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Jeremy Nygaard

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  1. Jeremy Nygaard
    The Twins added another right-handed pitcher from Rice in the 5th round - Tyler Duffey. Duffey currently shares the closer distinction with 2nd round pick J.T. Chargois. While Chargois was the higher-rated prospect, Duffey had the better numbers. Duffey, however, is not the power-pitcher that Chargois is, but will probably be given a chance to start given his ability to throw a low-90s fastball, a slider and a change-up. If the change-up doesn't come around, he'll be shifted back to the bullpen; if it does, we could be looking at an Anthony Swarzak-type pitcher. Upon signing, Duffey will probably head to Elizabethton.
     
    The Twins went the prep route in Round 6 to draft LHP Andre Martinez out of Archbishop McCarthy HS in Florida. An FSU commit, we're looking at the first draftee that has a signability question. Martinez projects as a starter with a deceptive delivery. If the Twins pay overslot to sign him, he would start his career with the GCL Twins.
     
    The Twins have to start adding some infielders at some point, right?
  2. Jeremy Nygaard
    The second round opened with the Twins selecting LHRP Mason Melotakis out of Northwestern State. Unlike Bard before him, who will get a chance to be a starter, Melotakis will most likely start in the bullpen. He sold himself with an excellent performance in the Cape Cod League. Melotakis is a mid-90s power arm that will probably pitch some rookie-ball innings and then join the Beloit bullpen this summer.
     
    Nine picks later (and with Mitchell Brown still available!), the Twins took another college relief pitcher, J.T. Chargois (from Rice). Chargois compares similarly to Melotakis, throwing in the mid-90s and can run it up to the high-90s, though he has had some control issues. Chargois, however, has not had the opportunity to focus strictly on pitching, as he's played a lot of first base. I thought Chargois had a chance to go a little higher, so it will be interesting to see his bonus amount. There is a chance that he could join the Fort Myers bullpen, but it's more likely that his final destination in 2012 is Beloit. Chargois has a chance to join the Twins bullpen by 2014.
     
    The Twins deviated from their path to take a right-handed power bat in Adam Brett Walker out of Jacksonville. While he has drawn comps to Giancarlo Stanton, I would compare him to Josh Willingham. He is currently listed as a RF, but his future is going to either be at 1B or LF. The interesting fact about Walker is that he grew up in Wisconsin and his dad played professional football for the Minnesota Vikings. I see Walker as a guy that could sign quickly and report to low-A ball to play in front of family and friends.
     
    Back to college relievers, the Twins selected Zachary Jones out of San Jose State. Jones will more than likely spend his summer in Elizabethton's bullpen throwing a mid-to-high-90s fastball and a pretty good slider.
     
    Look for the Twins to draft T.J. Oakes, a catcher, some high school arms and a middle infielder yet in the first ten rounds.
  5. Jeremy Nygaard
    This is version 1.0 (and most likely the only one).
     
    My mock draft:
    1. Astros – P Mark Appel, Stanford. It comes down to him or Buxton.
    2. Twins – OF Byron Buxton, Georgia HS. Correa gaining.
    3. Mariners – SS Carlos Correa, Puerto Rico. The Mariners are unpredictable. I think it comes down to Correa or Buxton
    4. Orioles – P Kevin Gausman, LSU. Bundy and Gausman could form a lethal combination.
    5. Royals – P Kyle Zimmer, San Francisco. Will they pass on Zunino? Will they gamble on Giolito?
    6. Cubs – OF Albert Almora, Florida HS. Correa dropping could make this pick interesting.
    7. Padres – P Max Fried, California HS. Zunino is a possibility.
    8. Pirates – C Mike Zunino, Florida. Zunino could go anywhere, staring at #3. Marrero is a possibility.
    9. Marlins – P Andrew Heaney, Oklahoma State. Almora was the ideal choice.
    10. Rockies – OF Courtney Hawkins, Texas HS.
    11. Athletics – P Lance McCullers, Florida HS. Could Billy Beane figure out a way to afford Giolito?
    12. Mets – 3B Corey Seager, NC HS. Wright heir-apparent? I like Seager more than most.
    13. White Sox – P Marcus Stroman, Duke. In the race, how about a Chris Sale redux.
    14. Reds – P Michael Wacha, Texas A&M.
    15. Indians – P Chris Stratton, Mississippi State.
    16. Nationals – OF David Dahl, Alabama HS.
    17. Blue Jays – P Brian Johnson, Florida. I think the Blue Jays are going to save here to spend later.
    18. Dodgers – P Ty Hensley, Oklahoma HS.
    19. Cardinals – SS Deven Marrero, Arizona State.
    20. Giants – P Shane Watson, California HS.
    21. Braves – 3B Richie Shaffer, Clemson.
    22. Blue Jays – P Lucas Giolito, California HS.
    23. Cardinals – P Matt Smoral, Ohio HS.
    24. Red Sox – SS Gavin Cecchini, Louisiana HS.
    25. Rays – OF D.J. Davis, Mississippi HS.
    26. Arizona – 3B Stephen Piscotty, Stanford.
    27. Brewers – C Clint Coultier, Washington HS.
    28. Brewers – SS Addison Russell, Florida HS.
    29. Rangers – C/OF Stryker Trahan, Louisiana HS.
    30. Yankees – P Mitchell Gueller, Washington HS.
    31. Red Sox – OF Tyler Naquin, Texas A&M.
    PLUS ONE
    32. Twins – P Mitch Brown, Minnesota HS.
     
    Players to be considered at #42: P Lucas Sims, Georgia HS; P Zach Eflin, Florida HS; P J.O. Berrios, Puerto Rico; P Hunter Virant, California HS; P Alec Rash, Iowa HS.
  6. Jeremy Nygaard
    Originally posted at www.ManCenter.com
     
    -----------
     
    Looking through names that expect to called next week, there are a few that seem to fit various patterns that the Twins have followed over the last handful of years. None of these names have appeared in any other preview that I've written.
     
    Luke Anderson, RHP, North Dakota State - Anderson is originally from Prior Lake, MN, so there is a very good chance he's been on the Twins radar for awhile. A senior with local ties could be added late in the draft to provide organizational depth.
     
    Kyle Cody, RHP, Chippewa Falls, WI - The Twins took a flier last year on J.J. Dettmann, a projectable pitcher from Western Wisconsin who ended up going to Connecticut. While Cody is very likely to head to Kentucky this fall, it wouldn't surprise anyone for them to take Cody to show their interest. Also of note, Chippewa Falls is Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra's birthplace.
     
    Brian Hanson, OF, St. Cloud State - Another Minnesota native, Hanson was drafted by the Indians out of high school. Hanson does have another year of eligibility left, but the Twins have done a very thorough job of drafting players for the state of Minnesota.
     
    McClendon Hill, SS, Georgia Perimeter JC - The Twins have taken a couple of players from this Junior College over the last few drafts. They also like to take athletic players from the state of Georgia.
     
    Matt Milroy, RHP, Illinois - While Milroy's raw stuff is much better than his actual stuff, the Twins have drafted quite a few Big Ten pitchers. Milroy may be the best of the that lot this year.
     
    Alec Rash, RHP, Adel, IA - Rash's build and scouting report reads almost identically to current farmhand and former Iowan B.J. Hermsen, a 2008 draft pick. Hermsen was given 2nd round money as a 6th round to buy him out of Oregon State. Could we see something similar with Rash and his commitment to Missouri?
     
