pbrezeasap

Hildenwho? Was my thought when I first saw Trevor Hildenberger pitch for the Minnesota Twins. I hadn’t heard much about him aside from rumblings he was performing consistently well at AAA Rochester. The then 26 year old was drafted in 22nd round of the 2014 amateur player draft out of UC Berkley. He was pick 650 overall, but who’s counting? This was all news to me. The Twins had been through a dearth of ho-hum relievers on their way to a typically mediocre bullpen. I didn’t pay much attention to Hildenberger, thinking he might not last long in the majors. What a considerable miscalculation that was.
 
Hildenberger had good MiLB numbers, but I had no idea how dominant he was. In any MiLB stint in which Hildenberger pitched at least 20 innings, he never had a K/9 of under 9.6, and never had a GB% lower than 53%. He topped out at 11.8 K/9 at low A. His GB% peaked at 67%. To put that into some major league perspective, only 4 guys who threw at least 40 innings in 2017 had a GB% higher than 67% (one of whom, Scott Alexander, the Dodgers saw fit to trade for as a replacement for Tony Watson in their bullpen). Granted, Hildenberger was at high A, but the signs were promising. Hildenberger had consistently shown an ability to do two things which in combination can make a reliever elite; get lots of strikeouts and induce a ton of ground balls.
 
Fastforward to June of 2017 and Hildenberger makes his MLB debut. Before continuing, it’s worth pointing out that Hildenberger has a pretty small MLB sample size to date. This is therefore more of a commentary on what has been, rather than a prediction of what will be. In 2017, Hildenberger finished his rookie season with a GB% of 58.8%. This was good for 13th among relievers who threw at least 40 innings. If you add the criterion of relief pitchers who had K/9 greater than 9, Hildenberger is one of 23 relievers across major league baseball to combine these rather useful traits (he ranks 10th by K/9 from the qualified list). Hildenberger ranked right above Bryan Shaw, who just signed a 3 year pact with the Rockies for $27 million, (Hildenberger will make almost nothing by comparison in 2018). The top two names on this list are Nationals Ryan Madson, and Pirates Felipe Rivero. Both Madson and Rivero were elite relief pitchers last year, combining for a WAR of 4 and averaging an xFIP of 2.72 between them. Madson and Rivero are a fascinating duo of names in part are so entirely different from Hildenberger, both rely heavily on their velocity. So what makes Hildenberger so good? And what makes him able to generate such a high level of ground balls and strikeouts?
 
Velocity
On a surface level, Hildenberger is unusual when you take a closer look at his velocity as a pitcher. At first glance, Hildenberger seems like a soft tossing side-armer. This is not the case. Despite not using it much, Hildenberger’s fastball showed a steady increase in velocity from June to October in his first big league season, from just under 91 mph in July, up to a season high of 94.78 mph in October.
 
The aforementioned Felipe Rivero and Hildenberger share a fascinating skill, an excellent changeup. Rivero threw his changeup around 20% of the time in 2017, to Hildenberger’s 35%. Both however, are a significant value add for each pitcher. Hildenberger and Rivero have a similar velocity differential between their highest and lowest velocity pitch (between 15-16 mph on average). Hildenberger’s approach differs because he throws his fastball just 13% of the time. Contrarily to the majority of pitchers who use their fastball to set up their off-speed pitches, Hildenberger is constantly working off-speed (35% changeups) and uses a surprisingly competent fastball to keep hitters honest. While Hildenberger’s sinker and changeup are vastly superior pitches, his use of velocity is an example of how his unconventional means keep hitters off balance.
 
Release Point
The next aspect of Hildenberger’s unusual approach that merits some thought is his release point, or rather, points. Simply put, a release point is the combination of horizontal and vertical coordinates from which a pitchers releases the ball. Higher release points tend to produce more sink, more extreme horizontal release points tend to create more horizontal action throughout the plane of the pitch.
 
The chart below shows Felipe Rivero’s vertical release point (in feet) throughout the 2017 season for his four pitches. Many pitchers, like Rivero have pretty consistent release points, born of mechanics which have been tuned and honed over many years. Rivero’s fastball has an average release point of 5.69 feet, while his slider has an average release point of 5.43, a differential of .26 feet between his highest and lowest release points. By contrast, the average vertical release point of Hildenberger’s fastball is 5.6 feet, while his average release of his changeup is 4.13 feet, good for a differential of 1.47 feet. Hildenberger has an incredibly low and difficult to pick up release point for pitches he throws 70% of the time (his sinker and changeup), simply because hitters rarely see baseballs coming towards the strike zone from such a height, or lack thereof. Additionally, Hildenberger has a huge differential between his different arm slots. In essence, facing Hildenberger throwing a fastball versus Hildenberger throwing a changeup is like facing two completely different pitchers in the same sequence of pitches.
 


 


 
While the horizontal point of release does not make for quite such an impressive contrast, a similar disparity exists, both comparing Hildenberger to other pitchers and within his own pitch mix. In short, Hildenberger’s inconsistency in his vertical and horizontal release points go a long way to overcoming the limitations of his lack of velocity.
 
The Twins seem likely to let Fernando Rodney handle ninth inning duties as closer in 2018. Hildenberger made an incredibly impressive debut in 2017 using extraordinary means to pile up extraordinary results. He will likely assume the mantle of the relief pitcher used most frequently in high leverage situations moving forwards. This is a spot Twins fans should feel comfortable with ‘Hildy’ occupying. After all, he’s already proved he can. Minnesota, get to know your real bullpen MVP.

