Jeremy Nygaard

Like Badsmerf said, there was an emphasis put on power arms... but also power hitters too. I would guess that the early season success of Melotakis and Duffey (if it continues) will cause the Twins to employ a similar strategy again this June. I don't have the exact numbers anymore, but the amount of innings pitched collegiately by the draftees last year was considerably less than the innings pitched by the guys drafted in 2012. Like 75% less. Pitchers arms are like running backs legs, you can only get so many miles (or innings) out of them in a lifetime (with some exceptions), the Twins have been burned by overused college guys (another reason Stewart could be a great pick). Manziel will be a redshirt-sophomore next year (so he could declare for the 2014 NFL Draft), but I agree - especially if he is taken very high - he'll go the baseball route. kab21, I'm with you. The 2nd tier is about six guys deep. Bonus demands will separate those guys as the draft approaches. It might come down to taking the guy who's scout is willing to bet his job on his guy. FYI - and obviously the crosscheckers/supervisors have input as well... Stewart's scout - Greg Runser, the signing scout for both Melotakis and Duffey. (Chargois as well.) (Runser has respectfully declined my overtures.) Meadows' scout - Jack Powell, the signing scout for both Buxton and Bard. Manaea's scout - Jeff Pohl

RockCats activate P BJ Hermsen RockCats release P Marty Popham

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1595-Draft-Board-v-3-0-(4-20)

