Shobae

Personally I'm against trading Polanco, I think the thing people are forgetting here is that Arraez is arguably less durable than Polanco as well as a worse defensive second baseman (though both have inconclusive samples). With the shift ban I'd argue the position will become more difficult (though I don't think by a lot) which would make the gap in ability potentially even wider. So this could backfire not only defensively but also cost arraez health by playing a more demanding position than 1B/DH. Then there's the topic of Nick Gordon who, while he had a good season, was offensively worse than Polanco and also only did this over 443 PA so it's a massive gamble to have him fill in and expect to be able to fill in the lost value of Polanco. Though not as big of a risk as relying on rookies and prospects to do so. I would say keep Polanco because he is a proven major league level second baseman with proven MLB upside, if the twins are serious about competing again. If he ends up blocking someone that's a problem you'd like to have, instead of the opposite when you can't make up the production you traded away.

To my mind what the twins need if they're going to sign starting pitching is someone who can give them at least 150 above average IP. As it stands I think Joe Ryan is really the only twins starter with a clean bill of health who you could count on for 150 IP (according to baseball prospectus he hasn't had any non-covid injuries). But the rest of the rotation is an unknown in terms of how many innings they will throw. I think there would be little sense in bringing in a starter with good or even great upside but who will only throw 100-130 IP. Out of the list of 16 these are the starters who I think could realistically give the twins badly needed volume Quintana, Manaea, Taillon and Gibson are the four that I think have the highest probability of doing so. (You could argue for a few others maybe but they have higher risk). Except for Quintana none of them stand out as above average performers. You're getting at best league average performance and with gibson (though best record of health) there is also his age (35) which raises concerns. Also given the twins track record of "fixing" free agent pitchers I wouldn't assume they could unlock that next level of potential from manaea/taillon. The most interesting pitcher in this group is Quintana who does have some age based regression concerns, but over his career has shown an ability to beat predictive metrics (which don't buy into his performance this season) so I think he would be an above average starter, with good upside, who could give you 160ish IP. I'm 50/50 on whether the twins should pursue him, but given their deathly fear of FA starters he's perhaps the best option that is also realistic.