Don't Feed the Greed Guy

Hey all, Baseball is a form of theater. For example, we have our small-market Rebellion battling against The Evil Empire. These are the Meta narratives that we construct, in order to make sense and meaning out of a box score, or a trip to the ballgame with peanuts and Cracker Jacks with our children, or a beer with the guys. So, take a break from the Hot Stove League, and consider (don't ponder, us Viking fans have done enough of that!), consider the question of Jeter's 3000th hit, and one fan's response. What would you do? Click on the link below: Blog: RP Blog | Sports | Ethics | Returning Jeter?s 3,000th Hit Ball | The Responsibility Project by Liberty Mutual

Hey all, Baseball is a form of theater. For example, we have our small-market Rebellion battling against The Evil Empire. These are the Meta narratives that we construct, in order to make sense and meaning out of a box score, or a trip to the ballgame with peanuts and Cracker Jacks with our children, or a beer with the guys. So, take a break from the Hot Stove League, and consider (don't ponder, us Viking fans have done enough of that!), consider the question of Jeter's 3000th hit, and one fan's response. What would you do? Click on the link below: Blog: RP Blog | Sports | Ethics | Returning Jeter?s 3,000th Hit Ball | The Responsibility Project by Liberty Mutual

Hey all, Here’s what I don’t understand: let’s call it “throwing good money after bad.” Blackburn’s $5.5 million contract is bad money. The Twins still had—had money in their purses after dropping about $26 million in 2012 contracts that went off the payrolls or were traded away (Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Span, Nishi, Casilla). Now, by signing Correia, that’s down to $21 million. I expected to see a pitcher or two get Willingham money (3 years $21M), or Pavano money (3 years $23.5M) on a two year deal, or perhaps a three year deal, so $7-8M/year. This is where the market falls, excluding Greinke, at $23.5M/year over a six year contract. His contract is the anomaly: The Market [TABLE=class: cms_table] Pitcher age IP ERA YRs $/yr Peavy 31 219 3.37 2 14.5 Haren 32 176 4.33 1 13 Guthrie 33 181 4.76 3 8.3 McCarthy 29 111 3.24 2 7.75 Blanton 31 191 4.71 2 7.5 Iwamura 31 125 3.16 2 7 [/TABLE] Correia (age 32, 171 ip, 4.21 era) for 2 yrs and $ 5M/yr Available [TABLE=class: cms_table] Lohse 34 211 2.86 [/TD] Jackson 29 189 4.03 Sanchez 28 195 3.86 Dempster 35 173 3.38 Marcum 30 124 3.70 [TD] [/TABLE] I tried ranking the top twenty free agent starting pitchers who could hurl for the Twins for the next three years—with 2014 and 2015 being key contention years, they are all 35 or younger, with most being in that 29-31 range. Lots of room for debate here, but consider the money, and potential Willingham/Pavano size contract: My Top 20 1. Greinke 23.5M/yr,6 yrs 2. Lohse 3. Peavy 14.5M/yr,2 yrs 4. E. Jackson 5. McCarthy 7.75M/yr,2 yrs 6. Sanchez 7. Dempster 8. Marcum 9. Haren 13.5M/yr,1 yr 10. Guthrie 8.5M/yr, 2 yrs 11. Blanton 7.5M/yr, 2 yrs 12. Iwamura 7M/yr, 2 yrs 13. Baker 5.5M/yr, 1 yr 14. Saunders 15. Villanueva 16. Liriano 17. De La Rosa 11M/yr, 1 yr. 18. Coreia 5M/yr, 2yrs 19. Sheets 20. Marquis Bottom line, and this is about the bottom line: The Twins have room for one of the top five guys that are still on the market. They need a pitcher who can win 15 games for a 81-81 w-l season, vs. 8 wins for 73 & 89. A little Oriole's-type luck to steal 9 more w's. They needed to spend $3-4M more to make that happen. Instead they threw the $5M away, like Blackburn's $. That's throwing away good money, after bad.