    Timmy Robinson, OF, Huntington Beach, CA - The Twins like prepsters from California. The Twins like relatives of current Twins. The brother of Alex Burnett figures to be on the radar in the first half-dozen rounds.
     
    Wilfredo Rodriguez, C, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy - Rodriguez could continue the Twins run of getting the "bat tool" out of Puerto Rico. There are questions about whether he can stick at catcher... but if he can, the Twins would have added interest.
     
    Dalton Sawyer, LHP, Waconia, MN and Brent Strong, LHP, Andover, MN - The top two prep lefties in the state are committed to Minnesota and Bradley, respectively. If the Twins find themselves with extra money to spend in the late teens, it wouldn't surprise anyone if one of these two (or both) was the recipient of it. Similar to how the Twins got Austin Malinowski under contract last year.
     
    Julian Service, OF, Whitby, Ontario, Canada - The Twins have had past success in Canada with both Morneau and Rene Tosoni. Service is not the prototypical toolsy Twins outfielder, but he is slighty bigger, right-handed version of Tosoni.
     
    Storm Throne, RHP, Morningside (IA) - Similar to Rash, the Twins have taken pitchers from Iowa. Throne, who also is a basketball player, figures to return to college to play both sports as a senior, but this big, projectable righty fits the profile the Twins often look for.
  7. Jeremy Nygaard
    Baseball America recently released their Top 500 and the following players are guys that show up on the list that the Twins have previously drafted.
     
    [TABLE=width: 509]


    2012 DRAFT ELIGIBLE
    POS
    DRAFTED
    BA RANK
    COLLEGE
    CLASS


    James Ramsey
    OF[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

    #51
    FLORIDA STATE
    SR

    [TD=colspan: 6]Has been called "baseball's Tim Tebow", turned down a $500K offer from Twins because he didn't want to move to second base.[/TD]



    Pat Light
    RHP[TD=align: right]2009[/TD]

    #81
    MONMOUTH
    JR

    [TD=colspan: 6]Big-bodied pitcher who pounds the zone. Will get a chance to start, but could end up in late-inning role with mid-90s fastball.[/TD]



    Ryan Tella
    OF[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

    #201
    AUBURN
    R-SO

    [TD=colspan: 6]Compared to Clete Thomas, though scouting report reads more like Denard Span.[/TD]



    Ronnie Richardson
    OF[TD=align: right]2009[/TD]

    #231
    CENTRAL FLORIDA
    JR

    [TD=colspan: 6]Five-foot-six, he's not as fast as Ben Revere, though he has a better arm.[/TD]



    T.J. Oakes
    RHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

    #292
    MINNESOTA
    JR

    [TD=colspan: 6]Twins familiar with Oakes, whose dad is the Gophers pitching coach.[/TD]



    Eduardo (EJ) Encinosa
    RHP[TD=align: right]2009[/TD]

    #322
    MIAMI
    JR

    [TD=colspan: 6]Has the Miami attitude (think Valencia), though he doesn't have the control or command to spot his mid-90s fastball.[/TD]



    Dylan Chavez
    LHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

    #339
    MISSISSIPPI
    JR

    [TD=colspan: 6]Has bounced around. Is a strike-thrower, who throws a fastball in the low-90s out of the bullpen[/TD]



    Will Clinard
    RHP[TD=align: right]2011[/TD]

    #367
    VANDERBILT
    JR

    [TD=colspan: 6]Tough sign. Hasn't pitched much as Vandy's closer, has a low-90s fastball and a good slider.[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
  9. Jeremy Nygaard
    As you probably know, the MLB Draft will be taking place in just a little over a week. There is a lot of draft-related material scattered all over this very website. Among them are a handful of Draft Previews that I've written. Recently, there was a lengthy thread started by "cmb0252" which is all about the draft.
     
    What follows is a tag team effort between myself and "cmb0252" (I'm not sure if he's ready to introduce himself to the world yet), which took place over the last couple of days.
     
    ----
     
    Jeremy Nygaard: The assumption – right or wrong – is that the Astros take Mark Appel first overall. That doesn’t affect my board at all. I have Byron Buxton solidly at #1. I know there are knocks on him – and the perception that outfield is the deepest position in the system – but, as the organizational philosophy goes: he’s the best player available. No one, besides Miguel Sano (and maybe not even Sano), has the upside that this guy has.
     
    cmb0252: If we are going by the assumption that the Astros take Mark Appel with the first overall pick, that also doesn't affect my board.
     
    As Keith Law put it, "he could easily end up the best player out of this draft, given his youth and upside at the plate." No, he wasn't talking about Buxton, but Carlos Correa. Correa just turned 17, a year and a half younger than Buxton, and is considered to have the best high school bat in the draft. Where Buxton might have the defensive edge profiling as a plus plus up the middle player and while most feel Correa will outgrow SS he still profiles as a plus defensive 3B. Younger, better bat, huge upside, AND is at a position we actually need. Twins actually haven't been linked to Correa so for arguments sake I will bring up a name they have: Gausman. (EDITOR'S NOTE: The Twins were linked to Correa last night.)
     
    Once again quoting Keith Law, "Gausman is flashing two plus secondary pitches now and getting ground balls and has the velocity to match the other guys, not to mention better results as a sophomore in the nation's best conference. "While Gausman profiles as a #2, which would still put him in the top 40-50 pitchers in baseball, he does have a ceiling of a number one. I guess my question to my counterpart would be, why does a 18+ year old HS kid have a better chance to hit his ceiling than a 21 year old college kid? In the end they both have high ceilings but one also has a high floor.
     
    JN: If the Twins decide to go college pitcher, I really hope it is Gausman. I also think there is better chance that Gausman reaches his ceiling than Buxton. Buxton’s ceiling, though, is higher. The moment he signs he’s going to be a top-25 prospect in all of baseball. The same can’t be said for any of the college pitchers, in my opinion. While the Twins haven’t gotten a lot of opportunities to draft the top-of-the-line starters, they also haven’t had the chance to draft very many middle-of-the-order, middle-of-the-defense-type players either. We’re talking Justin Upton/Matt Kemp comps. That’s league MVP comparables. But that’s ceiling again and far from a slam-dunk.
     
    With all that being said, I wouldn’t fault the Twins for drafting Buxton, Gausman or Correa. Chances are one of those guys is going to sign for $3.5 million as the #5 pick, a much better value than the $6.2 million that the #2 pick is worth. Long story short, I don’t think there is a $2.7 million difference in those three guys, and a case can be made that any of the three are the best.
     
    ------
     
    JN: I’m curious to see what happens with Mitch Brown. Being local, he’s as “can’t-miss” as we’ve seen since Mauer. My philosophy going in would be to let him know that we have him evaluated as a “sandwich round” prospect, tell him we really want him and offer him a little over “sandwich-round average” ($1.2 million) as the 32nd pick. I hope that buys him out of his commitment and the team can bank $350,000 savings.
     
    CB: For Twins fans who follow the draft outside of who the Twins are taking at #2 the hottest topic is Mitch Brown. For those of you that haven't heard of Brown "the best draft prospect out of Minnesota in 2012" here is MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo's take on him:
     
    "While not the biggest guy in the world, he is strong and durably built. He also has a good idea of what he’s doing on the mound. The right-hander can run his fastball up to 94 mph. He can spin a breaking ball pretty well, throws a good cutter and even shows a feel for the changeup. That gives him the chance to have four Major League average or well above offerings in the future."
     
