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  1. GoGonzoJournal
    With Dave St. Peter saying the Minnesota Twins’ payroll won’t be “going down significantly” in an interview with Mike Berardino, the time has come to determine how significant the payroll decrease will be. With season ticket sales due to drop without the lure of the MLB All-Star Game and the “honeymoon effect” of shiny, new Target Field wearing off, I argue the Twins’ payroll will go down significantly.
     
    This blog was originally published at Go Gonzo Journal.
     
    Right now, the Twins have nearly $60 million in commitments. They started the season with a payroll of $85 million, but dumped about $10 million when they traded Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, and Kevin Correia midseason. Aaron Gleeman assures us on this week’s episode of Gleeman and the Geek that we won’t be seeing that money again, and it won’t be invested into 2015. I know, it’s stupid, but let’s evaluate the non-tender candidates and see what we’re left with.
     
    Tommy Milone
     
    Originally, I had assumed the Twins would make a splash in the deep starting pitching market this offseason, but that’s looking more and more unlikely, despite Mike Berardino’s support of my idea to sign Ervin Santana. Berardino suggests Jason Hammel as a cheaper yet effective option, which is reasonable, but I think the Twins intend to keep Tommy Milone around now that they’ve seen him pitch one shutout inning. The Twins’ front office likes to take a small sample-size and extrapolate it into some form of unhinged hope. I mean, he’s a free poker chip, and Terry Ryan probably thinks of him that way. Ryan’s subconscious will also play a role. I imagine it’s saying, “When that kid turns it around and starts throwing like he was in Oakland, people in Minnesota will be calling you a genius again.” That could very well be, and with team control until 2018, Milone could end up a free poker chip that pays off. He’ll be around.
     
    Anthony Swarzak
     
    There is no way I see Swarzak returning to the Twins. His strikeouts per nine innings were down 1.5 from 2013, and he walked nearly one guy more per game than the previous year. I see Mike Pelfrey filling this role, since there’s no place else to put him.
     
    Jared Burton
     
    If Terry Ryan picks up Burton’s option for 2015, I’ll throw a bigger tantrum than Aaron Gleeman did when Pelfrey was given a two-year deal. If it happens, there’s no way Ryan has a job in 2016.
     
    Brian Duensing
     
    I was on the fence on Duensing when I reviewed the Twins payroll last month, and his community involvement made me leave him on the roster, but that’s no longer the case. Duensing’s strikeout rate has dropped significantly, from 8.3 in 2013 to 5.5 in 2014, but his 3.31 ERA will keep him in the running for an increase in pay this year. I guessed he’d make $3.2 million in 2015, which is too much considering Duensing can’t get righties out. They had an .843 OPS off him in 2014.
     
    Eduardo Nunez
     
    Like Gleeman, I don’t see the value in Nunez. He never could hit, and he’s the worst defensive shortstop in the game. For some reason Twins Daily fans seem to think he’ll be back, but I don’t see it. Eduardo Escobar is a more versatile utility option that can hit, and according to Mike Berardino, he’ll be $1 million cheaper than expected. His average was 25 points higher, his on-base percentage was 44 points higher, and he can play six positions, albeit just below average. Nunez is well below average everywhere he plays except the outfield, which may be why some people think he’ll be back, but he can’t hit enough to stick at a corner outfield spot, and with Miguel Sano pushing Trevor Plouffe to a new position, I doubt the Twins tender Nunez a contract. There’s room for only one Eduardo on this team. The Twins also have a new guy that will get a good look next season.
    http://i1.wp.com/gogonzojournal.com/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2014-10-07-at-5.53.02-PM.png?zoom=2&resize=300%2C573
     

    My new Minnesota Twins’ payroll and roster for 2015. 
    Jordan Schafer
     
    I don’t think there’s any way the Twins don’t tender a contract to Schafer, and not because he hit the hell out of the ball and got on base at a .345 clip when he came over from the Braves. I don’t think Schafer’s numbers at the plate are sustainable, but in 262.1 innings in left field, Schafer was worth 21 runs above the average left fielder’s range defensively. It was his best position in Atlanta, too, as he was worth 14 runs above average. Schafer is under team control until 2017, and gives Terry Ryan a reason not to sign a free agent left fielder this offseason. It also gets Ryan’s subconscious talking about how Schafer will make him look like a genius.
     
    Trevor Plouffe
     
    Plouffe had a career year at the plate and in the field. He improved his defense and walk rate. He hit the same number of homers as he did in 2013 and nearly doubled his double total. His on-base percentage was up 19 points, and his OPS was up 50 points from 2013. His WAR was 3.9! All that being said, he is not an extension candidate, but a trade candidate in 2015. This will be Plouffe’s first year of arbitration eligibility, and he’s due a sizable raise. I’ve predicted he’ll make around $3.8 million next year, and if he continues what he did in 2014, he’ll be a valuable trade chip at third base or better learn to love left field. I think he’ll be dealt by the trade deadline next year to make room for Sano.
     
