desperately needs. He also has the Falvey familiarity factor. Don’t sleep on this connection. He’ll be 32 in April, but if he’ll sign a four-year deal, do it. The qualifying offer price for a free agent like Santana won’t be that steep. Best as yours truly can understand, it would only cost the Twins a third-round pick to sign Santana if the Indians give him a qualifying offer -- something they’ll almost certainly do.
 
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Coming off a 103 loss campaign a season ago, there was plenty of room for tempered expectations in 2017. While many feared another lackluster season, the expectation always should have been a generous step forward. Given the uncertainty of youth, a three year span with a boom, buster, and normalization felt appropriate to surmise. As we go down the stretch in 2017 however, the Twins have become much more.
 
Going into 2017, I felt pretty confident that something in the upper 70's seemed like a realistic win total for Minnesota. A .500 record seemed doable, if not a best case scenario, but a certainty to bank on was the floor not once again dropping out. Fast forward to late August and the hometown nine is within striking distance of the division, and pacing a tight knit group for the second Wild Card spot. The results have no doubt been a culmination of 120 plus games of solid baseball, but right now, something different is taking place.
 
Looking ahead, the 2018 Twins appear to be a team that should target the Postseason or bust. With the maturation of the youth, integration of the veterans, and the landscape of their division, it's a perfect storm. That all held relatively true regardless of what took place this season. Over the past few weeks however, it's been a tying of the old guard, and the new, that has really positioned Minnesota to crack a smile.
 
As of this writing, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario are all pacing Minnesota at the same time. Hot streaks tend to come and go, but each of the aforementioned names have seen a consistent and sustained level of success over a period of weeks. While it's great on an individual basis, it's also explained why the Twins have been so able to fight off regression. It's fair to wonder whether one may cool off, but with the chips stacked as five players go off at the same time, there's definitely some room for error.
 
Each player could have an entire post dedicated to their surge, but from a snapshot view, here's what we're looking at from the names above since the month of August kicked off:
Brian Dozier .333/.429/.702 12 XBH 9 HR
Joe Mauer .303/.379/.395 5 XBH 1 HR
Jorge Polanco .382/.417/.647 10 XBH 3 HR
Byron Buxton .316/.349/.566 9 XBH 4 HR
Eddie Rosario .346/.375/.679 13 XBH 7 HR

That group above accounts for over half of the Twins nightly lineup. Given the fact that their combined average is well north of .300, and they have produced a glut of extra base hits, it's no wonder why the Minnesota offense is clicking. There's some like Rosario and Buxton that have sustained it longer than others, but the goal is to try and continue to increase the sample size for each of the parties involved.
 
Quite possibly the best news about the group currently putting the Twins ahead on a nightly basis, are the names it doesn't include. Miguel Sano has been scuffling since the All Star Break (and is currently on the DL), while Max Kepler has yet to really find a groove in 2017. In it's entirety, that full contingent of seven players remain with Minnesota not only for this year, but at least the one that lies ahead as well.
 
It'd be foolish to suggest that Minnesota is a World Series contender in its current state. As we've seen as 2017 has drawn on though, this team is ready to make some waves. The offseason ahead provides some real opportunity to supplement a strong nucleus, and continuing to get production from a blend of player types will have a Derek Falvey and Thad Levine squad as must watch entertainment.
 
At some point in the not so distant future, it's a good bet there will be some cooling off. The hope would be that opponents fall victim to the same situation. Given the lay of the land however, the Twins have the deck stacked in their favor right now, and that's not a bad situation to be in at all.
 
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The 40-man roster churn for the Minnesota Twins continued on Thursday, as the team shipped catcher John Ryan Murphy to the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-handed reliever Gabriel Moya. Both teams confirmed the move via press releases.
 
Moya will head to Double-A Chattanooga to get his Twins career underway, the team announced. Moya will be very familiar with the league, as he was a Southern League All-Star this season.
 
Murphy was the odd man out behind the plate as the Twins had amassed five catchers on the 40-man roster with the Jaime Garcia trade earlier in the week, which brought Anthony Recker into the mix. Recker was initially assigned to Double-A Chattanooga, but it appears likely that will change with this move.
 
Murphy came over in a deal following the 2015 season from the Yankees, as outfielder Aaron Hicks was sent to New York in return. But while Hicks has blossomed into a stellar everyday player for the Yankees this season — current injury notwithstanding — Murphy struggled to find his footing with the Twins and was behind the 8-ball almost immediately. Murphy hit just .075/.119/.100 over his first 44 plate appearances last season before being sent to Triple-A Rochester.
 
Things did not improve much down on the farm, as Murphy inexplicably hit just .236/.286/.323 in 83 games with the Red Wings before returning for the stretch run to back up Kurt Suzuki in the major leagues last season. While the Twins were hoping to catch Murphy on the upswing after he’d hit .277/.327/.406 in 2015 with the Yankees, that simply was not the case.
 
Murphy had hit just .222/.298/.330 with the Red Wings this season as he and Mitch Garver — one of the Twins’ better hitting prospects who is actually older than Murphy — have shared time behind the plate this season.
 