    Mayo has him at 66, Law has him at 45, and BA has him at 44. While I won’t argue that we shouldn't target Brown- we need all the pitching we can get- I'm going to suggest it would be better to roll the dice and hope he is there at pick #42. There should still be premium talent around at #32, we need as much premium talent as we can get, and we can’t waste that pick on sentiment.
     
    Obviously we won’t know who will be there at #32 on draft day but looking at mocks there are is a good chance a player like Zach Elfin, Matt Smoral, Corey Seager, or Stryker Trahan could be waiting for us.
     
    JN: The industry sentiment is that teams are going to take guys they like early, pay them less than slot value and see what falls to them later, knowing they would be able to pay those guys more than slot value. I would argue that unless there is a guy the Twins like more (that has similar demands), they should absolutely draft Brown at #32.
     
    As you mentioned, Baseball America, who I trust more than the others, rates Brown 44, which is probably close to where I’d rank him on talent alone. But don’t forget to account for the guys that are rated higher that will drop because of their demands. If some of those guys are there at #32, I’d rather risk letting them slide to #42, knowing that I’ve at least gotten the guy I want (Brown) at #32. It would also be easier to stomach – from a pure financial standpoint – letting a lower draft pick go unsigned, as that money is removed from the spending pool.
     
    ----
     
    JN: With the rules around bonuses changing, I’ve spent so much time wondering how the Twins squeeze every last penny out of their $12,368,200 bonus pool to make this draft as productive as possible. At the end of the day, though, I have a hard time believing the “cost-effective” team even spends $11 million.
     
    CB: I agree that there is a very slim chance the Twins use their whole‚ $12,368,200 bonus pool‚ but I wouldn't be surprised if they broke $11M. The Twins spent $5.9M on 2011 draft which was actually over the recommended amount last year. Where that sounds like a small number compared to this year you have to take into account that the #2 pick, $6.2M bonus, has a higher recommended bonus than our whole draft last year. Also, the 30th overall pick Levi Michael signed for $1.175M last year which is actually less money than the recommended signing bonus for the #32 pick this year. Not only do the Twins have the chance, money, and picks to bring a lot of talent into our minor league system, they have the need.
     
    JN: You’re right, obviously the $6.2 million figure skews the data. Looking at their signing history, though, the Twins – and every other team, presumably – are going to bank savings on college seniors: Adam Bryant signed for $25,000 last year (this year’s value: $125,600), Matt Hauser ($45,000 vs $141,700) and Kyle Knudson ($25,000 vs $129,300) in 2010. Heck, even Brian Dozier ($30,000 vs $139,500) was a great “value” pick. Yes, this could give them the chance to sign some later-drafted guys to bigger deals, but I just have a feeling: When all is said and done, the Twins will have shaved a lot of money off their full allotment.
     
    -----
     
    JN: I’m going to dream a little bit. Pie-in-the-sky hope here: Buxton and Brown go #2 and #32. The team knows their demands and will have around $2 million to spend on #42. Keeping with the pie-in-the-sky theory, I really hope that a high-school pitcher with high demands, like a Matt Smoral, Zach Eflin, J.O. Berrios or Hunter Virant, can be convinced to take a couple million - that other teams won't be able to offer - to join the Twins.
     
    CB: Where we differ at who we prefer the Twins to take at #2, Buxton vs Correa/Gausman, we have pretty much the same names at #32/42.....just different order.‚ If you are asking me my realistic "dream" draft?‚ Gausman at #2, Elfin at #32, and Brown at #42 would work for me. Three guys that profile as mid to top of the rotation starters who have a chance to be more. Sounds exactly like what the doctor ordered to fix our woe minor league pitching staffs.
    In the end though I would be happy with a draft of one of Buxton/Correa/Guasman, Brown, and one of Virant/Smoral/Eflin/Seager.
     
    JN: I would be ecstatic if Seager fell out of the first round and the Twins were able to draft him and get him signed. If he’s fallen that far, though, I have to believe that no one was able to meet his demands and that would be enough to scare the Twins off too. If the Twins get two high-ceiling pitchers out of the first three picks, I’d end Day 1 of the draft a pretty happy Twins fan.
     
    ---
     
     
    Part 2: COMING SOON!
  15. Jeremy Nygaard
    As we suffered through a 99-loss season last year, many of us believed the biggest issue was health (or lack of it) and that a winter recovering would help solve that problem.
     
    While competing with the big wigs in the American League was still going to be a tall task, finishing the 2012 season with just as many wins as losses seemed within reach. I don't think even the most pessimistic fans assumed that 30 games in - and relatively healthy - the Twins would have 3 less wins than any other team in baseball. I think this has given all Twins fans a shot of reality. The reality is that Division Titles, October baseball, sweeps against the Yankess - things that almost became habit - are a couple (at best!) years away.
     
    Maybe it's the elementary school teacher in me (in fact, I'm sure it is), but a habit of mine (that will continue) is to focus on certain behaviors, results or people and analyze those as it pertains to the big picture. Or in elementary terms: "Are you contributing to the problem or are you trying to be part of the solution?"
     
    Unfortunately, there is usually a small percent of, in this case, people that serve as the fulcrum of this problem vs solution battle. Fortunately, I'm not trying to salvage 2012. I'm trying to compete in 2015. So with an eye on 2015, let's look at the current 25-man roster.
     
    The first group of players are the "Mehs". Think about that high school girlfriend you had that you forgot to tell your wife about. It's not because you were trying to hide anything; it's because you simply forgot about her. These are guys that aren't really part of the problem, but they aren't going to be part of the 2015 solution. You think about their long-term value to the team. You shrug your shoulders and say, "Meh".
     
    There are seven guys I put in this group today. They could go either way or stay the same or, meh, whatever...
     
    C Ryan Doumit - While he has played better of late, the free-agent-to-be remains a strong candidate to be traded. The return on that trade isn't likely going to be part of the solution.
    P Nick Blackburn - At his best, Blackburn can burn 200 innings and give his team a chance to win. He's at his best one month of the season. Luckily (yawn), the Twins locked him up through at least next year.
    P Anthony Swarzak - As a long-relief/spot-starter, he does provide value. Can he make the rotation next year?
    RP Alex Burnett - Burnett is still young enough that he could become a solid, late-inning bullpen arm... or just fade away.
    C Drew Butera - Do you remember this? While I understand the value of a "Drew Butera", I also understand the pain of having a .167 BA while getting regular at-bats.
    INF Jamey Carroll - He'll be around, probably, and be a good clubhouse presence for the next year (or two), but that's about it.
    OF Erik Komatsu - Is he a 4th outfielder at best? He'll get his shot to stick or suck. But there's a good chance we'll forget about him by this time next year.
     
    The next group of guys are part of the problem, for various reasons. As Luke Hughes, Sean Burroughs and Clete Thomas before them, some may say they didn't get a fair shake. Or they just weren't (ever?) very good.
     
    RP Jeff Gray - Gray has bounced around over the last five years. He'll keep bouncing. Right now, he's here. He might not be tomorrow.
    LRP Matt Maloney - Maloney's wikipedia page compares him to a "young Tom Glavine". Really? How young are they talking? Another pitcher on borrowed time.
    INF/OF Trevor Plouffe - The leash on "home-grown" guys typically is a little longer than others, but am I the only one that thinks that going 6-for-43 isn't going to "earn" more chances? The 10 walks might be his saving grace. Or his defense might be the final straw.
    INF Alexi Casilla - The biggest positional tease on the roster, Casilla has never played more than 97 games in a season. Lack of durability is a problem.
     
    Some other problems...
     