    Brian Dozier
     
    Dozier is obviously a candidate for an extension after raising his on-base percentage 33 points in 2014, and that’s the route Terry Ryan may very well take, but it won’t be this year. He likes to reward guys for past performance, and Dozier has arguably become the face of the franchise. He’s a fan and media favorite, and he’s certainly Ryan’s most valuable asset. He had a WAR of 5.2, best on the team and fifth amongst MLB second basemen. But he’s even more valuable if you don’t extend him. Dozier is under team control until 2019. He’ll be 32 and declining when he signs his first free agent contract, and given the depth at middle infield positions the Twins finally have, I suspect Dozier will be dealt…eventually. Mike Berardino expects Jorge Polanco to be competing with Dozier for MLB time by the end of next season, and I suspect we haven’t heard the last of Eddie Rosario. Marijuana isn’t a drug that ruins careers. By August 2017, the last year of Nolasco’s deal, Dozier will be gone, unless he turns into the best second baseman in the game. Hopefully the Twins can make some noise in the playoffs before then, but a top-5 player at any position is worth an ace and some change in return. And Minnesota needs pitching more than it needs a top-5 second baseman. You can’t afford to have a heart in this game.
     
    Phil Hughes
     
    Phil Hughes is the man I most want to extend, but I wouldn’t do it until after next season. Hughes hasn’t been able to string two good seasons in a row yet, and I’d like to see some consistency before extending him three more years. I think this is the approach Terry Ryan will take as well.
     
    So how much does the payroll go “down significantly” from 2014? Well, if Terry Ryan signs Jason Hammel and does what I expect him to with the rest of the non-tender candidates, the 2015 payroll will be almost exactly the same as 2014’s – roughly $85 million. Without Hammel, though, we’re looking at a payroll that’s around $75 million, significantly down from 2014, regardless of what Dave St. Peter says.
     
    ----
     
    Anthony Varriano is editor of Go Gonzo Journal Sports, a blog featuring the rants of fans and outlaw journalists.
  2. GoGonzoJournal
    That day I’d been calling for the past three years is finally here, and we can now speculate as to who will fill Ron Gardenhire’s shoes as manager of the Minnesota Twins. I don’t see any problem with the decision, and apparently neither did Gardy.
     
    “I agree with this. I think this is right,” he said at today’s press conference, citing many times that he’s “a fan,” and joking with Mike Berardino that he could punch him in the face now. “I want to see this team win.” Gardy was in good spirits all things considered, and has an open job offer to return, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds playoff success in Colorado with all the Twins’ former players. He better not bring Rick Anderson to that ballpark, though.
    I was surprised by some of the responses to the firing. Will Carroll said “Terry Ryan has no loyalty,” which I thought was a joke because Ryan has been the most loyal GM in the history of the game. And then Keith Olbermann replied by called the firing “cowardly” and Tweeting the ownership and front office were to blame for those losses, which I agree with. If there’s anyone to call out in this situation, it’s Jim Pohlad for not firing Terry Ryan. But come on, Keith. Terry Ryan’s job was on the line, too, and he couldn’t be the only general manager in MLB history to retain a manager with four consecutive 90-loss seasons…twice.
     
    http://i1.wp.com/gogonzojournal.com/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2014-09-29-at-12.52.54-PM.png?zoom=2&fit=300%2C300
    Also, there is obviously a disconnect between the staff and players given the quality of play the last four years. The players may be shouldering the blame for their manager today, but at some point the MANAGER has to MANAGE, and get the most of his players. There is talent not reaching potential in Minnesota, especially in the pitching staff, and this firing was a firing of the staff and not just the manager. There are also concerns regarding a lack of Spanish-speaking coaches to relate to the young Latin stars the Twins have coming up. The jobs of the entire staff should be available and Ryan should cast a wide net.
     
    According to Jeremy Nygaard, the “Twins want staff in place by October 12,” so this job won’t be vacant for long, as the Twins Wikipedia page beautifully displayed this morning. But according to Berardino, my favorite candidate will be in France until October 18.
     
    As you all know, my candidate has been Ozzie Guillen, and there is some support for that idea out there. As of this writing, a Star Tribune poll found that 34% of 5,228 voters believe Terry Ryan should hire someone outside the organization. And Ozzie is, of course, interested. He’s always wanted to be a “piranha,” and it was confirmed today by Mike Berardino.
     
    Another ESPN analyst, Manny Acta, could be a calmer, safer way to bridge the Latin gap between the Twins’ roster and staff, but I like Ozzie’s credentials better. I think it’s important to bring someone in that has playoff success, which eliminates Jim Tracy and Bo Porter from the conversation.
     
    Other internal options include Doug Mientkiewicz, who I feel is the most accomplished internal option, Paul Molitor, who would serve merely as a figurehead since he has absolutely no experience managing, Terry Steinbach, a reasonable but unexciting coach, and even Jake Mauer, who I find to be a reach, but he certainly has the skill set.
    So there’s your shortlist, Terry. Seems to me Ozzie’s at the top of it, and I couldn't be happier.
  3. GoGonzoJournal
    There is no reason the 2015 Minnesota Twins can’t be competitive. They have money to spend, prospects to watch, and changes to be made to the coaching staff that will reap rewards. Terry Ryan should be making drastic moves just to keep his job. Anywhere else and he would have been canned by now, but I believe in Terry Ryan’s ability to do the job. He can prove it by canning Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson.
     
