nater79a

If you don’t already know the Minnesota twins inked the former Ranger southpaw, and well seasoned veteran Martin Perez to a short 1 year compact, to what seems to be a lackluster effort to “fortify the rotation.”
 
Now we can interpret this transaction whatever way we deem to be fit, but the Twins projected rotation lines up as….
 


 
Middling at best.With the likes of two potentially elite pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel standing pat for a desirable bidder, this has caught the chagrin of Twins rage twitter, and you can’t blame them. Imagine inserting Kimbrel or Keuchel into the pitching staff, and the added perks would benefit all parties involved including the most important; rectifying the vast abyss of Twins rants on the interwebs.
 
It isn’t any secret that the Twins have loads of room to supplement the roster to make a bid for the division. With the Indians unloading after 3 years of reigning as division champions, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox currently having no plans other the than tanking, the crease is there for the Twins to make a run for the Indian’s money and to snap a near decade for a division title deprived fanbase. Even to that tangent, what even is more baffling is that the Twins have an unprecedented allotment of salary (I felt so deeply compelled to say cap room) on the checkbook or whatever ledger the stingy twins utilize to organize their expenses. As Minnesotan Fans, we are so inherently adept to mediocrity and heartbreak, it’s as if misery is in our compatible middle name. But in this instance, there’s only room to spectate and to be optimistic, which is undoubtedly a tough pill to swallow.
 
The Ugly on Perez
 
The ugly is so glaringly obvious. The kid pitched to the horrendous tune of a 6.22 ERA last season and owns a below average 4.63 ERA. He’s got a poor career 4.44 FIP, and doesn’t strike people out. Watching some footage of his former* (as in last season he was converted into a reliever because he was so awful) starts, the guy doesn’t have an appealing secondary pitch, his control is rather iffy, and his changeup has fallen off a cliff since its former dominance prior to his injury. Speaking of injury, the guy spent 3 stints on the disabled in only the past year, has operated on for Tommy John, and is as far as away from durable as Minnesota is from Texas.
 
The Bad
 
The thing Perez isn’t terrible because he’s bad. As contradictory as it sounds, he isn’t necessarily by any means as pitiful as he appears. Looking at the tape, its as if his performance rides a rollercoaster. During the first inning, the guy is as rocky ever. He gets in many hitters count, can’t find the zone, and gets rocked once he does in 3-0, 2-0, 3-1, or 3-2 counts. But strangely he settles down and is frankly razor sharp with precision in the middle innings. That sinker-changeup combo is to die for on the edge of the plate, and reminds me a lot of….JA Happ. I think toggling with his sinker/four-seamer to changeup ratio, and maybe a change of scenery would do him wonders. Not to mention, GLP in Arlington is no easy place to pitch, because the ball CARRIES out there.
 

 
The Good, and How to enhance it???
 
Believe or not, Perez once was pegged inside the Top 100 prospects in the Baseball America’s 2010 edition. Don’t think because of this though, that I expect him to fulfill his top billing as a prospect. The guy has upside which at this point is hard to believe. But as I watched the tape, he isn’t the doormat pitcher as his number would indicate. He’s a solid and competent enough pitcher in the middle innings and is maybe or not a little shaky-nervous at game tilt. Beyond that, he’s got excellent above-average velocity from a left-handed starter. His relative youth and exuberance leaves room for hope of improvement, and he’s 28. He also is a ground ball demon and induces a well above average GB rate, and at worst is a decent innings eater. We’ve seen this regime sign the flyer free agent, as referencing last year’s Anibal Sanchez reclamation project. After looking at Sanchez’s pitch usage, there’s nothing at first glance that collasally has changed. But taking a deeper dive, we can see that Anibal has surged up in his career ranks in Chase%, Pitches out of the Zone%, and overall Strikeouts%.
 


But his pitch movements, usages, and varying peripherals haven’t drastically changed.
 