    P Jason Marquis - Though he seems like a good guy - and decent pitcher - he offers very little short- or long-term value to the club. He's serving as a placeholder and those doesn't make teams better (but also usually don't make them worse).
    3B Danny Valencia - It sounds like Valencia is being shopped and there are no takers. I bet there would be if he provided something a team needed, like... hmm... well, there are times I like his right-handed bat at Target Field.
    P Carl Pavano - I do like Carl Pavano. (No, not like this guy.) He's great to have around a young staff, but his loss of velocity and age might be signaling the end.
     
    The big problems...
     
    "Matt Capps" - It's not so much P Matt Capps, but what "Matt Capps" symbolizes. Wilson Ramos, proven closers, forfeited draft pick. All things that make Twins fans cringe. Oh, and his penchant to give up the long ball.
    P Francisco Liriano - Less than a month ago, I would have been okay with offering Liriano arbitration (and possibly $12.5m) next year. After the alcohol wore off, I just wish the Twins would have traded for Ivan Nova when they had the chance. Liriano may be headed to the bullpen in a spot-swap with Brian Duensing.
    1B Justin Morneau - The 2006 MVP is still capable of playing at high levels. The problem is that he's not often capable of playing at all. If Morneau can get and stay healthy (fat chance!), some team will add him for a playoff push... if the Twins are willing to kick in a few million dollars.
     
    So now that the painful part is over, let's look at the solutions...
     
    C Joe Mauer - Like it or not, he's locked in town until 2018. So if he wants to win a Title, he's going to need to be part of the solution.
    CF Denard Span - It's been mentioned several times that Span is an asset. I couldn't agree more. But if he's not traded, he's definitely a part that can help the Twins compete again. If the Rangers call and dangle LP Martin Perez... well, I would say that Span helped solve the pitching problem.
    LF Josh Willingham - Whether there is a market for The Hammer or not, I'm smitten by his power at Target Field, his contract and the fact that, by the end of his contract, he can be the DH. The only problem is that, in looking towards 2015, his contract ends after 2014.
    LRP Glen Perkins - I feel about Perkins a lot like I feel about Span. Perkins is going to be around long-term... unless the Twins can spin him for other assets.
    LP Brian Duensing - It seems like Duensing has been around forever, but he hasn't even hit arbitration yet, which means he's under team control through 2015. Whether it's in the bullpen or rotation, Duensing should be around to help turn it around.
    RP Jared Burton - Burton has been a rarity for the Twins - a guy signed to a minor league deal and turned out to be a gem. Could he get a long-term deal?
     
    Others - that the jury is out on - but could be part of the solution...
     
    SS Brian Dozier - Long-term, I view him as a utility guy, but definitely someone that has impressed in his short time in the bigs.
    1B Chris Parmelee - Showed signs in September, but should probably be given more time to develop in AAA.
    LSP Scott Diamond - Let's not make too much out of last night's game, but he'll be given every opportunity to stick.
  17. Jeremy Nygaard
    This article was orignially posted at ManCenter.com
     
    ------
     
    Initially my plan was to continue the series with a preview of the Midwest. While the Twins do a pretty good job of locating and selecting talent from this area, it doesn't appear that there are a ton of top prospects from the area. So I'm pushing that preview back.
     
    Instead I'm going to highlight a place that has been a great place to infuse talent into the Twins system: Puerto Rico.
     
    In 2007, the Twins jumped on "toolsy OF" Angel Morales, though his hit tool was questioned. He appeared to be CF-ready and the Twins plucked him in Round 3, after being projected to go between Rounds 2-4.
     
    The next year, 2008, the Twins took Danny Ortiz in the 4th round. (Round 3-5 projection.) Ortiz was an advanced hitter with defensive questions. He was recently promoted to Ft. Myers, but has never been considered one of the Twins top prospects. (I think he's a good "sleeper" prospect though.)
     
    The Twins missed out in 2009, but got back into it in 2010 with Eddie Rosario in the 4th round. Rosario was an also an advanced hitter, but profiled similar to Ortiz. He exceeded expectations both offensively and defensively and was recently moved to 2B and ranks as one of the top prospects in the system.
     
    Why is this important? Because the Twins have done a great job of locating - and getting - the talent on this island. We should expect to see something similar in 2012.
     
    Carlos Correa, SS - Tall, skinny and projects to hit for power, Correa will probably settle at 3B. If he was plugged into the Twins system, he would have to play his way off SS and would have a higher ceiling than everyone not named Miguel Sano. He remains the least-discussed candidate to go 2nd overall.
     
    Jesmuel Valentin-Diaz, SS - Son of former major-league Jose Valentin. Switch-hitter who should be able to stay at SS. Could (and should) be a target for the Twins in the sandwich or 2nd round (especially if they take a P at #2). Could fall due to signability issues.
     
    The Twins haven't experienced the same success (or had the same volume), when it comes to pitchers, but a few stand out.
     
    Jose Orlando Berrios, RHP - Berrios has become the #1 pitching prospect on the island. Every time he pitches, his stock rises. He is in the mid-90s, deceptive, and already has a solid curveball and change-up. It wouldn't shock me if he ends up in the middle of the 1st round.
     
    Edwin Diaz, RHP - Already 6-3, but a very skinny 170. His smooth delivery is producing fastballs in the mid-90s.
     
    It's worth noting that while the hitters have committed to college, neither of the pitchers have (which could be a factor when it comes to signing).
     
    While these are the four most notable names from Puerto Rico that Twins have also taken players later in the draft.
     
    Baseball America had a write up on the Excellence Tournament that is currently going on in Puerto Rico and, to no one's surprise, these four players are mentioned prominently.
  19. Jeremy Nygaard
    Random thought based on two games...
     
    HITTERS
    *Miguel Sano has a long way to do. His bat's not ready. His glove's not ready. His head's not ready. Physically, he's a beast. He got one hit (a sharp grounder that slid under the third baseman's glove) in seven at bats. He struck out twice and looked susceptible to any ball that doesn't spin straight. He has time - and should be allowed it - to get that part of his game figured out. He did hit two flyballs that looked pretty routine, but ended up caught on the warning track. With the wind blowing in. Hard. Defensively, he shows flashes but also made a few routine mistakes - dropping a ball in a rundown, throwing to the wrong base to set up the rundown, failing to field a pretty routine grounder. He did some things well though too: fielding a weak roller to nail the runner at first, showing off his cannon arm.
     
    *Eddie Rosario was 2-8 with a 2B and a 3B. He made a boneheaded move on the triple when the ball skipped past the 3B and was thrown out easily at home, for the first out of the inning. He gets his bat through the zone in a hurry. Defensively, he was solid. He made a good turn on a double-play. If I didn't know better, I'd say he's been playing there his whole life.
     
    *JD Williams is fast. He DH'd and pinch ran, so I didn't get to see him in the field. But it was obvious the two times he reached base - an easy stolen base and, today before scoring the winning run, beating the throw to 3rd on a nearly-botched sacrifice. He's not Billy Hamilton-fast, but he's in the same category as Ben Revere.
     
    *Daniel Ortiz is a good hitter. His opposite field home run was impressive.
     
    *Tyler Grimes is a mess at shortstop. I hope he figures it out, his arm is stronger than Sano's.
     
    *AJ Pettersen reminds me of Nick Punto. He battled in all of his at-bats and always seems to come out ahead. He's not a big guy, but I'm not going to count him out.
     
    *Matt Koch hit the ball more squarely than any other Snapper this weekend. He only played Saturday, but the crack of the bat on the ball makes you look up if you're not paying attention.
     
