Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3128[/ATTACH]Earlier this week, the Philadelphia Phillies signed former Twin Delmon Young to an interesting one-year deal. The Phillies set parameters within the deal that stated Young needed to maintain a certain weight in order to have incentives kick in. As baseball observers may have noticed, over the years, Young’s weight would ebb and flow. For instance, when the Twins acquired him from the Rays, he had slimmed down to a healthy 215 thanks to a hard regiment in 2008. That number however would balloon to 239 by September 2009. To his credit, at age 24, he dropped over thirty pounds and came into camp at 207 in 2010. That year, in which he hit .298/.333/.493 with 21 home runs, was, by far, his best season of his career to date. That would not last as Young would add more weight the following offseason. In an interview with TwinkieTown.com prior to the 2011 season, assistant GM Rob Antony said this about his significant weight loss: Young showed up to camp in 2011 not only heavier but supposedly more muscular. Of course, he would also witness a sizeable drop in all of his stats as well that year. That’s when the Twins had enough of his poor defense and his inconsistent offensive output and traded him to Detroit for next to nothing. This past year, Young was said to have been playing at 225. On Tuesday, the Phillies’ physical showed him at 238. Young’s explanation for the fluctuation in weigh since last year was, as he says, due to “some ice cream and good luck cakes” found in the clubhouse. Perhaps the Phillies have analyzed his performance in conjunction with his weight and realize that he produces much better when he’s between a certain figure. For Philadelphia, they are saying he needs to weigh less than 230 three time and fewer than 235 pounds the final three times for him to obtain optimal production – which would then led to an additional $600,000 for him. If he could offensively replicate what he did in 2010 be worth a little over half a million? Think about it. A team with a savvy numbers-crunching staff may discover the next Moneyball breakthrough based on the scale. Young’s story is reminiscent of another former Twin – one whose shapely form now greets fans outside of Target Field. Unlike Young, Kent Hrbek’s tale originates from an era when offseason workout schedules and owner investments’ in players were not nearly as obnoxious as they are now. There was no Twitter to provide a snarky remarks about weight. And, as opposed to modern times, you could be sure there was not an internal statistical analysis department running studies on production based on optimal weight. (Not that this is done now, either.) Today, almost all players on the field seemingly have bodies like P90X background actors. Outside of Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval, there are no Pucketts, Gwynns, Kruks and Hrbeks with such impressive love handles. Even though there were more players in that era carrying a few extra pounds, Hrbek’s weight was no less of a topic of conversation among reporters. In 1984, at the young age of 24, Hrbek’s physique was compared to a local Floridian celebrity. No, not Miami Vice’s Don Johnson. Rather, it was Shamu, the nearby Sea World’s famous killer whale. Hrbek, who had entered his major league playing days at a trim 200 pounds, had gained nearly forty pounds in two years. Heading into his fourth season with the team, jokes were flying around the spring camp in Orlando. One report said that during the designated weigh-in, Hrbek stepped on the team scale and it spat out a card saying: Come back when you are alone. While that was a fabricated clubhouse talltale to give the hometown hero a good natured ribbing behind closed doors, one player took the message public. Tinker Field, home to the Twins’ spring training until they moved to Ft Myers, was, like most low-level minor league stadiums, rung with advertising on the outfield walls. One section pimped out the nearby Sea World. Adored with the famous killer whale, somebody taped the number “14” on the chest. (This, Hrbek later revealed in his book “Tales From The Minnesota Twins Dugout”, was the work of Mark Portugal. Pretty ballsy work from a guy who was a 21-year-old AA pitcher at the time.) Of course, this would not be the last his el bees would come into question. While he weighed a reported 236 in 1984 – a year in which he finished runner-up for the AL MVP - that figured climbed to 245 in 1985. By spring camp of 1986, it would be near 250 and be the focal point of the media as the team reported to Orlando. The quarter-ton drew plenty of attention but then-manager Ray Miller did not seem the least bit concerned. “Everyone has heard his weight and jumped to the conclusion that he’s gotten fat,” Miller told reporters. “But it’s not true. We had people working with him lifting weights three times a week during the offseason and he looks better than he’s ever looked. He told me for the first time he can go to the beach and take his shirt off without being embarrassed.” Miller had sent him and some teammates to work out over the