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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Lets talk about his Cuban bonanza for a second. Abreu was clearly a great signing. Nobody can argue that. I would argue that Puig and Cespedes had a nice drop off in production after year one. Which has happened a ton when unknown players come into the league (Nomo anyone). Puig, OPS of .920 and .860. Hard to argue that does not look good right now. Here were opinions of the scouts and teams when he was signed. Please read some of the quotes. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613621.html Cespedes is wildly over-rated. After his first year and some tape on him existed, he has had an OPS of .737 and .750. We could platoon Hicks .750 against lefties and Arcia, .850 OPS against righties and vastly exceed that production and save about $9M. But again these guys are not starting pitchers. Which is the actual problem. So two of the 30 teams signed one player each, in an area of strength for our club (international scouting). I am not going to get too riled up about it.
  2. tobi0040
    Here is my argument, If I owned a company that was 5th in an area and 28th in another, I would focus on the area where we are 28th as a source of improvement. From a scouting perspective, if we are top 5 I would look to keep that edge versus improve upon it and focus time and money to the problem. The Twins are where we are because we have not drafted, developed, or signed good enough starting pitchers. So focusing on the international market, specifically Cuba where almost all of the guys are outfielders is not really my focus.
  3. tobi0040
    While Sano's production is speculative, I offered up the ability to trade him and rank our system based on him right now. I think the lack of MLB production since 2009 goes to show that our investments have been primarily in minor leaguers. But overall if we want to throw in Arcia, Liriano, the Aussies, etc. we have done okay. Of the 10 guys on BA's list of Twins prospects, only four have come from America if you view PR as still an international location from a scouting perspective. TOP 10 PROSPECTS 1. Byron Buxton, of 2. Miguel Sano, 3b 3. Alex Meyer, rhp 4. Kohl Stewart, rhp 5. J.O. Berrios, rhp 6. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of 7. Lewis Thorpe, lhp 8. Trevor May, rhp 9. Danny Santana, ss/2b 10. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b
  4. tobi0040
    If we want to criticize the Twins, I just think we should focus on the areas of weakness and look to improve them. We took Buxton and Berrios in the 2012 draft. I am OK with that. I am not going to sift through some guy in the 3rd round and say we should have taken him over Bard. My criticism will focus on analytics and improving our rotation through free agency.
  5. tobi0040
    I think this argument is taking an extreme position. The Twins didn't have a need at catcher when Mauer forced his way up. But he was an extreme talent and we made way for him. Sano will force his way here, either through a Plouffe trade or a move to LF if we deem that is the best long term move. He won't be down in AAA for a year or two. It won't happen.
  6. tobi0040
    Where would you rank the Twins since 2009 on their international signings? In other words, if you could trade Sano for all of the international signings a team made, how many would you trade with? My gut says the Twins are top 3, or top 5 at least. Would you agree? If you agree we are top 3 or top 5, is this really the area we should be criticizing? I think the Twins deserve blame for many things, but I am not sure this is one of them. With hindsight, yeah, we should have signed Abreu. You got me. But lets focus on an areas where we are at least out of the top 10.
  7. tobi0040
    I highly doubt the Twins or many other teams would have had Harper catching, or that it would have substaintially delayed him if they did. Mauer came up at 20. Harper came up at 19 and was six months younger when he was drafted.
  8. tobi0040
    What are you arguing? We should have signed every good international free agent? Sure, we could have signed Sano and someone else. But your stance is basically that we have not done enough on the international front, when if you take a step back and rate the Twins since 2009 you would probably rate them in the top 5. No? Seems silly to me.
  9. tobi0040
    That is the hope. At every turn Gardy either does not use them or in the case of shifting, reluctantly went along with it after some fighting. I am also encouraged by a new manager who is a believer.
  10. tobi0040
    I get your point to an extent, but Harper is a poor example. He was a catcher when he was drafted at 17. But nobody thought he was going to be a big league catcher. He was actually announced as an outfielder on draft day. If ensuring we get Sano in the right spot and set him up for success means he is delayed 2 months, I don't think it is the end of the world. In the words of Jim Collins, you have to get the right people on the bus, and ensure they are all in the right seats. We got Santana on the bus before anyone thought, but in a seat he has no chance at sitting in long term. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5262217
  11. tobi0040
    I don't know. He does say he has no payroll limits every off-season. Sano was on a 51 HR pace at AA two years ago (19 in 59 games). I am guessing June.
