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James Richter

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Everything posted by James Richter

  1. James Richter
    Remarkably, the opening day rotation might not have room for #3 & #4.
  2. James Richter
    Probably a coincidence that Vargas finally showed up for Winter Ball on Wednesday. 2-5 with 2 BB and 2 HR in his first 2 games - pretty good start.
  3. James Richter
    I think they'll be active if it can help them open some payroll flexibility. I like the package you're building here. They might prefer a lefty bat who could man their spacious CF, though - Rosario? He'd get a ton of triples there. As for the lefty starter, either Milone or Rogers should be on the table. Maybe throw in one of the upside bullpen guys, too. A 5 or 6 for 3 trade built around cost-controlled, MLB-ready players could net the Twins Shields, Norris, and Benoit (if not Kimbrel).
  4. James Richter
    If they chicken out on the QO, I'd definitely be interested. Overall, the offseason blueprint you laid out in the handbook looks pretty good.
  5. James Richter
    I would say they also stashed Pressly and, to some extent, Guerrier. You may recall that the team had a rather better winning percentage in the 1st half last year, and the bullpen compared favorably in ERA and FIP relative to the rest of the league. What did they do wrong last spring?
  6. James Richter
    Even if nobody loses their spot due to terrible performance (unlikely), the Twins would be smart to plan on using at least 7 starters and 10 relievers in the first half alone - multiple injuries will happen. So, all things being equal, I'd like to see them craft a 40-man that includes at least that many spots on the depth chart. If the choice for 5th-starter creates a roster crunch that causes them to discard a player they believe is actually their #7 reliever, that means they could wind up giving innings to their #11 reliever at some point in the first half. Stashing some options guys instead could help insure that they only give innings to their best pitchers, which would help the team win this year.
  7. James Richter
    If everybody's performing well, who's the best player? Best stuff? Career numbers? Hottest spring? I'd love to see May in the rotation because I think he can ultimately outperform Pelfrey and Milone. But if stashing him in the minors for a few weeks enables them to avoid throwing away somebody like Graham, that might be better for the team in the long run.
  8. James Richter
    If Milone & Pelfrey each pitch well in the coming days, they could be attractive to some of the teams that have lost pitchers to injury, particularly if those teams are just hoping to get through a couple months while higher-upside arms get a bit more development time. Barring a trade, though, I'm in favor of a scenario that avoids throwing away value - send the guys with options to the minors and keep the others on the 25-man. Quality depth at AAA is a very good thing.
  9. James Richter
    This is pretty ideal from the Twins' standpoint. The WAR Dozier has averaged over the past 2 seasons is worth about $20M by itself. I don't think $15M over the final 2 years would deter many potential trade candidates, and nobody is on the hook for a bunch of post-prime seasons. The deal ends at about the time we'd project Nick Gordon to be ready for the Majors. Yet it rewards a home-grown player who has worked to make himself the best he can be - that sets a good precedent for some of the other young core guys.
  10. James Richter
    I think you're being a little too hard on Fien. In terms of SIERA, SwStr% and FBv he was only negligibly below average, and Fangraphs is projecting him to have 22.2 K% in 2015. Now, if he's your 8th-inning guy, that's not a good bullpen. But it certainly doesn't hurt to have an essentially league-average arm get a spot somewhere. It's the significantly below-average guys that we want to avoid. And I think May is more valuable as a starter. Do you have separate stats on LHPs? I wonder if their average FBv might be a bit lower.
  11. James Richter
    If he doesn't win the #5 spot he has to stretch out at Rochester and be the 1st guy called up. And if he doesn't make the opening day rotation, it had better be because Meyer did.
  12. James Richter
    I couldn't find them today, but I remember seeing some stats a couple months ago to the effect that Mauer had faced an increasing number of 1st-pitch strikes over the last couple seasons, approaching 60% in 2014. For his career, he has a .988 OPS if the 1st pitch is a ball, a .727 OPS if it's a strike, and a 1.046 OPS if he puts it in play. If I'm an opposing pitcher needing to get Mauer out in a key spot, I'm laying the 1st pitch in there. Why even take the chance of missing the corner when he takes it almost 90% of the time? I think it would make a big difference for Mauer's production if he ripped the 1st pitch even 16-17% of time.