winter at the University of Minnesota – which was a far more rigorous from his previously rumored offseason workouts which involved bowling once a week. Hrbek’s habits were infamous. He would drink, smoke and eat in the clubhouse. Sometimes all at once. In 1988, media members enter the clubhouse post-game to find a shirtless Hrbek housing a cigarette, holding a beer in one hand and an ice-cream sandwich in the other. The first baseman would dip the treat into the beer and then take a bite. He told reporters that “it softens up the ice cream. Maybe there’s some money in it. You know, like when the chocolate hits the peanut butter.” Roughly around the same time in ’88, when Twins fans showed up at the hotel they were staying at, Hrbek sat at the bar and drank beers with them. In 1991, Marty York of the Toronto Globe and Mail described Hrbek as “an obnoxious creature with a penchant for annoying those around him. Hrbek’s repertoire of chicanery has been known to include such actions as blowing cigarette smoke in the general direction of a teammate’s face.” Drinking and smoking are not patterns of a player hoping to play at an elite level for an extended period of time like, say, how a guy like Jim Thome embraced yoga to maintain flexibility at age 41. In addition to eschewing regular workouts and stretches, dieting on fatty foods, beers and Camel Lights would likely shorten any career. For Hrbek, longevity never was the goal. He went into his age-32 season in 1992 looking to silence the whispers that his ability to play at a high level while pulling a 250 pound piano behind him would not be reduced. That campaign did not get off to a great start when he busted up his shoulder in spring training and staffers were questioning whether if there had not been a K-Car attached to him, he might not have been injured. Still, he did quite well early on. Through June 9 of that year, he was hitting .326/.446/.570 in his first 167 plate appearances. That day, a Kansas City reporter wrote up a piece which asked the question what Hrbek might be like if he focused on staying in shape: Hrbek went on to point to fellow National League chubster, John Kruk, who was leading baseball in average, as an example. “The guy’s hitting over .370,” Hrbek said. “That’s one for the fat boys.” Of course, over his final 303 plate appearances after that article, Hrbek hit just .201/.308/.324 with 8 home runs. Both Kruk and Hrbek would be out of the game before their age-35 seasons – a rather remarkable thought considering the need in the game for power-hitting left-handed designated hitters. Hrbek did it on his own terms, citing his need to step away from the game and be with his family. Maybe emotionally he was ready to make that decision although his body was definitely there on the assist. After playing in an average excess of 140 games per season from age 22 to 28, after that, when he experienced the most weight gain, he averaged less than 112 per year. He was breaking down like a 1980s Ford truck. In the end, Hrbek was, essentially, a precursor to Park & Recreation’s Ron Swanson. He ate what he wanted, he drank, he smoked, and he avoided all that physical labor and just did not care. He enjoyed himself. That did not mean he did not take pride in his work. He was truly a naturally gifted player who took his talents as far as they could. He could hit the tar out of the ball. The problem was that it was a truncated career. Had he jogged, mixed in a salad, done yoga, whatever, he could have played four more years. Maybe his 1990s would have been more fruitful. Maybe we would be discussing his Hall of Fame potential right now. Who knows? That, however, is not a part of the Hrbek ethos. He did not need the awards or the accolades. He was satisfied with two very important team awards. He did not care about seeking more money in free agency because he wanted to play at home. He enjoyed himself, even if that meant indulging his vices in exchange for a higher salary or a longer career.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3078[/ATTACH]Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins and catcher Drew Butera avoided arbitration and agreed to a one-year, $700,000 contract, an almost assured sign that Butera will be on the roster as the team’s third backstop. Why, you ask, might the Twins invest almost a million dollars in a player who is completely expendable as the epitome of a replacement level player? Consider this: Over the past three years Butera’s OPS (.497 OPS) has been the worst in the American League and the second worst in all of baseball. Only the Giants’ Emmanuel Burriss has had an OPS lower than Butera. This, for all intents and purposes, should be the definition of replaceable. Almost all of the rational for his retention revolves around his defensive prowess. In fact, Googling “Drew Butera” and “Defensive Prowess” pings back numerous articles using that phrase to describe him. Much like focusing on someone’s “good personality” to conceal other glaring flaws (i.e. nasty body odor, operates a baseball blog, etc), “defensive prowess” feels like a similar smokescreen to avoid stating the obvious about his bat. But how “prow” is his defense? This question is harder to answer as there is no definite measurement or widely available statistic that accurately portrays a catcher’s value based on things like game-calling, framing and/or controlling the run game. One can look at a stat like caught stealing but that tells as much of a story of a catcher’s skill has fielding percentage does a shortstop or outfield assists speak towards a right fielder. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast – now an analyst for the Houston Astros – showed the baseball world just how much value could be placed on a catcher’s framing ability. By his methods, having a catcher who can coax out a borderline strike could save 15-20 runs per season – the equivalent of one or two wins. Conversely, a bad catcher could cost their team the same amount of runs. Of course, while this data is fascinating, it is something that has not been automated by any sites to make this information publicly available so we do not know if Butera’s technique save or cost the Twins runs. One thing we do know is that Butera has a strong track record of throwing runners out. In 2011, possibly because of Carl Pavano’s disregard for the run game, the Twins paired him with Butera who has show a propensity to cutting down base-runners in his minor league career. According to his Baseball-Reference.com stats, between 2005 and 2011, he nabbed 42% of all would-be thieves. This past year, his caught stealing rate plummeted and he managed to throw out just four on the bases. In George Will’s Men At Work -- an examination of some of the game’s finer points through the eyes of the best players at the time -- teams will track a catcher’s catch-and-release time which is dubbed “pop-to-pop” time. Pop-to-pop time is a measurement used by coaches to separate good catcher arms from bad ones. This means they are stopwatching from the moment the ball hits the catcher’s glove until it smacks the middle infielder’s mitt. In the book, an unnamed coach rattles off pop-to-pop times. 1.94 seconds: Good. 2.12: That base is good as gone. 2.04: M’eh. 1.85: Nailed ‘em. Overall, the difference between being ninety feet closer to scoring a run or gaining an out is approximately one-hundredth of a second. Naturally, the ability to throw runners out is tied to the pitcher keeping the runner from breaking early. This brings me to the Twins’ trio of backstops. While theft is a shared liability with the battery mate, having a pitching staff that has total disregard for the running game reduces the effectiveness of a defensive catcher. The 2012 Twins were labeled as one of the worst at base-runner attentiveness. That said, Butera’s ability to catch and release provided this staff with the best odds of thwarting larceny. [ATTACH=CONFIG]3077[/ATTACH] In an inexact study, a stopwatch has shown that over the course of five throws to second, Butera’s “pop-to-pop” time averages out to be the best: So Butera has a better arm or better footwork or a quicker release than the other two, at least in this small sample. Observationally, Butera was able to make these quick throws while handling sliders down and away on at least two of those five examples. This should not go ignored. Over the entire season, Baseball Info Solution has assigned a value on a catcher’s ability to subdue the run game. Of the Twins’ three, Butera (0) outperforms both Mauer (-3) and Doumit (-1). So, strictly speaking controlling the run game, Butera’s effect on the overall team’s performances is slightly better than Mauer and Doumit’s but minimal according to BIS. This begs the question, is being able to control the run game worth paying nearly a million for a third catcher? Someday we may have the tools to be better equipped to answer that question. For now, the Twins are committed to bringing him back – for better or worse.

You only have two choices: will he be better or worse in 2013?[ATTACH=CONFIG]3059[/ATTACH] 2012 Recap There are two things you won’t find in Minnesota: A liquor store that will sell you booze on Sundays and consistency at the shortstop position. The Twins were hoping that the latter problem would be solved by Brian Dozier. Dozier, a shortstop drafted by the organization (another rarity), was given the opportunity a month into the season to claim the role as his own. Alas, he did not. Dozier’s stock shot up in the spring when the 26-year-old earned the praise of coaches and media members based on his performance in Florida. Sent to Rochester to begin the year, overall suckitude by the affiliate’s parent team incited his May call up. In his first 10 games, he provided false hope by hitting .286/.318/.476 with two home runs. Once scouting reports spread his numbers dropped faster than fan’s interest in the team. He got extremely pull-happy. His plate discipline disappeared. His frustrations at the plate seemed to lead to defensive miscues. Demoted in August, Dozier returned to Rochester and continued where he left off with the Twins. Why He’ll Be Worse In 2013 After a fast start, opponents quickly exploited his holes in his swing and