While Murphy has struggled at the plate, he’s done fine work behind it. According to Baseball Prospectus, Murphy has been the top framing catcher in Triple-A this season, providing the Red Wings with 18.8 fielding runs above average. Only three catchers are above 10 runs this year in the minor leagues. The other two are Cardinals prospect Carson Kelly (10.2) and Eddy Rodriguez (15.3), who spent time this spring in Twins camp.
 
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Way back in October 2016, I ranked the Twins Top 15 prospects (found here). While there wasn't a number one prospect in all of baseball like Byron Buxton, there's still a lot to like in the organization from top to bottom. Now with the 2017 Major League Baseball draft behind us, and the minor league slate half over, it's time to reassess the group as a whole.
 
Going from 15 to 1, the group has seen some movement, and there's been some really strong performances thus far in 2017. We could see a few of these names graduate from the group yet this year, and the Twins could find help internally from the farm. With that said, here we go:
 
15. Mitch Garver C
 
Garver just missed out on this list prior to 2017, but has continued to command attention. I opined there was some steam to him making the club out of spring training, and he's probably next in line behind John Ryan Murphy. Garver owns an .808 OPS at Triple-A Rochester in 40 G this season, and has some positional flexibility being able to play 1B as well. He has strong caught stealing numbers, and can defend behind the plate at an above average level. There's reason to believe that Garver should finish the season in Minnesota.
 
14. Daniel Palka OF
 
For a time Palka looked like he could push for an early promotion to the big leagues in 2017. His production dipped a bit, and now he's on the DL with a .768 OPS. Power is always going to be his calling card, and he was off to a nice start with eight homers through his first 41 games. The strikeout numbers are only going to rise at the big league level, so he'll have to do more work to draw a consistent amount of walks.
 
13. Lewis Thorpe SP
 
Getting back on the mound after missing the past two seasons, Thorpe has picked up where he left off. Through his first four starts at Fort Myers, he owns a 2.12 ERA and a 12.7 K/9 to go with a 2.6 BB/9. He looked good at Cedar Rapids prior to his Tommy John surgery, and it seems he's rebounded well. The Twins will no doubt have the 21 year old on an innings limit (and he's never thrown more than 71.2 IP in a season), so he'll likely end 2017 at High-A.
 
12. Jake Reed RP
 
Had he stayed healthy out of the gate, Reed would probably be with the Twins already. He suffered an injury on the final day of spring training, and lost a few months of work. Now back healthy, he made quick work of a brief return to Double-A and is back at Triple-A Rochester. Reed has an electric fastball, and solid movement on his pitches. He's a big league reliever with the ability to move towards the back end of the bullpen.
 
11. Wander Javier SS
 
Yet to play in 2017, Javier is likely destined for the GCL. He missed a good amount of time in the Dominican Summer League last year, but remains an incredible physical specimen. Watching him in Fort Myers this spring, I have doubts as to whether he can stick at short simply because of his growth. He's bulked up a good amount, and the power potential already flashes big time. The Twins have no shortage of shortstop prospects, but Javier is among the best of them.
 
10. Tyler Jay RP
 
Unfortunately for the former 6th overall pick, health hasn't been something easy to come by. Jay was slated to work solely as a reliever this year, and should be at Triple-A by now at worst. He's on the DL again however, and pitched just two innings at Double-A prior to being shelved. If he can stay on the field, the velocity and stuff play out of the pen, but he needs to get a clean bill of health first.
 
9. Blayne Enlow SP
 
Taken with the Twins pick at 76th overall in the 2017 MLB draft, Enlow is a prep pitcher with an arrow pointing straight up. He's got a strong fastball that can sit mid-90's, and a host of different outlets called his curveball among the best in the draft. Enlow should have top of the rotation starter potential for the Twins, and ends up being a great value pick for them.
 
8. Travis Blankenhorn 3B
 
Since being selected in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft, all Blankenhorn has done is rise in the Twins prospect ranks. He owns an .804 OPS in 66 games with Cedar Rapids this year, and the power has started to play. With 12 doubles and eight homers already, he's a corner infielder that can drive the ball out of the park. Blankenhorn could push for a late season promotion to the Miracle, and at just 20 years old, he's got plenty of developing left to do.
 
7. Felix Jorge SP
 
At the time of this writing, we've already had at least one opportunity where the Twins could've called upon Jorge. Realistically, he probably could use a stop at Triple-A, but making the jump from Chattanooga isn't out of the question. He owns a 3.35 ERA across 13 starts this season, and has compiled a 6.2 K/9 with a 2.5 BB/9. Jorge doesn't have much in the form of strikeout stuff, and he's not going to blow big league hitters away, but he can pitch, and doesn't miss his spots. Expecting him to get a few turns with Minnesota this year is a good bet.
 
6. Brent Rooker OF/1B
 
With their first comp pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, the Twins took the SEC Triple Crown winner from Mississippi State. Rooker can hit, and whether or not he can hit at the professional level will determine his fate. 23 already, Minnesota will move him aggressively. He'll be at Fort Myers for the bulk of 2017, and could push for time with the Twins as early as 2018. Finding him a position, either in the corner outfield or at first, remains a question but the bat should be expected to play. The Twins will likely go with a sink or swim approach to Rooker and have a good idea of what they've got quickly, but I believe there's something special here.
 