    PITCHERS
    *Steven Gruver had a rough outing on Saturday. He didn't make it out of the 2nd and it looked like he was serving up batting practice. He seems to have a hard time consistently keeping the ball down.
     
    *AJ Achter looked good in relief. He abandoned runners and struck a few out. I wouldn't be surprised if he was back in the rotation sometime this year, but again, he's excelled in relief, so maybe he stays there.
     
    *Tim Shibuya was phenomenal. He pounded the lower half of the zone getting called strikes, but also missing bats. He seemed to tire towards the end of his outing, but he struck out 11 and was basically unhittable for five innings. If he continues to pitch like this, I would imagine he'll head to Fort Myers shortly.
     
    *Michael Tonkin was better than his stats show. He broke the only two bats I saw broken on consecutive batters. One reaching on a bleeding grounder and the other hitting a ball to Sano that he just failed to field. So while the "blown save" and 3 hits doesn't look great, he'll continue to be a go-to-guy in the bullpen.
     
    *Corey Williams came in a earned the win with a solid night. The lone hit he allowed actually hit Adam Bryant in the glove. He did fire a very wild pitch to the backstop. (I'll have more on him in the Adopt-A-Prospect forum later.)
     
    OTHER TID-BITS
    *Tom Kelly and Jim Rantz were sitting behind the plate. I don't know how Kelly sits still in the booth, he paced back and forth all game. He was mostly encouraging the hitters and pitchers, but got on Sano a little bit when he was misaligned and showed his frustration on Rosario's baserunning gaffe.
     
    *Big thanks to Chrissy Scaffidi for helping me set up an interview with Corey Williams. I know she's busy with the Snappers and their site, but maybe we can talk her into contributing more to this site.
     
    *If you head down, pick a time when it's not so stinking cold. It wasn't only cold, but windy too. But it was still fun to watch some future Twins.
  20. Jeremy Nygaard
    Clete Thomas joined a long list of guys that the Twins drafted at one point, didn't/couldn't sign and joined the organization later. Some other names that are on this list are Steve Pearce, who was cut in Spring Training, and Michael Holliman, who made a push to be on the opening day roster and is now in Rochester.
     
    There are other players who left the state of Minnesota at some point, only to come back later, like Cole Nelson, who left the state to attend Auburn, but was acquired by the Twins from the Tigers in the Delmon Young trade.
     
    There are also countless of examples of guys who the Twins drafted twice, some of them never signing, most of them fizzling out before making a name for themselves.
     
    All of this got me wondering, "Who are the guys out there right now that the Twins once had their eye on?" There are some very interesting names on the following list:
     
    [TABLE=width: 851]


    ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
    Hi A (2011)
    Chris Odegaard
    RHP
    Minnesota State-Mankato
    MN
    [/TD]


    ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
    AA
    Dan Kaczrowski
    SS
    Hamline (Minn.)
    MN



    ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
    Hi A
    Jonathan Griffin
    1B
    Lakewood Ranch HS, Bradenton, Fla.
    FL
    2011 21st Rd


    ATLANTA BRAVES
    Hi A
    Cody Martin
    RHP
    Gonzaga
    WA
    2011 7th Rd


    ATLANTA BRAVES
    Rk (2011)
    Evan Danieli
    RHP
    Seton Hall Prep, West Orange, N.J.
    NJ
    2010 24th Rd


    ATLANTA BRAVES
    A
    Joe Lucas
    RHP
    Dakota County Tech (Minn.) JC
    MN



    ATLANTA BRAVES
    A (2011)
    Tony Mueller
    OF
    Winona State (Minn.)
    MN



    BALTIMORE ORIOLES
    Hi A
    Aaron Baker
    C
    Denton (Texas) HS
    TX
    2009 11th Rd


    CHICAGO WHITE SOX
    AAA
    Charles Leesman
    LHP
    Elder HS, Cincinnati
    OH
    2008 11th Rd


    CHICAGO WHITE SOX
    Hi A
    Jake Petricka
    RHP
    Faribault (Minn.) HS
    MN



    CHICAGO WHITE SOX
    AA
    Jared Mitchell
    OF
    Westgate HS, New Iberia, La.
    LA
    2009 1st Rd


    CHICAGO CUBS
    AA
    Elliot Soto
    SS
    Dundee-Crown HS, Carpentersville, Ill.
    IL
    2010 15th Rd


    CHICAGO CUBS
    AAA (2011)
    Marquez Smith
    3B
    Forest HS, Ocala, Fla.
    FL
    2007 8th Rd


    CINCINNATI REDS
    A
    Nick O'Shea
    1B
    Minnesota
    MN



    CLEVELAND INDIANS
    A
    Jordan Smith
    3B
    St. Cloud State (Minn.)
    MN



    CLEVELAND INDIANS
    A (2011)
    Nathan Striz
    RHP
    Santa Fe Catholic HS, Lakeland, Fla.
    FL
    2010 22nd Rd


    COLORADO ROCKIES
    Rk (2011)
    Ben Hughes
    RHP
    St. Olaf (Minn.)
    MN
    2011 10th Rd


    COLORADO ROCKIES

    Tyler Anderson
    LHP
    Valley HS, Las Vegas
    Nev.
    2011 1st Rd


    DETROIT TIGERS
    MLB
    Andy Oliver
    LHP
    Vermillion (Ohio) HS
    OH
    2009 2nd Rd


    DETROIT TIGERS
    Rk (2011)
    Scott Matyas
    RHP
    Minnesota
    MN



    HOUSTON ASTROS
    Hi A
    George Springer
    OF
    Old Farms HS, Avon, Conn.
    CO
    2011 1st Rd


    HOUSTON ASTROS
    A
    Justin Gominsky
    OF
    Minnesota
    MN



    HOUSTON ASTROS
    AAA
    Mickey Storey
    RHP
    Florida Atlantic
    FL
    2008 31st Rd


    HOUSTON ASTROS
    A
    Mike Kvasnicka
    3B/C
    North HS, Lakeville, Minn.
    MN
    2010 1st Rd


    KANSAS CITY ROYALS
    A
    Mike Giovenco
    RHP
    North Park (Ill.)
    IL
    2010 4th Rd


    LOS ANGELES ANGELS
    AA (2011)
    Dillon Baird
    3B
    Prescott (Ariz.) HS
    AZ
    2009 11th Rd


    LOS ANGELES DODGERS
    A (2011)
    Blake Dean
    OF
    Louisiana State
    LA
    2010 8th Rd


    MIAMI MARLINS
    A
    Aaron Senne
    OF
    Missouri (drafted rd 13 out of HS)
    MO
    2010 10th Rd


    MIAMI MARLINS
    A
    Adam Conley
    LHP
    Olympia (Wash.) HS
    WA
    2011 2nd Rd


    MIAMI MARLINS
    Rk (2011)
    Beau Wright
    LHP
    Los Alamitos (Calif.) HS
    CA
    2010 48th Rd


    MIAMI MARLINS
    MLB
    Brad Hand
    LHP
    Chaska (Minn.) HS
    MN



    MIAMI MARLINS
    A
    Josh Adams
    SS
    Eagle's View Academy, Jacksonville, Fla.
    FL
    2011 13th Rd


    MILWAUKEE BREWERS
    A
    Tommy Toledo
    RHP
    Florida
    Fla.
    2011 11th Rd


    NEW YORK METS
    Hi A
    Brant Rustich
    RHP
    Grossmont HS, San Diego
    CA
    2007 2nd Rd