his numbers dropped. His plate discipline swiftly eroded as team’s started to attack the outer-half of the zone and he managed to walk in under 5% of his plate appearances. To make matters worse, after being sent down to Rochester in August to work on this, he walked just twice in his final 76 PAs (2%). It was like his soul was crushed. While his minor league track record is decent enough, it is possible that teams have figured out his number and will play him like a fiddle (see: Valencia, Danny) until the team is forced to admit he is not capable of being an everyday player. Why He’ll Be Better In 2013 As mentioned above, he’s put up decent enough numbers in the minors and, in most cases, hiccups are to be expected as a player ascends to the next level. The struggles in 2012 could simply be part of a player’s natural learning curve. Plus, he’s reunited with his former minor league hitting coach Tom Brunansky, who has been credited with improving his approach while with New Britain. Together the pair may be able to help make the necessary adjustments to adapt to the competition. What will it be? A continuation of his 2012 season or will the 27-year-old finally emerge as a starter in this lineup? Click on this link to see our official thread AND take the survey. Then leave us a comment saying why. Read from our past For Better Or Worse series: Joe Mauer.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3040[/ATTACH]For a significant portion of the year, Josh Willingham fueled the Twins offense and gave the fans something to watch while the team sank deeper in the standings. He proved that Target Field was not resistant to home team home runs. In fact, his 21 home runs at home easily trumped long-standing fan-favorite Michael Cuddyer’s 17 hit in his two years at Target Field (2010-2011). Jim Thome managed to swat 21 home runs as well but needed 14 more plate appearances than him to do so. Fan looking for a reason to believe in the 2013 team will be interested to know if Willingham will continue his vicious pace set last year. Unfortunately, indications suggest that his home run total is almost certain to decrease in 2013. And here’s why: Stats. [Drops mic; leaves the stage.] But stats kept hometown hero Jack Morris out of the Hall of Fame even though he single-handedly won the World Series for the Minnesota Twins and once saved a baby seal or something. So why should we believe stats? [Walks back on stage. Picks mic back up.] True and I totes agree that we should burn down all stats and calculators and stuff right after I finish this piece but, for now, hear me out. One measurement that suggests the Willinghammer will see a dingers decline in 2013 is because of his home run distributions -- as captured by HitTrackerOnline.com. For those unfamiliar, Hit Tracker charts all home runs hit and, through methods that go beyond my mathematical capabilities, calculates their “true landing spot.” Whereas ballpark present distances that are based mostly on the architecture of the existing facility and projecting where the ball would have landed had it not have been stopped by, say, the batter’s eye in center field, HitTrackerOnline.com factors in atmospheric data and speed off the bat to generate their data. This, in theory, should be a more accurate representation of a player’s true abilities to hit and sustain home runs. With their data, Hit Tracker has made three classifications for home runs. Those which clear the fence by 20 vertical feet and pass it by 50 feet are considered a “No Doubt” home run. Think Giancarlo Stanton’s 494-foot bomb off of new Twins pitcher Josh Roenicke. At the other end of the spectrum are home runs which exit the field by 10 vertical feet or land one fence height past the wall. These are labeled as “Just Enough” home runs. Just Enough home runs are wall-scrapers like Tampa’s B.J. Upton’s 323-foot home run off of Ervin Santana which nearly grazed the foul pole and the left field wall at Tropicana. Finally, everything else in between is considered “Plenty.” Based on their figures, a standard distribution of home runs have been 18% No Doubt, 55% Plenty and 27% Just Enough. If a player is well above the Just Enough 27% threshold, the prevailing assumption is that he had good fortune of having a few additional balls escape the playing surface thanks to weather, ballpark configurations or simply the blessings of the baseball gods. In Willingham’s case, he had a whopping 45% of his home runs fall under the “Just Enough/Lucky” category. What this means, if the Hit Tracker theory holds water, is that Willingham’s home run totals will start to slide back to his career norms – which had been 22 heading into last season. Furthering this idea that he is poised for home run decline is the fact that Willingham is coming off a career year in terms of home runs-to-fly ball ratio. In 2012, 21.2% of his fly balls left the yard - which was well above his career average of 15%. This will almost assuredly regress back to the mean as well. In terms of his home run totals, Willingham is almost a text book case for regression. That said, it does not mean he will drop drastically in value. As I stated prior to his signing, he is almost the ideal hitter for Target Field – a right-handed pull-hitter with power. More than that, Willingham stresses patience in his approach at the plate leading to a healthy walk rate and on-base percentage. Perhaps it went unnoticed because of his power numbers, but he chased after just 21.7% of out-of-zone pitches, the fifth lowest rate in baseball last year. That was lower than such plate discipline luminaries as Denard Span and Joe Mauer. That skill set should ensure that he continues to provide a great deal of value even if a few fly balls fall short on the warning track in 2013.