5. Alex Kirilloff OF
 
The 2016 first round pick is missing the season due to Tommy John surgery. After suffering the injury late in the 2016 season and being shut down, it's not ideal how long it took for Minnesota to address the root of the problem. Regardless, Kirilloff has time on his side, and he'll have the success of a strong pro debut in his back pocket. Look for him to make an impact in the lower levels of the farm a year from now.
 
4. Fernando Romero SP
 
Quite possibly the Twins lone ace prospect, Romero is one of the most intriguing pitchers in all of minor league baseball. He can push his fastball near triple digits, and the command is something he's beginning to hone in on. With a 3.27 ERA through his first 13 starts for Double-A Chattanooga, he's another guy that the Twins could be looking to bump up a level sooner rather than later.
 
3. Stephen Gonsalves SP
 
After getting a late start to the year due to injury, Gonsalves has come out of the gate firing. In six starts, he's posted a solid 3.18 ERA, but more impressive is his 11.1 K/9 and the 2.1 BB/9. Gonsalves had a few bouts of command issues during his initial call to Double-A in 2016, but those appear to be all but behind him. While he may not have the upper 90's fastball, his repertoire puts him in the conversation for a very nice rotation piece in the years to come.
 
2. Royce Lewis SS
 
If I was to include Lewis on this list prior to 2017, he'd likely have been number one. He just misses out on the top spot now, but the top pick in the 2017 MLB Draft should make Twins fans salivate. He can hit, hit for power, and field well above average at shortstop. The tools are all there for a star in the making, and while he's no less than four years away from the Twins, he'll be one of the top prospects in baseball for the majority of that time.
 
1. Nick Gordon SS
 
There's no Twins prospect that has been more impressive than Gordon in 2017. In his first 64 games at the Double-A Level, he owns an .880 OPS and is batting .315. Gordon has clubbed six homers, doubling his previous career season high, and he's already just two doubles away (21) from tying that career high as well. For someone that was noted as a glove first prospect when he was drafted, he's bounced between second and short, now settling back in at shortstop, and all he has done is rake. I'd still like to see him cut down on the errors, but Gordon is continuing to look more and more like a potential All Star.
 
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Three days and 41 selections later, the Minnesota Twins have concluded their 2017 Major League Baseball draft. Owning the first pick, and being the first team to do so while leading their division since they were in the same spot in 2001, the Twins found themselves in a good spot. Now with the war room disassembled and the picks made, it's hard not to be excited about what Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did in their first crack from the director's chair.
 
Starting off with the first overall pick, the front office had a clear plan, and it appears they executed it. I opined multiple times on Twitter that the Twins wouldn't spend over $7m regardless of who they took at 1/1. With Royce Lewis, they get an elite athlete that could stick at short, and his the upside of a big league All Star for years to come. In taking him above projection, Minnesota banked slot value to disperse to a few other picks.
 
Although the Twins would never suggest that it was McKay, Greene, or Wright they preferred over Lewis, there's plenty of reason to believe the prep shortstop was their plan all along. His bat has plus-plus potential, and he offers versatility in being able to play up the middle of the diamond, regardless of it being in center or at short. The makeup is incredible, and while he may not have drawn the nod from many mocks, the tools are indicative of a guy with an arrow pointing straight up.
 
Following up Lewis with another slam dunk pick, I'm a huge fan of what the Twins did in taking Brent Rooker. After having the privilege to get to know him a bit better, the mentality matches the output. He not only puts up incredible numbers with his bat, but he puts in the work and understanding to have the know-how to keep it going.
 
Sure, Rooker is going to have to settle into a position (most likely LF or 1B), and he's a bit older at 23. Neither of those things should deter Twins fans though when the guy does what he does at the plate. I'd imagine he'll be assigned to Cedar Rapids from the get go, and we could see him at Target Field sometime in late-2018. Rooker should immediately slot into the Twins top 5 or 6 prospects, and his bat alone makes him a high value pick just outside of the first round.
 
I won't pretend to know a ton about Canadian right-hander Landon Leach, but I think he has the potential to be a nice arm for the Twins. He drew steam late in the draft process, and sounds like his stuff has the ability to tick upwards while already being relatively strong with command. Touching 95 now as a prep arm, that's a number that should only increase as he continues to grow into his frame.
 
Thanks to the plan working out in regards to Lewis and positioning, Minnesota found themselves able to select Blayne Enlow and pay him over slot to turn away from a commitment to LSU. He's arguably one of the top arms in the draft, and even higher among those only in the prep ranks. Yes, it'll take time for him to rise through the system, but he gives the Twins another potential top-of-the-rotation type to add to the organization. MLB.com called Enlow's curveball the best in the draft, and he has a fastball that can get big league hitters out.
 
