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On Saturday night, the Twins faced off against White Sox ace Chris Sale, widely regarded as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in just his second season as a full-time starter. They countered with an “ace” of their own in Canadian lefty Andrew Albers, a 27-year-old journeyman who was pitching in the independent Can-Am league as recently as 2010. I refer to Albers as an ace not because I believe that he is one (far from it), but because just two starts into his career he was being hailed as one by fans and the media alike. Fortunately, the matchup served as a great reminder of what a real ace looks like, and he most certainly does not reside in the home team’s dugout. Albers’ story is truly unique, yet his is an all-too-familiar one for this particular Twins fan. While some take joy in watching him pitch, I am simply reminded of how many times I have seen this narrative play out before. His incredible debut aside, Albers is a fringe major league starter with almost no pedigree and below-average stuff. There is a reason he was not called up before P.J. Walters…or Samuel Deduno…or Kyle Gibson. There is a reason he was still pitching in the minor leagues at the age of 27. There is a reason he is not pitching for a contender. This is not to take anything away from Albers himself. His journey to the big leagues is an incredible one, and the perseverance he showed throughout that journey is commendable. His story and others like it are what separate baseball from every other sport, and what make it so uniquely special. He is a feel good story, and for his sake I hope he pitches like Cy Young for the rest of this season and beyond. But I am tired of feel good stories. It is fine to appreciate what Albers is doing, but let us not forget why he is in the position to do so in the first place. He is exactly the type of pitcher that turned the Twins into a perennial 90-loss team, and he is exactly the type of pitcher that they need to let go of in order to get out of their current mess and get back to respectability. As Aaron Gleeman tweeted last week, Andrew Albers is really nothing more than Scott Diamond, the man he replaced in the rotation. And Scott Diamond was really nothing more than Nick Blackburn, the back-end starter that came before him. And on and on it goes. I hope that people paid attention Saturday night, because after three years of batting practice, it is easy to forget what a good starting pitcher looks like. Chris Sale is an ace. Andrew Albers is not. How about we stop pretending otherwise. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact

The Twins have announced that starting pitcher Nick Blackburn will have surgery on Friday to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, likely ending both his season and his career in Minnesota. This will be Blackburn’s third procedure in the past calendar year, and he has been limited to just six minor league starts this season as a result. With the Twins holding an $8M club option for 2014, this will surely mark the end of his time with the organization. Blackburn debuted with the Twins in 2007, appearing in six games out of the bullpen as a September call-up that season. He cracked the starting rotation out of spring training the following year, and put together remarkably similar back-to-back solid campaigns in 2008-09. [TABLE=width: 520] [/TD][TD]W-L GS IP K% BB% HR/FB ERA FIP fWAR rWAR 2008 11-11 33 193.1 11.7 4.7 10.0 4.05 4.40 2.4 2.3 2009 11-11 33 205.2 11.1 4.7 9.4 4.03 4.37 2.9 3.2 [/TABLE] Blackburn parlayed those two years into a four-year contract worth $14M dollars, a deal that bought out all of his arbitration-eligible seasons with the Twins. Unfortunately for both parties, he was never the same pitcher after 2009 – put another way, he was awful. Over the next three years, Blackburn’s miniscule walk rates regressed, his already terrible strikeout rates got even worse, and his HR/FB rates skyrocketed. Factor in a lost 2013 season, and he has been worth a total of 0.1 WAR over the life of the deal via FanGraphs, and an even sadder -1.7 WAR according to Baseball Reference (!!!). For the Twins, the Blackburn contract represents one of the worst in a series of bad moves made by then general manager Bill Smith in his four stellar years at the helm. (Hat tip to Tsuyoshi Nishioka.) Though it seemed defensible at the time given his numbers over the previous two seasons, the deal was essentially a premature long-term investment in a starter incapable of striking batters out. (Blackburn’s 11.4% strikeout rate was 5th worst in MLB in that span, among a top 25 that also included future Twins fireballers Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia. … Just wow). It came at a time when smart front offices were increasingly valuing strikeout pitchers, and was a bad harbinger of things to come regarding the team’s approach to targeting and developing starting pitching. Indeed, perhaps no other pitcher epitomizes the “pitching to contact” philosophy that has so haunted the organization in recent years more than Nick Blackburn. For all of the hate that I have (perhaps wrongfully) directed at Blackburn over the past four seasons, part of me wanted to see him pitch at Target Field one last time this season. I hope that he bounces back from his most recent surgery and gets a chance to start for another organization next year – preferably in the AL Central, for obvious reasons. Regardless, his legend will live on in this blog and elsewhere throughout Twins territory as a symbol of the dark times, and his exit as a sign of better days ahead. Deuces Blackie. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact

Seven starts into his major league career, things have not gone as planned for Twins rookie Kyle Gibson. Gibson entered this season as one of the organization’s most hyped pitching prospects in recent memory. That probably says more about the sad state of Twins starting pitching in recent years than it does about Gibson himself, given his likely ceiling as a number three starter and the fact he is less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Regardless, a lot was expected of him when he finally debuted at the end of June, and the early returns leave much to be desired. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Following his most recent outing, which saw him give up four runs on nine hits in just three innings against the lowly Astros, Gibson’s ERA sits at a robust 6.69 over 36.1 innings pitched (his 4.97 FIP and 4.51 xFIP are not quite as bad, but that’s just polishing the turd). Simply put, he has not been good. Gibson spent the first three months of the season at Triple-A Rochester, where he compiled a 3.01 ERA (2.96 FIP) with 79 strikeouts over 92.2 innings as one of the International League’s best pitchers. Despite a struggling major league rotation and earlier calls for his promotion, the Twins opted to keep Gibson in the minors until the end of June to work on his “consistency” (whatever that means). Thus, though he has made only seven major league starts, he has already thrown a combined 129 innings between Minnesota and Rochester this. Given this is his first full season following Tommy John, that number is not insignificant. This last point has led some to speculate that Gibson’s problems may be the result of fatigue, suggesting that it might simply be time to shut him down for the season. To be sure, only once in his career has he thrown more innings than this year – his 2010 rookie season in which he logged 152. But looking at his game-by-game PITCH/x numbers, his fastball velocity has largely remained consistent over each of his seven starts, and the same is true of his power sinker. A review of Gibson’s PITCHf/x usage data does reveal an over-reliance on his hard stuff of late. More than 75 percent of the pitches he’s thrown over his past four starts have been either the four-seam or sinking fastball. In that time, his use of the changeup has been cut by almost two-thirds, and he has stopped throwing his curveball entirely. Gibson’s recent dependence on the fastball may stem from his inability to consistently get ahead of hitters (a 50 percent first strike percentage, compared to the 60 percent MLB average). Collectively, the failure to change speeds and work ahead in the count likely go a long way toward explaining his struggles. Fortunately for both Gibson and the Twins, the numbers suggest that his poor performance to date might have just as much to do with bad luck as anything he is (or isn’t) doing. His high BABIP (.344), high HR/FB rate (14.3%), and low LOB rate (63.2%) all suggest he is considerably underperforming right now, and once those numbers regress to more typical levels, his results should see a corresponding improvement. Gibson’s reduced strikeout rate (11.9%) is of some concern, but his walk rate (7.1%) is solid and he is getting a lot of ground balls (51.9%), which is what you would hope for given his affection for the sinker. With an innings pitched limit rumored to be in the 130-150 range, Gibson may have only three or four more starts to improve his debut season. He is probably a lock to crack the 2014 roster no matter how well he finishes, but you can bet there will still be a lot of eyes watching in Twins territory. A couple strong starts to end the season would be welcomed by both Gibson and the Twins front office, which faces a third straight offseason full of questions about the starting rotation. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact

By virtually every measure, the Minnesota Twins are a very bad baseball team. Entering Friday night’s game against the Astros, the Twins offense ranked 21st in both runs scored and wRC+. The starting pitching has been horrific even by recent Twins standards, ranking last in ERA (5.18), last in xFIP (4.56) and last in strikeouts (302) by an embarrassing margin. Lastly, the defense has been mediocre (12th in DRS) to bad (27th in UZR), depending on your metric of choice. The team’s lone bright spot has been the bullpen, which has been great despite a lack of name recognition and chronic overuse from the outset (367.2 innings pitched, 5th most in MLB). So yes, the Twins have been bad this year.