Hey all, Here’s what I don’t understand: let’s call it “throwing good money after bad.” Blackburn’s $5.5 million contract is bad money. The Twins still had—had money in their purses after dropping about $26 million in 2012 contracts that went off the payrolls or were traded away (Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Span, Nishi, Casilla). Now, by signing Correia, that’s down to $21 million. I expected to see a pitcher or two get Willingham money (3 years $21M), or Pavano money (3 years $23.5M) on a two year deal, or perhaps a three year deal, so $7-8M/year. This is where the market falls, excluding Greinke, at $23.5M/year over a six year contract. His contract is the anomaly: The Market [TABLE=class: cms_table] Pitcher age IP ERA YRs $/yr Peavy 31 219 3.37 2 14.5 Haren 32 176 4.33 1 13 Guthrie 33 181 4.76 3 8.3 McCarthy 29 111 3.24 2 7.75 Blanton 31 191 4.71 2 7.5 Iwamura 31 125 3.16 2 7 [/TABLE] Correia (age 32, 171 ip, 4.21 era) for 2 yrs and $ 5M/yr Available [TABLE=class: cms_table] Lohse 34 211 2.86 [/TD] Jackson 29 189 4.03 Sanchez 28 195 3.86 Dempster 35 173 3.38 Marcum 30 124 3.70 [TD] [/TABLE] I tried ranking the top twenty free agent starting pitchers who could hurl for the Twins for the next three years—with 2014 and 2015 being key contention years, they are all 35 or younger, with most being in that 29-31 range. Lots of room for debate here, but consider the money, and potential Willingham/Pavano size contract: My Top 20 1. Greinke 23.5M/yr,6 yrs 2. Lohse 3. Peavy 14.5M/yr,2 yrs 4. E. Jackson 5. McCarthy 7.75M/yr,2 yrs 6. Sanchez 7. Dempster 8. Marcum 9. Haren 13.5M/yr,1 yr 10. Guthrie 8.5M/yr, 2 yrs 11. Blanton 7.5M/yr, 2 yrs 12. Iwamura 7M/yr, 2 yrs 13. Baker 5.5M/yr, 1 yr 14. Saunders 15. Villanueva 16. Liriano 17. De La Rosa 11M/yr, 1 yr. 18. Coreia 5M/yr, 2yrs 19. Sheets 20. Marquis Bottom line, and this is about the bottom line: The Twins have room for one of the top five guys that are still on the market. They need a pitcher who can win 15 games for a 81-81 w-l season, vs. 8 wins for 73 & 89. A little Oriole's-type luck to steal 9 more w's. They needed to spend $3-4M more to make that happen. Instead they threw the $5M away, like Blackburn's $. That's throwing away good money, after bad.

This is outstanding! Very clever...cleaver...mwahhahhahhha!