What can be attributed to this surge is pitch sequencing. Sanchez better utilized his changeup in complement because he threw the pitch out of the zone. He Split-Finger had a career-high strikeout rate in volume, and had the most minuscule SLG percentage in terms of volume pitched. He cutback the vertical movement of his 12-6 curve, and upped the ante of his split-finger that fit perfectly to a series of pitches (sinker, cutter, split) that better suited his repertoire, featuring horizontal movement. Which is a primary reason why Anibal had a renaissance season.
 
I mention this because..
Anibal was once a former project
Perez bears a striking resemblance to Sanchez, in their deficiencies.

All of this surmounts to absolute and utter baloney if Perez resists in reinventing himself as a pitcher. This, however, does include an unorthodox approach, and completing throwing the entire baseball manual out the window, and tinkering with breaking balls. Look at the Rich Hill’s and the Drew Pomeranz of the world, and we’ve even seen Tyler Duffey rely on an off-speed pitch more than his fastball firsthand. Albeit none of this pitchers are All-Star commodities, they all in some capacity became better to some extent by heavily depending on their secondary stuff. There’s no denying Martin Perez is a fully capable and average enough MLB arm, but the real question remains; Will Martin Perez be open to tinker his arsenal, and if not were the Twins better suited to have unleashed a prospect in his place? That remains to be seen.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY[/
 
My virtual fake money is betting on that Wes Johnson and company already have recognized this, and have a plan waiting to be set in motion. My suggestions are pretty rudimentary, but they follow along on a general theme. Adjust and configure Perez’s pitches to align with his strengths. Just a rogue modification of mine for the sake of hypothetical satisfaction; steer towards an arsenal of the basis of vertical movement, (by tinkering with the cutter), reduce the amount of curves, increase the ratio of sliders:curves, and intensify the changeup as a wipeout pitch (which comes in further developing the arm side run, Ala Dallas Keuchel). This isn’t a foolproof formula for immediate results, but over a long term sample size, it's more than likely that Perez’s results would be slightly better than before. There are models of success that radically changed many players careers (i.e JA Happ etc.) that follow the same general blueprint; gear towards a players strength, and wait to experience slight success (snazzy rhyming jingle huh?
 
And if this completely backfires, convert Perez into the bullpen, transition him into a killer LOOGY (he’s seriously a death on lefty guy, look at his numbers) and deal him during the trade deadline for some fringe B- to C prospect and look to take another bite at the apple next year.

Picture this, I’m sitting in my 1:00 Anthropology class again absolutely bored out of my mind as my professor drones on about, well actually I don’t remember, but I hope it wasn’t important. Anyways, an interesting thought came to me; how did Derek Falvey build the Indians starting pitching staff? This thought came the day after looking at the Fangraphs projections for both Minnesota and Cleveland and realizing that dear God, Cleveland’s starting staff projections are hilariously better than Minnesota’s, even David doesn’t want to take on that Goliath. We can finagle about how much attention the Twins should have given the starting rotation this offseason, but short of signing Dallas Keuchel, trading for Zack Greinke, and then telling Jake Odorizzi to take a hike, the Twins starting staff was always going to be vastly inferior to the Indians. So how did Falvey do it? The man was boasted as the brains behind arguably the strongest rotation in baseball, so let’s dig into how he built it.
 
 
Falvey first joined the Indians as an intern in 2007 and then transitioned to Assistant Director of Baseball Operations in 2009. Falvey was then promoted to co-director of Baseball Operations in 2011 where he stayed until becoming the assistant GM in 2016, the same year he joined the Twins as executive vice president and chief baseball officer. Admittedly, Falvey’s role in the Indians front office early on was a bit less important than the one he has now with the Twins, so assigning the reason for these moves directly on him is a bit of a stretch. But at the same time, I think it’s fair to assume that Falvey played a decent role in all of these moves. I also have to appreciate the absurdness of some of the job titles they hand out in teams front offices, I could have made up those positions and you would not have been any wiser.
 
