Paul

You may be right on the "faith" thing, but I doubt it. Generally the scouts pick 'em and their job is done. These kids are turned over to the coaches. All the coaches in the minors have the opportunity to have input for every player every year. The faith is theirs-not the guys that picked 'em. Obviously, being a 1st rounder means the spotlight is on you. But 7 years at SS is a long time. His defense has not always been bad. I don't pretend to like or understand the stats for D, but in 09, his last full year at AAA, he was 5 runs above avg. He has average range but a very good arm. That means he can go in the hole AND get you an out. And if he can eliminate the brain farts, he can be a plus plus SS. I've watched Dozier exactly 1 game. I like him. He looks smooth. But nothing about his D stood out to me. I've read some scouts feel he doesn't have the arm or range to be anything but average at SS and would be better suited to 2B. I know Gardy likes him and feels he's got enough range and arm to play...but he also said that about Nishioka...and he also thought Hardy was too slow.

Plouffe spent 7+ years in the minors as a SS. Except 08 when they had him split between SS, 2B and 3B. Then in 09 they chose to have him only play SS again. They had 7 years of faith in him as a developing SS. That's a long time. I don't believe he forgot how to throw. I don't believe he forgot what his feet should be doing. He's got the tools. He's got the instincts. The game is so fast at that level, if your head is just a little out of the game it eats you up. The plays need to be made in your head before the ball is hit. You really don't have time to "think" your way through a play at ML SS, you need to rely on your instincts. Built through countless reps and drills. He's done these drills and reps. If he gets over whatever mental hurdle he's encountered I believe he can take back the SS job and hold it down for 7 or 8 years. Then I won't have to watch Nishioka or Dosier throw rainbows.

I didn't read the article cited so I don't know what kind of spin was put on this by the author but, he most certainly put his finger on ONE of the MULTITUDE of dynamics that are considered in the decision process of who gets hired by MLB teams. This particular dynamic probably carries little or no weight with the Twins, but anyone who believes Texas and St Louis don't covet "good ole boys", or the Marlins don't like the Latin guys, or this was not a factor in Ichiro being in Seatle is being naive. This is not to say this consideration is right or wrong...but it does exist. This is definitely not politicly correct, and I'm sure that every single team would vehemently deny this. But it's about money. In business, if there's a nickel in it, it gets looked at.

Here's my 2 cents. Greater or lesser movement (besides a knuckleball that relates to different phenomena) is caused by a corresponding increase or decrease in RPMs. We used to call gettin' good RPMs a "good finish".

Good question. Especially if you define "heart" as "a burning desire to win that motivates you to do whatever is possible to that end". It was apparent that management lost the clubhouse last year. I haven't seen a game this year (with the grandkids there's plenty of other baseball in my life to love) but, from what I've heard, I'm not sure they've regained it yet.

I agree. And he should be. With his old stuff and his old mechanics he was just too close to the edge. The human body can only withstand so much.

Think of it this way diehard, there are 27 outs in 9 innings, if you were to trade a run for every 2 outs your opponent would score 13.5 runs. That may be acceptable in slow pitch softball, which has 7 inning games with top teams routinely scoring over 20 runs, but not in 9 inning baseball. (Unless the game is already decided by a ton of runs and you just want to end it.)

Hopefully. And when the Ben Revere in right field experiment ends, then we'll be on the right track.

Nice article Parker. It makes sense that a more over the top slot for Blackburn would help him. The higher you go the better the slider becomes. The high slot helps to keep the slider from flattening out but, it makes getting sink on the 2-seamer trickier. The fact he has gone to the higher slot seems, to me, to indicate he is very confident in his sinker now. This bodes well. I hope you're right about Casilla. There's a tremendous ceiling there. You can just see his mind go a million MPH when he struggles. He loses focus and then everything seems to snowball.

A long long time ago, an ex-boss who was really really smart told me "Every thing I own is for sale".

Thank you for the post. I especially like the pictures of Kepler. That's a professional swing. I saw a couple of videos of this kid batting from a couple of years back. I loved his swing for one so young. The current picture shows he has kept on the right track. That's a gap to gap line drive swing. He's also put on quite a bit of weight. I think his mom is a pro dancer and his dad was a pro tennis player. Good genes. If this kid can keep his focus he'll be a beast. Also, I can't wait until you spill the tantalizing beans you alluded to in your comment bout the Mackey thing.

