AlwaysinModeration

I didn't wanna see him go in 2018.
While I sat at home watching the Twins play on a perfect Minnesota night in September, Mauer came to the plate in the bottom of the 5th inning against the nemesis New York Yankees, and the ingredients were in place for this at-bat to be something special. The Twins were up 6-1 and the bases were loaded, and everyone watching knew Joe Mauer had exactly one thing on his mind: taking the first pitch, which he did, for a ball.
Because that was Joe's process. A quiet, understated patience that drove pitchers to frustration and subtly nudged umpires to up their game. Without saying a word, he communicated to his opponent that he was going to force him to deliver a pitch he could hit.
This was also evident in the broadcast booth, as Mauer's old teammate, Justin Morneau, commented on what we were about to see with just a tinge of excitement in his voice.
"I'll be surprised if Joe swings early, and I'll be surprised if he swings at anything out of the zone."
Joe took another pitch, a 96 mph fastball which caught the corner for a strike. Joe barely reacted while he kicked the dirt and began setting up for the next pitch. It was then that Morneau said something which made me catch my breath.
Upon Dick Bremer remarking that Mauer's average with RISP was still 5th in the league despite having dipped a bit, Morneau offered more than just platitudes: he offered an opinion.
"And that's the part that tells me he still has something left in the tank - he still should continue to play baseball when he can come through in those situations."
With Mauer's future uncertain and his contract coming to a close, this felt like a papal decree. For Justin Morneau, one of Mauer's closest friends, to make a statement like that during a broadcast?! Surely he would know what Mauer was planning for the future and wouldn't comment otherwise, right? 
Mauer took his third consecutive pitch for another strike on the outside edge, making it 1-2.
"Come on, Joe! Swing at 'em!" someone shouted from the stands.
Joe stepped out of the box and calmly looked around, resetting his focus and taking a big breath before watching the 4th pitch hit the dirt, and the 5th pitch follow right behind for a full count.
5 pitches, and the crowd was beginning to buzz without Joe ever taking the bat off his shoulder. 
"This is what Joe Mauer does, he makes you throw him something that he wants to hit."
And so it was, on this crisp autumn night, as Yankees pitcher Tommy Kahnle grooved a fastball directly down the center of the strike zone. and Joe Mauer let loose all the energy that he'd been holding in reserve up until that point.
Dick Bremer was immediately on the mic. "A high blast to center field! Going back is Hicks!"
"Go ahead, ball!" implored Roy Smalley.
"That ball is GONE, a grand slam!"
The only swing that Joe Mauer made was a no-doubter, and Target Field let their appreciation for their hometown kid be known. Sitting in my office with my dog asleep on my lap, it was all I could do to raise my arms in silent appreciation. He's still got it. He's still my guy.
"Like I said, there's plenty left in the tank right there. That's fun to watch," Morneau repeated. From his mouth to the front office's ears, I thought.
I didn't wanna see him go.
But baseball isn't a scripted narrative, and life doesn't revolve around sports, despite how much we believe it to be true. Mauer would take his final curtain call at catcher a few weeks later, while I tried to convince myself that this was simply him hedging his bets - this was just in case things didn't work out when he'd come back to the team to talk about a short extension. The lies we knowingly tell ourselves when the truth would be too painful.
Joe Mauer's legacy is one that is almost amusing in its stubborn adherence to form: an understated stature that loomed large when it needed to, never flashy, and knowing what was needed at the right time. In 2018, Mauer knew that it was time to be a dad, looking back on his career and deeming it a fine enough journey to be proud of. 
Later today, Joe Mauer will get the delicious icing of finding out that the baseball world wholeheartedly agrees with that assessment with his election to the Hall of Fame. A perfect ending to the career of an unassuming kid who, throughout it all, let his patience do the talking.
Here's to you, Joe.