  13. James Richter
    As we get into spring training, some teams will suddenly find themselves with injured starters. Experienced, relatively low-cost starters will have some appeal, particularly if they're only trying to plug a hole for a few months. Good springs from Pelfrey and Milone could give the Twins some currency in that market. Barring a spring trade, though, I hope to see Pelfrey in the bullpen.
  14. James Richter
    Prospects are the currency of mid-season upgrades, and the 2015 Tigers are rather poor in that department. Though I suppose they may be willing to eat another team's salary dump (which would only make their long-term future bleaker).
  15. James Richter
    So much depends on which players actually get the most time. Neglecting May/Meyer or Pinto in favor of prolonged attention to so-so veterans like Milone/Pelfrey & Suzuki will lower the potential of the team. And I'm skeptical that the projected OF can catch enough fly balls to enable the pitching staff to reach the ERAs that they deserve. With an average OF defense, I think a .500-ish record would be well within reach. As it is, I think 78 wins is probably the best we can expect. (Ironically, alternating DL stints from Hunter and Arcia might be a net positive for team's performance.)
  16. James Richter
    It should also be noted that in his 9 starts post-DL, Nolasco's overall game was very much in line with what he'd done throughout his career. I'd expect him to perform that way again in 2015. Which, with this defense, probably means a low-4.00 ERA.
  17. James Richter
    Well, that's helpful!
  18. James Richter
    I'll give a mention to Nick Gordon. His .294/.333/.366 line may not seem too exciting, but it's impressive for a professional debut from a high schooler in a league that hit .252/.327/.356. Gordon didn't walk much, especially in August (not unlike Vargas in his first taste of MLB). For a player who wants to model himself on Jeter, I expect that improve. He'll look better this time next year with a higher OBP and maybe even some pop as he starts to fill out.
  19. James Richter
    Anybody they bring in needs to raise the floor of the rotation - push Milone and Pelfrey further down the depth chart. In the 2nd half alone, Swarzak, Milone, Pino, Correia, Johnson and Darnell combined to make 24 starts worth 0.6 WAR and average 4.2 IP/GS. Having multiple options at Rochester who could actually contribute above replacement level when one of the top 5 goes down would certainly help, particularly if their skill set enables them to avoid the OF defense as much as possible (i.e. high K/9 and GB%).
  20. James Richter
    I hope they have enough sense to target extreme GB pitchers.
  21. James Richter
    They don't need to add 12 wins, they need to decrease their run differential by 63. Hunter's bat will be better for the offense, but it's not going to be nearly enough to make up that difference. Adding an elite defensive OF instead might have gone farther to subtract runs from the other side of the ledger. Anyway, hope everybody likes high-scoring games...
  22. James Richter
    If the cupboard was as bare in the minors as it has been in the recent past, I'd probably be eager to lock him up. But with Polanco already at AA, I feel like they've got the luxury of letting this play out next year. Let's see if he's really a .760 OPS or a .715 OPS player before deciding what he's worth long-term.
  23. James Richter
    Probably guys who felt like they could make more money in KBO than in MLB. AAA/AAAA types, a la Colabello. Clearly not good enough to stick in the Majors, yet a big step up from what they used to have in that league. Sooooo, Yang probably would do well at AAA...?
  24. James Richter
    Not at all. Pythag can indicate a discrepancy in W-L record in as little as 3 games. There are a few formulas of increasing complexity to pinpoint an expected record, but they flow from a very simple, intuitive principle: A team that scores more runs than it allows should have a winning record. So if you outscore your opponent 15-14 over a weekend series and come away with only 1 win, you can already see that you're underperforming. I don't think of Pythag a predictor, but rather as alternative way of measuring team performance. In the case of the Twins' last 2 months, it serves to emphasize that, as poorly as they played in many facets of the game, they still should have won a lot more games than they did, and they don't have as far to go to be a winner as their record over that stretch would suggest.
  25. James Richter
    I've conceded that I miscounted and overstated. Your reply here actually underscores my point: They performed at replacement level. Average relievers would have allowed fewer runs, good relievers fewer still. So let's replace them.
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