    Gardy’s gotta go. He’s not the type of manager that can lead these young, mostly Spanish-speaking men to the promised land. He’s only been to the promised land once in his career, and that was his first year managing a team built by Tom Kelly. He’s got one playoff win in 11 years, two in 12 years, and a whole six in 13 years.
    If I were Terry Ryan, I’d take a chance on Ozzie Guillen – a man who can at the very least give us entertaining post game interviews. He’s also known to defend his players and light fires under asses. Oh, and he’s got a World Series ring – during Gardy’s tenure!
     
    Then there’s Rick Anderson, who somehow couldn’t make Francisco Liriano and Vance Worley work. They certainly aren’t having any trouble in Pittsburgh with Ray Searage. Maybe Terry Ryan should offer him the job. Frankly, I don’t care who he hires as long as it’s not Anderson. Sure, he can say he turned Phil Hughes around, and Hughes even credits him, but one guy in 10 years? It’s not like Johan Santana needed a lot of coaching, and it’s not like the young Twins’ starters have been breaking through in the majors. Trevor May has struggled mightily, and very few of the young bullpen arms have impressed.
    Terry Ryan can’t fix the problems with the Twins by hiring a new manager and pitching coach, though. It starts and ends with the product on the field, which is horrendous. He can start fixing things by spending as much money on starting pitching as he does on his nine starters. Ervin Santana should be a nice fit. Ryan offered him a three-year deal worth roughly $30-33 million before this season, but Santana elected to set himself up for a better payday, taking a one-year deal with the Braves. It worked, and now he can expect a three-year deal worth $45 million or more.
    http://i2.wp.com/gogonzojournal.com/wp-content/uploads/Screen-Shot-2014-09-26-at-2.02.05-AM.png?zoom=2&w=900
    I think he’s a good fit between Hughes and Nolasco, and so does Carl Buscheck of Bleacher Report. It should take some pressure off Nolasco to be the man and just allow him to pitch. He’s also another “veteran” presence at the top of the rotation, although Hughes (28), Nolasco (31), and Santana (31) may be the youngest group of veteran pitchers in the league. Good thing Mike Pelfrey will be around in the bullpen.
     
    Pelfrey’s 2015 contract could end up OK, as Nick Nelson smartly writes here. Even if we can get 80 innings out of him, something’s better than nothing, and Pelfrey will be a leader in the clubhouse. I guess that’s why they keep paying him because he’s certainly not leading by example.
     
    Besides non-tendering Anthony Swarzak and Eduardo Nunez, there aren’t too many surprises. Miguel Sano better be in the mix. If he’s not, I’d suspect an early call-up in July. Millone could replace Swarzak in the bullpen, but frankly, I think they’re both non-tender candidates. Millone was a gift, but seems to be damaged goods. Billy Beane knew something Terry Ryan didn’t. It’s not as though Millone has been dominant or anything, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is down a full point from last year. Hicks and Schafer both make the roster because who knows if Hicks will stick. Santana may move to short, or he may not, but it'll all shake out in Spring Training. This is not a lineup for next season – just a 25-man roster.
     
    Anyway, that’s a grand total of around $92-93 million, barring any extensions, and I think Terry Ryan and the Twins are backing off a potential extension for Brian Dozier after signing Kurt Suzuki for two years. Barring any injuries, the team above will be better than the 2014 Minnesota Twins. Santana is a massive upgrade to Kevin Correia, Pelfrey could be serviceable from the pen, which now has plenty of long relief to accommodate the inconsistent youngsters. Eventually, we’d like to see Alex Meyer in a starting role, but his day will come soon enough. Something is bound to happen to Nolasco or Hughes given the Twins’ luck the past few years.
     
    If Miguel Sano recovers, Kennys Vargas keeps smashing, Oswaldo Arcia keeps improving, Hughes repeats his 2014 performance, Nolasco figures himself out, Mauer stays healthy, Santana sticks at short and Hicks hits enough to stick anywhere in the outfield, Gibson improves his consistency, Suzuki stays fresh, Pinto gets reps at catcher, Plouffe returns healthy, Dozier keeps doing his thing, and Meyer and May reach their potential, 2015 could be a much better year for a much better ballclub.
     
    ----
     
    Anthony Varriano, @GoGonzoJournal, is editor of GoGonzoJournal.com/sports, a sports blog featuring the rants of fans and Gonzo journalists.
  4. GoGonzoJournal
    With the waiver trade deadline just two weeks away, Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins' front office still have some work to do despite unloading Josh Willingham and Kevin Correia for marginal returns and a few dollars they won't use. However, the veteran jettison has created roster spots for Trevor May and Tommy Milone, but the big problem in Minnesota now is a throng of young, capable bullpen arms that don't have roster spots because of veterans like Brian Duensing, Jared Burton, and Anthony Swarzak. Guys like Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly, and, perhaps, Alex Meyer or even Trevor May, should be pitching those innings.
     