 

Corey Kluber


 
 
Corey Kluber, Cy Young winner, perfect robot, and the destroyer of Twins hitters hopes and dreams himself. This inhuman wrecking machine was obtained in a 3 team trade in 2010 between the Padres, Indians, and Cardinals. The Indians received Kluber, the Cardinals received Nick Greenwood, and the Padres obtained Ryan Ludwick. Nick Greenwood was worth -0.2 rWAR in the 36 innings he threw for the Cardinals while Ryan Ludwick put up a .659 OPS over 2 years with the Padres before being dropped on the Pirates. Oh yeah, and that Corey Kluber guy has done OK for the Indians so far.
 
For the life of me, I cannot figure out how Kluber became what he is now. At the time of the trade, he was just a body in the Padres system and wasn’t even ranked in their top 30 prospect list. He had a career minor league record of 18-24 when traded and was somehow even worse in his first stint with Cleveland’s AAA team. Apparently, he learned how to throw a sinker in 2011 and then won a Cy Young just 3 years later. So take that as a lesson, kids at home, just add one of the best sinkers in MLB and you too can win a Cy Young.
 
It’s a bit of a disappointing conclusion to draw from Kluber, but basically, we can just say that sometimes it’s the guys who aren’t major prospects who can turn into stars. If I had to assign a player for the Twins that would be their “Kluber”, it would Kohl Stewart. Stewart was initially a better prospect than Kluber but fell so far recently that the Twins were perfectly OK with any team taking him for their own during the rule 5 draft. Since then, he worked his way up through the system until he made his MLB debut in 2018 and became a personal favorite Twin of mine. He even features a similar sinker/cutter combo that has made Kluber an unstoppable pitching machine but lacks the true dominating breaking ball that makes Kluber so ridiculous.
 
 

Trevor Bauer


 
 
The most scientific man in baseball was a solid innings eater early in his career until he broke out in 2018 and changed to really, we have to worry about another one of these bastards now? And now we don’t even have Oswaldo Arcia to stop him, such a shame. Bauer was originally the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft out of UCLA. But he was actually taken by the D-Backs, in case you forgot. He was acquired by the Indians in yet another 3 team trade, this time in 2012. Bauer went to the Indians along with Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs, while Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp, and Lars Anderson went to the D-Backs, and the Reds received Shin Soo-Choo and Jason Donald. Now, that is way more players than I feel like analyzing, but Cleveland made out pretty well here if I do say so myself.
 
Bauer’s path to the majors is a bit more straightforward, he was a top pick from college and moved as quickly as you would expect a top college arm could move. His status as a prospect was always top and while he was just a good pitcher for a while instead of a great one, he became the true thinking man’s pitcher in 2018 thanks in part to a new slider he developed himself.
 
 
Seems simple enough for the Twins to follow here right? Just use an incredibly high pick on an elite starter that sees the game like few pitchers do and is as dedicated to his craft like I am dedicated to the bagel shop on my campus. The closest comparison I can think of is Jose Berrios, Berrios was also a first round pick who is ridiculously dedicated to improving and has more work ethic in his left pinky than I have in my entire body. While Bauer is the better hurler of a round object at high speeds, Berrios has the kind of talent that even Phil Cuzzi could see and could become even better if Wes Johnson and the boys crack his secret code.
 
 

Mike Clevinger


 
 
The man from Florida who looks like a man from California, Mike was originally taken by the Angels in 2011 before they traded him to Cleveland in 2014 for the guy who sounds more like an extra in “Goodfellas” than a baseball pitcher, Vinnie Pestano. Clevinger actually pitched for the Cedar Rapids Kernels who are now the affiliate for the Twins. I have nothing else to add to that, I just thought it was neat. This was just about the definition of a throwaway trade at the time it occurred, but oh man should we really hate the Angels for this one. Clevinger went from an ERA over 5 in class A to you have got to be joking me, they have another really good starter now?
 
Clevinger was kind of on people’s radars as he was ranked the 17th best prospect in the Angels organization at the start of 2014, but his numbers up to that point were incredibly whelming. Much like Kluber, he was a guy that the Indians saw and thought that maybe with a tweak here and there, he could become something in the future. And credit to Clevinger, he was apparently all ears about doing whatever he had to do to succeed.
 