The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason saddled with the need to rebuild. As the Twins fan base begins to dwindle, and the shine seems to be coming off Target Field, questions arise about the M & M boys, andtheir long-term value in Minnesota. Both players are emerging out from under a cloud of befuddling injuries, so their long-term health is a question. Both players command a significant portion of team salary, so their combined value is a question. Joe Mauer is likely to increase his playing time at first base,raising questions about how two M’s can populate one position. Both players are leaving their twenties, and entering their thirties—Mauer is 29 and JustinMorneau is 31. Age begs the biggest unanswerable question. Will production and value decrease as these two Boys of Summer enter the midseason of their careers? Look to the East, across the St. Croix River for a possible answer in two of the greatest players to put on a Milwaukee Brewers uniform—Paul Molitor and Robin Yount. And while your gaze is turned in the direction of Wisconsin, keep looking over the horizon toward Cooperstown, NY. Both Yount and Molitor made it to the Hall of Fame because of their longevity, and their ability to remain healthy and productive over the second half of their careers. Yount nearly gave up baseball due tonagging injuries. He wanted to pursue a golfing career and briefly quit baseball. The first half of Paul Molitor’s career was a mess—injury and addiction troubled his life—and his statistical production is pockmarked with extensive gaps due to time spent on the disabled list. Milwaukee stuck with Molitor. His former cocaine addiction bears no resemblance to a concussion—except that both maladies carry a huge stigma, and recovery is wildly unpredictable. What the Brewers could control was where and when to play Molitor, and Yount. Dan Levitt and Doug Skipper recount the young Molitor’s first appearance in the Brewer’s dugout, “After the draft the Brewers invited their new phenom to Milwaukee County Stadium for the VIP treatment. While wearing a suit that was “way too big, I’m totally geekish,” Molitor met some of the players in thedugout. At one point he was sitting next to shortstop Robin Yount, only 22 years old but already in his fourth year as a starter. Veteran third basemanSal Bando stopped by and threw Yount an outfielder’s glove, telling him, “Well,I guess this will be your last year at shortstop, kid.” Molitor remembered acute embarrassment at the whole proceeding and just wanting to get away.” http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/f9d60ca6 Yount and Molitor would dance around the shortstop position. Both players showed versatility, as Molitor spent time at second base, and third. Yount would eventually move into center field. Molitor would become one of the most productive designated hitters in major league history. Bottom line?Milwaukee provided a flexible environment so that both Yount and Molitor could remain productive members of the team, at least for a while. Joe Christensen recently drew some comparisons between Mauer and Molitor. “Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, a fellow Cretin-Derham Hall product, dealt with criticism with the Milwaukee Brewers when injuries limited him to fewer than 120 games in five of his first 10 seasons. Molitor hasn't spoken to Mauer about this but said it was nice to prove he could stay healthy over the second half of his career.” http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/171947481.html Perhaps Molitor should speak to Morneau, since Molitor andMorneau have perhaps more in common, injury-wise, than the tandem of Molitor and Mauer. Concussions and cocaine, once again, are worlds apart. But finding stability and hope over the second half of a major league career—that seems to be common ground for the these two M’s. Financial concerns would eventually undermine Molitor’s relationship with the Brewers. Molitor left Milwaukee and signed as a free agent with the team that had finished four games ahead of the Brewers the year before—the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto would remain competitive, winning two World Championships, one with Molitor as the Series’ Most Valuable Player. The Brewers’ record, post-Mollie, would not climb above .500 for each of the next 14 seasons. In 1993, his first year in Toronto, Molitor placed second in the American League MVP vote, behind Frank Thomas. He would play for five more seasons. The following quote from Levitt and Skipper tells about his first year in Minnesota: “Molitor,the fourth oldest player in the league, appeared in a career high 161 of Minnesota’s 162 games for manager Tom Kelly. He batted .341, third in the American League behind Alex Rodriguez and Frank Thomas. He led the league in hits with 225—becoming the oldest player to ever lead the league in hits—drove in a career high 113 runs, and scored 99.” Do you suppose the Brewers could have used that sort of production? The Twins should not make the same mistake. The Twins and Brewers locked up Mauer and Yount as franchise players. The Brewers chose not to take that direction with Molitor. Will the Twins regret not making Morneau a lifelong Twin? These are the questions that only time can provide, but bloggers can still ask, all the same. Can anyone peer into their pouch of chewing tobacco tea leaves and offer an answer? Ps. If you have made it this far through this blog, you should REALLY make time to read the piece by Levitt and Skipper. Good research, good writing, great story!