    Duensing has the most value given his 2.28 ERA and 173 ERA+, and although he's striking out two fewer batters per nine innings compared to last year, he's also giving up two fewer hits per nine innings, lowering his WHIP to 1.246 from 1.475 last season. Duensing can't fill the role of a setup man, but should be pretty effective in the seventh inning, and the Yankees sure could use some help in the seventh inning if they're going to climb the AL Wild Card standings. I propose Terry Ryan and the Twins look further into the future, past the mid-level prospects, and pitch Duensing for 19-year-old Austin DeCarr. DeCarr has two plus pitches – a fastball that reaches 96 mph and a hard curveball – and although his changeup needs a lot of work, he could end up a No. 3 starter around 2018.
     
    I would have traded Anthony Swarzak last season when he tossed 96 innings at a 2.91 ERA and 139 ERA+, but apparently there wasn't much need for long relievers in last year's playoff race. Swarzak's value is in his ability to eat innings and spot start, and despite an ERA above four this season, his ERA+ (96) indicates he's close to an average replacement pitcher. In fact, he's on par with JA Happ and has pitched better than Drew Hutchison of the Blue Jays, whose starters and relievers have been equally underwhelming. If they want to stay in the AL Wild Card race, a guy like Swarzak could help get them there. Swarzak doesn't warrant much more than a player to be named later, and that player will depend on how many innings or starts he makes, like the Correia deal with the Dodgers.
     
    Burton will be the most difficult and most Gonzo trade to pull off because he's old and awful. He's got a team option for next year, so he'll be a free agent at the end of the year anyway. It would have been nice to move him when he was a serviceable setup man back in 2012, his first year away from the Cincinnati Reds, but Ryan and the Twins thought it would be best to give a two-year deal to a 30-year-old reliever with a long and documented injury history. Now Burton is hardly a serviceable middle reliever, but lucky for us, the Reds' bullpen is pretty atrocious, yet they're just three games back in the NL Wild Card race. Burton's ERA+ of 90 is nearly 20 points higher than JJ Hoover's, who has still managed to somehow pitch 52.2 innings, five more than Burton. I'd trade Burton for a bucket of balls at this point. Dumping the rest of his contract and allowing Tonkin, Pressly, Meyer, or May to pitch those innings is enough of a return for me to be satisfied with the trade, and I think many Twins fans would agree.
     
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    Find more Gonzo sports stories at GoGonzoJournal.com/sports, including a wild trip to the 2014 MLB All-Star Game.
  5. GoGonzoJournal
    In a wild MLB Trade Deadline Day that saw David Price to Detroit, Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes, John Lackey to St. Louis for Joe Kelly, and even Stephen Drew from Boston to the Yankees, Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins' front office can hold their heads relatively high. They locked up All-Star catcher Kurt Suzuki for two more years at $12 million with a slick vesting option for a third year based on plate appearances, as Mike Berardino tweets.
     
    The Twins played it smart and basically have full control of that vesting year. However, with Kennys Vargas being called up to fill the designated hitter spot in light of Kendrys Morales being traded back to Seattle and the "triumphant" return of Joe Mauer to first base and not catcher, it doesn't look good for Josmil Pinto, who now has plenty of time to progress defensively in Rochester. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if Suzuki gets 485 plate appearances in 2016, but it would mean Pinto still can't catch and Mauer still won't catch. With his improved approach at the plate that Parker Hageman recognized in video reconnaissance, maybe three years of Kurt Suzuki won't be so bad.
     
    Let's just hope Pinto learns to frame pitches at least as well as Suzuki in a hurry so Ryan can move Suzuki sooner rather than later.
     
    He did make another slick move in giving waiver claim Sam Fuld back to Oakland for starting pitcher Tommy Milone. I like Milone, whose given name is Tomaso Anthony Milone. Milone has put up impressive numbers in nearly 500 MLB innings pitched, but his strikeout numbers have steadily fallen. If he gives up even fewer homers and walks, which would be expected given Target Field and Rick Anderson, Milone will be an effective starter until 2018 when he becomes a free agent. And he will be better and cheaper in the role Kevin Correia has been failing to fill. Correia will be waived, and I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up the fifth starter or long reliever of a National League Wild Card contender...say, the Pirates. Any return on Correia is good return. Hell, maybe if we throw in a reliever they'll give Vance Worley back.
     
    Of course, we must also consider Ryan's move to send Morales back to Seattle, which brought relief pitcher Stephen Pryor in what looks to me like a salary dump of sorts. Pryor's only 22, but I don't see Ryan's interest except that Pryor's biggest problem is walks, and if there's anything the Twins organization preaches it's, "Don't give free passes." I didn't understand the move with so many young pitchers to throw out there as relievers: Thielbar, Fien, Pressly, Tonkin, even AJ Achter; and I still don't understand it after none of our relievers were traded: Burton, Duensing, Deduno, or even Perkins (although that would have been heartbreaking).
     
    So the Sam Fuld trade was outstanding, the Kenndrys Morales trade was pretty terrible, and perhaps the best move Terry Ryan made was to extend Kurt Suzuki at reasonable dollars and years. The Twins will most certainly be active at the waiver deadline, with Correia, Willingham, Burton, and maybe even Deduno to be considered. It's the most wonderful time of the year.
     
