Jim Crikket

Bottom line for me on Hollimon is... you can't MAKE a team in the first two weeks of Spring Training, but you can eliminate yourself that quickly. A lot of guys in the Twins camp have already eliminated themselves but Hollimon isn't one of them. He has to continue to hit well to make it difficult for the Twins to cut him. If he does that, he's got a shot because he profiles as a utility player more than a lot of guys. If he DOESN'T hit well, he'll just manage to be a late cut. On that note... he's now 2 for 2 today. Hitting .500 for ST.

For the record, Gladden just made a point of saying "nice job of getting out of the way of the baserunner by Nishioka" on that inning ending DP. So... there's that anyway.

Agree you have to take most of this with a grain of salt, JimH, but from radio broadcast accounts, there have been more instances where he just can't backhand a ground ball to his right. The Japanese are taught to slide over in front of every ball hit to their right, plant and throw. That affects range and his arm simply isn't all that strong. .261/.292/.348 for a .639 OPS, 3 Ks, 1 BB, 0 for 1 on SB attempts. Just one extra-base hit (a triple in one of the first games of the season, as I recall). The point remains that a bench player needs to be able to excel defensively OR be someone you'd want to use as a pinch hitter OR at least have speed you can use as a pinch runner. Nishioka doesn't really measure up in any of those areas and he won't get better at any of them sitting on a bench.

Another reason I'm starting to like Hollimon's chances more is that I can't see the Twins worrying at all about whether he gets splinters on the bench instead of playing regularly in Rochester. He's almost 30 years old, so if they can get a few months' use out of him as a bench player, why not do it? Nishioka will not get any better sitting on the bench and Dozier needs to play regularly, too.

Two first inning walks for Pavstache.

While Hollimon entered spring as a long-shot, I don't think he's facing those long odds any more. Still not 50-50 but not 100-1 either. If he continues to hit the ball and doesn't make a fool of himself in the field, I think he's got a shot. As Jack said, I just can't see Ryan giving Nishioka a roster spot if he continues to drag-ass over the field. Casilla can give Carroll a day off at SS from time to time if neither Hughes nor Hollimon can play the position.

I just tuned in and it's 6-0... so I'm assuming Doyle isn't doing much to establish himself with the club.

GameDay just showed injury delay... was afraid it was Casilla or Span. Relieved it was "just" Nishi.

What the hell is he doing hitting the ball to right field? Doesn't he know he was brought in to PULL the ball? What a bum! #sarcasm

Apparently either we have nobody in TwinsDaily who's a basketball fan or they never read the "Sports Bar" thread! But yes, a 1 in 3 chance of winning sounds pretty good to me, too.

Well... he's throwing strikes apparently :/

Fly out and two Ks in the first. Pretty nice.

I'll be glad when these split squad games are over so the pitchers will get some innings against a few Big Leaguers more often.

I think the composition of the team the last two years was a reaction (maybe an over-reaction, but I'm not sure) to how offensively challenged the Twins were the couple of years before that. The timing was just bad. I don't think the organization really knew just how "big" Target Field was going to play. They'd seen the new Yankee Stadium become a HR paradise and weren't really sure whether wind patterns would result in a breeze out toward the plaza every game. Last year, they talked about needing to get faster (thus the trade of Hardy), but didn't really address the problem well at all (corner OFs that were still too slow to cover the gaps, for example). If Span can stay healthy and if/when the team finds room for guys like Revere and Benson (assuming they can find a way to get on base), the speed on the bases should become evident.