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3014[/ATTACH]In yet another Geek-less installment of Gleeman and the Geek, joining Aaron Gleeman on this week’s GATG podcast is Twins Daily’s Parker Hageman -- who fills in for the globetrotting John Bonnes. Podcasting live from Panino Brothers in Eden Prairie, the pair discuss the Twins’ involvement in sabermetrics, projecting the Opening Day roster, why no one wants Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum and the best of the remaining free agent pitchers, saying something nice about Samuel Deduno, New Year’s resolutions, and making friends with drunk women (#VoteWashington). Check out the latest episode via any of these channels: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2989[/ATTACH]When asked how he feels that the outsider perception of the Twins’ use of statistical analysis is behind the rest of the game, Jack Goin, the team’s Manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, simply replied “That’s fine.” Goin cites the St. Louis Cardinals as an example of how he wants his operations to be viewed. Whereas teams like Tampa, Cleveland, Boston and New York have been well-known and forthright about their endeavors into the statistical world, the Cardinals have been extremely stealth yet very much active in research. If it were up to him, he would just as rather have people continuing to overlook the team while they continue to improve. Over the last decade, the Minnesota Twins have developed a reputation of being an organization run on scouting or traditional ways. Just three years ago, the team’s assistant general manager, Rob Antony, acknowledged that the organization – born of harden scouts like Terry Ryan and Mike Radcliff – had been more focused on the traditional way of thinking. Stats, analysis and research were ignored. Goin would be given the difficult task of providing analysis to decision-makers who have, by and large, been resistant to the analysis. The truth is, Goin says, they view themselves as a middle-of-the-road team when it comes to using statistical analysis. There are the overachievers, there are a few on the bottom and the rest, like the Twins, reside somewhere in between. One way in which they have progressed in just a few shorts years is that Goin has turned to MLBAM’s Pitch F/X system – a relative unknown to the staff as recently has 2010 – when attempting to analyze potential free agent pitchers. “We’ll use it to decipher,” Goin said. “You get the scouting grades, let’s say, so you get the scouting grade and [the scout] puts a 5 on the curveball. So we go in and look at it and if the guy has been in the big leagues, now we can see maybe the curve is a little better than a 5 or maybe it is a little worse than a 5 or maybe it is right on based on rankings among other pitchers.” Goin and a dedicated full-time intern have used Pitch F/X to evaluate specific pitchers, a need that has no doubt grown exponentially with the Twins’ overwhelming need for serviceable arms. This offseason alone the team has added three pitchers to the rotation, all of which were likely examined in some capacity with Pitch F/X data. “We used it just a few weeks ago on a free agent pitcher we were looking at. We were talking about his sinker and trying to figure out what’s going on with it. He had been injured the last few years and we were trying to figure out where that sinker is in terms of when it was really good and where it is now. So we looked at it and tried to figure out how much vertical break was on it and how much horizontal break was on it and tried to distinguish some of the contact rates.” For those versed in Pitch F/X understand what the levels of break translate to can relate to what Goin is attempting to accomplish in his research. This is standard analysis that can be found regularly on sites like Fangraphs.com, BaseballProspectus.com and even on TwinsDaily.com. While this may seem like a rudimentary use of the information, making groundbreaking conclusions based on the data is not necessarily the object of even the front-running organizations. In 2009 interview, Tampa Bay Rays Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said that the challenge for teams using Pitch F/X is not finding new knowledge but rather using the system and data correctly to supplement existing evaluation tools. Trying to explain the intricacies of the data to life-long ball guys and what it means can be overwhelming, so Goin keeps it