    For original story visit http://gogonzojournal.com/sports
  7. GoGonzoJournal
    With his last three swings in Toronto on Sunday, Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton likely erased any doubts of his ability to hit Major League pitching — the final step in securing his place amongst the stars of Major League Baseball. New Twins’ president Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine have little reason to worry about signing Buxton to a long-term deal as early as this offseason, and that’s not an overreaction to Sunday’s three swings.
     
    This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community for foul-mouthed sports broadcasters and bloggers. The Three Swings
    Falvey and Levine can probably stop worrying about Buxton’s bat. Baseball Prospectus editor Aaron Gleeman’s “life is devoted to posting positive Byron Buxton stats,” and he couldn’t keep up with Buxton on Sunday.
     
    You don’t need stats to see that Buxton has “turned a corner” as they say. Even ignoring those last three swings you can find an at-bat that proves Buxton’s progress. His first plate appearance of the game came with two outs in the first inning with runners on first and second. Resisting his younger self, he didn’t try to pull a fastball that was on the outer half of the strike zone despite it being elevated. Instead, he drove a hot grounder up the middle for a single that scored the first run — the perfect approach given the situation and pitch. That might say more about his progression at the plate than the three swings.
     
    In the top of the fourth, though, again with two outs and a runner on third, Buxton banged a hanging breaking ball into the Toronto bullpen in left center, reminiscent of Kirby Puckett.
     
    On the very next pitch he saw to lead off the top of the seventh, Buxton attacked a changeup left up that started outside and tailed back over the outer half of the strike zone. His timing was perfect because he’s no longer worried about being late on a fastball. In fact, he wants to be late on a fastball because it puts him in a better position to punish offspeed mistakes, which are harder for pitchers to locate. So instead of fouling the ball down the third baseline, he deposited the changeup into the second deck of left field seats.
     
    And on the very next pitch he saw, Buxton bent his knees to reach a 91-mile-per-hour fastball at the bottom of the inside corner and drove a line drive home run down the third baseline. The swing actually reminded me of
    , who is the only other MLB player of which I know who’s homered with three consecutive swings.Buxton’s final swing on the fastball down and in was the swing of an evolved hitter. It didn’t look like Buxton was looking fastball all the way. It looked like he reacted to the fastball and trusted the quickness of his hands. It’s another hole Buxton seems to have closed in his swing, so if pitchers are going to pitch him inside, they’re going to have to get him swinging at pitches off the plate inside.
     
    In three swings baseball fans got a glimpse of a star being born. It took the nebula that is “The Twins Way” more than 850 MLB plate appearances, multiple swing alterations, injuries and demotions to produce Buxton the star, but Buxton’s explosion was blinding and so beautiful it probably brought grown men to tears. Mr. September?
    This isn’t the first time Buxton’s offered a glimpse of his potential at the plate. The kid figured out big-league pitching at the end of last season, too, posting a .936 OPS in September of 2016. Trout’s OPS over the same stretch was .962.
     
    If Buxton repeats his success from last September, the Twins will make the playoffs. They’ve gained some ground on the Angels and Mariners, sitting alone in the second Wild Card spot with a 1.5-game cushion and have two fewer losses than the four teams chasing them. And while the Twins have relied on a slew of young players (Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco) to remain in the driver’s seat, it’s been Buxton who’s contributed the most over the course of the year, and it’s not even close.
     
    Buxton’s WAA (wins above average) of 3.0 is 1.8 better than Brian Dozier’s and 2.1 wins better than Miguel Sano’s. The second most valuable Twins player this season has been Ervin Santana, worth 2.3 wins above average. So Buxton should at the very least be Falvey and Levine’s top priority whenever they do decide to start offering contract extensions. But waiting until after next season would be a mistake for more than one reason. Why Not Wait?
    Falvey and Levine could end up paying Buxton a little more than a half million dollars next season, but fear of Buxton competing for the Most Valuable Player Award next year should be taken pretty seriously. What little money the Twins might save in 2018 won’t be more than what can be saved by signing an employee to a long-term contract in an industry that only sees salaries increase.
     
    Last year was the 14th consecutive season of revenue growth for MLB — a record of nearly $10 billion. Those long, slow games have really cut into the bottom line, eh Commissioner Manfred? Despite those long, slow games and people cutting cable at record rates, MLB seems to be doing just fine thanks to the live streaming market. I’m pretty sure MLB was the first major sports league to debut live streaming in 2002, which has allowed them to work out the many kinks that were present even when I watched my first game on MLB.TV in 2006. The streaming service is so valuable that Disney bought a majority stake in it to include with ESPN’s streaming service expected to launch sometime next year.
     
    So the biggest reason to sign Buxton long-term this offseason is because it’s unlikely he’s less valuable next year. If he stays on the field, he can only improve, and even if he doesn’t improve, arbitrated salaries most certainly will improve for players — every year — until Manfred ruins the game by starting extra innings with a runner on base. At this point, it would be more of a surprise for Buxton to regress than progress.
     
