Jeremy Nygaard

I think that Jairo Rodriguez has been hanging on by a thread for a while now. I could see Garver or Turner heading to CR and when Butera gets sent down, Rodriguez goes away.

There are obviously tons of other variables. I wish I had all the data in front of me that the Twins probably have. But I would guess the Twins and prospects have at least some idea coming into the season how many innings guys are going to pitch, at least I hope they do.

And we haven't even got to enjoy the times when Sam Deduno is at his best: GAMES ON THE BIGGEST STAGE. He'll be making a tick over the league minimum next year, so I'll write him with (erasable) pen into the Twins rotation.

Kyle Davies up from Miracle to RockCats, probably to take Blackburn's spot in the rotation. They had a double-header so had spot-started B.J. Hermsen.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2116-If-We-Like-It-Then-We-Need-to-Put-a-Limit-On-It

At the time of the 2012 draft, a lot was made of the fact the Twins took a number of hard-throwing college relievers. Shortly after that, we found out the plan was to convert these pitchers into starters. As we approach the stretch-run, some of these “new” starting pitchers are heading into unchartered waters when it comes to innings. My curiosity got the best of me and I did a little research. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4906[/ATTACH] First, I looked at the 2011 draft class and all of those pitchers that became full-season starting pitchers in 2012. There were five: Madison Boer, Matthew Summers, Steven Gruver, Jason Wheeler and Tim Shibuya. In their finals years of college and first taste of pro ball, these five averaged 135.2 combined innings pitched. The outliers were Jason Wheeler, who didn’t pitch professionally, at 103 innings and Tim Shibuya, who pitched 73 2/3 innings for Elizabethton and totaled 184 combined. The other three all fell plus or minus 10 of the average. Let’s fast forward to their first full-seasons in pro ball: Tim Shibuya had shoulder issues which limited him to only 74 innings. (Could that have been a result of the heavy workload the previous year?) Steven Gruver shifted into a swing role and saw his innings drop by 10%. Matt Summers saw his workload increase by 8% and Madison Boer saw his increase by 11%. Jason Wheeler, who, again, didn’t pitch professionally in 2011, saw his innings increase by 52%. But if you figure that he would have gotten around the average of the other guys in E-Town (not considering the overworked Shibuya), it would have put his increase at around 20%. I also wanted to consider the most recent college-reliever-to-full-season-starter that I could remember: Carlos Gutierrez. Gutierrez pitched a combined 65 2/3 innings in 2008 before seeing his innings increase to 107 (+62%) in 2009 and 126 (+18%) in 2010 before, you guessed it, experiencing arm issues and a move back to the bullpen. Gutierrez was also a first-round pick and a more costly investment. You would think the Twins would have been a little more patient with an arm that had already underwent Tommy John surgery as a collegiate. Now let’s consider last year’s crop. There are four pitchers that fit the criteria: Mason Melotakis, Tyler Duffey, D.J. Baxendale and Taylor Rogers. The average of these four was much different: only 108.7 innings which includes Rogers, who pitched 152 2/3 combined innings, a total that is higher than every non-Shibuyan pitcher mentioned. Baxendale and Rogers average innings were actually around 140, which is close to the previous year’s study. So the assumption is that their increase would probably go up somewhere between 10% and 20%. That would put Baxendale at between 140 and 150 innings. (He’s at 101 2/3 as of today.) It would put Taylor Rogers somewhere between 170 and 180 innings. He’s only pitched 89 1/3 so far this year after spending some time on the disabled list. (Hmmm... see previous paragraph). The two that really stand out to me are Mason Melotakis and Tyler Duffery. Mason Melotakis has had a pretty good season starting for Cedar Rapids. But he’s eclipsed last season’s total (86) already and the team still has nearly 40 games to play (plus the playoffs). If Melotakis starts every sixth game for the rest of the season and pitches five innings each start, he’s looking at around 120 innings (which is a 40% increase). Not quite in the Gutierrez range, but definitely a large increase. Tyler Duffey, on the other hand, has already exceeded his total from last year by 52%. If Duffey were shut down today, his workload would be eerily similar to what the Twins did to Carlos Gutierrez. He has adjusted to High-A ball quite well after his promotion from Cedar Rapids, and the Miracle have qualified for the playoffs too. Continuing to trot him out there every five days could lead to issues down the line. How many more innings can you justify putting on his young arm? All pitchers are different. Some arms are simply more resilient, but when you have a guy who has exceeded expectations like Duffey has, when is it time to go all Stephen Strasburg on him and shut him down? If Duffey were to get to 120 innings in 2013 and increase to 150 in 2014, you can take the reins off of him in 2015. Maybe that’s being too cautious. If that’s even a real thing with pitchers today. What are your thoughts, should innings matter? How should the Twins be handling their pitchers at the lower levels?