This is another kind of tough one to draw a conclusion from because “just find a guy who is a few changes that no one else can see away from being elite” isn’t really a good blueprint for success or at least not a consistent one. Considering that I have already forced myself to find comparisons for each guy, I will go with Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ “Clevinger”. Duran is a much better prospect than what Clevinger was but also switched teams in a trade during the season. So far in his short time in Cedar Rapids (hint hint), Duran has dominated hitters and looks to move up to high A Fort Myers soon. I hope he doesn't mind that I now have him pegged as the next Clevinger, no pressure there kid.
 
 

Carlos Carrasco


 
 
The cookie monster was originally taken by the Phillies in 2003 out of Venezuela. In his first spring training, he ate Domino’s pizza every day for 90 straight days because he didn’t know what else to order in English. I don’t know how he did that considering that Domino’s pizza tastes like the cardboard box it comes in, but to each his own I guess. Carrasco was also acquired in 2009 in a trade (I’m noticing a pattern) along with some other forgettable dudes for Ben Francisco and Cliff Lee. Carrasco was the top prospect for the Phillies and was ranked as the 41st best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America that year.
 
Carrasco’s journey to be who he is now took a while as he struggled with injuries and not being effective early on in his MLB career. Despite starting his MLB career in 2009, it took Carrasco until 2015 to pitch more than 150 innings in a season. The Indians took a very conservative approach by using him out of the bullpen often in 2013 and 2014 after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012. After working his arm back up, they unleashed him as a starter and he’s been a pain in the Twins’ ass ever since.
 
Let’s see here, a top prospect, underwent Tommy John surgery, used out of the bullpen at first… Folks, we already have the next Carrasco here in Fernando Romero. Romero arguably has the nastiest stuff in the Twins system but still needs to learn how to refine his game and be the nightmare pitcher we all know he can be. While it seems that Romero is all but destined for the bullpen in 2019, it could be that the Twins still plan on using him as a starter long term and will be in the rotation in 2020 when more spots become available.
 
 

Shane Bieber


 
 
The Biebs was taken in the 2016 draft which was the very last one Derek Falvey participated in for Cleveland before leaving for the Twin Cities. He was taken in the 4th round out of college and moved pretty quickly due to being a college starter and having some ridiculous minor league numbers (.6 BB/9, 2.24 ERA).
 
The Biebs is a much more simple guy to track here, he was taken by Cleveland and moved up their ranks quickly as he continued to perform well at every level. He rose up prospect lists last year thanks to his incredible command and was a top 100 prospect by most publications by the time he made his debut for the Indians.
 
Who’s the Shane Bieber for the Twins? That’s an interesting one to think of because the front office under Falvey and Levine really haven’t taken many college arms with top picks. This is a bit of a reach, but I’ll pick Blayne Enlow as the Twins’ “Shane Bieber”. Enlow was taken out of high school but was a 3rd round pick partly because the Twins saved enough signing bonus money in the Royce Lewis pick to pay over the slot for Enlow and coax him out of going to the collegiate ranks. While Enlow is still just 19, his projections have received much praise from scouts and being able to handle low A ball as a 19-year-old is pretty impressive. While it will still be a few more years before Enlow probably makes the majors, he could be an important piece in a future Twins rotation.
 
There it is, the 5 pitchers that make up the current Indians’ starting staff and how they got there along with their Twins counterparts. 4 out of the 5 guys were not originally taken by the Indians and 2 out of the 5 guys were never really big prospects at all while the other 3 were. Probably the most interesting thing to note is that none of these guys were big free agent signings or acquired via trade as veterans and only Bauer had any experience pitching at the MLB level for another team. Is it any coincidence that Falvey has been a stickler for adding long term solutions to the starting rotation so far in his tenure? Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez were all obtained with 2 years of team control, but the plan so far has been to shy away from major rotation upgrades in the long term.
 