    Joe Mauer was also in Buxton’s boat. If you ask just a few Twins fans the biggest mistake the organization has ever made, it won’t take long for you to hear someone complain about Mauer’s eight-year, $184 million contract. But the mistake in signing Mauer long-term when the Twins did was not a failure to predict injury. You can’t predict that one too many foul tips to the head will alter your best hitter’s vision and force him to change positions.
     
    You can predict a player’s prime, though, and Terry Ryan didn’t do Bill Smith any favors by extending Mauer for four years prior to the 2007 season. Mauer was coming off his first All-Star appearance at age 23 — just his second full season after the knee injury. While Ryan bought out Mauer’s arbitration years for $33 million, why he didn’t sign Mauer through his prime is mind-boggling. Sure he’s a catcher that’s had a knee injury, but he caught over 1,000 innings the previous season and won the batting title — as a catcher!
     
    Mauer’s monstrous contract isn’t Bill Smith’s fault; it’s Ryan’s. That 2007 extension should have been for at least six years, making Mauer a candidate for an extension in 2011, an injury-plagued season, or a free agent after a rebound season in 2012 that saw him finish 19th in the MVP voting. Instead, Smith was forced to act after Mauer’s MVP season in 2009 to avoid losing the league’s best player to free agency after the 2010 season. That would have been a hell of a trade chip, though, huh?
     
    Waiting for an up-and-coming player to prove his worth always costs more because you’re paying for past success instead of potential success. Offering arbitration to an All-Star-caliber player is like writing an IOU that changes in value but always comes due, and generally at a higher rate than the original figure. What if Buxton Gets Hurt?
    That’s the big worry isn’t it? There’s nothing worse than signing a player to a long-term contract only to see said player get hurt and get paid the same amount to be a lesser version of the man who earned the contract.
    Buxton’s injury probability is likely higher than average due to his propensity to go all-out all the time. But only injury history, not injury probability, should influence contract negotiations, and Buxton’s injury history isn’t worrisome.
     
    Remember that collision that left him concussed in 2014? Twins fans everywhere gasped in collective fear and concern for their top prospect. Twins fans know better than most what blows to the head can do to careers. But Buxton came back two months later and collected 15 hits in 13 games of Arizona Fall League action. And while the next concussion will be invariably worse, it’s not as though Buxton is running into outfield walls at the rate Joe Mauer was taking foul tips off the head. Besides, Buxton’s legs are his most valuable asset to the Twins, and those have managed to stay out of harm’s way for the most part (knock on wood). What’s Buxton Worth?
    If Buxton ends up carrying the Twins into the playoffs he will have earned a long-term contract, especially if Sano can only provide designated hitting services the rest of the season due to his shin injury. Buxton wasn’t an All-Star this year, and while Sano was, the Minnesota Twins center fielder has been more valuable than the slugging third baseman, and any other Twin for that matter.
     
    Buxton has been flying under the radar because of his well-documented struggles finding his swing. Given Sunday’s three swings, that won’t be the case much longer. Buxton is probably going to win the American League Gold Glove in center field this year and maybe for the next 10 years. Even before he was hitting, Buxton was contributing more than the slugging Sano thanks to his speed and defense. His 23 defensive runs saved so far is best amongst fielders let alone center fielders. But now he’s starting to figure it out at the plate, culminating in the first two- and three-homer game of his young career on Sunday.
     
    Buxton’s 3.8 WAR was fifth amongst all MLB center fielders entering Sunday’s game and more than a win better than Sano’s 2.5 WAR thus far. After Sunday, Buxton’s WAR improved by half a win (4.3) — third amongst MLB center fielders, behind Charlie Blackmon (4.8) and Mike Trout (5.4). What Would Buxton Cost?
    While Buxton is looking like a player who can carry the Twins into the playoffs, he’s still not Trout, but he deserves the same treatment when it comes to his contract. If the Twins were to sign Buxton to a six-year deal like the Angels did Trout, Buxton would hit free agency for the first time at 29. Trout will be just 28 when he hits free agency for the first time.
     
    Buxton’s arbitration years aren’t going to be cheap and will only get more expensive with every season that passes. He’ll likely enter arbitration after next season as the most valuable arbitration-eligible player on the field — physically and fiscally. When considering what Buxton could earn in 2018, Marcell Ozuna is Buxton’s most comparable contemporary (5.0 WAR this year). The two-time All-Star is making $3.5 million in this his first year of arbitration, which is probably a bit less than Buxton would demand.
     
    So if Buxton makes the same Ozuna made in his final year of team control ($.57 million) and the same Ozuna’s making in his first arbitration year, that’s $4.07 million over the next two years. Call it $5 million just for sake of inflation. In Buxton’s second year of arbitration eligibility, he could be making Charlie Blackmon money ($7.3 million). In his final arbitration year, Lorenzo Cain’s $11 million salary doesn’t seem unreasonable, but Cain’s not being paid via arbitration.
     