Looking at the rest of the draft from a more top down view, I really like the Andrew Bechtold pick in Round 5. He's a strong third basemen that can absolutely hit, and he comes from a Chipola program that is top notch. More value was found in the 6th Round when Minnesota grabbed Ricardo De La Torre. He didn't have a good year, and fell, but getting a one-time first round potential pick this late is great.
 
The group as a whole did have some surprises. I'm not too terribly shocked that the Twins went college heavy, and where they did go with prep players, the ceiling remains very high. Just three left handed pitchers was a bit low for my liking, but the organization may not have had too many on their radar. I also thought waiting until the 17th round to grab the first catcher was somewhat of a shock, but this draft didn't have a ton of great options there either.
 
All in all, the Twins should walk away from this class feeling accomplished. Of their first seven or so selections, three or four should slot in among their top 10 prospects in the organization. I'd imagine all will have a place in the top 20, and Royce Lewis immediately becomes the Twins second best prospect for me. I plan on revisiting the top 15 prospect list in the coming weeks, but this club added value back into an organization that needed it.
 
Right now, it doesn't matter how many young shortstops the Twins have. It doesn't matter how few pitchers they can turn to. Honestly, the biggest thing that needed to happen in the draft, was Minnesota rejuvenate the farm, and they did that. Adding young, high ceiling, talent always has to be the goal. Figuring out how to utilize it, whether that being through trades or otherwise, can always come later. In their first go round, both Falvey and Levine should feel good about what took place.
 
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http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/56/2561f1eb-f62a-58b8-85b3-1afa61473e6c/58dfc4e861e5d.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C800
Tanner Houck - Photo courtesy of Mizzou Athletics
 
Alex Faedo – rhp – Florida
Faedo entered the year as a potential #1 pick in the draft, but has fallen off considerably in his junior year. His plus slider and low nineties fastball are still good enough to get him drafted in the middle of the first round.
 
Griffin Canning – rhp – UCLA
Canning is a potential fast mover who will fit into the back of a big league rotation. He does not have overpowering stuff, but is polished enough that he will go in the back of the first round.
 
David Peterson – lhp – Oregon
Peterson is a lefty with a low nineties fastball and average slider who has pitched himself up draft boards this spring. Despite his dominant year for the Ducks, his lack of a great repertoire will cause him to become a bottom of the rotation pitcher or head to the bullpen.
 
Tanner Houck – rhp – Missouri
Houck was under consideration by the Twins as a potential #1 pick, but his stock has fallen and he is no longer in consideration to be one of the top ten picks. The big righty could end up being drafted by the Twins, albeit at the 35th pick.
 
Seth Romero – lhp – Houston
Romero has had an interesting spring. He got off to an exceptional start with Houston, but ended up getting suspended and then dropped from the team. There is uncertainty on where he will be drafted, but the Twins are unlikely to select him.
 
Alex Lange – rhp – LSU
Lange profiles as a late first round pick, where his mid-nineties fastball and plus curve will allow him to move quickly through an organization.
 
Nate Pearson – rhp – Central Florida JC
Pearson has electric stuff, but will be moved to the bullpen by the team that drafts him.
 
Brendon Little – lhp – State JC of Florida, Manatee – Sarasota
Little has a mid-nineties fastball and above average curve, but his changeup and control are below average. He will likely end up in a bullpen.
 
Dan Tillo – lhp – Iowa Wester CC
Tillo left Kentucky after one year, and is now committed to Arkansas. There is little chance he will ever pitch in the SEC again, due to being one of the top lefties available in the draft.
 
Mike Baumann – rhp – Jacksonville
Baumann played high school baseball for one of the top programs in the state of Minnesota, and was drafted by the Twins in the 34th round of the 2014 draft. I have heard comparisons to Lance Lynn, but teams are unsure if they want him to start or pitch out of the bullpen.

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png
#1 Kyle Wright – rhp – Vanderbilt
#2 J.B. Bukauskas – rhp – North Carolina
#3 MacKenzie Gore – lhp – North Carolina High School
#4 Pavin Smith – 1b – Virginia
#5 Austin Beck – of – North Carolina High School
#6 Brendan McKay – lhp – Louisville
#7 Hunter Greene – rhp – California High School
#8 Sam Carlson – rhp – Minnesota High School
#9 Jake Burger – 1b – Missouri State
#10 Alex Faedo – rhp – Florida
#11 Royce Lewis – of – California High School
#12 Adam Haseley – of – Virginia
#13 Evan White – 1b – Kentucky
#14 Nick Pratto – 1b – California High School
#15 D.L. Hall – lhp – Georgia High School
#16 Jeren Kendall – of – Vanderbilt
#17 Tanner Houck – rhp – Missouri
#18 Jacob Heatherly – lhp – Alabama High School
#19 Shane Baz – rhp – Texas High School
#20 Hagen Danner – rhp – California High School
#21 Brian Miller – of – North Carolina
#22 Alex Lange – rhp – LSU
#23 David Peterson – lhp – Oregon
#24 Greg Deichmann – 3b – LSU
#25 Logan Warmoth – ss – North Carolina
#26 Mike Baumann – rhp – Jacksonville
#27 Blayne Enlow – rhp – Louisiana High School
#28 Keston Hiura – 2b – UC Irvine
#29 Griffin Canning – rhp – UCLA
#30 Jordan Adell – of – Kentucky High School
#31 Nate Pearson – rhp – Florida JUCO
#32 Seth Romero – lhp – Houston
#33 Clarke Schmidt – rhp – South Carolina
#34 Nick Allen – ss – California High School
#35 Stuart Fairchild – of – Wake Forest
#36 Gavin Sheets – 1b – Wake Forest
#37 Trevor Rogers – lhp – New Mexico High School
#38 K.J. Harrison – 1b – Oregon State
#39 Heliot Ramos – of – Puerto Rico
#40 J.J. Matijevic – 1b – Arizona
#41 Connor Uselton – of – Oklahoma High School
#42 Ryan Vilade – 3b – Oklahoma High School
#43 Bubba Thompson – of – Alabama High School
#44 Wil Crowe – rhp – South Carolina
#45 Daniel Tillo – lhp – Iowa CC
#46 Mark Vientos – ss – Florida High School
#47 Tristan Beck – rhp – Stanford
#48 Brendon Little – lhp – Florida JUCO
#49 Brent Rooker – 1b – Mississippi State
#50 Riley Adams – c – San Diego

