Parker Hageman

[ATTACH=CONFIG]5629[/ATTACH]Robot umpires now? You wouldn’t blame Kyle Gibson for wanting them. A recent Wall Street Journal article took an in-depth look at Major League Baseball’s strike zone and found that some teams have benefited from an expanded zone while others suffered from shrinkage. Brian Costa consulted with the locally-owned Inside Edge, a Minneapolis-based company who specializes in harvesting video data for teams to use, and IE’s evaluating system combined with the MLB Pitchf/x system showed that an average of nearly 9% of all pitches were called incorrectly. While the definition of the strike zone is quiet clear however the human element influences the outcome of the calls during the game. Writes Costa: Among all the teams, Inside Edge’s data shows that the Twins have been the most wrongly discriminated against when it came to pitches inside the zone that were called balls this season. Just 44.3% of botched pitch calls that were missed were deemed favorable to the Twins. Has this negatively impacted the Twins 2013 season? As Costa’s points out, the Milwaukee Brewers, who at 55.3% have the highest amount of wrongly called pitches go in their favor, have nearly as bad of a record as the Twins. So it appears that even if the Twins had all the calls go their way, it still would not have changed the overall record much. What is interesting is that the Twins pitchers have an overall decent amount of strike zone presence. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x data, the Twins pitching staff has the second-highest amount of zone presence at 50.7%. Meanwhile, Inside Edge’s data suggests that Kyle Gibson has been one unlucky fellow – getting just 79.2% of in-zone pitches called a strike. Before you pick up your pitchforks remember Gibson’s in-zone percentage is one of the lowest in the game at 41.9%. Gibson’s chaotic nature combined with his rookie status may have made it difficult for umpires to side with him on his borderline pitches. However, there may have been another factor that influenced his poor strike percentage. While we all have seen the stories and data on Ryan Doumit’s framing issues, but Gibson was spared from having Doumit as his batterymate. Instead, Gibson has drawn Mauer for eight of his 10 starts. While Mauer has been proven to be an excellent receiver when it came to coaxing a call on the high strike, his ability to do the same with a pitch down in the zone was extremely poor. (As suggested in the WSJ piece, it may be due to his large statute which blocks out some umpires.) As a sinkerball pitcher, Gibson works down in the zone with that and a biting slider. With Mauer’s tendency of turning a low strike into a ball, it is no surprise to see a high amount of Gibson’s low pitches being called balls. [ATTACH=CONFIG]5630[/ATTACH] Gibson, a ground ball pitcher by trade, had his problems further exacerbated beyond the strike zone by the amount of grounders turned into hits – his .333 batting average of grounders was nearly 40% higher than the league average. Armed with a solid repertoire, Gibson figures to play a substantial role in the rotation for the Twins in 2014.

Hey E. Andrew, Just wanted to say this is some mighty fine research and presentation done for this piece. Very entertaining too, which isn't always easy when you are presenting topics such as this. In regards to the picture, I'm not sure you are attempting to draw this conclusion or that you are just hinting that the grip is giving him a knuckleball-effect, however, the above image of Deduno's grip is for his spike curve and not his fastball. I do believe are on to something about his spin rate and why his fastball has been so difficult to hit. Keep up the good work.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]5128[/ATTACH]The ball explodes out of the pitcher’s hand. You immediately pick up the spin and conclude it is close enough to a fastball that he must be trying to go upstairs with a low-90s four-seamer. However, in the middle of your stride, you recall the hitting coach’s scouting report that says the pitcher has a tendency to turn to the changeup at any point. Suddenly, the spin doesn’t quite look like that four-seamer and you realize: Oh god, it’s not the fastball. In a fraction of a nanosecond, you try to adjust to the speed differential. The message is sent from your brain to your extremities but it’s too late. With all of your momentum going towards the pitcher, it is like trying to stop a runaway train. Your hips are already driving forward but the pitch, like Delta airlines, is slightly delayed on its arrival. It’s at this point when you confirm that the ball is tailing away and the bottom is falling out. You keep your hands back in efforts to react to the off-speed pitch. You realize that there’s no way you can do anything of use with this pitch. It’s quickly fading down and away. At best, you can flick it over the heads of the left-side infielders or maybe foul it off into the seats and live to fight another pitch but, either way, you are committed. You can feel your hands depart and bring your bat around to swish its way through the swing zone. With your weight all on the front leg, you make a last ditch effort to punch the ball. By this point, the ball is at the southern-most portion of the strike zone and still falling. The bat makes an empty woosh as it clears the plate. *** Over 20 percent of all swings on Jared Burton’s changeup conclude like that – without any contact. “I’ve been throwing it since college, really,” Burton says in his Carolina drawl. “It’s always been just a grip but comes out of my hand much harder than a changeup.” Normal changeups, it is said, require about nine miles an hour of difference from the fastball. Rays closer Fernando Rodney, who is credited with having one of the best in the game today, has 12 miles per hour separating his mid-90s fastball from his low-to-mid-80s change. By comparison, Burton typically has just five. And yes, it does come out much harder than the average changeup. Burton’s 87.6 mile-per-hour velocity on his change registers higher than everyone but St. Louis’s Trevor Rosenthal (88). Burton says his particular