Nice article. "...she mentioned that there are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary and 108 stitches in a baseball." Don't be too hard on the movie makers though. The Hindus and Buddhists each have their malas. A kind of "prayer beads" thing that normally have 108 beads each. And I don't know exactly what constitutes a stitch but, I have a book which shows the tool used by Rawlings to stamp out the leather pieces that cover their balls. Each piece has 108 holes punched in it.

I like the bat speed. Moliter's the guy to work with him too. Moliter had maybe the best forearm/hand contribution to bat speed I've seen. Working with my grandson's team, it's become obvious most kids skimp on the hand contribution to the swing. I get them to look at the contribution their wrist provides in driving a nail with a hammer. And then look at applying this to the bat and ball.

Thanks for the chuckle. True as that may be, I've never seen that attribute associated with a ML leftfielder.

I agree 100% with your assessment of Casilla. He's the guy with the most upside at SS. The love for Caroll is just indicative of the team's frustration of last year. I disagree though with your assessment of the value of the pitchers' opinion re Dozier. Frequently the subjectiveness of the "insiders" reflects the "true" value of the parts. Whether or not they are willing, or can, articulate it to the objective outsiders.

Parker, another thing about the rubber...I would never hesitate a move simply to avoid the other guy's landing pit. It could be that simple. I don't want to give the impression I'm a pitcher. You could probably count the serious games I've pitched in digitally without taking your socks off. I could throw hard and had a good finish so I got a lot of movement but the whole command thing escaped me. But I'm a lifelong student of the game. I consider it an art form. My art form. I'd like you to know that I really appreciate what you guys are doing here with TwinsDaily. This has become my first, and frequently only, stop for Twins info. I especially enjoy your stuff as you provide a statistical perspective for me that I've come to trust. (Notwithstanding the inch by inch rubber thing.) I understand and enjoy the function of statistics but do not seek out the "new" ones for baseball. (I'm embarrassed to say I don't even know what "pitch f/x summits" is.) I do know I get pleasure from the times your statistical perspective agrees with what I see. Anyway, you should know you have at least one happy customer. By the way, good call on that Calif HS pitcher.

T98, Couldn't disagree more with your Blackburn assessment. His strength is his sinker. IMO it's one of the best when it's working and he keeps it down. He mixes that with an adequate slider and changes speeds well. I read his forearm injury last year kept him from throwing the slider, so I'm sure batters would sit on the sinker. I think Blackburn's main problem (other than health) is his apparent lack of mastery of the sinker. He's close, but for some reason it comes and goes for him. It's a real finesse pitch. The required pronation is much more difficult to master than the slider's required supination. The coaching staff likes him a lot because he is so close. I like his motion a lot. It's simple, basic and not extreme in any component. To me, these factors maximize his likelyhood to be able to repeat his mechanics. I'm sure the coaches see this also and like his potential upside. I don't think his sinker is as good as Brandon Webb's but, I've seen him dominate a game like Webb so I know his ceiling. And, with his minimalist motion, I believe he's positioned himself the best he can to reach it. As for the positioning on the rubber thing, that always seemed like smoke to me. I used to screw around with it a bit and other than varying the angular approach of the ball to the batter the tiniest angular fraction (about 6 inches over 60 feet 6 inches) I saw no value. The batter still faces you. You still have to direct your motion to your target. You won't hide the ball longer (be more deceptive) unless you change your motion. I think the moving on the rubber thing is another example example of people trying to "find meaning" in minutia. I think the cited pitchers were just mixing it up. Finding a groove. Showing the batter a different look. If someone can logically explain this deception thing to me I'd appreciate it.

The first thing his drafting team will do is fix that stride. From that video it looks like he's got about a 48" stride. He's 6'6". Traditionally his stride should be 62" min.