simple. Rather than inundate the organization’s decision-makers with vertical break figures or horizontal movement rates from the system, he simply uses it to levy an opinion as a scout would – perhaps with a greater advantage. Where a scout is able to pick up on mechanics, positioning other elements that cannot be captured with data alone, Pitch F/X can help provide a greater picture of how a pitcher’s “stuff” is working or not working over the course of a season. “Scouts gets [a pitcher] for one day. A major league [scout] gets them for four starts – or twenty-to-thirty innings. Who knows what happened in those four starts? Guys will tell you that they have 10 really good starts, 10 really bad ones and the rest fall in between. We try to verify or bring up questions to think about.” Because of the ability to capture and track with accuracy a limitless amount of pitches, Goin has expressed interest in affixing Pitch F/X cameras through the team’s affiliates to better capture their prospects’ developments. Of course, the cost of installation and an annual fee for having the system may prohibit this from becoming a reality. Going beyond Pitch F/X, Goin uses statistics and data to help uncover players found at the margins of the game – the Clete Thomases and Darin Mastroiannis of the world – whom the Twins can pick up through waivers. Additionally, he and his intern are integral in the process of identifying candidates in other organizations that could eventually get included in a trade. “We try to find not a hidden guy but a lesser known guy – someone not on all the prospect lists, maybe not on the scout’s radar for whatever reason it might be,” says Goin. “You try to find another guy we might at least talk about because when you are trying to make a trade, it’s not the easiest thing in the world to do. You get turned down a bunch before someone says ‘yes.’ You have to come up with multiple names.” Since his promotion to the newly-created position in 2011, Goin believes the team has made progress improving the research department – including implementing some medical tests provided to players in hopes of creating a baseline and understanding injuries better. If there has been one area of the game in which a team can quickly create a competitive advantage, it is being able to prevent or limit injuries. Still, the description of the working of Twins’ research department sounds quaint in comparison to some of the other organization’s efforts where extensive studies are conducted and a significant investment is made by the team in personnel and a support staff. In Houston, Luhnow created an entire department titled “Decision Sciences” run by Sig Mejdal, who, like Luhnow, was hired away from the Cardinals. They also added leading Pitch F/X analyst Mike Fast, who spends a portion of his day creating models and databases for the major league and farm system. Whereas teams like Tampa Bay, whose inner workings were well-documented in Jonah Keri’s book The Extra 2%, and Houston have aggressively beefed up their research departments the past few years, the Twins’ find themselves somewhere in the middle with the majority of teams in the game’s research-oriented revolution. Other teams too are embracing this philosophy and expanding their research departments – like the Kansas City Royals who appeared to be one of the non-stats teams just a few short years ago as well. This is a fact that does not seem to be missed on Goin and the lack of manpower is the biggest barrier for the Twins to do those types of analysis. “That’s definitely where the game is going. Sometimes it is a budgetary thing, sometimes it is getting the people who make the decisions to believe this is what we need to do.”

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2938[/ATTACH]The Minnesota Twins continue to stockpile arms for what could be an interesting competition for a rotation spot this spring. First reported by the Star Tribune’s LeVelle Neal yesterday, the Twins moved quickly and signed right-handed starter Rich Harden to a minor league deal to include a spring training invite. Harden, 31, missed all of 2012 after a shoulder strain necessitated rotator cuff surgery. Interestingly enough, the injury’s origin, Harden believes, was sustained in 2007 when he tore the capsule attempting to field a comebacker bare handed against the Yankees. The Athletics did not disclose the injury because of medical privacy laws. In order to combat the problem, the San Francisco Chronicle reported, Harden revamped his mechanics in 2008. The disruption in his shoulder may have sparked a lengthy list of other ailments as he tried to compensate for his original injury. When healthy, he has been a front-end type starter. In fact, dating back to 2008, no one has missed more bats than Harden. Armed with a lethal slider, Harden has a career swinging strike rate of 12.5% and has a career strikeout rate of 24.2%. Of course, the is plenty of risk suggesting that following a rotator cuff surgery, he may never fully regain his stuff prior to the repair. As Houston’s team physician, Dr. David Lintner, told MLB.com in 2007, unlike Tommy