The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason saddled with the need to rebuild. As the Twins fan base begins to dwindle, and the shine seems to be coming off Target Field, questions arise about the M & M boys, andtheir long-term value in Minnesota. Both players are emerging out from under a cloud of befuddling injuries, so their long-term health is a question. Both players command a significant portion of team salary, so their combined value is a question. Joe Mauer is likely to increase his playing time at first base,raising questions about how two M’s can populate one position. Both players are leaving their twenties, and entering their thirties—Mauer is 29 and JustinMorneau is 31. Age begs the biggest unanswerable question. Will production and value decrease as these two Boys of Summer enter the midseason of their careers? Look to the East, across the St. Croix River for a possible answer in two of the greatest players to put on a Milwaukee Brewers uniform—Paul Molitor and Robin Yount. And while your gaze is turned in the direction of Wisconsin, keep looking over the horizon toward Cooperstown, NY. Both Yount and Molitor made it to the Hall of Fame because of their longevity, and their ability to remain healthy and productive over the second half of their careers. Yount nearly gave up baseball due tonagging injuries. He wanted to pursue a golfing career and briefly quit baseball. The first half of Paul Molitor’s career was a mess—injury and addiction troubled his life—and his statistical production is pockmarked with extensive gaps due to time spent on the disabled list. Milwaukee stuck with Molitor. His former cocaine addiction bears no resemblance to a concussion—except that both maladies carry a huge stigma, and recovery is wildly unpredictable. What the Brewers could control was where and when to play Molitor, and Yount. Dan Levitt and Doug Skipper recount the young Molitor’s first appearance in the Brewer’s dugout, “After the draft the Brewers invited their new phenom to Milwaukee County Stadium for the VIP treatment. While wearing a suit that was “way too big, I’m totally geekish,” Molitor met some of the players in thedugout. At one point he was sitting next to shortstop Robin Yount, only 22 years old but already in his fourth year as a starter. Veteran third basemanSal Bando stopped by and threw Yount an outfielder’s glove, telling him, “Well,I guess this will be your last year at shortstop, kid.” Molitor remembered acute embarrassment at the whole proceeding and just wanting to get away.” http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/f9d60ca6 Yount and Molitor would dance around the shortstop position. Both players showed versatility, as Molitor spent time at second base, and third. Yount would eventually move into center field. Molitor would become one of the most productive designated hitters in major league history. Bottom line?Milwaukee provided a flexible environment so that both Yount and Molitor could remain productive members of the team, at least for a while. Joe Christensen recently drew some comparisons between Mauer and Molitor. “Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, a fellow Cretin-Derham Hall product, dealt with criticism with the Milwaukee Brewers when injuries limited him to fewer than 120 games in five of his first 10 seasons. Molitor hasn't spoken to Mauer about this but said it was nice to prove he could stay healthy over the second half of his career.” http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/171947481.html Perhaps Molitor should speak to Morneau, since Molitor andMorneau have perhaps more in common, injury-wise, than the tandem of Molitor and Mauer. Concussions and cocaine, once again, are worlds apart. But finding stability and hope over the second half of a major league career—that seems to be common ground for the these two M’s. Financial concerns would eventually undermine Molitor’s relationship with the Brewers. Molitor left Milwaukee and signed as a free agent with the team that had finished four games ahead of the Brewers the year before—the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto would remain competitive, winning two World Championships, one with Molitor as the Series’ Most Valuable Player. The Brewers’ record, post-Mollie, would not climb above .500 for each of the next 14 seasons. In 1993, his first year in Toronto, Molitor placed second in the American League MVP vote, behind Frank Thomas. He would play for five more seasons. The following quote from Levitt and Skipper tells about his first year in Minnesota: “Molitor,the fourth oldest player in the league, appeared in a career high 161 of Minnesota’s 162 games for manager Tom Kelly. He batted .341, third in the American League behind Alex Rodriguez and Frank Thomas. He led the league in hits with 225—becoming the oldest player to ever lead the league in hits—drove in a career high 113 runs, and scored 99.” Do you suppose the Brewers could have used that sort of production? The Twins should not make the same mistake. The Twins and Brewers locked up Mauer and Yount as franchise players. The Brewers chose not to take that direction with Molitor. Will the Twins regret not making Morneau a lifelong Twin? These are the questions that only time can provide, but bloggers can still ask, all the same. Can anyone peer into their pouch of chewing tobacco tea leaves and offer an answer? Ps. If you have made it this far through this blog, you should REALLY make time to read the piece by Levitt and Skipper. Good research, good writing, great story!