This was originally posted at Knuckleballs By this point, everyone knows the variables that will determine whether the Twins will have a successful 2012 season, right? Mauer, Morneau, Baker and Span have to stay healthy and the bullpen needs to be vastly improved over last year. We know all of that because every beat writer, columnist and blogger has pointed at those issues over and over again since October. Sure, if the established veterans all return to the level of productivity we’ve come to expect from them, the Twins should avoid the kind of meltdown they suffered through last season. That said, if the team is going to actually contend in 2012, they’re going to need more. They will need breakout seasons from players that have not yet demonstrated that they belong among the American League’s elite names at their positions. But where can the Twins expect to find those potential breakout seasons? The typical arc of a professional baseball player’s career is actually more predictable than one might think. Their prime years are pretty much from ages 26 to 32. We all spent a lot of time discussing the back end of that range during the offseason, as we discussed the pros and cons of offering multi-year contracts to Michael Cuddyer, who is just past that “prime” range, and Joe Nathan, who is well past it. But when you are looking for potential breakout years, it makes more sense to focus on the front end of the range. The Twins are notorious for bringing their minor league prospects along slowly through the organization and, for a club with a reputation for disregarding advanced statistical analysis, it appears that they may have a basis for this particular proclivity. Projecting that most players hit their strides at age 26, I doubt that it’s a coincidence that most Twins prospects aren’t often starting their Major League careers (and their arbitration clocks) until they’re at least 24 years old. The Twins apparently try to time a player’s Big League debut a year or two before they expect him to break out and become a fully productive Major League ballplayer, then get as much of their peak years as possible while they’re still affordable. For example, Cuddyer was getting his first real full-time duty with the Twins at age 25 and had his first OPS above .800 (or first OPS+ season over 100, if you prefer that metric) in his age 27 season. Torii Hunter got a taste of the Big Leagues in the season during which he turned 24, but he really figured it out in 2001, the season he turned 26. More recently, Glen Perkins may have made his debut at age 24, but it wasn’t until last year, in his age 28 season, that he carved out a meaningful role for himself with the Twins. Armed with this knowledge, who should we be looking at in 2012 as having the potential to have breakout seasons? Here’s a list of possible candidates: Trevor Plouffe turns 26 years old in June. He’s shown some pop in his bat and, let’s be honest, if he had demonstrated passable defensive abilities, he’d be the Twins regular shortstop right now. If he can play a decent outfield, Plouffe could establish himself this season. But few players really get it all figured out in their first full year of regular time in the Show, so we should probably hold off on establishing those expectations of Trevor quite yet. Maybe next year. The same would be true of pitchers Anthony Swarzak and Kyle Waldrop. Both will be 26 years old pretty much throughout the upcoming season, but given their relative lack of Major League experience, it’s probably not realistic to expect them to have Glen Perkins-like results already this season. Infielder Luke Hughes is starting his age 27 season and he got a few swings in at the Big League level last year, so we can hope to see him step his game up a little bit. He’s not currently penciled in for a regular starting job, though, so you have to wonder if he’ll get the plate appearances necessary to make significant strides in 2012. So if those candidates aren’t likely to break out, who will? First, keep in mind that Denard Span just turned 28 years old a couple of weeks ago, so while he’s arguably already had his breakout season, he’s still on the front side of his peak years. He’s reached the point of being physically mature and has enough experience that he really should no longer be seeing much of anything offensively or defensively for the first time. That being the case, I’d like to see Span take a big step forward with his game this season, assuming he can stay healthy. Another familiar name on my list of potential breakout seasons is Francisco Liriano. We’ve been waiting for him to have a true breakout season for what seems like forever. Despite having several seasons of Major League experience in the books, Liriano is still just now entering his age 28 season. That’s slightly past our “breakout season” ages, but it’s not too late to see it happen… yet. That said, this is arguably the last year that anyone can make the, “he’s still a young pitcher with potential,” statement, so it’s now or never (at least with the Twins organization) for Frankie. If it seems like Alexi Casilla has been around forever, too, it’s because he has. He was rushed a bit after being acquired from the Angels for J.C. Romero and his service clock started while he was still just 23 years old. That means he’s just now entering his age 27 season (he turns 28 in July). Casilla has been inconsistent, to say the least. But this season, he’s starting off at what’s arguably his best defensive position, second base, and so far this spring he’s making good contact from his spot at the bottom of the Twins order. The game should finally be slowing down a bit for Lexi and if he can play decent defense while getting on base with regularity, he could play a significant positive role for the Twins in 2012. Finally, the guy with perhaps the greatest potential for having a true breakout season is third baseman Danny Valencia, who will be 27 years old throughout the first five months of the season. Valencia’s had two full years now to adjust to Big League pitching and there’s no reason he shouldn’t take a major step forward in 2012. Everyone seems to project Valencia as hitting in the #7 spot in the Twins lineup and he very well may start the season there, but if he’s still hitting in the bottom third of the order in August, I’ll be disappointed. So those are my “breakout season” picks… Liriano, Casilla and Valencia (with some additional improvement also from Span). Talk all you want about Mauer, Morneau, Baker and the bullpen, but in my mind, the Twins’ success, or lack thereof, this season is riding just as much on the ability of these players to make significant strides as any other factor. They are hitting their prime years and it’s time for them to show fans what they’re made of. - JC