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Fortunately (or unfortunately, as I will argue), a few other teams have been worse. One of those teams is the Houston Astros, who are in town this weekend for a three game series at Target Field. The Astros know they are bad, and they are proud of it. From the moment GM Jeff Luhnow assumed control of the team, that has been the plan. Why? Because Luhnow is one of the smartest men in baseball, and he knows the best way to rebuild under the current CBA is to bottom out and embrace the suck. At 45-60 and virtually assured of a third straight 90-loss season, the Twins would be wise to do the same. That’s because in today’s MLB landscape, if you’re going to be bad anyway, you might as well strive to be the worst. With more and more teams locking up their best players to long-term contracts before they are able to hit the market, adding impact talent through free agency has never been tougher. Further, as evidenced by this week’s trade deadline (emphasis on dead), teams are valuing their controllable assets more than ever, making improvement via trade just as difficult. That leaves the international market and the draft as the only remaining avenues through which a team can dramatically improve its roster. The team that finishes lowest in the standings stands to benefit the most from both – in the form of the largest international spending pool and the number one pick in the amateur draft. Simply put, it pays to suck. Twins fans need look no further than Miguel Sano to understand the value that can be had on the international market. It’s an area they have taken some advantage of in recent years, but one where they could surely do more. As for the draft, the 2014 class figures to be much stronger than this year’s crop, with the top prize being NC State lefty Carlos Rodon – who likely would have gone number one to Houston over top selection Mark Appel had he been eligible as a junior. Of Rodon, Keith Law has stated: “[He] checks every box you might want to see in a potential first overall pick and projected No. 1 starter.” In other words, he’s just what the Twins roster doctor ordered. Heading into this weekend, the Twins trail the Astros by ten games for the worst record in baseball. They also have the White Sox, Marlins, and Brewers to contend with, among others. With 57 games remaining, the race for Rodon is still wide-open. So maybe you try to deal Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham to contenders, even if it means eating some salary to do so. Maybe you give Liam Hendriks one more shot to prove he can be a major league starter, and Chris Parmelee one more chance to show he can hit major league pitching. And maybe you give Joe Mauer a few more days off in the second half, to save those knees and extend his career behind the dish. I’m not advocating intentionally trying to lose, but it’s past time to worry about 2013. It’s time to embrace the suck. #p2c Originally published at pitching2contact

The Twins barely managed to avoid a shutout Wednesday afternoon, dealing catcher Drew Butera to the Dodgers for a PTBNL just before the 4:00 p.m. ET deadline passed. Drafted by the Mets in 2005, Butera has spent the past six years in the Twins organization. He has been up and down with the club over the past four seasons, having played in only 186 major league games in that span (and just two this season). Butera’s value is derived entirely from his defense, as his offensive numbers are just that – offensive. His career .182/.230/.263 line is bad even for a catcher, and his numbers over seven seasons in the minors (.217/.294/.320) are not much better. In fact, as noted by SI’s Jay Jaffe, few hitters have been as bad over the past two decades. What Butera does do well, though, is play defense.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] For the Dodgers, his acquisition means increased organizational depth at catcher. He will reportedly remain in Triple-A for now, and is set to join the Albuquerque Isotopes of the Pacific Coast League. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said as much in an interview with MLB Network immediately following the trade, adding that Butera will likely join the big league club in September as the third catcher. For the Twins, moving Butera creates some much needed roster flexibility at catcher. Chris Herrmann has proven a capable replacement in his short stint with the team, with more pop and the added ability to play a corner outfield position. The Twins also have Josmil Pinto putting up very solid numbers (.306/.410/.482) in his second season at Double-A, and this trade likely opens up a spot for him in Rochester. Further, after investing both a third- and a sixth-round pick on catchers in this year’s amateur draft (Stuart Turner and Brian Navarreto, respectively), there is no lack of depth at the lower levels of the system. There is also the financial component to consider. Under contract for $700,000 this year* and arbitration eligible for three more seasons as a Super Two, Butera was likely to be non-tendered this offseason anyway. A rebuilding team simply does not spend a million dollars on a backup catcher, especially one that hits about as well as I do. Trading Butera now simply moves that decision up a few months, and in doing so gives him a better chance to play somewhere else. It also frees up the team’s logjam at catcher and allows the front office to see what it has in Herrmann and Pinto. Overall, this deal will likely have little impact on the future of either franchise. From the Twins perspective, though, it’s at least another small step forward on the long journey back to relevance. #p2c *Per Cot's Contracts Originally posted at pitching2contact