Seth Stohs

I like the walks this year, but his K/PA matters more to me, and now it's a scary number.

Correct, to some degree. i agree that it isn't fair to those that are still playing which is why I mentioned the likes of Verlander and Lincecum. The per-year thing is good, but I think you also want at top pitcher to give more than 2-3 years like Prior, great as they were. And, I thought about how it would look, relative to high school pitchers or hitters or college hitters, but at the same time, I think this tells the story for college pitchers and says that as optimistic as we want to be about a college pitcher, it may should be tempered. It's not to say that drafting a high school bat is better or worse.

In the season's first three weeks, the Twins have played the top teams in the AL East and AL West. I think that the Tigers fit into the discussion as well, and the White Sox are surprising a lot of people. So, as a Twins fan who has seen the team's from the east and west and know enough about the Tigers and Sox, how would you rank the top teams in the AL? I would go: Texas Rangers - dominant offense, SP and RP with strong D Detroit Tigers - dominant offense, good top SP, solid BP Tampa Bay Rays - dominant SP, decent offense, questionable BP LA Angels - dominant SP (even though the Twins did well against them), solid offense, decent BP NY Yankees - dominant offense, decent SP, dominant back of BP Boston Red Sox - dominant offense, good SP, questionable BP Chicago White Sox - decent offense, decent but good so far SP, questionable BP. What do you think? I can't put the Orioles in there yet, or the Blue Jays.

The Twins likely have more prospects in Rochester than most teams in AAA. Have you seen some of these rosters. Syracuse has Bryce Harper, but they also have Jason Michaels and MArk Teahen and a lot of veterans. Lehigh Valley is pretty much nothing but veteran types. I'm not a fan of that. I do like that the Twins have a good mix of veterans and prospects. Was Ben Revere served well by getting pushed too quickly from AAA to MLB? I don't think so. He was alright, but what could he have done with appropriate AAA time last year. Chris Parmelee had a nice season in AA last year, but it wasn't dominant by any means, and the Rock Cats were actually in contention for a playoff spot, and that can be part of the development process too, learning to play as a team toward a goal. Same with Joe Benson. And, Parmelee got pushed this year to the big leagues and I think it's fair to say that he's struggling and should be in AAA. Benson is struggling in AAA. Dozier is a different example because he was dominating at FM last year when promoted to NB. The Twins promoted a ton of prospects throughout the year last year, so I don't think it's fair to say that they don't. I'm all for rewarding good play, but that good play has to be more than 3 weeks of good play too. The other thing to remember is that it is possible that Thurston and several of the other veterans at Rochester may have opt-out clauses so there could be some transactions coming by sometime in May, or June 1. There will be injuries, and promotions, particularly at the season's mid-point.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?476-Draft-a-College-Pitcher-Are-you-sure

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system. [ATTACH=CONFIG]755[/ATTACH]

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.

I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now. Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do. I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule. I decided to use Career WAR as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate. I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36. To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know. Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR: [TABLE=width: 424] [TD=width: 53, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Yr [/TD] [TD=width: 52, bgcolor: transparent] Overall [/TD] [TD=width: 129, bgcolor: transparent]Name [/TD] [TD=width: 189, bgcolor: transparent]College [/TD] [TD=width: 99, bgcolor: transparent]Draft Team [/TD] [TD=width: 43, bgcolor: transparent] WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Roger Clemens [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 145.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1990 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Mussina [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 85.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Kevin Brown [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Georgia Tech [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 77.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mike Moore [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oral Roberts [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Andy Benes [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Evansville [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Padres [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1987 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jack McDowell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Stanford [/TD] [TD=width: 99]White Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 35.0 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1986 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Greg Swindell [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Texas [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Charles Nagy [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Connecticut [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Indians [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 34.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1991 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Aaron Sele [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington St [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Red Sox [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 33.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Justin Verlander [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Old Dominion [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 32.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben Sheets [/TD] [TD=width: 189]NE Louisiana State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Brewers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1985 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Bobby Witt [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Oklahoma [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1983 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Belcher [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Mt Vernon Nazarene College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Twins [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1999 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Barry Zito [/TD] [TD=width: 189]USC [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 31.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1995 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Matt Morris [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Seton Hall [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Cardinals [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 29.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2006 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Tim Lincecum [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Washington [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 27.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Terry Mulholland [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Marietta College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Giants [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 26.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1993 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Wagner [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Ferrum College [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Astros [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1984 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Billy Swift [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Maine [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Mariners [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 2004 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jered Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Long Beach State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 24.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1988 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jim Abbott [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Angels [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Jeff Weaver [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Fresno State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Tigers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 23.2 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1981 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ron Darling [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Yale [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Rangers [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 22.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1989 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Ben McDonald [/TD] [TD=width: 189]LSU [/TD] [TD=width: 99]Orioles [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 53] 1998 [/TD] [TD=width: 52] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 129]Mark Mulder [/TD] [TD=width: 189]Michigan State [/TD] [TD=width: 99]A's [/TD] [TD=width: 43] 21.1 [/TD] [/TABLE] Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers? Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown: Career WAR Pitchers >20 25 10.1 - 20 25 5.1 - 10 16 0 – 10 78 No MLB 49 Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks. Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2. Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.) (The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.) The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart: [TABLE=width: 427] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] Draft Slot [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] College Pitchers [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] Avg Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] No Maj Lg Experience [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Highest Career WAR [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 15.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 16.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Greg Swindell (34.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 7.5 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Bobby Witt (31.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Kevin Brown (77.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jack McDowell (35.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ricky Romero (9.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Dan Reichert (3.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.7 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jim Abbott (23.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Barry Zito (31.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.1 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ben Sheets (31.7) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 11 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 1.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Max Scherzer (10.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 17.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Morris (29.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 13 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mark Redman (17.3) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 14 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Jeff Weaver (23.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 15 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 0.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Sean Lowe (1.8) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 16 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 17 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 9.3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Charles Nagy (34.4) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 18 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Joe Magrane (15.0) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 19 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 14.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Roger Clemens (145.5) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 20 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 11.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Mike Mussina (85.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 21 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Ian Kennedy (7.9) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 22 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 3.4 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Rick Helling (15.1) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 23 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 5.9 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Aaron Sele (33.6) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 24 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 4.8 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 3 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Terry Mulholland (26.2) [/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: transparent] 25 [/TD] [TD=width: 69, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 84, bgcolor: transparent] 2.6 [/TD] [TD=width: 81, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=width: 269, bgcolor: transparent]Matt Garza (14.6) [/TD] [/TABLE] SUMMARY In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick. What does this mean to the Twins? Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy. However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher. Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?475-Wednesday-Night-Twins-Minor-League-Game-Notes