    Bryce Harper is making $13.625 million in what would have been his second season of arbitration eligibility, which is also a problematic comparison since the Nationals bought out his remaining arbitration years. Still, if Buxton is better than Cain (and he is), it’s not unfeasible that in his third season of arbitration eligibility, Buxton could get what Harper got in his second year. Add it all up and it’s nearly $26 million to buyout Buxton’s arbitration years. He would be 27 years old — right in the middle of his prime — with another one or two years of peak performance left. So what would Buxton’s prime years cost the Twins?
     
    To give you an idea of how much contracts for baseball players have increased in just the last 15 years or so (and how little the dollar’s value has increased), Torii Hunter signed his four-year, $32 million contract with the Twins after the 2002 season. He had just won his second Gold Glove and finished sixth in the MVP voting. That’s not out of Buxton’s realm of potential. In 2017 dollars, Hunter’s contract is worth just just over $37 million over four years. So despite Hunter being the most obvious Buxton comparison, the massive increase in MLB revenues via television and live streaming deals makes a more contemporary example necessary.
     
    Christian Yelich got seven years and nearly $50 million from Miami before the 2015 season. Buxton will get more.
    Enter Trout — arguably the best all-around player of all time, so far. In no way am I implying that Buxton is the next best all-around player of all time, but Trout is the best example of a player who shares Buxton’s diverse skill set playing a position of scarcity, and the average salary from Trout’s six-year, $144.5 million deal signed in 2014 is probably close to what Buxton can expect over his prime given inflation. That’s roughly $24 million annually, or $1 million more per year than Mauer makes — at least through next year.
     
    Falvey and Levine have all or part of Mauer’s contract coming off the books after next season, and they’ll need at least half of it to pay Buxton. A potential six-year deal for Buxton comes to $74 million, or $12.33 million per year. Adding another year or option likely lifts the contract over $100 million in total. Falvey and Levine will likely load most of the money on the back end of the contract to allow more flexibility in free agency the next few seasons.
    There will be plenty of money left over for Sano with Ervin Santana’s contract expiring after next season (assuming the Twins don’t pick up his 2019 club option), and Glen Perkins likely entering free agency or retirement after this season. Brian Dozier could even free up a few million dollars for Falvey and Levine, which they’ll likely need to retain Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario. Why Buxton Deserves to be Paid
    Despite being rushed to the majors, and despite starting his career 2-for-22, and despite the changes to his swing, the demotions and the injuries, Buxton’s weathered the storm rather impressively for being just 23 years old. While Buxton didn’t take to the big leagues like Trout, Harper or even Mauer, he’ll be even better for it. All the failures of his young career culminated in the superstar we saw born on Sunday. Those three swings wouldn’t have been possible without the many failures experienced along the way.
     
    When Buxton was truly struggling to make contact at the plate, I never saw a look of despair in him, and that’s what it takes to be a superstar in the big leagues. All the tools in the world can’t help the player who’s discouraged by a seemingly endless streak of failure. Buxton deserves to be paid because he’s paid the price to become his team’s best player and proven his dedication to his craft.
     
    The way Buxton has dealt with failure should earn him the respect of his teammates and better allow him to lead his team. He’s shown the ability to lift his team with his speed, his glove, his emotion and now his bat. He has become the new face of the Twins and should be paid like the new face of the Twins.
  8. GoGonzoJournal
    In a prior blog post I called Jose Berrios the ace of the Minnesota Twins pitching staff. Not because I think six starts proves anything, and not because I don't believe in Ervin Santana. I do. Santana gets by on pitching prowess like Greg Maddux. But Berrios can flat out miss bats, regardless of who's swinging them, and that's what makes an ace. We'll get a good indication of Berrios's development on Thursday at noon against a hot Mariners lineup that roughed up Ervin Santana, Wednesday.
     
    This was originally published at FoulPlaybyPlay.com, a community of foul-mouthed, sports broadcasters providing commercial-free play-by-play and color commentary during select games.
     
    Berrios is in a position to lift his team with a strong start. It's kind of a big spot, especially with the disarray that is the Twins pitching staff. The only thing we can honestly expect from the three other starters in the Twins rotation is that they will leave plenty of innings for baseball's worst bullpen. Even if Hector Santiago comes back and is serviceable, there's still at least three innings left in every game he starts! At least! The same goes for Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia (or anyone else). And while the Twins bullpen is terrible, all bullpens are less terrible the fewer innings they pitch.
     
    Berrios pitched into at least the seventh inning in each of his first three starts this season. He hasn't done so since. While he allowed just four runs against the game's best Houston Astros (and that is an accomplishment), it took 105 pitches to get through five innings. He only went five and a third innings against San Francisco, the worst offense in baseball. And while he struck out eight, I think Paul Molitor would have preferred he pitch seven innings.
     
    I know, I'm starting to sound like Terry Ryan. But Berrios must find that happy place between missing bats and kissing bats. "Strikeouts are boring. Besides, they're fascist. Throw some groundballs." Sure, it's from a movie, but it's 100 percent correct. When you have the game's best defense, you can kiss bats rather than miss them and get easy outs, especially if you work ahead in counts.
     
    Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs raves that the Twins finally have a strikeout starter for the first time in nine years, but being a member of a team requires sacrifice. When the bulk of your bullpen arms can't miss bats nor prevent runs, the starter must do everything he can to extend his starts.
     