A Closer Look


 
 
At this point, with the Twins busy Presidents Day weekend now officially come to a close, it can be said that most people (and those who frequent Twins Daily, especially) are aware that the hometown club completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. The trade, first reported on Saturday night, had the Twins receiving Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in exchange for mid-level shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios. Many were waiting for the other shoe to drop, certainly the Twins were not going to get Odorizzi - straight up - for a single prospect, and certainly not if that prospect was outside of their top 10 or 15 rankings.
 
After all, Jermaine Palacios, while a nice prospect and grades well - especially defensively - is 21 years old and playing at High A ball. Keith Law ranked Palacios at 24th best and MLB.com listed him as their 27th best prospect, and well behind other more highly touted shortstops in the system - namely, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon and Wander Javier.
 
So how is it that the Twins achieved this kind of trade? What does that say about Odorizzi?
 
The answer is probably much more complicated, Perhaps the Rays were, indeed, very smitten with Palacios. His tools do grade out to stick at shortstop, albeit his upside looks to be more of a utility man than a regular. It seems unlikely the Twins were bidding against themselves, to be able to get a straight 1 for 1 on Odorizzi, and he has been rumored to several other teams this offseason including the Angels, Nationals, Yankees and Orioles. How is it that among several teams vying for a competent major league pitcher, the Rays weren't able to add more than a single mid-level prospect in return?
 
Lets not forget, either, the Rays top prospect in their system - Willy Adames - is a shortstop and a potential star at the MLB level. Palacios figures to be, at minimum, blocked at the MLB level for several years by Adames who has already progressed to Double-A and was a Southern League All-Star.
 
The Rays not only traded Odorizzi for a single prospect, but the prospect they received is likely system depth? So perhaps the better question is, what does the trade say about the other clubs perceived value of Jake Odorizzi?
 
Who is Jake Odorizzi?
 
Depending on who you ask and under what context, you'll get a different answer to this question. Around Twins social media, I've seen such differing opinions - from "Should he be the Opening Day starter? He may be our best pitcher" to "He's, at best, a number 4 starter". I would contend that he is likely the middle ground between these two, very different statements.
 
As background, Odorizzi was a first round draft pick (2008 32nd Overall, Brewers), reaching Class A in the Brewers system. He was traded in the offseason following the 2009 season to the Kansas City Royals where he, by the 2011 season, was ranked as the Brewers number 1 prospect. While he wasn't the primary piece in the trade that sent him from Kansas City to Tampa Bay (Wil Myers headlined that blockbuster trade, sending James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City in exchange for Myers, Odorizzi, and two others.) he was a key element, ranking as the Royals 4th best prospect in their system at the time.
 
After receiving a cup of coffee in the majors in both 2012 and 2013, accruing only 37 innings pitched through those two seasons, he has 4 full seasons in the majors.
 
By standard metrics he's been a valuable mid-rotation arm - putting up ERA's of 4.13, 3.35 and 3.69 in 2014-'16, with park adjusted xFIP of 3.90, 3.96 and 4.44, respectively. His K/9 average during the first three seasons was a respectable 8.42, while maintaining an average HR/FB rate of 9.9%, or just slightly below the MLB average.
 
 
Wait. What about 2017?
 
Notice that I omitted 2017 from his stat lines? I thought you might. Odorizzi had, by most accounts, an abysmal 2017 season. Limited to 143.1 innings in 2017 after two trips to the Disabled List (hamstring, back injury), he saw regression in multiple areas. His ERA, at 4.14, the worst mark he's had since his rookie season - in conjunction with a horrid 5.43 FIP.
 
His 3.83 BB/9 mark fell well below league average and his HR/FB was an awful (almost impressively awful if I hadn't seen Kyle Gibsons 18%HR/FB mark) of 15% - all while seeing his GB% fall to 30.6%.
 
Unsurprisingly, Odorizzi gave up 30 home runs in 2017 and the long ball indeed was a crux, paired with a 7.52 ERA during the third trip though the order.
 
Fatigue, injury, and you can't even chalk it (all) up to bad luck, with a very low .227 BABIP.
 
 
So, what's the forecast for 2018?
 
Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs has a very compelling article that suggests Odorizzi may be an adjustment away from rectifying some of his issues from last season. His elevated four-seam fastball approach, which reached was tied for the highest 4S fastball height in the major leagues. Sawchik suggest that pairing the increased height with with increased height of his split-change, he may be losing "tunneling", or the vertical separation between the four-seamer and his split-change up, which generally produced his highest whiff rate (22%) in his arsenal of pitches.
 
Twins pitching coach, the newly hired Garvin Alston, has stressed that locating the fastball with his staff is a top priority and it would seem that as Odorizzi's fastball goes, so goes the season for Odorizzi.
 
As Brooks Baseball's player card for Odorizzi reads "(Odorizzi's) four-seam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers fourseamers".
 
In a nutshell, if he can effectively locate his fastball and mix in his split-change up with better tunneling, his chances of returning to a pre-2017 Jake Odorizzi are fairly good.
 
 
How Good Is He?
 
Twins Pitching Analyst, Josh Kalk, hired this past December and formerly a Senior Analyst for the Tampa Bay Rays likely has as much information on Odorizzi as anyone, and it would follow that recommendations he may have had on Odorizzi held some weight in regards to the Twins trading for him. That said, what can we expect from him in the upcoming 2018 season?
 
Odorizzi, at 4 full years in the league, has shown the consistency (apart from 2017, which may or may not be an anomaly) of a number 3 or 4 starter, depending on the rotation he's placed in.
 
Baseball Reference has similar pitchers as Danny Salazar and Jeremy Hellickson - and if he pitches like pre-2017 Odorizzi is a fair comparision, though I would argue he would be a perfect bridge between those two pitchers. He won't miss as many bats as Salazar and will miss more bats than Hellickson, when on.
 
Salazar, when healthy (and maybe not pitching in the same rotation as Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco), is likely a number 2/3 (his peripherals are great, with 12.8 K/9 and a FIP of 3.48 - but he walks too many hitters) and Hellickson is likely a number 5 (if you wanted to look at worst case scenario of progression for Odorizzi, I would look at the staggering decline of Hellickson post-2016.)
 
Conclusion
 
So, no. I don't believe Odorizzi is the Twins best pitcher. Jose Berrios will likely hold that mantle this season, barring a trade for an established ace or a surprise signing of Jake Arrieta. Even Santana, if healthy and capable or repeating (or coming close to repeating) his 2017 season would provide superior results.
 
That said, the Odorizzi trade gave the Twins something they need - an arm capable of holding down a middle of the rotation spot, keep them in games and get some K's when needed. He slots nicely in between Berrios, Santana when he returns, with Gibson occupying the 4 spot.
 
Temper your expectations, Twins fans. We didn't sneak one by the Rays and snag a front of the rotation starter, but we did get a young, controllable, arbitration eligible middle of the rotation-type arm - for essentially a High A projected utility infielder. That's pretty impressive.
 
 
 