    NEW YORK METS
    Lo A (2011)
    Bret Mitchell
    RHP
    Minnesota State-Mankato
    MN



    OAKLAND A'S
    AA
    Mike Spina
    1B
    Cincinnati
    OH
    2009 11th Rd


    OAKLAND A'S
    Rk (2011)
    Thomas Girdwood
    RHP
    Elon
    N.C.
    2011 28th Rd


    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
    MLB
    Ken Herndon
    RHP
    Gulf Coast (Fla.) CC
    FL
    2006 5th Rd


    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
    A
    Mario Hollands
    LHP
    UC Santa Barbara
    CA
    2010 10th Rd


    SAN DIEGO PADRES
    Hi A
    Adam Schrader
    RHP
    Southwest Minnesota State
    MN



    SAN DIEGO PADRES
    Hi A (2011)
    Robert Lara
    C
    Nova HS, Davie, Fla.
    FL
    2008 19th Rd


    SAN DIEGO PADRES
    MLB
    Yonder Alonso
    1B
    Coral Gables HS, Miami
    FL
    2008 1st Rd


    SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
    AA
    Chris Heston
    RHP
    Seminole (Fla.) CC
    FL
    2009 12th Rd


    SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
    Hi A
    Seth Rosin
    RHP
    Mounds View HS
    MN
    2010 4th Rd


    SEATTLE MARINERS
    Hi A
    Steve Proscia
    3B /1B
    Don Bosco Prep, Ramsey, N.J.
    N.J.
    2011 7th Rd


    ST LOUIS CARDINALS
    AA
    Kolten Wong
    2B
    Kamehameha HS, Hilo, Hawaii
    HA
    2011 1st Rd


    TAMPA BAY RAYS
    AAA
    John Gaub
    LHP
    Minnesota
    MN


    [TD]TORONTO BLUE JAYS

    Hi A
    John Stilson
    RHP
    Texarkana (Texas) CC
    TX
    2011 3rd Rd


    TORONTO BLUE JAYS
    AAA (2011)
    Randy Boone
    RHP
    Texas
    TX
    2007 7th Rd


    WASHINGTON NATIONALS
    A
    Aaron Barrett
    RHP
    Wabash Valley (Ill.) CC
    IL
    2010 10th Rd


    WASHINGTON NATIONALS
    AA
    Mike Ballard
    LHP
    U. of Virginia
    VA
    2006 14th Rd


    WASHINGTON NATIONALS
    AA
    Pat Lehman
    RHP
    George Washington
    D.C.
    2009 13th Rd
    [/TABLE]
  21. Jeremy Nygaard
    For a random Saturday in April, there sure was an awful lot that seemed to happen. Most of these topics have been touched on at Twins Daily, but I'm just going to (briefly) condense them.
     
    This morning we learned that OF Darin Mastroianni was promoted from New Britain to Rochester. Not exactly headline news, but Twins news nonetheless.
     
    Before today's game against Rangers P Yu Darvish (news in itself), the Twins unveiled a statue outside of Gate 14 of Kent Hrbek.
     
    During today's game, in which the Twins left what seem like a hundred runners on base, we learned that the Twins were awarded a waiver claim on former Tiger OF Clete Thomas.
     
    To make room for Thomas on the 40-man, Scott Baker was transferred to the 60-day DL. Speculation then began on how room would be created on the 25-man roster.
     
    (I also started a forum thread about the potential addition of RHRP Rich Thompson. I would claim him. DFA Nishi - who will clear waivers - and option Burnett. Easy calls.)
     
    Starting P Nick Blackburn left his start in the 6th inning due to a shoulder injury. He had been pitching pretty well and it seems that his shoulder is going to be okay after preliminary reports are that there is "no structural damage".
     
    Ben Revere was optioned to Rochester to make room for Clete Thomas and now we wonder how Rochester makes room on their roster for Revere. (Assuming that Revere and Benson play LF and CF, and Matt Carson continues to play RF, that squeezes time for Brian Dinkelman and the aforementioned Darin Mastroianni. Both can also play 2B, so maybe Nishi's time gets squeezed too... who knows?)
     
    Potential Twin Draftee Kyle Zimmer (P, San Francisco) pitched against Loyola Marymount in front of Twins scouts and wasn't great (7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 5 K... or something like that).
     
    Whew. Did I miss anything? Let's hope tomorrow's news instead goes something like this:
     
    Twins win.
  22. Jeremy Nygaard
    Though I’ve never been a huge “autograph-hound”, I have enjoyed hanging around the “Down on the Farm” section at TwinsFest. I do that mostly to get a chance to converse with the players, but I also usually get a ball or 8x10 signed as well. As I started to find 8x10 photos of players online and at TwinsFest, I figured it would be worth a shot to send them down to Spring Training and see what happened.
     
    I thought I’d start a list and share it; maybe it will help some of you who are interested. Please share your stories as well.
     
    Sent out on February 27th (8x10 photo unless noted):
    Brian Dozier
     
    Sent out on March 7th (8x10 photo unless noted):
    Dan Gladden (World Series Sports Illustrated)
     
    Unsent:
    Kyle Gibson (photo with Gibson; plan to send to Ft. Myers during rehab)
    Kent Hrbek (plan to send to Target Field)
    Francisco Liriano (have heard he doesn’t sign)
    Jim Thome (plan to send to Phillies complex)
     
    Previously successful:
    Niko Goodrum (sent 3/7; received 3/17, outer plastic was signed, I'll give him a pass; he's still learning.)
    Max Kepler (sent 3/7; received 3/17)
    Eddie Rosario (sent 3/7; received 3/17)
    Miguel Sano (sent 3/7; received 3/17)
    Denard Span (photo of myself with Span taken at TwinsFest; sent 3/7, received 3/15 personalized with note, "Jeremy, I'm definitely better looking than you! :)" Funny stuff!)
    Oswaldo Arcia (sent 2/27; received 3/10)
    Chris Herrmann (sent 2/27; received 3/10)
    Chris Parmelee (sent 2/27; received 3/10)
    Tom Kelly
    Jason Kubel (playoff scorecard)
    Pat Neshek
    Angel Morales
     
    Joe Mauer (returned, unsigned with a small card)
     
    Successes in person:
    Aaron Hicks (game ball in Beloit)
    Dan Osterbrock (ticket stub after no-hitter in Beloit)
     
    Previously unsuccessful:
    Rod Carew
  23. Jeremy Nygaard

    Roster Bookkeeping

    By Jeremy Nygaard,

    Not that it matters right now, but…
     
    It’s always nice to know what you’re going to be dealing with going into next offseason. And although teams might say the service clock doesn’t matter… we all know that it does.
     
    The Twins have 5 pending Free Agents: C Ryan Doumit, SP Carl Pavano, LSP Francisco Liriano, SP Jason Marquis and recently injured RP Joel Zumaya.
     
    The Twins have options on 2 players next offseason: SP Scott Baker ($9.25m team option or free agency) and RP Matt Capps ($6m team option or $250,000 buyout, free agency and no draft pick compensation).
     
    As of today, the Twins will have 4 players arbitration eligible: 2B Alexi Casilla (3rd and final time), LRP Glen Perkins (3rd and final time), LP Brian Duensing (1st time), C Drew Butera (1st time*)
     
    With the new CBA, it’s is possible that 3B Danny Valencia reaches Super-2 status. While the team control wouldn’t change, it would allow Valencia to go through the arbitration process four times.
     
    RP Alex Burnett will likely be a Super-2 if he spends all year in the majors. However, if he spends less than 46 days in the majors, the team would gain an additional year of control (through 2017).
     