After being recalled following a two-start stint at Triple-A, Kyle Gibson was back in the Twins rotation. Against the Orioles on May 22, Gibson surrendered six earned runs on seven hits while walking four and striking out five. He got the win (pitcher wins are stupid), but there was a clear picture of a pitcher in over his head. For now, he'll remain in the rotation, but during the game, it was worth wondering what would happen next for Minnesota?
 
In an ideal world, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge are all ready to compete at a significant level. That reality isn't one we're living in though. All three are at Double-A, and none are ready to make the jump to Triple-A or the big leagues any time soon. There's still a long term gameplan there, but expecting them to help Minnesota before late summer at the earliest is a fool's errand.
 
That leads us to upstate New York, and deciding what is available in Rochester. We have seen Nick Tepesch once this season. He lasted just 1.2 IP and while six of the seven runs he surrendered were unearned, it was an uninspiring performance unlikely to challenge big league hitters. If Kyle Gibson isn't the guy, and it's beginning to look like he may need more time figuring it out on the farm, then who is?
 
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would likely be tasked with deciding between Aaron Slegers, David Hurlbut, and Jason Wheeler at Rochester. None of them are 40 man players, and of the trio, Slegers is arguably pitching the best this season. While Wheeler has been in big spots previously, and pitched well in 2016, he hasn't gotten off to a great start this season.
 
Slegers was a 5th round pick back in 2013 out of the University of Indiana. He's now 24 years old, and a relative non-prospect. What he's done however, is put forth a consistent track record at every stop through the Minnesota farm system. His professional ERA stands at 3.57 across 494.2 IP. In 2017, he's totaled a 4.25 ERA over 42.1 IP and rarely issues walks (1.9 BB/9). He's never going to be a high velocity guy, and his career 6.5 K/9 is probably lofty at the next level. While the peripherals aren't flashy, there's reason to believe he's capable.
 
Thus far, the Twins have used seven starters, and there's a strong likelihood that number trends towards 10 by the time the dust settles. There's nothing more coveted in the game of baseball than starting pitcher, and even moreso, that of the quality variety. It's not fair to assume that every arm called up to the big league rotation is going to be an impact prospect, but if there's a place the Twins organization is starved, it's there.
 
At multiple points this season, the question as to whether or not Minnesota should deal Ervin Santana has come up. If there's something that highlights the necessity, it could be this. Should the Twins be presented with an offer that returns a solid pitching prospect or two, close to big league ready, there's a lot of appeal there. Right now, this team is much more exciting than many would have imagined, but there's no staying power in the starting pitching.
 
Over the winter, it makes a lot of sense for the Twins to supplement their offensive youth with an impact starter. There's a few names out there that make sense, and the club has money to spend. If the organization can roll out a rotation that includes a big name or two, along with Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia being internal options, they'll be well positioned a year from now.
 
It may have to be Aaron Slegers in the short term, and if Kyle Gibson continues to struggle, there's no reason not to give him a shot. Pinning your hopes to that level of prospect for the future though, doesn't make a lot of sense. The Twins have some top prospect arms in the system, but they'll need a safety net regardless, and having more impact arms is never going to be a bad thing.
 
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http://www.the3rdmanin.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2017-MLB-Draft.png
 
 
A lot has changed on the draft scene since my last mock. I will do a new version with notes next week.
 
