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AlwaysinModeration

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  1. AlwaysinModeration
    After the inaugural season at Target field, the Twins brass made the fateful decision to remove the 14 black spruce trees from centerfield. When viewed in retrospect, this decision, it seems clear, has placed a curse on the franchise. Consider:
    The Twins won 58% of their games in the first season in which they called Target Field their home, including a whopping 65% of the games they played at home in the great outdoors, with a piney backdrop.
    Since felling the trees, the team has won 41% of their games over the past four years, and only 40% of the games at the treeless Target Field.
    If the Twins had won 53 home games in 2011 (like they did in 2010), they would have come in second in their division. 53 home wins in 2014 would put the Twins tied with Oakland for the Wild Card. 53 home wins in 2012 would have won them the AL Central Division.
    There is more to the #CurseOfTheTrees:
    After uprooting the trees in January, 2011, the impact was almost immediately felt: Michael Cuddyer developed problematic warts on his feet within 2 months, Joe Mauer was diagnosed with bilateral leg weakness by April, and the Twins biggest ever international signee, Japanese star Tsuyoshi Nishioka, broke his leg in his sixth game in MLB - the day before the Twins were to play their first game in Target field without the trees. Morneau couldn't get back on track from his 2010 concussion all year, (including needing neck surgery by June) and by the end of the 2011, top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson was going under the knife for Tommy John.
    More recently, the #CurseOfTheTrees has extended its limbs back down to the minor league system, causing it's two uber prospects to have largely lost seasons immediately after rising to the tops of the prospect lists; Sano undergoing Tommy John surgery (highly unusual for a position player) and Byron Buxton injuring and reinjuring his wrist before getting his season cut short in August from a head-on collision and concussion in his first game at Double A.
    The misery hasn't end with the Twins who stayed within the organization. By the end of 2014, former Twins regulars had gone on to great success away from the treeless expanses of Target Field these past four years: winning batting titles in 2013 and 2014, multiple gold gloves, a 2012 Cy Young award (and a Top 10 finish in 2013), and a 2012 postseason MVP trophy. The trees were undoubtedly the root of the Twins firing a GM for the first time in countless years, and a manager for the first time in decades.
    The Twins have to bring the trees back. When the trees are back in place, the team will quickly become (re)accustomed to hitting with the backdrop, giving them an advantage over their opponents. And instead of counting on a wayward Twins employee to turn the air conditioning on to the home team's advantage, the Twins fans can turn on their mini fans towards centerfield when the opponents bat. It will be like basketball fans trying to throw off opposing foul shooters.
     
    Let's end the curse. #BBTT Bring 'em back.
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    Right now, one of the 30 best shortstops in the game, coming off a championship season - who should be earning a multi-million dollar salary and starting on a daily basis - is cooling his heels without a team. Other, inferior players occupy starting spots on teams across the league, including, most obviously, the Twins.
     
    By now, most folks are aware of the circumstances that have forced Stephen Drew to sit out the opening part of this season. His signing is attached to a draft pick compensation, which has dried up his free agency market. Any team signing him would lose a valuable draft pick in the June draft; either their first round pick, or their second rounder if their first round pick is one of the first 10. If he is signed, Drew's former team, the Red Sox, stands to gain an extra pick in the June draft--a supplemental pick between the first and second round. But Boston only nets this pick if a team signs Drew before June 4.
     
    In recent years, MLB teams have grown to increasingly value early round draft picks, and therefore have been increasingly loathe to give them up in exchange for signing quality free agents (who aren't at the most elite levels). This year, the draft is considered extremely strong, making it even less likely for teams to sacrifice their first (or second) round pick.
     
    The presumed outcome of the Drew situation is that after June 4, he will quickly be signed by a team. By waiting until after the draft, the team will therefore avoid forfeiting a draft pick. This outcome has a clear negative outcome for Boston - it means that Boston will lose out on that supplemental pick they stood to gain.
     
    The Twins have an obvious incentive not to sign Drew. They lose their second round pick by signing him. And this makes sense, as the Twins have relied on developing a strong farm system to get their organization back on track after down years.
     
    But the Twins also have incentives to sign him before June 4:
    1. They are fielding a sub-par SS in Pedro Florimon. The Twins' overall early 2014 performance has surprised many. This early success has leading to more optimism about 2014 that wasn't there for most at the beginning of the season - and improving their weakest position, SS, would improve their overall likelihood of success this year.
    2. Come June 4, there may be several suitors for Drew's services, when the draft pick sacrifice evaporates. It may be very hard for the Twins to succeed in landing Drew when faced with competition to sign him.
     
    Therefore, given the various incentives for the Twins and the Red Sox, it is in both of their interests to work out a deal before June 4. As we know, trading draft picks form the coming draft is not allowed. So to make this work, the Twins and Red Sox would need to work out a trade of players in their systems. They need to trade some prospects.
     
    The question is what kind of trade would be fair. For Boston, they should be willing to trade anyone that is valued less than that supplemental pick they stand to gain. For the Twins, they should be willing to accept anything from Boston that is roughly equivalent (or slightly less) to the second round pick that they would sacrifice.
     
    The Twins would also need to give something back in the trade. Therefore, the quality of what Boston would give up could be increased, because they would also be getting a (lesser) prospect back from the Twins.
     
    Here is what I suggest:
     
    Twins trade Luke Bard for Anthony Ranaudo. And then they sign Stephen Drew. The Twins lose their second round pick, but get back a quality arm. I'd prefer Henry Owens or Matt Barnes as the return, or Trey Ball (as a player to be named later, since he can't be traded until after June), but I am suspicious that these would be too far of a stretch.
     
    I think this would be a creative solution to an inefficiency in the market the current draft system has created. It would get Drew playing, as he deserves to be, it gets the Twins a better SS (while there is debate over Florimon's worth, I don't hear anyone arguing that Pedro Florimon is a better overall SS than Drew), it lets Boston get the supplemental pick they might otherwise forego, and it allows the Twins to get something in return for sacrificing their second round pick.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    That's the line I am setting for the number of Twins who are traded away before the next 24 hours elapse. I was going to set it at 1.5, but I think this line is more, well, in line.
     
    What have you got? Over, or under?
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