John surgery, rotator cuff repair is not nearly as easy to return from: Linter goes on to estimate that of pitchers who have complete tears of their rotator cuff, there is a fifty-fifty chance they get back on the mound. Harden could wind up this year’s version of Joel Zumaya: an oft-injured pitcher with tons of promise but ultimately ends up a failure to launch in Florida. That notwithstanding, the Twins have made a calculated signing and have acquired for pennies an arm that is capable of missing a substantial amount of bats – something lacking at the highest levels. If he does not pan out as a starter, Harden could still be a serviceable arm in the bullpen in a limited capacity. In addition to inking Harden, the Twins also announce their list of spring training invitees. The list includes pitchers Bryan Augenstein, Nick Blackburn, Deolis Guerra, Alex Meyer, Lester Oliveros and Anthony Slama; outfielders Brandon Boggs and Clete Thomas; infielders Jeff Clement, Chris Colabello, Ray Olmedo and Mark Sobolewski; and catchers Kyle Knudson, Danny Lehmann and Dan Rohlfing. Also revealed, starter Scott Diamond had a scope on his left elbow to remove some bone chips on Tuesday.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2929[/ATTACH]When Jack Hannahan signed with the Cincinnati Reds last week, this took yet another potential third base option off the board for the Minnesota Twins. Hannahan, a local product with above-average defensive prowess and a mediocre platoon bat from the left-side, appeared to be a given to land in Minnesota. With Terry Ryan’s statements that the team was going to push their incumbent, Trevor Plouffe, Hannahan’s left-handedness and superior defense felt like the logical fit. Perhaps less realistically, free agent Eric Chavez was also snapped up by a more competitive Diamondbacks team. The Twins also flirted a bit with the Cardinals and utility man Skip Schumaker but the Los Angeles Dodgers ultimately obtained the 32-year-old. Clearly the Twins have been putting forth effort in that market this offseason but will little progress. The focus shifted the past few weeks to acquiring starting pitching -- such as the recent signings of Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey -- and the third base position has moved to the back burner. How important is it that either the Twins find a suitable challenger to Plouffe’s position? Very, if you follow the data. Thanks to a collection of pitchers who allows for an exorbitant amount of contact, the Twins infielders were tested regularly this past season. In fact, their left side of the infield led the league in most balls hit into their respective zones in 2012. At third, Minnesota had 402 in-zone balls hit that direction -- the next closest was Boston at 385. Highest In-Zone Balls - Third Base 2012 [TABLE=width: 624] Team In-Zone Balls Twins 402 Red Sox 385 Royals 383 Giants 383 Rockies 370 [/TABLE](via Fangraphs.com’s BIS data) Plouffe, who handled a shade over 800 innings in the field last year, was marginal at best according to defensive metrics. His own revised zone rated of .691 was 22nd overall among third basemen with a minimum of 500 innings in the field. This was a fairly average mark considering the top third baseman by this metric -- Jack Hannahan -- was at .791. But more that that, Plouffe’s ability to make plays outside a third baseman’s standard universe was also poor in comparison to others. In 804.2 defensive innings, Plouffe was able to convert just 14 balls out of the standard zone into outs. Over ten other third basemen with fewer innings were able to make more outs on balls out of that zone. Another area of the game in which Plouffe needed work is turning double plays. In 2012, the Twins led all of baseball with 158 double plays turned. Part of that is a byproduct of having a high-contact pitching staff with ground ball tendencies combined with opponents who start a hit parade. Furthermore, when you lead baseball with the most batted balls into third and shortstop zones, you can expect a high number of double plays. Here’s the thing: With all the opportunities, with all the plays in zone, with all the base-runners, Plouffe started just 12 double plays all year (24th in baseball). With a high-contact staff, it is almost imperative that double plays are turned to help get the defensive off the field. So, Plouffe was converting on just 69% of plays inside his zone whereas the game’s elite were making outs on nearly 80% of their opportunities. This may not seem like a significant difference however for every ball that is failed to be converted into an out, it allows the opposing team to extend their half of the inning. With a high percentage of contact-oriented pitchers, this spells trouble. With the addition of similar high-contact arms in Vance Worley, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey, these figures are not likely to drop either, making that a fairly vital position for the team. With two months remaining until pitchers and catchers report, the Twins may begin to increase their shopping activity once again - specifically in the third base department.