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USAFChief

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Everything posted by USAFChief

  1. USAFChief
    yes.
  2. USAFChief
    Honest questions: earlier in this thread you said BP's model showed 40 runs. Is that the "scaled back" number? If that's a scaled back estimate, why should I believe it's now correct, when the same claims would have been made last year, only with a larger number of runs saved? They had it wrong before, but now they have it right? As for what 2 strikes per game is worth, I don't know. Assuming 2 strikes per game is accurate, which is not in evidence by the way, I would say not a lot. Not 40 runs, for sure, IMO. That doesn't pass the smell test, for me at least. I've been wrong before, I could be wrong here. But something like this can't be proven, one way or the other, so I will just have to go with my sense of what's probable.
  3. USAFChief
    I am a sceptic about pitch framing, so take that into account. Disclaimer posted. An extra 2 strikes a game...I guess that's possible. Although my hunch is further research down the line will call that into question, much like many of the writers who treated defensive metrics as gospel a few years ago are backing off that stance now. But 40 runs per year? I don't think that's possible.
  4. USAFChief
    I agree there's a place for both. Baseball is hard to predict. I will say it won't bother me if they shift the balance a bit more towards the empirical side though. Here's hoping the next manager is really good at both.
  5. USAFChief
    It's not over yet. But you have a solid lead.
  6. USAFChief
    I see the point as: a top minor league system is nice, but one reason it's a bit misleading to put too much stock in it is some of the comparisons should be to young players already contributing at the major league level, rather than just to other minor leaguers. The goal is to get these guys to the big leagues, have them produce, and win games. Having a 24 yr old put up nice numbers in Rochester doesn't win any MLB games...he should be compared to a similar 24 yr old producing in the majors.
  7. USAFChief
    I strongly prefer someone from outside the org. But if it does come down to these two, I agree with Nick. Look forward, not back, and go with DM.
  8. USAFChief
    Yes.
  9. USAFChief
    I agree.
  10. USAFChief
    I think you have that backwards. Did emptying a good portion of their minor league system for Miguel Cabrera kill the Tigers?
  11. USAFChief
    I'd at least look into it.
  12. USAFChief
    Kemp is owed $21m for each of the next five years, which will be his age 30 thru 34 seasons. He put up a .850 OPS (140 OPS+) this year, right in line with his career average. He's probably not the superstar he once looked like, but he's a good bet to post similar numbers, and a huge bet to be way better than anything the Twins are likely to put in left field for the next few years. If the Dodgers want prospects in return, no. If its nothing but money, well the Twins have that, and should be going over budget the next few years anyway if they're going to meet their famous 52 percent promise, considering they've been below it for a couple years now. I'd take Kemp off their hands, put him in LF, and not look back. They still could buy any pitching they want, if they were so inclined.
  13. USAFChief
    Concur. I strongly think Mauer would be a disaster waiting to happen.
  14. USAFChief
    I doubt very many KC fans consider that trade a mistake. They havent played past the regular season in 30years. They got to follow a team in contention, playing games that mattered, all season. Tbey might get more. The trade worked, no matter what Myers does in the future.
  15. USAFChief
    If LA trades Kemp it will be to dump salary, so a team willing to take on Kemp's entire contract could probably get him for almost nothing. No team is going to both take on the salary AND give up real prospects. Same for Crawford. Do it.
  16. USAFChief
    1. Gardenhire is completely gone from the organization. No hanging around the team, casting a shadow over the new staff. 2. The hire comes from outside the organization. Young-ish, open to new ideas, major or minor league managerial experience. 3. The new hire is allowed to fill out his own staff. If he wants to retain any of the current coaches, great. If not, also great. But it's his choice.
  17. USAFChief
    Dave Martinez would be my preferred candidate. It absolutely has to be from outside the organization. If not, it will be viewed as more of the same....probably because it will be.
  18. USAFChief
    Not surprised. 1. They are going to have enough trouble selling tix this winter as it is without trying to sell "same old, same old. Nobody ever loses their job with the Twins!" 2. He deserved to be fired. 3. He wasn't going to get another contract after 2015, so what's the point of bringing him back for 2014? 4. It doesn't take nostradamus to see how this would have played out in 2015 if they retained him and they stumble out of the gate. He would have been a dead man walking and they would have been forced to fire him in-season. They had no choice.
  19. USAFChief
    I think it's basically impossible to predict anything about anything in baseball for the next " 5-6 years." Heck, it's difficult to predict next year.
  20. USAFChief
    the stagnating traffic and activity on sites like ours, Not to derail an excellent thread but...you guys are planning on hardballing the mods over salary in contract negotiations this winter, aintcha?
  21. USAFChief
    This was pretty easy to see coming...this article could have been written last year. So it's hard to have much sympathy, and it's hard to believe they'll do what is necessary to turn this ship around. And if they think Sano andBuxton will solve all their problems things are only going to get worse.
  22. USAFChief
    I can give them a pass on the first, as if I remember correctly they had 2 doubleheader in two days. The second one not so much.
  23. USAFChief
    I would prefer he work on rotation "topth" rather than depth. I don't think improving the options for fifth starter will have the impact that improving the options for opening day starter would. Although I do agree it's rather disheartening to see Swarzak getting more than one September start.
  24. USAFChief
    Great stuff. Thanks!
  25. USAFChief
    Anyone else get the feeling we've seen Adrian Peterson's last Viking game ever?
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