James Richter
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Everything posted by James Richter
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How many home run will Joe Mauer hit in 2012?
James Richter replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think he can get to about 15, with at least 2/3 coming on the road. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets some disproportionate number of them on the South Side. At Target Field, he's as likely to hit one into the planters down the LF line or to dead CF as he is to pull one. -
Where's my post?
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Where's my post?
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They don't need score any more than that. The 2008 Twins gave up 745 runs. The difference between that number and the 804 runs the pitching and defense coughed up last year can be entirely made up with a combination of more sure-handed defense and league average luck on BABIP, strand rate and HR/FB. Though the Twins' ERA in 2011 was 4.60, their FIP last year was 4.30 and their xFIP was 4.33. A pitching staff exactly as awful as last year's - which this year's staff may very well be - could still be expected to allow about 45 fewer ER. Jamey Carroll's career .987 Fielding% at SS applied to the team's 745 total chances at the position would have resulted in 19 fewer errors, and a corresponding 13 fewer unearned runs. 804 R - 45 ER - 13 UER = 746 RA. If they can score as many runs as they did in 2008, we're in business.
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On paper, the Tigers have at least 5 wins on their AL Central competition. And that's after factoring in the avalanche of regression that will beset their offense (Avila & Peralta), starting pitching (Verlander & Fister), defense (everybody except Jackson) and closer. All that regression - Victor Martinez + Prince Fielder still probably equals at least 86 wins, and I don't think anybody else in the Central is a good bet to finish much over .500.
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The pitching staff underperformed its FIP and xFIP by nearly 1/3 of a run. Hitting their FIPs (normal luck on BABIP, stranding runners, HR/FB) would have resulted in about 45 fewer ER allowed. The 80 unearned runs the defense allowed were by far the worst of the Gardy era. There were some exceptionally good seasons in there, as well, but a typical Gardy team allows a UER total between 50-60. Let's say that normal (not necessarily rangy, but pretty sure-handed) Twins defense would have subtracted 25 UER. By combining the FIP with ordinary defense, the Twins could have shaved about 70 R off their total. That would probably include the 10 Teflon already suggested, though.