Andrew reported that Bruce Pugh, who was pitching in New Britain, has been released. That makes room for Blake Martin, who was sent down from Rochester to make room for the addition of Nick Blackburn, who will start for Rochester tonight. Also, last week Corey Williams was DL'd in Fort Myers and Matt Tomshaw was activated.

I think there is a high probability that happens. I would think it has more to do with the innings some arms are accumulating. The Twins don't like their pitchers taking huge leaps in IP. And a lot of low level starters are a year removed from being college relievers. Guys like Peterson, Bixler and even Eades and Slegers could find themselves in Cedar Rapids by the end of the season.

Re: Molina - I had a chance to ask someone inside the org about Molina's struggles... "He said he's run into some tough luck, hard hit balls right at guys and all that. He will be fine."

Strep throat.

Except now the Red Wings have a 1/2 game lead over Norfolk, who was postponed

Ah, yes. You are correct.

...and you're rounding up. I'd pass anyway. Of course, that's coming from the perspective that Norris' WHIP and K/9 killed my fantasy team.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2110-Rochester-Rotation-Shuffle

When Mike Pelfey was activated from the disabled list earlier this month, P.J. Walters was the odd-man out of the Twins rotation. He was outrighted to Rochester on July 8th and made his first start on July 12th. Once Walters was designated for assignment, it was assumed he’d be joining a rotation that consisted of Wance Worley, Liam Hendriks, Pedro Hernandez, and Cole De Vries, all of whom have major league experience. That doesn’t include Andrew Albers and Logan Darnell, both southpaws by way of the Kentucky Wildcats. Having seven capable pitchers at this level, especially with the question marks in the big league rotation - even if all turn out to be AAAA pitchers - seemed luxurious. [ATTACH=CONFIG]4892[/ATTACH] (http://www.democratandchronicle.com) And then the wheels started to fall off. Cole De Vries experience discomfort in his right (throwing) elbow and was placed on the Disabled List with a strained elbow on July 6. Pedro Hernandez was scratched from his scheduled start on July 14 and placed on the Disabled List with a left (throwing) forearm strain. Even without De Vries, who has battled injuries all year, and Hernandez, who was probably destined for the bullpen anyway, Rochester still had a formidable rotation. But then – as things typically happen in threes – Vance Worley went down with a right (throwing) shoulder impingement. By the time Worley rehabs and is ready to pitch again, there is a chance the minor-league season could be over. Former Twin sinkerballer Nick Blackburn, who is recovering from wrist surgery, is set to re-join the Red Wings rotation tomorrow to fill out the starting five. While he could be a valuable addition to this staff as he tries to work his way back to the Twin Cities, he’s only made five minor-league appearances between the GCL Twins and New Britain since his first appareance since last year on June 28. And if that’s not enough “flux” for you, P.J. Walters will be leaving the team after his start on Thursday to be his wife for the birth of their daughter. Despite all of the shakeup (or hiccups), the Red Wings have still managed to recover from a horrid (2-11) start to take a 1.5 game lead in the Wild Card race. Just imagine how much better this team could be if they could get healthy and play to their potential, though in that case, Worley, De Vries and potentially Blackburn could be finding themselves flying west.

Yeah. He's of league-average age, most top prospects are younger. I'm heading down to watch him this weekend, curious to see how he looks.

I read his column since he'll deliver a nugget on occasion. Last season he wrote about Mitch Brown's success in the AFL, which is the last stop before the majors. I emailed him and said he's pitching in the Arizona Rookie League. He responded: misinformation from sources.

Re: Hicks- let's see how he does at an age-appropriate level over the rest of the year. Right now, he's not a Top 30 guy for me. Do well in the FSL and maybe I'll change my mind.

Off the top of my head, I put him sixth behind Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Harrison and Polanco, in no particular order after Buxton. I'm guessing that the 8ish to mid-teen region is gonna be pretty interchangeable, though. Through the many Miracle transactions, I missed that Corey Williams was placed on the 7-day DL.

He also tweeted they've signed 30 draft picks. I'm at 27 with another senior coming. Sometimes I think he just likes to round.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2106-Twins-Minor-League-Report-(7-21)-Arcia-Sano-Walker-Provide-Power