This was originally posted at Knuckleballs By this point, everyone knows the variables that will determine whether the Twins will have a successful 2012 season, right? Mauer, Morneau, Baker and Span have to stay healthy and the bullpen needs to be vastly improved over last year. We know all of that because every beat writer, columnist and blogger has pointed at those issues over and over again since October. Sure, if the established veterans all return to the level of productivity we’ve come to expect from them, the Twins should avoid the kind of meltdown they suffered through last season. That said, if the team is going to actually contend in 2012, they’re going to need more. They will need breakout seasons from players that have not yet demonstrated that they belong among the American League’s elite names at their positions. But where can the Twins expect to find those potential breakout seasons? The typical arc of a professional baseball player’s career is actually more predictable than one might think. Their prime years are pretty much from ages 26 to 32. We all spent a lot of time discussing the back end of that range during the offseason, as we discussed the pros and cons of offering multi-year contracts to Michael Cuddyer, who is just past that “prime” range, and Joe Nathan, who is well past it. But when you are looking for potential breakout years, it makes more sense to focus on the front end of the range. The Twins are notorious for bringing their minor league prospects along slowly through the organization and, for a club with a reputation for disregarding advanced statistical analysis, it appears that they may have a basis for this particular proclivity. Projecting that most players hit their strides at age 26, I doubt that it’s a coincidence that most Twins prospects aren’t often starting their Major League careers (and their arbitration clocks) until they’re at least 24 years old. The Twins apparently try to time a player’s Big League debut a year or two before they expect him to break out and become a fully productive Major League ballplayer, then get as much of their peak years as possible while they’re still affordable. For example, Cuddyer was getting his first real full-time duty with the Twins at age 25 and had his first OPS above .800 (or first OPS+ season over 100, if you prefer that metric) in his age 27 season. Torii Hunter got a taste of the Big Leagues in the season during which he turned 24, but he really figured it out in 2001, the season he turned 26. More recently, Glen Perkins may have made his debut at age 24, but it wasn’t until last year, in his age 28 season, that he carved out a meaningful role for himself with the Twins. Armed with this knowledge, who should we be looking at in 2012 as having the potential to have breakout seasons? Here’s a list of possible candidates: Trevor Plouffe turns 26 years old in June. He’s shown some pop in his bat and, let’s be honest, if he had demonstrated passable defensive abilities, he’d be the Twins regular shortstop right now. If he can play a decent outfield, Plouffe could establish himself this season. But few players really get it all figured out in their first full year of regular time in the Show, so we should probably hold off on establishing those expectations of Trevor quite yet. Maybe next year. The same would be true of pitchers Anthony Swarzak and Kyle Waldrop. Both will be 26 years old pretty much throughout the upcoming season, but given their relative lack of Major League experience, it’s probably not realistic to expect them to have Glen Perkins-like results already this season. Infielder Luke Hughes is starting his age 27 season and he got a few swings in at the Big League level last year, so we can hope to see him step his game up a little bit. He’s not currently penciled in for a regular starting job, though, so you have to wonder if he’ll get the plate appearances necessary to make significant strides in 2012. So if those candidates aren’t likely to break out, who will? First, keep in mind that Denard Span just turned 28 years old a couple of weeks ago, so while he’s arguably already had his breakout season, he’s still on the front side of his peak years. He’s reached the point of being physically mature and has enough experience that he really should no longer be seeing much of anything offensively or defensively for the first time. That being the case, I’d like to see Span take a big step forward with his game this season, assuming he can stay healthy. Another familiar name on my list of potential breakout seasons is Francisco Liriano. We’ve been waiting for him to have a true breakout season for what seems like forever. Despite having several seasons of Major League experience in the books, Liriano is still just now entering his age 28 season. That’s slightly past our “breakout season” ages, but it’s not too late to see it happen… yet. That said, this is arguably the last year that anyone can make the, “he’s still a young pitcher with potential,” statement, so it’s now or never (at least with the Twins organization) for Frankie. If it seems like Alexi Casilla has been around forever, too, it’s because he has. He was rushed a bit after being acquired from the Angels for J.C. Romero and his service clock started while he was still just 23 years old. That means he’s just now entering his age 27 season (he turns 28 in July). Casilla has been inconsistent, to say the least. But this season, he’s starting off at what’s arguably his best defensive position, second base, and so far this spring he’s making good contact from his spot at the bottom of the Twins order. The game should finally be slowing down a bit for Lexi and if he can play decent defense while getting on base with regularity, he could play a significant positive role for the Twins in 2012. Finally, the guy with perhaps the greatest potential for having a true breakout season is third baseman Danny Valencia, who will be 27 years old throughout the first five months of the season. Valencia’s had two full years now to adjust to Big League pitching and there’s no reason he shouldn’t take a major step forward in 2012. Everyone seems to project Valencia as hitting in the #7 spot in the Twins lineup and he very well may start the season there, but if he’s still hitting in the bottom third of the order in August, I’ll be disappointed. So those are my “breakout season” picks… Liriano, Casilla and Valencia (with some additional improvement also from Span). Talk all you want about Mauer, Morneau, Baker and the bullpen, but in my mind, the Twins’ success, or lack thereof, this season is riding just as much on the ability of these players to make significant strides as any other factor. They are hitting their prime years and it’s time for them to show fans what they’re made of. - JC

AL West Angels (92.5) - Over Rangers (91.5) - Over Mariners (72) - Neutral A's (71.5) - Neautral AL East Yankees (93.5) - Over Red Sox (89.5) - Under Devil Rays (87) - Over Blue Jays (81) - Under Orioles (69.5) - Neutral AL Central Tigers (92.5) - Under Royals (80.5) - Over Indians (79) - Neutral White Sox (74.5) - Under TWINS (73) - Over

I'm in... now we just wait to see whether the two of us just go head-to-head or whether others will join in!