Looking into 2020, the current rotation is Jose Berrios and possibly Martin Perez if they pick up his option. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda are all set to be gone, leaving up to 4 holes to be filled. Looking ahead also, the starting pitchers available in free agency after the 2019 season are very tasty, to say the least. Go take a quick look, you won’t be disappointed. But now that we know what Falvey did to build his most impressive rotation, will the Twins even bother with free agency then? The Cubs built a successful rotation through free agency in their World Series winning team, but I don’t believe the Twins will follow that same route. Instead, they will run with Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Jhoan Duran, and Blayne Enlow, to take them to the World Series and you can bet on that.

Travis Blankenhorn was drafted in the 3rd round in the 2015 MLB Draft out of Pottsville Area High School in Pennsylvania when he was 18. Blankenhorn has escalated to now be one of the top third baseman in the Twins farm system, with a career .260/.340/.463 slash line that will improve as he gets older and moves through the system. I got a chance to ask Travis a few questions via Instagram.
 
Me: What is your favorite baseball memory with the Minnesota Twins organization so far?
 
Travis Blankenhorn: Prob when I stole home when we were fighting for a playoff spot.
 
Me: What are some exercise, workouts, or diets that you use to keep in shape while on the off-season?
 
Travis Blankenhorn: I just use my trainers plan all off-season and try to stick to eat clean foods and trying to limit the junk foods.
 
Me: What makes you strive to do your best and get better every day?
 
Travis Blankenhorn: The end goal of trying to make it all the way to the majors.
 
Me: If you were not playing baseball, what do you think would be your occupation?
 
Travis Blankenhorn: I’d still be a college student somewhere.
 
Me: Who is the most influential person in your life?
 
Travis Blankenhorn: I would say both my parents, just how much they did for me to get to where I am today.
 
It looks like Travis will be starting in Fort Myers this year and will hopefully tear it up on the Miracle’s and beyond! I would like to thank Travis for taking his time to get interviewed and I wish him luck on his way to the big leagues.

We are close to the beginning of the baseball season, so it is time to release my top 10 prospects for the Minnesota Twins. There are so many prospects who could make a huge jump and knock on the door of the top 10. After losing 2016 first round pick Alex Kirilloff for the whole 2017 season, he will be back. This is a deep prospect list and many could eventually make the big leagues.
 
10) Akil Baddoo, OF (2017 teams: GCL, Elizabethton)
 
Before Terry Ryan was fired, Baddoo was in his last draft class. He is one of two on this list from this class (Kirilloff). After being ranked outside the top 20 Twins prospects, Baddoo had a huge 2017 campaign. After having a batting average of .267 with the GCL Twins, he was promoted to Elizabethton, and he took off. While in Tennessee, he hit .357 and had an OPS of an incredible 1.057. He had 45 hits with Elizabethton in 126 at-bats, and nearly half of his hits (20) were of the extra base variety. In addition to those stats, he had 27 walks and 19 strikeouts with Elizabethton. All that while being more than two years younger than his competition. If he can replicate his play from 2017, he could knock on the door of the top five. The sky is the limit for the 19-year-old.
 
9) Blayne Enlow, SP (2017 team: GCL Twins)
 
After being talked about as a possible first round pick last year, Enlow fell to the third round due to signability, where the Twins grabbed him. There was plenty of buzz surrounding him heading into his debut last summer, and he did not disappoint. In 20.1 innings, Enlow had an ERA of 1.33 and held opponents to a .141 batting average and an OPS of just .433. He also struck out 8.4 per nine, and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.75. Enlow gave up just 4.4 hits per nine and had a WHIP of 0.69. Enlow has a curveball that is the best in the organization and if he can add a bit of velocity, he will sky rocket up prospect lists. The 19-year-old will likely start in Elizabethton, but will be in Cedar Rapids by the end of the year.
 