Twitter: @four_six_three

After the inaugural season at Target field, the Twins brass made the fateful decision to remove the 14 black spruce trees from centerfield. When viewed in retrospect, this decision, it seems clear, has placed a curse on the franchise. Consider:
The Twins won 58% of their games in the first season in which they called Target Field their home, including a whopping 65% of the games they played at home in the great outdoors, with a piney backdrop.
Since felling the trees, the team has won 41% of their games over the past four years, and only 40% of the games at the treeless Target Field.
If the Twins had won 53 home games in 2011 (like they did in 2010), they would have come in second in their division. 53 home wins in 2014 would put the Twins tied with Oakland for the Wild Card. 53 home wins in 2012 would have won them the AL Central Division.
There is more to the #CurseOfTheTrees:
After uprooting the trees in January, 2011, the impact was almost immediately felt: Michael Cuddyer developed problematic warts on his feet within 2 months, Joe Mauer was diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness by April, and the Twins biggest ever international signee, Japanese star Tsuyoshi Nishioka, broke his leg in his sixth game in MLB - the day before the Twins were to play their first game in Target field without the trees. Morneau couldn't get back on track from his 2010 concussion all year, (including needing neck surgery by June) and by the end of the 2011, top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson was going under the knife for Tommy John.
More recently, the #CurseOfTheTrees has extended its limbs back down to the minor league system, causing it's two uber prospects to have largely lost seasons immediately after rising to the tops of the prospect lists; Sano undergoing Tommy John surgery (highly unusual for a position player) and Byron Buxton injuring and reinjuring his wrist before getting his season cut short in August from a head-on collision and concussion in his first game at Double A.
The misery hasn't end with the Twins who stayed within the organization. By the end of 2014, former Twins regulars had gone on to great success away from the treeless expanses of Target Field these past four years: winning batting titles in 2013 and 2014, multiple gold gloves, a 2012 Cy Young award (and a Top 10 finish in 2013), and a 2012 postseason MVP trophy. The trees were undoubtedly the root of the Twins firing a GM for the first time in countless years, and a manager for the first time in decades.
The Twins have to bring the trees back. When the trees are back in place, the team will quickly become (re)accustomed to hitting with the backdrop, giving them an advantage over their opponents. And instead of counting on a wayward Twins employee to turn the air conditioning on to the home team's advantage, the Twins fans can turn on their mini fans towards centerfield when the opponents bat. It will be like basketball fans trying to throw off opposing foul shooters.
 
Let's end the curse. #BBTT Bring 'em back.

After the inaugural season at Target field, the Twins brass made the fateful decision to remove the 14 black spruce trees from centerfield. When viewed in retrospect, this decision, it seems clear, has placed a curse on the franchise. Consider:
The Twins won 58% of their games in the first season in which they called Target Field their home, including a whopping 65% of the games they played at home in the great outdoors, with a piney backdrop.
Since felling the trees, the team has won 41% of their games over the past four years, and only 40% of the games at the treeless Target Field.
If the Twins had won 53 home games in 2011 (like they did in 2010), they would have come in second in their division. 53 home wins in 2014 would put the Twins tied with Oakland for the Wild Card. 53 home wins in 2012 would have won them the AL Central Division.
There is more to the #CurseOfTheTrees:
After uprooting the trees in January, 2011, the impact was almost immediately felt: Michael Cuddyer developed problematic warts on his feet within 2 months, Joe Mauer was diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness by April, and the Twins biggest ever international signee, Japanese star Tsuyoshi Nishioka, broke his leg in his sixth game in MLB - the day before the Twins were to play their first game in Target field without the trees. Morneau couldn't get back on track from his 2010 concussion all year, (including needing neck surgery by June) and by the end of the 2011, top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson was going under the knife for Tommy John.
More recently, the #CurseOfTheTrees has extended its limbs back down to the minor league system, causing it's two uber prospects to have largely lost seasons immediately after rising to the tops of the prospect lists; Sano undergoing Tommy John surgery (highly unusual for a position player) and Byron Buxton injuring and reinjuring his wrist before getting his season cut short in August from a head-on collision and concussion in his first game at Double A.
The misery hasn't end with the Twins who stayed within the organization. By the end of 2014, former Twins regulars had gone on to great success away from the treeless expanses of Target Field these past four years: winning batting titles in 2013 and 2014, multiple gold gloves, a 2012 Cy Young award (and a Top 10 finish in 2013), and a 2012 postseason MVP trophy. The trees were undoubtedly the root of the Twins firing a GM for the first time in countless years, and a manager for the first time in decades.
The Twins have to bring the trees back. When the trees are back in place, the team will quickly become (re)accustomed to hitting with the backdrop, giving them an advantage over their opponents. And instead of counting on a wayward Twins employee to turn the air conditioning on to the home team's advantage, the Twins fans can turn on their mini fans towards centerfield when the opponents bat. It will be like basketball fans trying to throw off opposing foul shooters.
 
Let's end the curse. #BBTT Bring 'em back.