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jeffk

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Everything posted by jeffk

  1. jeffk
    Yeah, but you don't know which one it's going to be.
  2. jeffk
    They did poorly in 2011, so they cut payroll in anticipation that attendance would drop. And so they're terrible and it has... and so they'll need to cut it again next year, so they'll be worse, so attendance will drop more. And so on. With a new, taxpayer-funded stadium.
  3. jeffk
    For a small-market team part of winning is underpaying guys and then moving on. Overpaying him now to somehow make up for the value we got from him early in his career may be good for Joe, but it's bad business for us. Having said that, I don't really mind that much overpaying one excellent franchise player. But there's no point in pretending that he is likely to earn every dime of that contract, even if he plays well.
  4. jeffk
    I was of the opinion that a good closer is a luxury for an otherwise mediocre team who would be better to spend their money elsewhere, but it's actually even more frustrating to blow a game when the team isn't winning all that many to begin with.
  5. jeffk
    Pretty much all of the individual players are hitting (in terms of OPS+) average or way above average (with the exception of Doumit and Valencia). This leads me to believe that if they're scoring fewer runs that other teams it's because they have an unsustainably low BA with runners in scoring position. I was at the game where they must have stranded 15 runners. At this early point I would look more at the individual hitting prowess we're seeing rather than the number of runs scored.
  6. jeffk
    My main take away is that hopefully Span, Mauer and Morneau are not busted but back to being productive players, even if it's a bit early to say for sure. That and Willingham is a beast. My hope is that these four guys stay and remain productive for a few years, until the next wave of strong prospects hits. At that point, buy or trade for a couple of serviceable pitchers and they have a real chance to be competitive. Right now, we know their pitching is absolute rubbish so I am less concerned whether or not they win and more concerned whether or not they hit.
  7. jeffk
    Man Texas sure has Perkins' number. Wonder what his deal is the last couple of days?
  8. jeffk
    Corey never seems to quite know how to handle Gladden. Can't say I blame him.
  9. jeffk

    Joe Mauer

    jeffk replied to a topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    Not sure if this was directed at my comment. I'm sympathetic to WAR being imperfect, but I suggest my point still stands: Joe Mauers are bad values the way Ferraris are bad values. It's not to say they're not awesome, but they're not in everbody's budget.
  10. jeffk
    strumdatjag - I agree that was the smartest thing they did this winter, to replace players with equivalent players that were slightly cheaper plus draft picks.
  11. jeffk