It all begins today with the National Football League's Wildcard games.
 
This is the year that the Minnesota Vikings exorcize their demons one week at a time.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Joe-Kapp-600x405.jpg
I'm calling it right now. The Vikes are going to erase the memory of past failures every time they take the field in the postseason.
 
Think about it... what are arguably the biggest disappointments in Minnesota Viking history?
 
For my money, I'd list them this way
Every Super Bowl loss. I don't care if it was the first against the Chiefs or any of the other three against the Dolphins, Steelers and Raiders, they all sucked. Super Bowl Sunday was one dark blotch on the entire decade of the 70s.
Gary Anderson's missed field goal in the 1999 NFC Championship game against the Atlanta Falcons. I mean the guy NEVER missed. EVER. But that one time, he did. And the Vikings' shot at a redeeming Super Bowl win died.
Bountygate and Brett Favre's ill-advised pass against the New Orleans Saints in the 2010 NFC Championship game that, once-again, ended what we all hoped would be a Super Bowl season.

This is the year the Vikings settle all family business.
 
Of course, it will require the Falcons and Saints to do their parts and win their Wildcard games this weekend. But once the Falcons eliminate the Rams and the Saints send the Panthers home, the Vikings' Redemption Tour can get underway.
 
First up, they get revenge for 2010 and end the Saints' season. And if they just happen to beat up Drew Brees so badly that he retires from football, well, that would just be karma.
 
To set up the next exorcism, the Falcons will have to dump the Eagles, but honestly, does anyone really see Nick Foles leading his team to a playoff win against, well, anybody? I don't.
 
That sets up a do-over of 1998's gut-punch and this time the Vikings have a kicker that has already missed his first field goal of the season... and his second... and his third... and his fourth... and his fifth... and his sixth. Let's face it, the last thing Kai Forbath will have to think about as he lines up to kick a potential winning field goal is, "this would be a bad time to miss my first field goal of the season."
 
Just to be safe, of course, it would be best if the rest of the team spends the first 59 minutes of the game destroying the Falcons so we don't have to wonder what Forbath is thinking when he sets up for a clutch field goal (or PAT attempt, for that matter).
 
That brings us to what we've all been looking forward to - the Vikings hosting the Super Bowl in their own home stadium.
 
Now, I know most of the prognosticators are saying they'll face the New England Patriots in the Big Game. And that would be fun, I agree.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Chuck-Forman.jpg
It would also be very cool to see the Buffalo Bills somehow weave their way through the AFC playoff minefield and set up a contest between the two franchises with easily the sorriest Super Bowl histories in the NFL.
 
After all, one fanbase would finally have something to really celebrate.
 
But no, the Vikings must face either the Kansas City Chiefs, who topped the Joe Kapp led Vikings (yes, Joe Kapp actually led a team to the Super Bowl... I still don't understand how that happened, but it did) in the 1970 Super Bowl, or the Pittsburgh Steelers, who out-defensed the Vikings in 1975's version.
 
Either the Chiefs or Steelers would serve as an appropriate representative from which the Vikings could garner vindication for all four past Super Bowl losses.
 
That path, extinguishing the flames of the Saints, Falcons and either the Chiefs or Steelers and leading to the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy, all taking place in U.S. Bank Stadium, no doubt in front of Bud Grant, Fran Tarkenton and a host of past Vikings greats, would finally put to rest all of the ghosts that have haunted the Vikings over the past five decades.
 
Make it so.
 
(This article originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

By now you’ve probably heard that the Minnesota Twins have an outfielder who is setting the world on fire down at Triple-A. His name is Zack Granite, and he’s a jack-of-all-trades as far as outfield defense is concerned, and he’s hitting a robust .371/.423/.516 in 54 games between Triple-A Rochester (49 games) and High-A Fort Myers (five games).
 
He’s not just stellar in the batter’s box, but he’s stolen 119 bases over five season in the Twins system at a success rate of 73.4 percent. The success rate is a little lower than one might like, but he’s gotten increasingly better in recent years, stealing 73 bases over the last season-and-a-half at a success rate of 79.3 percent. Depending on the run environment in the big leagues year-to-year, a good success rate is somewhere in the vicinity of 75 percent, so he checks off that box.
 
But this year’s offensive outburst is way, way out of character for the 24-year-old outfielder. That’s even more true when considering he was hitting just .259/.303/.339 coming into June. That’s right; in 27 games this month, Granite is hitting an unheard of .486/.541/.697 with 11 doubles, three triples, two home runs and 13 walks against 15 strikeouts. His BABIP for the month is an unconscious .554! He’s got more than one hit in 20 of the 27 games he’s played in this month.
 
But part of bringing Granite up now is to capitalize on that hot stretch. He’s already on the 40-man roster, basically is who he is and isn’t likely to be ruined by being “rushed” as a player who’ll turn 25 by season’s end.
 
He can also help the Twins right now.
 
Kennys Vargas is hitting just .234/.264/.426, and as a bat-first — or perhaps more accurately, bat-only — player with limited access to playing time, he’s really not helping the team that much. His role is even further diminished when considering Eduardo Escobar has been so hot lately that he’s taken more playing time at third base, with Miguel Sano seeing more time at DH. Even if that doesn’t continue, it still probably means more of Escobar at DH or shortstop, and a shuffle which trickles down to less time for Vargas on the field.
 
Read the rest of this article on ZoneCoverage.com here.