 
#1 Minnesota Twins – Kyle Wright – rhp - Vanderbilt
 
#2 Cincinnati Reds – Brendan McKay – lhp - Louisville
 
#3 San Diego Padres – Hunter Greene – rhp – CA High School
 
#4 Tampa Bay Rays – J.B. Bukauskas – rhp – UNC
 
#5 Atlanta Braves – MacKenzie Gore – lhp – NC High School
 
#6 Oakland Athletics – Pavin Smith – 1b - Virginia
 
#7 Arizona Diamondbacks – Royce Lewis – of – CA High School
 
#8 Philadelphia Phillies – Adam Haseley – of - Virginia
 
#9 Milwaukee Brewers – Jeren Kendall – of - Vanderbilt
 
#10 Los Angeles Angels – Alex Faedo – rhp - Florida
 
#11 Chicago White Sox – Sam Carlson – rhp – MN High School
 
#12 Pittsburgh Pirates – Keston Hiura – 2b – UC Irvine
 
#13 Miami Marlins – D.L. Hall – lhp – GA High School
 
#14 Kansas City Royals – Jordan Adell – of – KY High School
 
#15 Houston Astros – Evan White – 1b - Kentucky
 
#16 New York Yankees – Nick Pratto – 1b – CA High School
 
#17 Seattle Mariners – Shane Baz – rhp – TX High School
 
#18 Detroit Tigers – Trevor Rogers – lhp – NM High School
 
#19 San Francisco Giants – Austin Beck – of – NC High School
 
#20 New York Mets – Jake Burger – 3b – Missouri State
 
#21 Baltimore Orioles – Logan Warmoth – ss – North Carolina
 
#22 Toronto Blue Jays – Blayne Enlow – rhp – LA High School
 
#23 Los Angeles Dodgers – Bubba Thompson – of – AL High School
 
#24 Boston Red Sox – Seth Romero – lhp – No School
 
#25 Washington Nationals – Alex Lange – rhp - LSU
 
#26 Texas Rangers – Tristan Lutz – of – TX High School
 
#27 Chicago Cubs – Griffin Canning – rhp - UCLA
 
#28 Toronto Blue Jays – David Peterson – lhp - Oregon
 
#29 Texas Rangers – Corbin Martin – rhp – Texas A&M
 
#30 Chicago Cubs – Wil Crowe – rhp – South Carolina
 
#31 Tampa Bay Rays – Heliot Ramos – of – Puerto Rico
 
#32 Cincinnati Reds – Quentin Holmes – of – NY High School
 
#33 Oakland Athletics – Garrett Mitchell – of – CA High School
 
#34 Milwaukee Brewers – Hans Crouse – rhp – CA High School
 
#35 Minnesota Twins – Tanner Houck – rhp - Missouri
 
#36 Miami Marlins – Brian Miller – of – North Carolina
 
#37 Minnesota Twins – Hagen Danner – rhp – CA High School

In his second start of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, Jose Berrios looked like some sort of well tested veteran for the Minnesota Twins. Not only was he taking on one of baseball's best teams in the Colorado Rockies, but he thoroughly and completely dominated them.
 
Sure, there was the 11 strikeouts. Yeah, he lasted into the 8th inning, working 7.2 IP. And economical, definitely, as he needed just 106 pitches to get that work in. More than the surface numbers though, Berrios' results were punctuated by some truly exceptional moments.
 
Over the course of his outing, he got 20 swinging strikes. To put that into context, he threw 72 strikes in total. That means 28% of the pitches he threw for strikes had Rockies batters swinging right through. Truly an incredible amount, it's not all that surprising given the movement on his pitches. There was the frisbee of a curveball that he tossed to Ian Desmond. The Rockies first basemen was quoted postgame suggesting that Berrios reminded him of the late Jose Fernandez on the mound.
 
It wasn't just the curveball that Berrios had working though, his fastball has some seriously incredible move. In this pitch to Raimel Tapia, that turned into a strike em' out, throw em' out double play, Berrios' fastball gets more movement than anything I've seen since Ubaldo Jimenez's magical season with Colorado. The ball starts on the edge of the plate, and Tapia literally has no chance as the ball casually darts away from his bat.
When looking at what it was that cause Rockies hitters to swing and miss, Berrios didn't discriminate. He was generating whiffs on three of his four pitches (excluding his changeup) and the curveball consistently was getting batters to chase way out of the zone.
 
That bender is something Berrios is obviously confident in as well. He threw it in a handful of different counts, and the 36 curveballs he tossed accounted for 34% of his total on the night. In fact, Berrios virtually operated with a two pitch mix. His fastball (which he does throw both a four and two seam) was used right around 50% of the time. That curve was really his only other offering, as he used his changeup on just six different occasions.
 
It's been a pretty incredible two start sample size, especially considering how his first 14 career starts went. While it's unfair to assume this level of dominance as the norm going forward, we've now seen why Berrios has had such a long hype train following him through the minor leagues. He should safely settle in as a third starter for the Twins, and he has the ability and drive to push the envelope.
As he continues to take the ball every 5th day, the keys to focus in on will remain pitch economy as well as just how impressive the movement he gets on his pitches is. Short in stature, it is in that movement that hitters are deceived, and that will help to allow Berrios opportunity to stay ahead of opposing batters. The pitch plane isn't ever going to work in his favor, but when his ball darts the distance of the zone, even the best big leaguers are going to struggle.
 
May 18, 2017 was among the best starting pitching efforts ever recorded in a Twins uniform. For an organization void of strikeouts for so long, it appears Berrios will pile them up in bunches. If he's going to continue bringing a frisbee to the ballpark, this should be a lot of fun.
 