Hey all, I want to see what Justin Morneau can do with a healthy first half of 2013. His stats are notoriously strong over the first half of a season, and tend to taper off after the All-Star break. Consider his last three "healthy" seasons, and and his five "full" seasons: 1st Half ....................... 2nd Half 2009: .311/.390/.575 .201/.310/.402 2008: .323/.391/.512 .267/.350/.481 2007: .295/.364/.581 .243/.318/.384 2006: .300/.352/.587 .342/.399/.531 (still, a modest decline in slugging pct.) 2005: .267/.331/.477 .211/.277/.397 I think we can agree that over the first half of 2012, Morneau was in recovery mode. Take a look at his progression over this year... 2012: .246/.312/.440 .319/.376/.505 I am ready to see what the Big Canadian can do in the first half of 2013, healthy, rested, and wearing a Twins uniform.

Hey all, I want to see what Justin Morneau can do with a healthy first half of 2013. His stats are notoriously strong over the first half of a season, and tend to taper off after the All-Star break. Consider his last three "healthy" seasons, and and his five "full" seasons: 1st Half ....................... 2nd Half 2009: .311/.390/.575 .201/.310/.402 2008: .323/.391/.512 .267/.350/.481 2007: .295/.364/.581 .243/.318/.384 2006: .300/.352/.587 .342/.399/.531 (still, a modest decline in slugging pct.) 2005: .267/.331/.477 .211/.277/.397 I think we can agree that over the first half of 2012, Morneau was in recovery mode. Take a look at his progression over this year... 2012: .246/.312/.440 .319/.376/.505 I am ready to see what the Big Canadian can do in the first half of 2013, healthy, rested, and wearing a Twins uniform.

Lew Ford homered to left center field off of C.C. Sabathia last night (9/8/12), his third home run in 55 at bats for Baltimore. Later in the game, Nick Markakis broke his thumb. He will be out for six weeks. So, will Lew Ford be patrolling/platooning in right field for the O's if they make the postseason? LLEEEWWW hasn't spent a lot of time in Baltimore this season, but with Markakis out, one must ask the proverbial question, 'Will Baltimore Get Mileage from Ford' on their postseason roster? Count me as one who will be cheering him on. Ford earned quite a reputation for burning himself with a hotel iron, allegedly while wearing the wrinkled shirt. He argues that he accidently leaned into the iron, after pressing the shirt like most mere mortals do. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/040512 He was also known for playing Dungeons and Dragons with the clubhouse staff and online all night on road trips with the Twins. Seriously, Joe Christensen does a nice job of chronicling Ford's fall from Gardy's grace and rise back to the major leagues in the Sunday Insider. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/168998256.html?refer=y It's a great feel-good baseball story. But can it last? Did we hear the last blast from Lew last night? Or is there more to come in this improbable story?

Lew Ford homered to left center field off of C.C. Sabathia last night (9/8/12), his third home run in 55 at bats for Baltimore. Later in the game, Nick Markakis broke his thumb. He will be out for six weeks. So, will Lew Ford be patrolling/platooning in right field for the O's if they make the postseason? LLEEEWWW hasn't spent a lot of time in Baltimore this season, but with Markakis out, one must ask the proverbial question, 'Will Baltimore Get Mileage from Ford' on their postseason roster? Count me as one who will be cheering him on. Ford earned quite a reputation for burning himself with a hotel iron, allegedly while wearing the wrinkled shirt. He argues that he accidently leaned into the iron, after pressing the shirt like most mere mortals do. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/040512 He was also known for playing Dungeons and Dragons with the clubhouse staff and online all night on road trips with the Twins. Seriously, Joe Christensen does a nice job of chronicling Ford's fall from Gardy's grace and rise back to the major leagues in the Sunday Insider. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/168998256.html?refer=y It's a great feel-good baseball story. But can it last? Did we hear the last blast from Lew last night? Or is there more to come in this improbable story?

Shane, You don't mention Chris Parmelee in your outfield projection. He's batting .375 with three home runs and eight rbi's in the last nine games. It may be that you've slotted him in as the heir apparent at first base, but Gardy has been putting him in right field lately. How does he fit into your outfield, if at all? Don't Feed the Greed