The draft is now only six weeks away. Some things are starting to come into focus; other things are as cloudy as ever. A quick reminder: The Twins first pick (fourth overall) has a draft slot value of just around $4.5 million. The strategy that the Twins select the Best Player Available early in the draft remains true. The Twins will follow that strategy yet again this year. Though it should be pointed out – as I do each month – that the Twins very rarely deviate from the norm: In the last 20 years, the Twins have had 24 1st round draft picks (not counting supplemental picks). Of those 24 picks, 11 have been prep position players and eight have been college pitchers. The other two groups: college position players (4) and prep pitchers (1) have been much less represented. In the eyes of those in the front office, when the draft board is stacked, an emphasis is placed on two groups: prep position players and college pitchers. So while there may always be a debate about who is the BPA, the Twins will likely error on the side of one of those groups. Easy enough to follow, right? Typically, yes. This year, I don’t believe so. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3816[/ATTACH] I recently inquired about Kohl Stewart, a prep pitcher from Texas. The response I got from a Twins source read as follows: The answer is four. The first two have not been good. The last two, Jameson Taillon and Dylan Bundy, however, have been excellent. In addition to that, another prepster, Jose Fernandez has made his big-league debut despite being drafted after some college pitchers who are still in the minors. The second part of the text is what took me a little bit by surprise. The piecing together of this draft board just got more difficult… JEREMY’S SMALL BOARD (Keep in mind, please, that this is not a “mock draft”. This is not a reflection of my top players. This is my attempt at stacking a “Twins Draft Board”, based on a number of things.) 1) Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma (previous: 4) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: I don’t think the Twins have a discernible difference between the top two prospects on the board. And because of that, if given the choice between the two, it would be much easier to draft Gray. Gray turned down $500,000 a few years ago, and despite having the leverage to return to school for another year, Gray doesn’t have an agent (yet) that is out trying to break records and make points. (Chance Gray drops to Twins: .01%) 2) Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford (previous: 1) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: Appel could be in an Opening Day rotation as soon as 2014. If he lasted until the Twins picked at #4, he would help form quite the two-headed monster with Alex Meyer. Of course, the questions with Appel will always be attached to his price tag and his advisor, Scott Boras. There is some growing thought that getting anything over the $3.8 million that he turned down last year would prove Boras’ point and make Appel a winner. I still think that the Twins would have to borrow against the rest of their draft to get him under contract. But that is a risk I’d be willing to take, if given the opportunity. (Chance Appel drops to Twins: 5%) 3) Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS (previous: NR) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: Let me preface this by saying that there is a big gap after Gray and Appel. You could probably list six to eight names here and have an argument. When it comes down to it, the “upside” is what leads Stewart to this position. Equipped with a mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider, Stewart has top-of-the-rotation stuff. The Twins – and every other team in baseball – will need to do their homework, though. Stewart is also a stud QB (and committed to Texas A&M) who’s price tag may determine where he gets drafted. There have already been reports that the Astros are sniffing around the local (to Houston) product with thoughts of popping him 1-1, much the same as they did last year in drafting Carlos Correa. (Chance Stewart drops to Twins: 85%) 4) Austin Meadows, OF, Georgia HS (previous: 8) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: While I prefer the flair of Clint Frazier, the Twins apparently have Meadows, the “more complete package”, rated higher. Meadows is younger (still 17) and, in comparing the two, has favor in all the “Twins Typical” categories: better defender, better baseball-feel, better hit-instincts, better base-runner. The feel I get about Meadows is that he would fit perfectly (eventually) in left field. A .300-type hitter with power and speed might make Twins fans go crazy for the simple fact that he is what he is: ANOTHER TOOLSY OUTFIELDER! (Chance Meadows drops to Twins: 65%) 5) Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State (previous: 2) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: I’ve been a fan of Manaea since he dominated the Cape Cod League last summer. In his last four starts on that circuit, Manaea went 30 innings, allowed seven hits and one walk – that’s a WHIP of .267 – and struck out 47 (for a K/9 of 14.1). He was dialed up and dialed in, throwing in the high-90s. He hasn’t been the same guy since. In fact, if it weren’t for last summer, Manaea would be a “projectable lefty” going in the second half of the first round. Manaea really seems to labor when there are runners on base and, despite having the advantage of being a lefty, has a non-existent pickoff move. He’s much further away from the big leagues than either Gray or Appel, but that Cape Cod success carries a lot of weight with the Twins brass. Personally, I feel this is a “can’t-go-wrong” pick for the Twins and their fans, even though plenty of question marks surround him. (Chance Manaea drops to Twins: 60%) 6) Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina (previous: NR) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: Moran is arguably the top collegiate bat in all the draft. He shares a quality with the Twins most recently drafted collegiate hitter, Levi Michael, in that they both attended North Carolina. I have Moran ranked higher than Kris Bryant, because the likelihood (at least in the Twins eyes) is that, presumably, Moran has a better chance to stick at third. (If they wanted to draft a first baseman fourth overall, they’ll take California prep 1B Dominic Smith – which they won’t do.) (Chance Moran drops to Twins: 80%) 7) Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas (previous: 7) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: It’s plenty ironic that the prospect who has seen his stock fluctuate the most is the only player on this board who sits in the same position as he sat last month. Stanek still possesses both a very good fastball and slider, but hasn’t had the results (up until recently) to back up the hype. He’s had short outings where he’s thrown far too many pitches. And then he goes and blows away LSU, a team that may have the most potent offense in the NCAA. Although drafting Stanek would be an upset, it could pay huge dividends down the road. (Chance Stanek drops to Twins: 99%) 8) Kris Bryant, 3B, San Diego (previous: NR) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: Bryant ranks near the top of all power hitters in this draft. If he were in the Twins system, only Sano would have more raw power. Like Sano, there are many questions about where Bryant plays defensively. He won’t get a ringing endorsement from scouts that he can stay at 3B or handle RF, making him a 1B. Power was an emphasis last year – and may be again this year – and that could help the big right-hander’s chances of getting drafted by the Twins. (Chance Bryant drops to Twins: 65%) 9) Clint Frazier, OF, Georgia HS (previous: 3) WHY HE'S ON THE BOARD: Frazier may very well be gone by the time the Twins draft. Scouts are split on him and Meadows and both have a chance to go Colorado. It comes down to preference and the Twins prefer Meadows. (Chance Frazier drops to Twins: 65%) Other notes: OF Ryan Boldt, Red Wing HS, has been dealing with the same weather as the rest of us in the Midwest. He’s been holding workouts in the hockey rink. He did enough last summer, though, to prove that he’s a 1st rounder. While it would be neat for the Twins to draft him, they won’t be able to. P Logan Shore, Blaine HS, is the top prep pitcher in the state. He’s signed to play next year at Florida and may prove to be a difficult sign, unless he goes in the first couple of rounds. A guy that I mentioned as someone I liked in the last update, Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Tennessee HS, underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He will miss the remainder of his senior season and enroll in Vanderbilt in the fall. While it’s doubtful that he will sign, it wouldn’t shock me if a team took a flyer on him at some point in the draft as a Plan D fallback option. A name to remember is Tyler Palka, OF/1B, Georgia Tech. The Twins don’t typically draft a lot of first baseman, but they always seem to draft one. Palka has big-time power from the left-side of the plate. Another player with questions defensively, Palka is holding his own in the outfield, but will settle at first base. Palka would be a cheaper alternative to taking Moran or Bryant fourth overall. There will probably be one more installment in mid-to-late May before making minor changes up until the draft on June 6. Feel free to discuss. You can follow me on Twitter (@jeremynygaard) for draft updates.

Picky! Let me point out that unless he allowed the run without recording any more outs that he did lower it to 1.04 from whatever it was before that out.