Hendriks seems like a terrific young man and he clearly has some talent. He also takes his craft very seriously and that's a good thing. That said, with all of that thinking, I can't help but hear Crash Davis in my mind... "Don't think, you'll only hurt the ballclub." Don't think too much, Liam... at best, it will give you a headache and God knows we have enough guys on this team with headache issues!

I saw Sano as early as his first Spring Training with the Twins in 2010, when he was a couple of months short of his 17th birthday. He was a big kid then, for a baseball player. But anyone who would state it would be unlikely he was really not quite 17 years old has never spent any time around high school football teams. He had grown more by the time I saw him last spring, which indicated to me that he was likely, indeed still a "growing boy," rather than a full-grown 20-year-old. But as Seth said, at this point, I'm not sure I see why it matters. Whether he's currently about to turn 19 or about to turn 22, he's still going to open at Beloit and if things stay on track, probably make his Twins debut in 2015-2016. At that time, he'll be only 22 years old. But what if he's really 25? No big deal... that's still not old for a rookie and either way, the Twins are going to have him under their control for the next several years. It will only be at that point... when he's up for his first "big" contract... that his true age may be a factor. Let me put it this way... does anyone think the Cardinals would give a damn if it turned out Albert Pujols really did understate his age? Hell, no. The only team that might care about that is the Angels, who are already overpaying for his declining years, not the team originally signed with. Similarly, the Twins don't care at this point if Sano lied about his age or not... as long as nobody can prove he lied. In fact, the Twins have NO incentive to question his age, at this point. First, if he's proven to have lied, it could cost him his visa and cause all sorts of legal issues that could very well threaten his entire career with the Twins. Also, I seem to recall that the Twins get a fifth year to decide to put him on the 40-man roster or risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft, by virtue of him being 18 or under when he was signed. If it turns out he was 19 or more, they'd have only four years. The extra year may not turn out to be a big deal if he's on track to the Big Leagues by 2015, but if he's not, that extra year might be nice to have. In the end, it's true that the Twins likely would not have spent $3 million on Sano if he wasn't just 16 at the time because an older player would be less likely to grow more, get stronger, and develop his game than a 16 year old would be expected to. That risk is essentially gone, because Sano has done all of those things. He's grown, gotten stronger and while he may never be a gold glove defender, all reports are that he has developed in several aspects of his game. In other words, there's been no indication that he has begun to "peak" the way he might have if he had been significantly understating his age. Sano is the real deal. He'll be the next superstar in a Twins uniform. Anyone ripping on him right now is simply not interested in anything but taking cheap shots at Sano or the Twins organization or both.

Are you capable of an original thought or opinion? No? Then that explains why you have nothing more to offer to the discussion than to parrot the same old BS "are you on the Twins payroll?" cliche others trot out any time someone dares to make a comment that isn't critical of the Twins. Seriously... it's fine to have doubts and it's fair to debate the pros and cons of decisions made, but obviously some folks are incapable of anything even close to objectivity. I feel for those who find no enjoyment in their lives unless they're ripping someone else.

You're assuming the Twins would have signed Carroll even if they still had Hardy, which I think is highly unlikely. They signed Carroll specifically because they didn't have a SS they had any confidence in.

Hell no. Even if you win, you only double your money. You need to wait and see if you can get something like 50-1 odds on the Twins winning it all or something... THAT'S when you put the kids' college money on the line.

1 - Yes those "sunk costs" CAN stay healthy... doesn't mean they all will. I do think it's reasonable to assume they won't ALL be unhealthy like they were last year. 2 - The existing minor league talent can fill some gaps, but probably not the bigger gaps. That said, every team needs solid role players and there's no reason some of these guys couldn't do that for close to MLB minimum pay. 3 - If the Twins are going to upgrade their rotation in the next year or two, they'll need to do so via free agency. It would be very un-Twinslike for them to do that, but they'll have the money to do so if they want to. This is the area I have the most concern about, since I just don't expect Terry Ryan to be willing to do what needs to be done. 4 - If the Twins don't use at least two of their premium picks, including their first, on a college pitcher that can be expected to zip up to the Bigs within 2 years, I'll consider the draft a wasted opportunity. 5 - It's unlikely ticket revenues will continue rising, but there are other revenue sources that have the potential to rise eventually. Of course, revenues tend to go up and down in tandem with on-field success. Kind of a chicken/egg thing. Wins means continued high attendance, concessions, merchandise sales and better broadcast rights contracts.

We could always set up a group on ESPN or Yahoo or somewhere if people are interested in a little friendly TwinsDaily member competition.