    *Butera is in an interesting position. He has exactly 2 years of service time. He is under team control through the 2015 season. If he were to spend 10 or more days in the minor leagues, it would give the team another year of control. If that were to happen, he would have less than 3 years of service time, but would still be a Super-2.
     
    SP Nick Blackburn – the only starting pitcher under contract and team control through 2013 – could be under team control for an additional year if he spends 27 days in the minor leagues this season. Blackburn could be optioned at any point before September 7th. After that, he could refuse the assignment. (This would make for an interesting case because the Twins would then have the choice of paying him the $8m for 2014 or taking him to arbitration.)
     
    OF Joe Benson and 1B Chris Parmelee are both under team control through 2018. However, if either are brought up on May 10th or before and never get sent back down, the team would lose a year of control.
     
    Minor leaguers who would need to be added to the 40-man in November to avoid the Rule V draft:
    INF Brian Dozier, C/OF Chris Herrmann, OF Aaron Hicks, SP Kyle Gibson, SP Adrian Salcedo as well as TwinsDaily’s own registered users/contributors LRP Tony Davis and RP Dakota Watts among others.
  24. Jeremy Nygaard
    If you're at all looking forward to the June Rule IV baseball draft as a Twins fans, there is no doubt that you're already familiar with a handful of names: Appel, Giolito, Buxton, Zunino, and most recently, Zimmer.
     
    If you're a fan of following the Twins draft at all, there are some terms you're probably familiar with: "strike-thrower", "long and lean", "wiry/athletic" or (my personal favorite Gardyism) "a grinder".
     
    You're always going to find draft picks that are breaks from the normal "that's-what-I'd-expect-from-the-Twins"-type draft picks. But there is always going to be a lot of draft picks where you read a scouting report and think, "Wow, he sounds like someone the Twins would draft." Or the one I think the most, "Isn't there enough 'toolsy outfielders' in the system." The Twins are also bound to draft that guy that "profiles similar to Glen Perkins." Why? Because these are "Twins-type guys".
     
    Let's get started with a quick run through the Northeast part of the United States. I'm starting here because in 2009 I became enamored with a "toolsy outfielder" from a little town in New Jersey who had his senior season basically wiped out because of rain. He was a guy I liked more and more every time I read anything about him, yet someone that wasn't gaining a lot of helium because he wasn't playing as much as your typical prospect. The Twins passed on him at 22 to take Kyle Gibson (which I was thrilled about) and the Angels ended up taking him at 25. Him being Mike Trout. And the Angels being more thrilled than anyone.
     
    I believed at the time - and still do - that the Northeast, while not a hotbed for talent, is a great place for the Twins to look for it, simply because there is no "how he's going to adjust to playing in the cold?" projection.
     
    The other thing that stands out to me is that the scouting for this area is handled by John Wilson. With 2011 serving as an exception, the last handful of years have been heavy with picks from this region - high picks, late signs - which shows how much Wilson's opinion is valued.
     
    Five college names to watch:
    “The Re-draft”
    Pat Light, P, Monmouth. Light was discussed more at length a couple of weeks ago. We know the Twins like him because they drafted him out of high school.
     
    “The Stony Brook Guys”
    If you’re asking, “Why Stony Brook?” you must not know its Joe Nathan’s alma mater. And although they didn’t draft him, the fact that he was so good for the Twins doesn’t hurt.
    Travis Jankowski, OF, Stony Brook: I was extremely high on Brandon Nimmo last June. Jankowski is this year’s college version of Nimmo. “Long and lean”, “athletic”, “football background” are all “Twins ways” to describe this true center fielder. Jankowski has four solid tools (only missing power), but all the tools the Twins typically look for. Another thing the Twins would love – he led the wood-bat Cape Cod League in triples last summer. He’d be a perfect fit in the sandwich round for a team looking for a “toolsy outfielder.”
     
    Pat Cantwell, C, Stony Brook: Look at this picture and tell me he doesn’t look like somebody the Twins would like. Cantwell was drafted by the Orioles in the 39th round last year, but elected to return for his senior season. So the Twins could get a “grinder” on the cheap. Sign this guy up. Seeing the one picture was enough for me.
     
    Other names to remember
    Mike LeBel, SS/P, Rhode Island: Another senior, but this one went undrafted last year. LeBel, who’s been a really good shortstop at URI, is coming off a solid showing in the Cape where he was clocked at 93mph off the mound. He’s yet to pitch in a game – where he’s expected to close – but he has been swinging a hot bat and blogging, of course. Pavano could help him with the ‘stache too.
     
    Kyle Hansen, P, St. John's: A big righty (6’ 8”) who has that “workhorse” body. Although he currently struggles with command, he could still fill out, add velocity and become a innings-eater. If not, he could prove to be a valuable bullpen asset with a mid-90mph fastball.
     
    Next up on the tour will be the Midwest.
     
    Jeremy Nygaard is the co-founder of ManCenter.com.
  25. Jeremy Nygaard
    Last week, I examined some trends the team has exhibited while drafting. This week, I’m going to look at the construction of both the MLB and AAA rosters.
     
    Many people like to “project” what they think the Opening Day roster will look like. I’m no different. However, I’m also going to consider how past rosters have been put together coming out of the spring – at least at the highest two levels – to make an educated guess at what players, especially those currently in big league camp, will need to have a good spring to stick around in the Twins organization.
     
    Every fall, at the conclusion of the season, I try to project where I think guys will start the next year. It is pretty typical to for the organization to have around 225 total players. Or if you’d prefer to look at it as 200 minor leaguers, that works too. Last year, the Twins released between 15-20 players in the spring. This year, I think it’s a fair belief to think that number inflates to the 25-30 player range. Currently, I have the organization at 250 players, but by no means do I believe that to absolutely accurate. I do think its pretty close though.
     
    We’re going to take a position-by-position look and see which players are fighting for their organizational lives – not only at the higher levels, but also some of the lower level guys on the “organizational roster bubble”.
     
    We’re going to try and fit these guys on the MLB (25-man) and AAA (24-man) rosters, but the disabled list provides for a little bit of wiggle room. So while the target is 49, we’re going to end up with a number a little bit more than that.
     
    CATCHERS
    Background: I was actually very shocked when I realized the Twins have released or not brought back seven catchers from this time last season. They’ve also converted a few (now pitchers) while only adding one through the draft and two through free agency. They still have 18 from Rookie ball up, so there will be some competition to stay on the roster, though the pre-season exodus of the four catchers we saw last year will not be repeated.
     
    MLB: Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera. I don’t think there is a lot of mystery here. Butera, having two options left, provides the club with some flexibility if they choose to use it.
     
    That still leaves five catchers in camp and I believe they will be split between AA and AAA.
     
    AAA: Danny Lehmann, J.R. Towles and Rene Rivera.
     
    Chris Herrmann, and his ability to catch and play outfield, could play his way into the AAA conversation, but I believe he starts in New Britain. Dan Rohlfing, who has half a season of AA experience, will likely join him there.
     
    Roster Bubble: If Herrmann starts the season at AAA (which is possible), either Rivera or Towles will have to go. Towles is expected to push Butera for the 3rd catching spot in Minnesota, so I think that puts Rene Rivera on the organization roster bubble. That would leave two catchers per level, but also six in Extended Spring, which may be too many (especially after adding a few in the draft) once the short seasons start. I think that leaves players such as Jairo Rodriguez and Matt Parker on the roster bubble as well.
     