Miguel Sano no longer has to be added to the 40-man roster after this season. Apparently, if you sign after the minor-league season (but before the Rule 5 draft), you get an extra evaluation year. It's pretty ridiculous if you ask me. Consider... Max Kepler signed in July of 2009. He is not eligible to pay in any games until the following season (has to do with not being 17 before the end of the minor league season). But his "evaluation clock" starts and he'll have to be added to the 40-man roster before the 5th Rule 5 draft he's be exposed to (which is November 2013). Miguel Sano signed after the conclusion of the minor-league season in 2009 (even though he wasn't eligible to play in it anyway) and because of that, his "evaluation clock" didn't start until the following season. Meaning he doesn't have to be added until November 2014. It's really another "rule" that puts foreign players at a disadvantage. College players (like Kyle Gibson) typically need to be added at age 25. High school players (like Aaron Hicks) typically need to be added at age 23. International guys (like Oswaldo Arcia) need to be added at age 21. That could either be fixed by giving them an extra evaluation year. Or, like baseball is doing, making it an industry where MLB tries to limit the amount of money spent there. I'd opt for option #1 personally. But maybe having an International Draft could help solve the problem too.

I linked his story in the article. Its a good read.

Tomorrow night, if all goes according to plan.

I may have shared this before, but I think it relates a ton to this conversation... Me to Twins scout, "Keith Law called (Braden) Shipley a Top 5 pick... thought that was interesting." His reply, "That's too high probably, our list rarely matches Keith's or Baseball America's." When the Twins come on the clock, they will have a player ranked higher than everyone else on their board. That's the guy they will take, without a doubt. (Now, they may stack their board based on needs, for example, last year the Twins felt they "needed" power arms. Those guys were higher on their boards.)

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1589-Twins-Minor-League-Report-Miracle-Keep-Crushing

First off, huge props to everybody involved in the investigation in Boston. An unfortunate event followed by an around-the-clock story, ending with very few fatalities. Those in Boston and the surrounding areas will finally be able to sleep peacefully tonight. Back to baseball.. The Twins are postponed again, making today their third consecutive off-day. Now I can understand postponing a baseball game for snow or sleet, but tonight’s forecast is “chilling and windy”. That’s a little ridiculous, in my opinion. It sounds like somebody in Chicago needs to clean the sand out of their you-know-whats. On a happier note, Joe Mauer turns 30 day. Aaron Gleeman turned 30 earlier this year and started watching Dawson’s Creek last night. If this is what happens at 30, Joe Mauer is going to be a waste of a lot of money for the next six years. I also am looking less forward than ever before to turning 30 next month. On another great note, Miguel Sano was named #1 on Baseball America’s Hot Sheet for this past week. He had an OPS of 1.221. There is currently some debate about when Sano needs to be added to the 40-man roster after this season. Although Sano signed before the Rule 5 draft in 2009, he won’t need to be added in the typical five-year window (this November) because he signed after the conclusion of the 2009 minor league season (by a day or two). As a result, the Twins have an extra evaluation year and will not be required to add him to the 40-man roster until November of 2014. Byron Buxton was an Honorable Mention (called “In the Team Photo”). Buck had an OPS of 1.056, but was caught stealing three times. (A 50% steal rate is far below acceptable for those with 80 speed.) Tim Wood’s rehab from a rotator cuff strain was transferred from Fort Myers to Rochester. It was initially reported that Wood was going on a 30-day rehab assignment, so it appears that he’ll be spending the next three or so weeks in Rochester’s bullpen before the Twins have to make a roster decision. Wood, who played in the Pittsburgh organization last year, was named Baseball America’s International League Relief Pitcher of the Year in 2012. B.J. Hermsen is on his way to New Britain to join the RockCats. He’s missed the first couple weeks of the season with an oblique injury. The “Voice of the Kernels” Morgan Hawk tweeted this afternoon that Jose Berrios will be making his season debut on Monday. So what happened on the field tonight? Let’s check it out… Fort Myers Miracle 14, St. Lucie Mets 2 Box Score Two days after losing its first game of the season, the Miracle have extended their second winning streak of the season to two games. The same day that Miguel Sano made headlines for his impressive stat line over the last week (he went hitless tonight with two Ks), his sidekick Eddie Rosario stole the spotlight. Rosario went 4-for-5 with a home run and four RBI to improve his batting average to .387. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3808[/ATTACH] For the second straight day, TwinsDaily’s A.J. Pettersen had three hits (including a leadoff home run tonight). He’s now batting a robust .366. He also drove in two runs. Michael Gonzales homered twice while Matt Koch and Kennys Vargas each homered as well. D.J. Baxendale lowered his ERA to 1.04 with seven innings of one-run work. He struck out four, walked zero and allowed four hits. Chad Rogers allowed a run in the 8th inning. Cole Johnson pitched a scoreless 9th inning. Tom Stuifbergen (1-0, 2.41) pitches for the Miracle tomorrow. Cedar Rapids Kernels 1, Peoria Chiefs 4 Box Score The Kernels dropped to 9-5 with their second straight loss. They are now a full-game behind the Carlos Correa-led Quad Cities River Bandits in Western Division of the Midwest League. The Kernels lone run came on a Byron Buxton opposite-field RBI triple to score Jairo Rodriguez and give the Kernels a 1-0 lead in the 4th. Hudson Boyd lost his first game of the season (now 1-1). He lasted into the fifth inning, recording one out before being lifted. He allowed four runs on seven hits. He walked three and struck out three. He tweeted after the game about pitching in the snow and his disdain for it (#NeverAgain). The reality, for Boyd, is that if he never pitches in snow again, his career will probably be qualified as a disappointment, with snow possible in New Britain, Rochester and Minneapolis. Tim Atherton allowed an inherited run and recorded four outs. David Hurlbut, who appears to be the odd-man out of the rotation (in favor of Berrios) finished the game with two scoreless innings. The Kernels had a chance in the ninth inning. DJ Hicks (single) and Travis Harrison (double) both reached base. Drew Leachman, who represented the tying run, grounded out to the first baseman to end the game. Mason Melotakis (1-1, 2.89) will take the ball tomorrow for the Kernels at 1pm. New Britain Rock Cats 1, Portland Sea Dogs 12 Box Score One night after dropping twenty-one hits and seventeen runs on Portland, while holding the Sea Dogs to one run on three hits, we saw roles reversed tonight. In tonight’s game, Portland scores 12 runs on fifteen hits. New Britain, on the hand, only mustered a single run on five hits. To make matters even weirder, the Rock Cats were shut down by Matt Barnes (6 IP, 5 H, R, 7 K, BB). The same Barnes who, only five days ago, got beat up by the Rock Cats to the tune of five runs in 2.1 IP. This baseball, it’s a funny game. Both Blake Martin and Marty Popham got beat up pretty bad tonight. Popham gave up six earned runs and only recorded one out. Danny Ortiz hit a solo home run. Logan Darnell (1-0, 1.17) will face Portland tomorrow afternoon at 1pm ET. Rochester Red Wings vs Pawtucket Red Sox – Postponed. The two teams will play a double-header on Sunday, beginning at 12:05. If you have any questions or comments, please post below. Or if you’re bored, engage me on Twitter @jeremynygaard. Draft Board v.3 coming this weekend!