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Selected 5th overall by the Minnesota Twins in the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, Nick Gordon was immediately among the organizations best prospects. With a strong family pedigree, and plenty of talent on his own, the expectations were sky high for the high school shortstop. Now, fast forward four seasons, and he's proving himself at Double-A with the Chattanooga Lookouts.
 
In 2016, Gordon got his first taste of High-A ball. Spending the whole season in Fort Myers, after making a compelling case to end 2015 there, Gordon slashed a solid .291/.335/.386. Power wasn't ever really expected to be a big part of his game, but his average hovered around .300 for the bulk of the summer, and his on base skills were solid. If there was a knock on him a year ago, it was the poor defensive showing, and a less than ideal baserunning ability.
 
While Gordon doesn't possess the straight-line speed of his brother Dee, he's a burner in his own right. However, he was caught stealing 13 times for the Miracle, swiping just 19 successful bases. Reading pitchers, getting jumps, and picking his spots was something he'd definitely need to hone in on.
 
Then, touted as a glove first prospect when drafted, Gordon took a pretty big step back in the field. Errors are far from the be-all-end-all when evaluating defensive prowess, but Gordon racked them up in bunches. After 18 in Cedar Rapids the year prior (all at SS), he tallied 26 in 2016 (24 at SS). They were split between throwing and fielding, but for a guy that was seen as so fluid at the position, it wasn't a welcomed addition to his game.
 
Coming into the 2017 season, Gordon had fans across the national landscape. He was ranked among the top 50 prospects in the country by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus. A handful of publications tabbed him as the Twins top prospect, and now at 21, it was somewhat expected that the youngster was beginning to grow into his body.
 
Through the first 36 games at the Double-A level, Gordon has done nothing but impress. He's slashing a robust .322/.383/.507. While power likely won't ever show up in a considerable amount, the's tallied 16 extra base hits, three of which have left the yard. Gordon hasn't used much of his speed in the running game, as he's stolen just one base while being caught twice, but it's played to his favor in the form of doubles (8) and triples (5).
 
As a non-roster invitee to spring training, Gordon saw time with the Twins in a handful of big league games. Paul Molitor played him in both spots up the middle, giving him more time at second base than I would have preferred to see. Thus far in 2017, Gordon has started 20 games at short, and 14 at second for the lookouts. Right now, it seems the organization isn't sure where he'll stick, and they also have some decisions to make at the upper levels. He's fared ok defensively, chalking up eight errors across those 34 games (3 at 2B, 5 at SS).
 
Looking at a realistic timeline on Gordon, who again is just 21 years old, 2018 seems to be the year to circle. He's over three years younger than the competition at the current level, and while he could push for a late season promotion to Triple-A, the Twins could decide to keep the same path and have him spend the year in Tennessee. If that's the way they go, a mid-summer or early-fall callup could be in the cards a year from now.
 
Knowing where the Twins stand roster wise, that leaves some questions to be answered on the 25 man roster. Brian Dozier is signed through the 2018 season, at which point he will hit free agency (Minnesota only bought out his arbitration years). If he isn't traded, and that probably hinges on the direction of the team, the middle of the infield would appear occupied. Gordon isn't the sure-thing shortstop he was once touted as, but he's probably a better bet there than Jorge Polanco.
 
No matter how you cut it, Nick Gordon could force the Twins into a situation where they have three mouths to feed, and only two positions to hand out. As a rotational guy ending the 2018 season on the big league roster, Gordon could help to ease the transition for Minnesota if Brian Dozier is cast off prior to 2019. Figuring out how the pieces fit is getting ahead of ourselves for the most part at this point anyways however.
 
What's worth taking note of in the here and now, is that Nick Gordon is absolutely emerging as a strong two way talent for the Twins. His bat has become a weapon, and he's displaying offensive prowess beyond his years. As he continues to compete through the Double-A season this year, and sets his sights on whatever is next, the Twins seem to have a very solid player on the way.
 
Having gone from big name, to uncertain top 100 guy, to a prospect that could find himself in the top 25 a year from now, Gordon continues to battle. For all the picks that haven't worked out in recent years, it appears the son of Flash is absolutely cut from a different cloth.
 
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Image courtesy of Peter Aiken
 
Kyle Wright is a right-handed pitcher for the Vanderbilt Commodores who is one of the top players available in the draft. Wright is 6’4” and weighs 220 pounds, with the prototypical build that scouts love in pitchers.
 
Due to his strong commitment to Vanderbilt, he went undrafted as an Alabama high schooler and has since physically matured and added five miles per hour to his velocity. He got off to a slow start this spring, but he has turned that around in the last few weeks. Wright may have more momentum than any other college player and will be one of the first picks come June.
 
Wright uses a four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range, with occasional flashes into the upper nineties. His curveball should be above average, but early in the season he left it up in the zone too much, which got him into trouble. His slider is an above average pitch, yet there is some debate about whether it is a true slider or if it is more of a cutter. His fourth pitch is a changeup, and although it is behind his other pitches, it should develop into a usable big league offering.
 