    FIRST BASEMEN
    Background: As recently as 2009, it appeared that there wouldn’t be a need at first base for the foreseeable future. Well, a few blows to the head of the MVP first baseman plus an avoidance to the position in the draft equals an organizational weakness.
     
    MLB: Justin Morneau. I really believe that when Morneau isn’t the first baseman, Joe Mauer will be. Rotate the M&M boys and Doumit through the C, 1B and DH positions, pray for no injuries (would that be a miracle?!) and hope for the best.
     
    I actually really like the depth at this position with what remains in camp.
     
    AAA: Chris Parmelee, Aaron Bates and Steve Pearce. In an ideal world, there would be no need to keep three first basemen on the AAA roster when one is a prospect who will need to play every day. The fact that Parmelee and Pearce could both steal some innings in the OF allows for a little flexibility; however, the long and the short of it is that the Twins need to have backup options lined up in case there is an big-time, big-league emergency.
     
    Roster Bubble: Adding Indi-baller Chris Colabello to the mix likely means a Collabello vs Nate Hanson roster battle in AA. There is also a Kennys Vargas-sized hole in the lower levels while he finishes up his suspension. That will force the Twins to get creative in their roster shaping in Beloit when the team breaks camp.
     
    MIDDLE INFIELDERS
    Background: These positions are dysfunctional enough that they have to be lumped together. I think that sums it up nicely.
     
    MLB: Jamey Carroll, Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Hughes will probably see time at every infield spot besides shortstop. Nishioka could be sent down, but that would inhibit the ability to get good looks at guys that might actual be able to help.
     
    AAA: Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Ray Chang and Michael Holliman. Dozier has 350 plate appearances above A-ball, but will be given every shot to be the everyday SS in Rochester.
     
    Roster Bubble: Is there room on the Rochester roster for Ray Chang and Mike Holliman? I think Chang will stick, but Holliman, who would have never made it through the year last year if not for all the injuries, is definitely on the roster bubble. Chris Cates, the shortest player in professional baseball, also will need a good spring.
     
    THIRD BASEMEN
    Background: The future of 3B will be debuting in Beloit this year.
     
    MLB: Danny Valencia. Last year, there was no disputing that Valencia would be the starting 3B. But after the sophomore slump, there may be a little doubt. Luke Hughes will probably get some starts and don’t sleep on Sean Burroughs.
     
    I think the best thing for Valencia is to know that he’s being pushed. That will keep Burroughs in AAA and a phone call away.
     
    AAA: Burroughs. Ray Chang also brings some experience at 3B to the roster.
     
    Roster Bubble: While there isn’t anyone high on the prospect radar until you get to Miguel Sano, there still are a number of third basemen on the roster. I would think it’s fair to say that Reggie Williams, Andrew Leer and Roy Larson are on the roster bubble.
     
    OUTFIELDERS
    Background: Even with the loss of Kubel and Cuddy, this is still the deepest position in the organization. There are eleven in big league camp and another that is in the mix for Rochester’s roster.
     
    MLB: Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe.
     
    As much as I would like to see Revere get some substantial time at AAA, it appears he’ll be the almost-everyday left fielder. Plouffe will be the 4th OF and potential corner infielder.
     
    In my opinion, the AAA (and AA) outfield is going to be the most interesting storyline in the shaping of the rosters this spring.
     
    AAA: Rene Tosoni, Dustin Martin, Brian Dinkelman. Darrin Mastroianni, Matt Carson, Wilkin Ramirez are all in the mix, as is Joe Benson, who for now, I project to start at AA.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia will be a future starter, but will probably start the year in Fort Myers.
     
    Roster Bubble: I really consider Martin, Dinkelman, Mastroianni, Carson and Ramirez all on the bubble. There are two (maybe three) spots for these five guys. If Benson starts at Rochester, now you’re talking about one spot. I like Dinkleman because of his versatility. I am also intrigued by Ramirez, who is still relatively young. Further down the line guys like Mark Dolenc, Wang-Wei Lin, Jonathan Goncalves, Kelvin Mention and Drew Leachman could all find themselves in the roster crunch.
     
    We’re going to look at pitchers a little bit differently…
     
    STARTING PITCHERS
    Background: Last year was a terrible year for the starting pitchers and right now, 80% of the projected rotation is coming into a contract year (three FAs and an option). To make matters worse, there isn’t a lot of help on the horizon.
     
    MLB: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Jason Marquis, Nick Blackburn. Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak could be stretched out, if needed.
     
    AAA: Liam Hendriks and Scott Diamond are the only two I’m ready to pencil in right now.
     
    RELIEF PITCHERS
    Background: The Twins literally brought in a boat load of guys to see if they can help contribute to a bullpen that isn’t considered the worst in the league.
     
    MLB: Duensing, Swarzak, Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joel Zumaya. That leaves two spots.
     
    AAA: Carlos Gutierrez, Deolis Guerra, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros, Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson can also be penciled into the AAA bullpen.
     
    Doing some quick math, that leaves two major league spots and two to three AAA spots. Counting up the pitchers competing for these spots are 15 in big-league camp and up to nine guys in minor league camp. It doesn’t take a mathematician to know that getting from 24 to five will require some deep cutting. Chances are the Twins will stash a handful of guys on the disabled list, but we’ll still need to get rid of close to 15 guys.
     
    Alex Burnett will most likely make the big club. Terry Doyle, a Rule V acquisition remains likely to make a team. Daryl Thompson will likely have a spot in Rochester’s rotation.
     
    Roster Bubble:
    Everybody else is on the roster bubble, here’s my list in order of sticking in the organization:
    Phil Dumatrait – a familiar name, one of the few lefty options for the AAA bullpen.
    Jeff Gray – on the 40 and out of options, could be a good guy to have around.
    Jared Burton – has a shot to break camp with the big club.
    Jason Bulger – has a shot to break camp with the big club.
    Luke French – starter who will compete for a chance in Rochester’s rotation.
    Steven Hirschfield – will remain in the organization in AA.
    Brett Jacobson – will remain in the organization in AA.
    Cole Devries – will compete for a Rochester ‘pen spot; New Britain likely.
     
    On the outside looking in:
    Matt Maloney – on the 40 and out of options, could be a back of the bullpen-type guy.
    P.J. Walters – starter who will compete for a chance in Rochester’s rotation.
    Esmerling Vazquez – recently passed through waivers, doesn’t look good.
    Anthony Slama – fighting for a chance to make the Rochester bullpen.
    Sam Deduno – fighting for a chance to make the Rochester bullpen.
    Casey Fien – fighting for a chance to make the Rochester bullpen.
    Luis Perdomo – fighting for a chance to make the Rochester bullpen.
    Aaron Thompson – fighting for a chance to make the Rochester bullpen.
    Brendan Wise – fighting for a chance to make the Rochester bullpen.
    Brad Thompson – fighting for a chance to make the Rochester bullpen.
     
    Some other guys fighting the number squeeze: Spencer Steedley, Blake Martin, Michael Tarsi, Edgar Ibarra, Tobias Streich (converted C) and Jhonathan Arias (converted C)
     
    Summary: If you do that math, you’ll notice that we have 48 players on the MLB or AAA rosters before the list of eight pitchers I think will stick around. Take the three pitchers away I think will be at AA and we’re at 53. That allows for a little wiggle room. But overall I think it’s a pretty good snapshot.
     
    Next week we’re going to take a look at some college players who appear to be Twin-type guys.
     
    Jeremy Nygaard is the co-founder of ManCenter.com.
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