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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. cmathewson
    If you're investing money, you want to understand the risks and benefits. The risk here is that a large percentage of middle infielders decline precipitously from age 30 to age 32. That isn't an opinion, it's a statistical fact. Drew could be an outlier. But if you're a betting man, you don't bet on outliers.
  2. cmathewson
    Chuck Knoblauch says Hi. He had an OBP above .380 five times, twice above .400 and once at .448 (!). That was in 2006, when he hit .341 with 14 triples, 35 doubles and stole 45 bases. He also scored 140 runs. Since then, the best season for a lead-off hitter was Span had an OBP of .393 in 2009. Drew hasn't had an OBP above .333 since 2010.
  3. cmathewson
    Stupid Red Sox. Bogaerting all the shortstops.
  4. cmathewson
    Maybe that's why the Red Sox refuse to give him more than a one-year deal.
  5. cmathewson
    Premier talent? Justin Morneau was a third rounder. Koskie was a 26th rounder. In the second round, the Twins drafted Crain, Baker, Slowey, and Swarzak in successive years. Premier talent? Perhaps not. But neither is Drew.
  6. cmathewson
    One case does not an argument make. Bill James has a long and thorough analysis of the risks of investing in middle infielders past 30. The upshot: The vast majority are not worth it after age 32. There are exceptions, but they tend to be guys who are wiry and slight of build: Vizquel, Smith, Larkin, Trammel. For each one of those, there are 10 guys like Guzman or Knoblauch who started their declines at at 30 and were effectively done by age 32.
  7. cmathewson
    So you watched him play last year? I watched him in one game and he was not the same Ben Revere I remember in Minnesota. Much more tentative. Then again, it was just one game...
  8. cmathewson
    Jason Bartlett says hi. Bad example, but teams do trade shortstops.
  9. cmathewson
    Yep. Take the best player available. Manage your system through trades.
  10. cmathewson
    UZR was similar. Hicks had many more outfield assists.
  11. cmathewson
    You assume that the Twins have a shortstop who can platoon with Drew. Florimon was even worse against lefties than Drew last year, and every year. His platoon splits are similar to Drew's but worse. That's not a platoon. That's two switch hitters who should probably stick to left-handed hitting.
  12. cmathewson
    I agree with the posters who suggested the best case for Willingham: He mashes enough to raise his trade stock, whereupon we trade him at the end of July to make room for Sano, moving Plouffe tot he outfield in the process.
  13. cmathewson
    Seth, Q: Did you talk to anybody on the Twins staff to come up with this projection, or is it just reading the tea leaves?
  14. cmathewson
    Yes. It will be a top 50 pick for sure. Back when the sandwich round was 30 picks deep and the Twins picked towards the back of the draft, it was barely a top 100 pick (2007, e.g.). Coupled with the fact that this is the deepest draft in years, and the player they get will most likely be more valuable than Drew at this stage in his career. So, by June, you're already in the red as far as value, not counting the dollars and giving away whatever value you have in Florimon. If you calculate this by WAR and you consider Florimon a replacement player, you're getting 2 WAR and giving up a future 3-4 WAR player, worst case scenario. The case is iffy at best, especially in a year when you don't expect to contend.
  15. cmathewson
    Where do we get the two roster spots for Mastroianni and Kubel?
  16. cmathewson
    Yeah, he makes great sense for a team that expects to contend this year and doesn't give a care about money. He makes little sense for a team trying to figure out whom it can rely upon when they have a reasonable chance to content, and which cares a great deal about money.
  17. cmathewson
    The old "mystery team" tactic. Been used many a time by this guy. He can even say the Twins talked to him, which I'm sure they did, in December. One thing I don't get is the insistence on a long-term deal. This guy is in his decline years. His value will only go down over the life of a long-term deal. Thinking you need a long-term deal to justify a draft pick is an example of the sunk cost fallacy. Insisting on a long-term deal is throwing good money after bad. If the Twins were in on him (which I highly doubt), the kind of deal I would be interested in is a one-year deal with an option, where you highly discount the contract price to compensate for the loss of a draft pick. Since Boras rarely discounts anything, I also highly doubt Boras would go for that. he'd rather have his client working out on his own and waiting for an injury before he caves at this stage. Between the Twins not wanting to do this and Boras not wanting a reasonable deal for a guy who projects as a 2 WAR player for a couple of years and then drops off the table, I give this 1 100 odds.
  18. cmathewson
    When a lot of people think of Hicks, they remember his first 14 days, which were equally bad at the plate and in the field. After the turnaround, he was equally good at the plate and in the field. Which was not elite, but was as good or better than Ben Revere. That said, he has work to do. But you don't give up on the guy with the second best toolset in the organization because he started bad.
  19. cmathewson
    Can I like this twice? I understand it's tough to develop or acquire shortstops. But it is tough to watch the team that routinely fields one of the worst shortstops in the league. And the manager hasn't helped. He was reportedly the one who expressed his disappointment in Hardy, leading to that horrible trade. Shades of the Bartlett/Castro fiasco; or his love for Punto as an everyday player (to whom we paid everyday shortstop wages after a half a good year at the position). And who can forget Brendan Harris, who literally tripped over his own feet trying to cover the hole?
  20. cmathewson
    If he adds 20 lbs to his frame, he's a questionable defender at short. If he adds 30, he's a corner outfielder. You have to be light and lean to cover ground.
  21. cmathewson
    That chart seems right to me. He has the best range at the position I've seen around here since Gagne. Guzman showed flashes of it early in his career, but he had energy issues or something. As to his improving, he did improve greatly on the unforced errors as the season went along. They were prevalent early, and much less common late. So it is not out of the question that he could fight for #2 this year.
  22. cmathewson
    I read it as correcting an earlier assertion by Berardino that starting shortstop was an open competition. He based that claim on an interview with Florimon. Unlike last year, Florimon wasn't told the job was his. Apparently, Bartlett is trying to beat out Escobar for the utility job.
  23. cmathewson
    Really? Nothing about pitchers and catchers reporting?
  24. cmathewson
    Depends on the cost. If he's willing to take a discount and be primarily a bench bat.... But I don't think that is what he has in mind.
  25. cmathewson
    I don't know. A platoon seems plausible to me. He wouldn't languish on the bench if he plays three or four games a week and otherwise helps out in the bullpen. But Ryan has made a point of mentioning Fryer several times this offseason. So perhaps they want to give Pinto more starts at AAA than he could get up here.
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