    Santana has not been great his last six starts. He's allowed 18 earned runs during that span. But you know what he has done over those six starts? He's pitched 41 innings -- three more than Berrios over the same number of starts. If that trend continues, Santana will have pitched an entire game's worth of innings more than Berrios over 18 starts.
     
    You know what else Santana does that Berrios must? He doesn't leave runners on base for the bullpen to clean up. In 14 starts, the Twins bullpen hasn't inherited one runner in a game Santana has started this season. That's huge for a bullpen that allows 29 percent of inherited runners to score.
     
    Over Berrios's six starts, he's left three of them with runners on base, and the bullpen's inherited four runners total. That trend can't continue. The solution is to get outs with fewer pitches earlier in games to leave something in the tank for later.
     
    When your pitches naturally move as much as Berrios's do, it's understandable that some days you just can't find the strike zone. That's when a hard fastball comes in handy. In the past, Berrios would appear visibly frustrated when he couldn't command his pitches, but this season he's acting more like Santana -- cool, calm, collected. He's getting out of jams by believing in his fastball and locating it for quality strikes. He's just not doing it late in games because it's hard to trust anything you throw when your "arm feels like Jell-O."
     
    So while Santana struggled Wednesday, there's still plenty to be learned from his outing if you're Berrios. First, when you don't have command of your pitches early, trust your fastball. Santana got strikeouts of Nelson Cruz and Danny Valencia to get out of the first inning on Wednesday by elevating his fastball and enticing swings. Next, don't let an early mistake control your approach. "**** happens," but there's a lot of game left and your team needs every inning you can give them. Finally, never leave a game with men on base. Santana didn't have a single 1-2-3 inning on Wednesday, but the closest he got was in his final inning. If Berrios can take these few pages from the Smell Baseball book of pitching, he will have earned the title of ace.
     
    Join F@*k Dick and Bert at noon, Thursday, as Berrios looks to earn the Minnesota Twins a series split against the Seattle Mariners at Target Field. We'll be joined by Twins guru Ted Schwerzler, who is going to bring some insight into the Twins' first draft under Derek Falvey. We'll also talk about the home buying process, as it's National Homeownership Month. We'll also offer the usual tips and tricks to enjoy life to the fullest. Visit here and click the media player at the bottom of the page to join us live.
  9. GoGonzoJournal
    Join F@*k Dick and Bert from Target Field on Sunday at 1 p.m. CST as Kyle Gibson looks to preserve his job against Alex Cobb and the Tampa Bay Rays. Every start in the bigs seems like it could be Gibson’s last, but he was bailed out by the Twins’ bats in his last start after allowing six runs in Baltimore.
     
    Gibson’s Issues
    While Gibson’s strikeout numbers this season are right around what we’ve come to expect (6 SO/9), his walks, hits and home runs allowed are way up (4.9 BB/9, 2 HR/9, 13.2 H/9), bloating his FIP to 6.4 and WHIP to over 2. Basically, everyone is hitting a bit of everything off Gibson judging by FanGraphs’ contact percentage tracker.

    That contact hasn’t been soft contact, either. Gibson’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is higher this season (.361) than it was when he broke into the league (.350). And while he tinkered with his delivery a bit last offseason, his pitch selection hasn’t changed much. Twins’ manager Paul Molitor blames a lack of fastball command and pitching from behind in counts, but if you look at what has made Gibson effective in the past, it all comes down to his slider.
     
    Last season, batters hit .222 off Gibson’s slider. In 2015, they hit just .157. In 2014, .210. This year hitters are feasting on his slider at a .385 clip, and the opposition’s BABIP is an insane .471. Gibson’s average velocity on his slider is marginally down this year, but it’s his inability to throw it for quality strikes that’s been the issue.
     
    In 2016, Gibson’s slider resulted in a 2.5 percent walk rate — the best of his career. His strikeout percentage was 38.5 percent — also a career best. This season more sliders are resulting in either called balls or batting-practice pitches. His walk percentage is 3.6 percent, and his strikeout percentage with the slider is just 25 percent — the worst of his career with the pitch.
    If Gibson is going to get his career back on track, he or Neil Allen must figure out what his new delivery has done to his slider command. Luckily for Gibson, there’s nobody at Rochester banging on the door to the bigs currently, but another outing like his last would put the Twins in a tight spot and force a change.
     
    Game 46: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
    If Gibson is serviceable on Sunday the Twins will have a shot. Righty Alex Cobb has allowed at least four runs in eight of 15 starts since recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s gone seven innings in his last two starts, though, and allowed seven runs over those two starts against the Indians and Angels.
     
    The Twins haven’t seen much of Cobb, with Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar each earning a hit in two at-bats. Evan Longoria should be comfortable at the plate, though. He’s hit .308 off Gibson in 13 ABs.
     
    F@*k Dick and Bert kicks off at 1 p.m. CST on Sunday from Target Field, so join us for live, uncensored play-by-play on baseball and life. We’ll provide new drink and food recipes inspired by Florida, discuss how to easily monitor your money and prepare for retirement, and how the Twins could stay in the race for the AL Central. Click the player below to join the broadcast.
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