Fran, on the surface you are most certainly correct on the cause of the debacle. But two phenomena are evident if you look closer. 1) Health is influenced by state of mind. If you're happy you're healthier. If you're unhappy you're, to a degree, less healthy and more accident prone. 2) People who excel at anything will not thrive under the whip. They check out real fast. Professional sports differ from business in this way. If business is performed competently you win. You make money. Theoretically every single business can make money. And win. You can beat people into making money. Doesn't work that way with professional sports. Every single game played has a loser. The synergy of a team is required to win. Every player in the ML has excelled at every previous level. It's the job of the coach to secure their acceptance of the team dynamic. To get them to "buy into the program". For the players to accept "the program", they need to believe you have their interests in mind. You have to convince them of that. These guys are all under contract. You can't just fire 'em en masse and hire new guys. So, my guess is the reality check you hoped for probably required the exit of Smith. And a lot of communication. And convincing. And coaxing. And no whip until the program was accepted. And maybe some kind of understanding that the Hardy for the black SS hole of "11" was a learning experience that would not be repeated. As to your advice to Hardy, I agree 100%. But to be fair to him, we don't know what was said...only what was reported by the reporter. Further, from the quotes I read and an interview on the radio a while back, Hardy said only the truth in a non-disparaging way. Besides, "no comment" isn't always harmless. Check out the Mauer / Souhan thing going on.

Fran, I really enjoyed your take. Your implication that Hardy is indeed responsible for his condition made me realize I have been discounting the obvious. My upset is lessened. Thank you for that. Something may be obvious to you that I am missing, or you may be privy to data that I'm not, but facts remain that support my position. There is such a thing as victims. There is such a thing as mismanagement. So what if your SS needs special attention. So what if your catcher needs coddling. Or your firstbaseman. Or your centerfielder. This stuff comes under the heading of what management does for a living. It's hard to get your subordinates to follow the course you chart if they believe you are working against them. Not that these two things are mutually exclusive but, I imagine with all the dollars involved in MLB it must be a primary concern of management to keep the team dynamic alive and not let the guys turn into only mercenaries. It seemed to me that this exact thing occured last year with the Twins. Do you disagree? Anyhow, from what i can see and the data I have, I accuse the Brewers of severe mismanagement. And the Twins, at the minimum, of a lack of patience. I think with just a little more oomph from Twins management in this area the debacle of 2011 could have largely been avoided.

There's more to the Hardy situation. He was an allstar in 07. In 08 he put up as good as, or better, numbers. We're talking about corner OF like numbers. He was undoubtedly one of the top SS in baseball, on BOTH sides of the ball. Then 09 happened. The Brewers had young SS Escobar in AAA whom they felt was near ready for the show. Management let everybody within earshot know he was their future SS. But the idiots didn't handle their current allstar guy first. They tried to convince him to move to 3B and he balked. Rightfully so. His performance to that point made him an elite SS and a move from his natural position would cost him millions in future revenue. He had Brewer management in one ear saying "For the team, for the team" and common sense and his agent on the other side. He slumped under the pressure. They demoted him to AAA one day before he would've qualified for arbitration. ONE DAY. This set his free agency back one year and cost him bookoo bucks, He continued to struggle. They got him on psych drugs. Then they traded "problems with upside" with the Twins and exchanged him for Gomez. Now, you can make a case that Hardy should've been tougher mentally...but I say the idiot Brewer management team almost ruined one of the best SS in all of baseball. He got off the psych drugs but still came to the Twins with a "lack of confidence". He had an injury setback with the wrist thing, but with a little "TLC" and healing he got back to his old self the second half of 2010. JJ Hardy was and, proven in the last half of 2010 and 2011, still is a plus SS on D and a plus SS on O. Something, save one year from Guzman, the Twins have not enjoyed since Zoilo. Then the Twins fired him. Because, they say, he wasn't worth 6 million per year. Unless there were extenuating circumstances or character issues unexpressed, to me, the team showed a horrendous lack of patience with this guy. IMO, he was the missing linchpin in 2011. Players at that level recognize the contribution and value of a plus plus SS. I'm sure questions were asked. Hardy and Mauer are the same age and good buddies, and go way back playing together on national teams. I'm speculating here but, I betcha Mauer spoke up and Smith responded with something along the lines of "This is a business. You do your job and I'll do mine". I think they lost Mauer. And then the clubhouse. And went from Hardy and 95 wins to no Hardy and 99 losses. And I'm still pissed about it.