grip gives him bit more movement than the standard changeups. “It’s basically a circle-change grip but I hold it out on the tip of my fingers more and choke it. It’s much harder and it’s got late down movement. It’s been a good pitch for me.” Over the past two years, it certainly has been a very good pitch for him. According to Fangraphs.com, his Pitch Value on his changeup has been worth 10.4 runs above average, the third-highest among relievers trailing just Tyler Clippard and the aforementioned Rodney. And, just this year alone, opponents are hitting just .152 off of it, one of the lowest marks in the game. The action earned it different description than just a changeup. After all, calling it a “changeup” would be a disservice to how impressive of a specimen the pitch actually is. “I throw it like changeup but it’s much harder with splitter movement hence the ‘splangeup’ - splitter action.” “I can throw it any time, righty or lefty,” Burton boasts. “It’s more of a swing-and-miss pitch but I can throw it for a strike a good bit. I can kind of throw it more where it fades in the zone or where it has more downward movement.” For the most part, pitchers tend to shy away from throwing their changeups to same-sided opponents. Teammate Brian Duensing acknowledges that he refrained from using his changeup on lefties because he felt the movement went into their swings. Burton does not share that hesitation because of the variation he has on it, that being able to drop it down or make it run. Over the past two seasons, he’s thrown 642 changeups – 315 to lefties and 327 to righties. It is confidence in the pitch that helped earn Burton a two-year deal with the Minnesota Twins. *** Now down 1-2 in the count, you step out of the box to clear your mind and regroup. That last pitch was all types of nasty. Over 30,000 people in the stadium and a million more watching from the comforts of their homes saw you look foolish. It’s late in the game. Your team needs a couple of runs to get back in this thing but the opportunities are wearing thin. What’s next? He’s got a mid-90s fastball that he can waste over the zone and change your eye level but he also has a decent slide piece that can cut down-and-in. Of course, you cannot forget a possible repeat performance of the changeup - he throws it great deal when he has a kill shot. You dig back into the batter’s box while requesting time and go through the possibilities. All in all, it feels like a guess. Look for the hard stuff up or in while trying to fight off the soft stuff down in the zone. Protect. You put your hand down, give the bat a few firm shakes towards the pitcher, raise the bat back up to your shoulder, exhale and settle in. *** Always keep hitters guessing. Play the mind game. “I never get too predictable,” Burton admits, repeating what pitching coaches have expounded upon him for more than a decade. “I like to be confident on all pitches but primarily everything works off my fastball command. I concentrate on that first in the bullpen, get my fastball command down and make sure I am getting out front with my release point and my off-speed work off of that.” Predictability can be a pitcher’s worst enemy. A changeup is called a changeup because it is supposed to be a change from the fastball. What’s more is that too many non-fastballs help hitters read the spin and the break. A solid fastball is needed in order to make the change work properly. Burton throws his changeup a lot but recognizes the need to mix in other offerings like his two fastballs -- a four-seam and two-seam – as well as his slider. Burton’s control of his fastball has not been was it was a year ago. According to PitchF/X data, in 2012 he threw his fastball in the zone 58 percent of the time. This year the fastball has been in the zone just 46 percent of the time, ultimately one of the reasons he has walked a few more batters than he would have liked. That, in addition to a slight groin tweak, may have played a role in his month of June and his demotion in the bullpen’s hierarchy. In June, he entered 10 games, worked 9.2 innings and allowed 14 hits with 6 walks that led to 9 runs. Opponents had gone 14-for-43 (.326) with seven extra base hits, including two home runs. Burton earned three losses in that stretch and fell out of favor for use in the eighth inning work. Burton did not blame the tweaked groin or any mechanical changes or ailments to his arm. He did not rush out for answers either by examining video or seeking assistance from other outside sources for his disappointing month. “It’s just a part of the game, really,” he says. “It’s a little harder to get over the ones where you feel you are executing but not getting results, but you just have to ride it out. You can’t ride the peaks and valleys, you have to stay right in the middle. You have to know that 70-75 games that if you stick with your stuff, it is going to work out.” That, in essence, is the fundamentals in the sabermetric theory of Fielding Independent Pitching or FIP. Over the course of a season, a pitcher who strikeouts hitters at a high rate, does not walk many and allows few home runs should be the benefactor of decent mainstream statistics like ERA over the course of a season. Continuing to do the basics like get strikeouts while limiting walks and home runs, should bring the totals back down following rough patches like Burton experienced in June. Burton has clearly stuck with his stuff. Since June ended, he has made 15 appearances while striking out 13, walking just two while not allowing a home run. As such, his overall numbers have rebounded nicely and his ERA dropped from 3.57 to 3.19. *** It is consistency and trust in his stuff that has gotten Burton where he is today. Sure, he has made some changes to his training regimen that he feels has improved his game. Following his second shoulder surgery while with Cincinnati, Burton took up swimming. He felt his performance benefited from this routine so he continues to incorporate the workout, both during and after the season. Outside of that, it is business as usually for Burton. Establish the fastball, deploy the change and mentally prepare for the peaks and valleys.