  12. tobi0040
    I think Stanton gets moved this year or next. I don't see them doling out the cash.
  13. tobi0040
    I stand corrected. His tone changed since the call a few days prior. But I don't see any way he is NOT in the big leagues next year. This could be management trying to lower the bar. Similar to St. Peters comments earlier. Or we maybe parsing this WAY too much
  14. tobi0040
    Of all the internatonal signings since 2009 by team, how many would you trade for Miguel Sano? I bet you don't get to 5. If we are ahead of 25 teams and behind 5, maybe the expectations are a tad high. I would rather have Sano than Puig/Ryu. Rather have Sano than Cespedes. Sano over Chen.
  15. tobi0040
    Terry said Sano will not START the season in the big leagues. Big difference.
  16. tobi0040
    I don't get the trashing of our second best player last year either (by WAR). If we kept Plouffe and his 3.5-4 WAR at 3B, think of these two possibilities. Sano in Left field - Melky had an OPS of .808 and a WAR of 3.1. Brantley had an OPS of .890 with a WAR of 7. Hopefully Sano falls somewhere in the middle. Buxton in CF - Adam Eaton had an OPS of .763 and a WAR of 5.2. This seems realistic for Buxton. Having a WAR in the 14 range for 3 players seems like a good start.
  17. tobi0040
    If you go back to 2009, the Twins take Sano. Give the Cubs Soler. Give the White Sox Abreu. The Dodgers have done really well obviously with Puig and Ryu. The A's took Cespedes. The Twins getting Sano is still going to push them into the top 10 in the league for international signings. So this we haven't done anything meme or we should have gotten all the guys is not something that I buy into.
  18. tobi0040
    hopefully the Parmelee boat has sailed. It will be nice to have a new coach take a look at Pinto the catcher.
  19. tobi0040
    Yeah, he would have the second most WAR on 2 of the 4 teams still playing (of offensive players). 3rd on one and 4th on the other. But most wouid like to see him traded because he is not a starter on a good team. And nobody is saying we are going to get a top pitcher for him....
  20. tobi0040
    They have not built a competitive veteran team and then incorporated their farm system. That is not an accurate depiction of what they have done. Of their five pitchers by IP, none has pitched a single inning at the MLB level for another team. Wainwright, Lynn, Miller, Wacha, and Martinez. Of their seven top offensive players by WAR, only 2 (Peralta and Holiday) have played an inning outside their MLB organization. The rest, Carpenter, Jay, Molina, Adams, and Wong have only played for them. If the Twins compete in the next 2-3 years, this model is likely to be almost the same as the Cardinals. A majority of home grown talent supplemented with a few signings. This thread is getting carrier away.
  21. tobi0040
    Yeah, we could potentially have a roster this year where you don't have a huge difference between starters and bench players. So platooning and mixing them in makes a ton of sense. I am encouraged about the comments Terry made about SABR type analytics for our next manager.
  22. tobi0040
    definitely a log jam of sorts. I think Pinto ends up being moved/cut anyway. He isn't going to catch here and he isn't going to hit enough anywhere else. And I think Arcia and Vargas may be in competion for the DH role.
  23. tobi0040
    According to baseball reference, Plouffe had a WAR of 3.9 this year. Of the 34 position players on the four remaining teams, only 7 of those 34 have a higher WAR. On this St. Louis Cardinals team we so desperately need to emulate, only Johnny Peralta has a higher WAR among position players. Here is the full list: Cain 5 Gordon 6.6 Cruz 4.7 Jones 4.9 Pearce 6 Posey 5.2 Peralta 5.8 Unless we get a pitcher that is a difference maker, I am keeping Trevor Plouffe.
  24. tobi0040
    I will call Sano and Soler a wash. I know Sano was in 2009 or whatever, but not many teams, especially non large market teams dump $30M on a 22 year old or even $4M on a 16 year old every year. We can all pat the White Sox on the back, but what kind of look do teams have on Cuban players before dropping $70M on them? They get a workout maybe? He hits some BP. Then they have a handful of games in international competition. Then stats against Cubans. Isn't that about what they have to go on? I could be wrong here.
  25. tobi0040
    I forgot Puig and Cespedes, which by the way would have been further cherry picking the signings that worked out and still not made us a contender. Payroll around $100M.
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