Sano and Polanco were moved up on July 4. Sano played 20 games before moving to the GCL (who's season starts about a week after the draft) and played 41 there. The Twins won't be any more aggressive with Minier. Maybe 50/50 between the two leagues.

Yeah, that mindset makes sense, though I doubt the Twins add to this pool when they'll already be one of the bigger spenders in the draft. Having such a high pick last year (plus the rest of their picks plus International guys) cost the Twins almost $14 million. (They're not sniffing $10 million most years.) All of that spending might be one of the reasons that the team's payroll was reduced this season.

Very nice write-up. These two guys will be forever linked. I prefer the fiery competitor in Frazier, but last I checked, the Twins prefer Meadows. Neither has the ceiling that Buxton has, however, but it's entirely conceivable both of these guys are near the top of the Twins draft board.

Interesting thought, but it can't happen. International money can only be traded once free agency begins (July 2). In regards to that 37th pick, I believe they acquired it in a trade, and those picks can only be traded once. It may be possible to hold on to some of the int'l pool until next April, when they could maybe trade it for a comp. balance pick (only tradable during the season). I like where your head's at though.

One thing I neglected to mention, the pools in this "free agency" and the pools in the draft work the same, they aren't a "hard" slot. Meaning the Twins could split up their pool in whatever way they would like. (I posted this after reading the first of kab21's two paragraph's. After reading the second.. yes, he's exactly right. The Twins will definitely be in the mix for whoever they think is the most talented. Something not always possible before.)