Wright uses a long stride in his delivery, but he may lose too much of the momentum he gets into the ground. His upper half also gets slightly behind his lower half during his pitching motion, which sometimes causes him to have inconsistent release points. Even though there are some concerns about his mechanics, he makes it look rather pretty, and his issues should be smoothed out in the development process quickly. Control is not a big issue for Wright, and it should be at least average in the majors.
 
As the draft gets closer, Wright’s name has come up increasingly more often in talk involving the Twins. Teams selecting first in the draft tend to favor players with similar profiles to the Vandy right-hander, and the Twins have been watching him closely. If the Twins draft Wright, he should be in their rotation within the next two years, making him more appealing to a new front office than a player who is further away. College pitchers are not always a safe pick, with their careers often being derailed by injuries, but that is a risk you are taking with anyone. Regardless, when the Twins pick first next month, there is a good chance they will take Wright.
 
Wright was a favorite of scouts entering the season, and he maintained that status through a rough stretch. If he can continue his recent turnaround, he will be a top five draft pick. He has one of the highest ceilings among players in this class, with top of the rotation potential, and he could also move quickly through a system, giving the team that drafts him someone who could pay big dividends soon. Regardless of where he goes in the draft, Wright has a bright future ahead of him.

Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins biggest question mark was exactly how their pitching staff would respond. After being at the bottom of the big leagues a year prior, Minnesota needed a turnaround to return to competitiveness. They've seen a good enough start through the first 30 games or so, but staving of regression will be best accomplished by continuing to raise the water level.
 
As things stand on May 16, the Twins own the 9th best starting ERA in MLB. Ervin Santana has been great, Hector Santiago has been surprising, and Phil Hughes has been serviceable. Jose Berrios is here now, and the 5th starter will remain in flux until someone separates themselves from the pack. The bullpen has been a bit of a different story however.
 
Through their first 120 innings pitches, Minnesota checks in with the 23rd best relief ERA in MLB (4.73). The 7.43 K/9 ranks 28th out of 30 big league teams and the 3.75 BB/9 checks out in the middle of the pack. Largely unaddressed this offseason (Matt Belisle being the only signing of note), the pen remained a major question mark. While it hasn't yet gone off the rails, the goal would be to address things before it gets to that point.
 
Looking at what's out there, you can see some definite pieces. Brandon Kintzler is a solid reliever, even if he toes the questionable line when it comes to working as a closer. Taylor Rogers fits, and Tyler Duffey looks like a real weapon. I still believe Ryan Pressly is more than his funk suggests, and Justin Haley being carried makes sense. While that leaves both Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow, you have to wonder if Minnesota isn't in a position to push for more on their own.
 
Triple-A Rochester has some intriguing arms worthy of a shot. Adding Drew Rucinski to the 40 man roster for a brief call up comes as confusing, if only because there's other options. Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Aaron Slegers, and even Jason Wheeler could all use a look. If we're really trying to push the envelop though, it's at Double-A where the Twins greatest assets lie.
 
Both Mason Melotakis and Nick Burdi have been lights out to start 2017. Melotakis owns a 1.17 ERA across 15.1 IP. He has compiled a 7.0 K/9 while offering free passes at a rate of 2.3 BB/9. The former 2nd round pick has been at Double-A since 2014, albeit missing the 2015 season. He's compiled just under 50.0 IP across the last two years and he's shown an ability to strike batters out, while reducing the walks in 2017.
 
Another 2nd round pick, Burdi has come out guns blazing this season as well. He can push his fastball into triple digits, and seeing him healthy after throwing just three innings last year is a major plus. Across 13.2 IP this season, he's struck out 11.9 per nine innings, and he's walking batters at a very strong 2.6 BB/9. While command has always been Burdi's shortcoming, it's something he seems to have honed in this campaign.
 
I have no idea whether or not the Twins would promote either arm from Double-A, but I would lean towards them not doing so. Both have velocity, and wanting to see them pitch, more than just throw, at the next level might be worthwhile for a stop in Triple-A. Neither guy is going to be able to rely solely on speed at the big league level, and making sure they can get big league hitters out is a must.
Regardless of how they get to the Target Field bullpen, both Melotakis and Burdi have an argument to be there by early summer at the latest. I'd expect at least a brief stop for both in Triple-A, but guys like Breslow or even Adam Wilk, shouldn't stand in their way for a big league opportunity. Unlike a starting prospect, I'd argue that relievers don't necessarily need the long stay at the highest level of the farm. Give them a taste and move them on. J.T. Chargois put forth just 12.1 IP in AAA after 11.2 IP at AA prior to his promotion last year. A similar path could be had for both of these guys.
 
When they arrive, there's little reason to suggest it wouldn't be an immediate boost to the bullpen. Throw in a healthy J.T. Chargois or Jake Reed, and maybe a flier on one of those other names, and Minnesota will have reworked their relief corps from within.
 
Right now, there's some question marks as to how it will come together, and what guys can get healthy, but what Minnesota doesn't have in starting options, they have in relief. Both Burdi and Melotakis can lead the charge, and the dice will fall from there as they may.
 
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