    Joe Mauer

    jeffk replied to a topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    I think this is just an indictment of how all "superstar" level players are overpaid. It's like buying anything else: you get the best value in the middle of the price-performance curve. "Superstar" players have ~$25M/yr contracts, which is $5M a win. The free agent market is chock full of 2-3 WAR players for $3-6M. It's just another way of saying there's only so much one guy can do, even if they're a true superstar (and not an arguably struggling one like Mauer). It's never worth it. And while the Yankees of the world might be able to sign such contracts anyways, the Twins can't afford it if they ever expect to win.
  12. jeffk
    This is a microcosm of the world at large. The major league players are making too much and the minor league players too little. Take an above-average but not phenomenal player like Cuddyer. If he made a cool $5M a year instead of $10M, you could give a substantial raise to every minor league player in the Colorado minor league system. I guess it would be a matter of changing various negotiating rules, or having major league salary caps, to make this happen.
  13. jeffk
    One point I'd make: today I didn't actually think Liriano looked that bad. His slider was breaking, control was reasonable, fastball was 92-93mph, a few strikeouts... he got kinda screwed by a mix of (really bad) fielding and unlucky breaks. I hope this start doesn't mess with his head.
  14. jeffk
    If there is one baseline conclusion from modern baseball data analysis, it's that as player value increases the number of players of that value decreases precipitously; or to put it the other way if you go down the skill level axis far enough the number of players of that level become infinite. This is the concept behind "replacement level". To me what this means is if you're picking a player, you'd rather have the guy who has a 5% chance of being better than replacement level and a 95% chance of being a total bust than the guy who has the 100% chance of being replacement level but nothing better. The problem is the Twins usually seem to pick the latter. To their credit, there have been a couple of non-roster invitees this Spring training that maybe fall into the former category, like Burroughs.
  15. jeffk
    I think for a team that has three middle infielders that are mediocre to passable hitters, two of which play shortstop, two of which have fluky or questionable hitting backgrounds, it becomes almost needlessly rigid to demarcate "starter" vs. "bench". Let the three of them play 2/3 of the games for the first couple of months and then adjust from there.
  16. jeffk
    Well, if that explains it it means the Twins pulled an above-average hitting shortstop and a solid setup-man off the scrap heap at a time when they were in desperate need of both. I guess I wouldn't bet on it, but we can always hope.
  17. jeffk
    I think the question with Maloney and Hollimon, who are putting up crazy good spring break statistics, is why? Unless there is evidence otherwise, I think you can only assume it's a small-sample fluke. If these two have turned corners, it should be possible to point to something specific - say, Maloney is all of the sudden throwing 96mph or something - that has caused the breakthroughs.
  18. jeffk
    that seems like a really strong batch of catchers from a relatively weak divison. I wonder how they compare to the rest of the majors.
  19. jeffk
    I think he's an interesting case because I often see him written off as "mediocre, 5th-starter-at-best". But as Parker points out, you see almost Liriano-like variation from month to month. Not that he has near the kind of stuff that Liriano has, but it's easier to be hopeful about a guy who shows flashes of really good play than it is about a guy who just goes out there every week and gives up 3-4 runs in 5-6 innings.
  20. jeffk
    Jack seems to be confusing "possible" with "likely". By the logic that some mediocre minor leaguers, have become excellent major leaguers, therefore this will happen to Parmelee, it's saying that *most* minor leaguers will become major league MVPs.
  21. jeffk
    I just really don't agree they shouldn't have picked up another veteran option in the bullpen. Setting aside pissing away $4M on Matt Capps, they made it clear they were looking for some more help by picking up Zumaya. Which was a smart move, but once you do it, you're saying, yeah, we need more bullpen help, at which point there is simply no conceivable reason not to have grabbed an solid veteran in a buyer's market for peanuts when Zumaya had about a 20% chance of making it through the season. Even if you buy the whole "rebuilding, let's raise some players internally" angle, there's no point not to grab a bargain to help avoid an embarrassing season, another of which will hurt fan confidence on the third year of a new stadium, setting up a downward spiral. Not that one bullpen pitcher would make all the difference but it wouldn't hurt. And there would still have been plenty of open spots for internal options.
  22. jeffk
    "Joe Mauer has provided $145.8 million in value to the Twins during his career, while being paid significantly less -- $57 million in total through 2011." We should have quit while we were ahead. When you sign that next contract, you never get the value back. Getting more value than you pay out is the only way a small-market team can compete.
  23. jeffk
    This should be a cool feature - looking forward to reading more.
  24. jeffk
    J.R. Towles, 152 games at AAA: .286/.389/.443 Drew Butera, 99 games at AAA: .211/.268/.292 I dunno, for a backup catcher, that sounds like upside to me. I mean, even if he hit .220/.280/.300 in the majors he would be WAY, WAY better than Drew Butera. And that doesn't seem like an unreasonable projection. Except, of course, he hasn't performed in the majors. Certainly we don't know why that is, and maybe he never will. But there must be a reason that he's much, much less successful in the Majors than AAA, and if he or coaches can figure it out, he could drastically improve. A 10% chance? Perhaps, but that's the definition of "upside": there's some non-neglibale chance. I think that's different than the chance of Butera performing in the majors, which is actually zero.
  25. jeffk
    Your prediction on Butera may be correct, but that doesn't make it the right decision. At least Towles has an upside. Butera has none. An organization that is looking for bright spots would be well served to give the guy who has a strong minor-league track record a shot. Worst case, he can't hit? So what, we *know* Butera can't.
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