Like Sano, Minier will probably start the year in the DSL, with a chance to make a late-season appearance in the GCL.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1585-International-Signing-Preview

Over the course of the last week or so, a lot of news regarding the International Signing Period has come out. Up until July of 2012, International Free Agency has been a free-for-all. In the 2010-11 period, the Mariners spent $6.47 million. Four teams spent $5 million or more. Five teams spent less than a million dollars. The Twins, middle-of-the-pack spenders, spent $2.54 million. The following spending period (July 2011 - June 2012) was the final opportunity for teams, under the old guidelines, to spend however they wanted. The Rangers spent a ridiculous $12.83 million. The Blue Jays spent $7.57 million. Two more teams (that typically spend more than the Twins), the Royals and Mariners both spent over $6 million. Only three teams spent less than a million dollars (the Dodgers, White Sox, Orioles and Nationals are teams that have limited their International budget recently), while the Twins stayed middle-of-the-pack again, spending $2.31 million. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3801[/ATTACH] Sano undergoing DNA testing in July of 2009 in an effort to prove his age and identity. The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia Finding accurate data going back much further is difficult, but it should be pointed out that Miguel Sano signed with the Twins for $3.15 million in September of 2009. That is clearly the exception and not the rule. It would be safe to say their budget is normally in the $2.5 million range; and while they won't "spend just to spend", they will open their pocketbooks for players they feel are worth it. So what's the big deal? Well, starting in the July 2012 - June 2013 period, all teams had $2.9 million to spend. It wasn't a "hard cap" per se, but there were penalties if you exceeded that amount. (The Rays, for example, exceeded their cap by so much they won't be able to sign anyone for over $250,000 in the 2013-14 signing class.) Final amounts won't be in until June, but Terry Ryan said in a radio interview earlier this winter that he "suspected" the Twins would use most, if not the entire amount. Let's fast-forward to July of this year. First off, let's hope there is no more snow on the ground. Secondly, let's talk about the changes that have happened (again) in regards to International spending. Ben Badler of Baseball America does a great job in a series of posts explaining exactly how it will all work. Matt Garrioch at minorleagueball.com examined the fairness of the "new spending pools". All are excellent reads if you're into it. Instead of giving you the overview on all of baseball, I'm going to break it down for you from the Twins perspective because, well, that's why you're here. As baseball pushes towards an International Draft, you'll see similarities between the International spending period and the Rule 4 draft. For starters, there are penalties for exceeding your pool. And starting this year, the worst teams are allowed the largest pools. The Twins have the 4th pick in the Rule 4 draft; they also are being afforded the fourth-largest spending pool in International Free Agency: $3,908,600. (This is done in an effort to steer the most sought-after amateurs to the teams with the most money - the worst teams.) Now, I referenced the Twins as not being a "spend-it-just-to-spend-it" team and also referred for their penchant to typically spend somewhere around $2.5 million. So what good does it do them to have nearly four million dollars? I'm glad you want to know, because here's the newest (and, for the Twins, probably most beneficial) wrinkle for signing International youngsters: the ability to trade portions of your signing pool. The Twins will enter July with five slots: #4 - $2,250,700 #34 - $450,400 #64 - $304,200 #94 - $203,300 Flat pool - $700,000 All teams have a standard 700K pool that they cannot trade, in addition to their four slots. Teams are limited to only adding 50% of their cap. So if the Twins were interested, they could add an additional $2 million to their signing pool through trades. A more likely scenario could see the Twins dealing some of their pool away. Badler suggests in this piece that the Twins could trade all but slot #4 and still have $3 million to spend. Here's a couple scenarios that might give you an idea of this could benefit the Twins: The Rangers currently have a pool just short of $2 million. They could add up to half of that to have a pool of $2.9 million (their limit this year, which they found a way to circumvent anyway). The Blue Jays, who have spent nearly $12 million over the last two years, have only $2.8 million to spend, but could get their pool up to $4.2 million through trades. If it's July and the Twins aren't in contention and the Rangers or Blue Jays come sniffing around Justin Morneau or Josh Willingham, this could give the Twins a chance to turn part of their pool (and money they probably wouldn't spend anyway) into a prospect. Or maybe it turns a prospect into a better prospect. Pretty good shake for the Twins, if you ask me. Obviously, July 2 is a long way off, but when the time comes, the Twins are going to have money to spend. The name that is already connected to the Twins is OF Micker Zapata. Zapata is a big (6-3, 225) outfielder currently training in the Dominican. Zapata, however, is a very unique commodity in the International class. The reason is that he was born in St. Thomas, grew up speaking English and will have that benefit as he tries to adjust to affiliated baseball (and probably play in the GCL at 17). The Twins place an emphasis on learning the language. They also, recently, have placed an emphasis on right-handed power. Zapata fits this bill perfectly. Zapata might be in line for a bonus in the $1.5-$1.75 range and the Twins are going to be one of the few teams in baseball with the cash to meet those demands. Despite early reports suggesting this international class isn't going to be a great one, it can only benefit the Twins to have assets available when assets are limited.