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Seven starts into his major league career, things have not gone as planned for Twins rookie Kyle Gibson. Gibson entered this season as one of the organization’s most hyped pitching prospects in recent memory. That probably says more about the sad state of Twins starting pitching in recent years than it does about Gibson himself, given his likely ceiling as a number three starter and the fact he is less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Regardless, a lot was expected of him when he finally debuted at the end of June, and the early returns leave much to be desired. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Following his most recent outing, which saw him give up four runs on nine hits in just three innings against the lowly Astros, Gibson’s ERA sits at a robust 6.69 over 36.1 innings pitched (his 4.97 FIP and 4.51 xFIP are not quite as bad, but that’s just polishing the turd). Simply put, he has not been good. Gibson spent the first three months of the season at Triple-A Rochester, where he compiled a 3.01 ERA (2.96 FIP) with 79 strikeouts over 92.2 innings as one of the International League’s best pitchers. Despite a struggling major league rotation and earlier calls for his promotion, the Twins opted to keep Gibson in the minors until the end of June to work on his “consistency” (whatever that means). Thus, though he has made only seven major league starts, he has already thrown a combined 129 innings between Minnesota and Rochester this. Given this is his first full season following Tommy John, that number is not insignificant. This last point has led some to speculate that Gibson’s problems may be the result of fatigue, suggesting that it might simply be time to shut him down for the season. To be sure, only once in his career has he thrown more innings than this year – his 2010 rookie season in which he logged 152. But looking at his game-by-game PITCH/x numbers, his fastball velocity has largely remained consistent over each of his seven starts, and the same is true of his power sinker. A review of Gibson’s PITCHf/x usage data does reveal an over-reliance on his hard stuff of late. More than 75 percent of the pitches he’s thrown over his past four starts have been either the four-seam or sinking fastball. In that time, his use of the changeup has been cut by almost two-thirds, and he has stopped throwing his curveball entirely. Gibson’s recent dependence on the fastball may stem from his inability to consistently get ahead of hitters (a 50 percent first strike percentage, compared to the 60 percent MLB average). Collectively, the failure to change speeds and work ahead in the count likely go a long way toward explaining his struggles. Fortunately for both Gibson and the Twins, the numbers suggest that his poor performance to date might have just as much to do with bad luck as anything he is (or isn’t) doing. His high BABIP (.344), high HR/FB rate (14.3%), and low LOB rate (63.2%) all suggest he is considerably underperforming right now, and once those numbers regress to more typical levels, his results should see a corresponding improvement. Gibson’s reduced strikeout rate (11.9%) is of some concern, but his walk rate (7.1%) is solid and he is getting a lot of ground balls (51.9%), which is what you would hope for given his affection for the sinker. With an innings pitched limit rumored to be in the 130-150 range, Gibson may have only three or four more starts to improve his debut season. He is probably a lock to crack the 2014 roster no matter how well he finishes, but you can bet there will still be a lot of eyes watching in Twins territory. A couple strong starts to end the season would be welcomed by both Gibson and the Twins front office, which faces a third straight offseason full of questions about the starting rotation. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact

By virtually every measure, the Minnesota Twins are a very bad baseball team. Entering Friday night’s game against the Astros, the Twins offense ranked 21st in both runs scored and wRC+. The starting pitching has been horrific even by recent Twins standards, ranking last in ERA (5.18), last in xFIP (4.56) and last in strikeouts (302) by an embarrassing margin. Lastly, the defense has been mediocre (12th in DRS) to bad (27th in UZR), depending on your metric of choice. The team’s lone bright spot has been the bullpen, which has been great despite a lack of name recognition and chronic overuse from the outset (367.2 innings pitched, 5th most in MLB). So yes, the Twins have been bad this year.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fortunately (or unfortunately, as I will argue), a few other teams have been worse. One of those teams is the Houston Astros, who are in town this weekend for a three game series at Target Field. The Astros know they are bad, and they are proud of it. From the moment GM Jeff Luhnow assumed control of the team, that has been the plan. Why? Because Luhnow is one of the smartest men in baseball, and he knows the best way to rebuild under the current CBA is to bottom out and embrace the suck. At 45-60 and virtually assured of a third straight 90-loss season, the Twins would be wise to do the same. That’s because in today’s MLB landscape, if you’re going to be bad anyway, you might as well strive to be the worst. With more and more teams locking up their best players to long-term contracts before they are able to hit the market, adding impact talent through free agency has never been tougher. Further, as evidenced by this week’s trade deadline (emphasis on dead), teams are valuing their controllable assets more than ever, making improvement via trade just as difficult. That leaves the international market and the draft as the only remaining avenues through which a team can dramatically improve its roster. The team that finishes lowest in the standings stands to benefit the most from both – in the form of the largest international spending pool and the number one pick in the amateur draft. Simply put, it pays to suck. Twins fans need look no further than Miguel Sano to understand the value that can be had on the international market. It’s an area they have taken some advantage of in recent years, but one where they could surely do more. As for the draft, the 2014 class figures to be much stronger than this year’s crop, with the top prize being NC State lefty Carlos Rodon – who likely would have gone number one to Houston over top selection Mark Appel had he been eligible as a junior. Of Rodon, Keith Law has stated: “[He] checks every box you might want to see in a potential first overall pick and projected No. 1 starter.” In other words, he’s just what the Twins roster doctor ordered. Heading into this weekend, the Twins trail the Astros by ten games for the worst record in baseball. They also have the White Sox, Marlins, and Brewers to contend with, among others. With 57 games remaining, the race for Rodon is still wide-open. So maybe you try to deal Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham to contenders, even if it means eating some salary to do so. Maybe you give Liam Hendriks one more shot to prove he can be a major league starter, and Chris Parmelee one more chance to show he can hit major league pitching. And maybe you give Joe Mauer a few more days off in the second half, to save those knees and extend his career behind the dish. I’m not advocating intentionally trying to lose, but it’s past time to worry about 2013. It’s time to embrace the suck. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact

The Twins barely managed to avoid a shutout Wednesday afternoon, dealing catcher Drew Butera to the Dodgers for a PTBNL just before the 4:00 p.m. ET deadline passed. Drafted by the Mets in 2005, Butera has spent the past six years in the Twins organization. He has been up and down with the club over the past four seasons, having played in only 186 major league games in that span (and just two this season). Butera’s value is derived entirely from his defense, as his offensive numbers are just that – offensive. His career .182/.230/.263 line is bad even for a catcher, and his numbers over seven seasons in the minors (.217/.294/.320) are not much better. In fact, as noted by SI’s Jay Jaffe, few hitters have been as bad over the past two decades. What Butera does do well, though, is play defense.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For the Dodgers, his acquisition means increased organizational depth at catcher. He will reportedly remain in Triple-A for now, and is set to join the Albuquerque Isotopes of the Pacific Coast League. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said as much in an interview with MLB Network immediately following the trade, adding that Butera will likely join the big league club in September as the third catcher. For the Twins, moving Butera creates some much needed roster flexibility at catcher. Chris Herrmann has proven a capable replacement in his short stint with the team, with more pop and the added ability to play a corner outfield position. The Twins also have Josmil Pinto putting up very solid numbers (.306/.410/.482) in his second season at Double-A, and this trade likely opens up a spot for him in Rochester. Further, after investing both a third- and a sixth-round pick on catchers in this year’s amateur draft (Stuart Turner and Brian Navarreto, respectively), there is no lack of depth at the lower levels of the system. There is also the financial component to consider. Under contract for $700,000 this year* and arbitration eligible for three more seasons as a Super Two, Butera was likely to be non-tendered this offseason anyway. A rebuilding team simply does not spend a million dollars on a backup catcher, especially one that hits about as well as I do. Trading Butera now simply moves that decision up a few months, and in doing so gives him a better chance to play somewhere else. It also frees up the team’s logjam at catcher and allows the front office to see what it has in Herrmann and Pinto. Overall, this deal will likely have little impact on the future of either franchise. From the Twins perspective, though, it’s at least another small step forward on the long journey back to relevance. #p2c *Per Cot's Contracts Originally posted at pitching2contact

All hail Lord Byron. It took him awhile to adjust to his new Fort Myers digs, but Byron Buxton is once again doing man things. On Monday, Buxton was named Florida State League Offensive Player of the Week for the week ending July 28th, further cementing his status as the top prospect in baseball. To celebrate his latest achievement, he went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and a run scored Monday night, pacing the Miracle to a 5-0 win over Scott Baker (!!!) and the Daytona Cubs. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] After disrespecting Midwest League pitching to the tune of .341/.431/.559 as a member of the Cedar Rapids Kernels, including 32 steals, 33 extra-base hits and 56 RBI out of the leadoff spot, Buxton was finally promoted to Fort Myers on June 25th. After a slow start with the Miracle, he apparently remembered that he’s good at baseball, and now sports a strong .282/.338/.476 line over his first 29 games in the pitcher-friendly FSL. Monday night marked the sixth time in seven games that Buxton has tallied two hits, part of a 12-for-30 stretch. As noted by Baseball America’s Ben Badler in his Monday Prospect Notebook, Buxton is mounting a strong case for BA Minor League Player of the Year honors in his first full pro season. Badler further speculates that a promotion to Double-A by season’s end is a possibility for the 19-year-old, with a 2014 major league debut not out of the question. Not that the Twins could use the help or anything. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact

On Opening Day 2013, Pedro Florimon became the eighth* different player in the past nine years to open the season as the Twins' starting shortstop. Since the departure of Christian Guzman in 2005, it’s been a perennial struggle to find the next fixture at what is generally, outside of catcher, the most important defensive position in baseball. Fortunately, in yet another season where little has gone right, the Twins appear to have filled their vacancy at shortstop for the foreseeable future. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Florimon has never been much touted for his offense and, true to form, his .236/.292/.351 line this year leaves much to be desired. However, that line looks much better in the context of .254/.307/.365 league averages, with shortstop traditionally being the weakest offensive position on the diamond. In fact, among his 26 contemporaries with at least 250 plate appearances this season, Florimon sits a respectable 16th in TAv** and 17th in wRC+***, ahead of players like Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro, among others. Further, given his age (just 26), minor league numbers (slightly better across the board), and relative inexperience (just 131 games at the major league level), it’s not crazy to expect some modest improvement as he enters what should be his prime next season. But what really sets Florimon apart – and what will surely prove incredibly valuable in the years to come, as explained below – is his defense. Florimon committed his ninth error of the season Friday night in Seattle (tied for ninth most among shortstops), so he clearly has room to improve in terms of fundamentals. Having said that, advanced defensive metrics indicate he is already among the elite at his position. In terms of both UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), commonly cited as the two most accurate measures of defensive performance, Florimon rates as the second best shortstop in baseball – second only to Atlanta’s Andrelton Simmons, widely considered to be the best defensive shortstop in the game. He also ranks fourth in Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), behind Milwaukee’s Jean Segura, the aforementioned Simmons, and St. Louis’ Pete Kozma. Largely as a result of his defense, Florimon has already been worth 1.7 WAR per FanGraphs (and 2.2 WAR per Baseball Reference), making him the Twins' second-most valuable position player behind Joe Mauer this season. With Florimon earning just $495,000 this season and not eligible for arbitration until 2016, he is and will likely remain among the better values in all baseball over the next few seasons. Looking ahead to 2014 and beyond, the value of that defense cannot be overstated. The Twins likely second and third basemen of the future, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano, both currently reside at Double-A New Britain. Both rank among the best offensive talents in the minor leagues at their respective positions, and it’s not out of the question that both could be playing at Target Field as early as 2014. What neither is known for, however, is excellence on defense, making the fielding range of whoever is playing between them at short that much more important. Assuming Rosario and Sano continue to develop as expected, Florimon projects as their ideal complement in the field, making him a key component of the rebuilding effort. With the fifth worst record in baseball through 100 games, the Twins' front office is surely in all-out evaluation mode, trying to determine which members of the current roster will be around to help stem the losing tide next season. Based on his performance thus far, Florimon is one player who seems virtually assured of a spot in the 2014 opening day lineup. After almost a decade of trying to plug the six-hole, it seems the Twins finally have found their guy. #p2c *The others: Jason Bartlett (2005, 2007), Juan Castro (2006), Adam Everett (2008), Nick Punto (2009), JJ Hardy (2010), Alexi Casilla (2011), and Jamey Carroll (2012)…yuck. **Per Baseball Prospectus, TAv is a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average. ***Per FanGraphs, wRC+ is a park- and league-adjusted measure of a player’s total offensive value compared with league average. Originally published on pitching.2.contact

Last week’s Triple-A All-Star Game marked the last of the minor league midsummer classics. The passing of the first half also meant the release of several midseason top prospect lists, and with the Twins steamrolling towards another 90-loss season, at least fans can take solace in the various updated rankings and know that better days are ahead. Several highly respected prospect evaluators released their midseason rankings over the past month, and not surprisingly, the Twins organization was very well represented.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Baseball America (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (3) Alex Meyer (32) Baseball Prospectus (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (6) Alex Meyer (44) FanGraphs (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (10) Alex Meyer (36) Keith Law (Top 50): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (4) Kohl Stewart (30)* Alex Meyer (38) Eddie Rosario (41) John Sickels (Top 75): Byron Buxton (1) Miguel Sano (3) Alex Meyer (51) Eddie Rosario (56) *Only list to include 2013 draft picks Observations: Byron Buxton’s huge first half has made him the unanimous number one prospect in all baseball. Miguel Sano is a consensus top ten prospect and arguably the best power bat in the minors. Despite being sidelined the past several weeks with a shoulder injury, Alex Meyer has eased concerns about his mechanics and turned himself into an elite starting pitching prospect. Eddie Rosario has largely flown under the radar, but finds himself on the cusp of top-50 territory. Kohl Stewart is undoubtedly the top pitching prospect in the Twins organization, and will surely be a top three prospect heading into next year. Even with the 2013 promotions of top ten prospects Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, and Kyle Gibson, the Twins pool of minor leaguers remains full of want and wet with talent. With as many as five potential top-50 guys and a number of other candidates (Max Kepler, Trevor May, Jose Barrios) knocking on the door, the Twins are assured of being well represented in virtually every 2014 top prospect list and a legit contender for the top organization in baseball. Someday we will look back at these 90-loss seasons and laugh, but until then the promise of a brighter future will have to do. #p2c Originally published on pitching.2.contact