8. Brusdar Graterol, SP (2017 teams: GCL, Elizabethton)
 
Graterol missed the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, but when he came back in 2017, he picked up right where he left off. In five games with the GCL Twins, he was 2-0 with an ERA of 1.40 and a WHIP of just 0.72 in 19.1 innings. When he was promoted to Elizabethton, he struggled a bit (especially compared to his showing in the GCL). In his 20.2 innings in Tennessee, he had an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.21, but did have a strikeout ratio of 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. With the tougher competition in the Appy League, his control took a dip. After walking just four in 19.1 innings for the GCL Twins, he walked nine in 20.2 innings for Elizabethton. After throwing 85-87 when he signed out of Venezuela, he reaches triple digits now. If he can improve his off-speed pitches to complement his heater, he can be an ace with the Twins.
 
7. Alex Kirilloff (2017: missed season)
 
Kirilloff had a very solid 2016, hitting .306 with seven homers and 33 RBI in 55 games. Not bad for being thrown to Elizabethton after being drafted out of high school. He will likely be a corner outfielder with the big club, but can play center when needed. The reason he was drafted so high is his power. The 20-year-old has a chance to hit 25-30 homers when he develops and ends up in Minneapolis. After playing in Tennessee in 2016, Kirilloff will start in Cedar Rapids on what will most likely be a loaded Kernels lineup.
 
6. Brent Rooker, OF/1B (2017 teams: Elizabethton, Fort Myers)
 
Rooker was selected in the first round by the Twins, and started in Elizabethton and mashed. He started out a bit slow, but finished hitting .282 and an OPS of .952. Of his 24 hits with the E’Town Twins, Rooker crushed seven homers and exactly half of his hits were extra bases. After he was promoted to high-A Fort Myers, he kept smashing. With the Miracle, he hit .280 with 11 more bombs. He had close to the same stats in Florida as he had in Tennessee. The only major dip was in slugging, where he slugged .552 after slugging .588 in Elizabethton. But still, .552 is extremely good. He still strikes out too much, but that is fine when he hits homers at the rate he does. Rooker has the potential to hit 40 homers in the big leagues. The former Mississippi State standout will start in Chattanooga, and if dominates there, I would not be surprised if he ends up in Minneapolis by the end of the season.

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken
 
Kyle Wright is a right-handed pitcher for the Vanderbilt Commodores who is one of the top players available in the draft. Wright is 6’4” and weighs 220 pounds, with the prototypical build that scouts love in pitchers.
 
Due to his strong commitment to Vanderbilt, he went undrafted as an Alabama high schooler and has since physically matured and added five miles per hour to his velocity. He got off to a slow start this spring, but he has turned that around in the last few weeks. Wright may have more momentum than any other college player and will be one of the first picks come June.
 
Wright uses a four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. His fastball sits in the 92-94 mph range, with occasional flashes into the upper nineties. His curveball should be above average, but early in the season he left it up in the zone too much, which got him into trouble. His slider is an above average pitch, yet there is some debate about whether it is a true slider or if it is more of a cutter. His fourth pitch is a changeup, and although it is behind his other pitches, it should develop into a usable big league offering.
 
Wright uses a long stride in his delivery, but he may lose too much of the momentum he gets into the ground. His upper half also gets slightly behind his lower half during his pitching motion, which sometimes causes him to have inconsistent release points. Even though there are some concerns about his mechanics, he makes it look rather pretty, and his issues should be smoothed out in the development process quickly. Control is not a big issue for Wright, and it should be at least average in the majors.
 
As the draft gets closer, Wright’s name has come up increasingly more often in talk involving the Twins. Teams selecting first in the draft tend to favor players with similar profiles to the Vandy right-hander, and the Twins have been watching him closely. If the Twins draft Wright, he should be in their rotation within the next two years, making him more appealing to a new front office than a player who is further away. College pitchers are not always a safe pick, with their careers often being derailed by injuries, but that is a risk you are taking with anyone. Regardless, when the Twins pick first next month, there is a good chance they will take Wright.
 
Wright was a favorite of scouts entering the season, and he maintained that status through a rough stretch. If he can continue his recent turnaround, he will be a top five draft pick. He has one of the highest ceilings among players in this class, with top of the rotation potential, and he could also move quickly through a system, giving the team that drafts him someone who could pay big dividends soon. Regardless of where he goes in the draft, Wright has a bright future ahead of him.