The Twins and Red Sox are battling in a suddenly-close game in the late innings of the final game of what has been an immensely frustrating series for the Twins and their fans. Which is another good reason to follow the Twins minor league games. There’s always plenty of positive to be taken from the games, even if three of the four Twins affiliates lost. Here is a look at the Twins minor league scores and highlights from Wednesday: ROCHESTER 5, SYRACUSE 10 The Red Wings hadn’t played for two days due to a scheduled day off and a rain-out, and it showed somewhat on Wednesday against the Nationals’ AAA affiliate. Daryl Thompson started and gave up four runs on five hits and four walks in five innings. He struck out four. Anthony Slama came in and struck out the side in the 6th and another in a scoreless 7th. Tyler Robertson had a rough one. He didn’t get anyone out and gave up four runs on three hits and a walk. Brendan Wise got out of the 7th and also pitched the eighth. He gave up two unearned runs on three hits in those two innings. Darin Mastroianni led the offense. He went 3-4 with a walk and stole two bases. Ray Chang was 2-4. Matt Carson went 1-3 with two walks. Aaron Bats got on three times via the walk. The Red Wings were especially hurt by the long ball. In this game, former big leaguers Mark Teahen and Jason Michaels each hit a grand slam. Bryce Harper was 1-3 with a walk and a, ahem… sacrifice bunt. NEW BRITAIN 3, PORTLAND 7 Luke French was back on the mound for the Rock Cats in a Wednesday morning game. The lefty went 6.1 innings and gave up two runs on seven hits. He walked none and struck out four. Daniel Turpen pitched well until the ninth. In all, he gave up four runs on six hits in 2.1 innings. He walked none and struck out three. Bobby Lanigan gave up an unearned run on one hit and got the final out. James Beresford went 2-3. Estarlin de Los Santos and Chris Colabello each hit a double. Nate Hanson walked twice. FT. MYERS MIRACLE 2, PALM BEACH 6 It’s been a struggle for the talented Adrian Salcedo this early season and his Wednesday start was very rough. In just 2.2 innings, he gave up six earned runs on five hits. Most concerning, he walked five batters which is alarming because he has always displayed very good control. Jose Gonzalez struck out two in 2.1 scoreless innings. Bruce Pugh struck out two in three scoreless, hitless innings. Caleb Thielbar pitched another scoreless inning. The Miracle managed just four hits in the game. Jairo Perez hit his second home run of the season. BELOIT 9, BOWLING GREEN 3 The Snappers returned home from West Michigan to take on Bowling Green on Wednesday night. The offense certainly showed up and scored nine runs. What is most impressive is that the offense scored nine runs despite the 3-4-5 hitters (Sano-Rosario-Ortiz) combining to go 1-11 in the game. Eight-hitter Jairo Rodriguez led the way. He went 3-4 with his third double and three RBI. Ninth hitter, AJ Pettersen, was 2-3 with his second double and two RBI. Lead-off man, Wang-Wei Lin, was 2-5 with his third double and two RBI. Adam Bryant (2nd hitter) drove in the other two runs. Tyler Grimes added a triple. Jason Wheeler improved to 2-0 with a Quality Start. He gave up three runs on 10 hits in six innings. He walked none and struck out two. Michael Tonkin was perfect for two innings. Corey Williams struck out two (and walked one) in a scoreless ninth. --- Players of the Day for Wednesday, April 25, 2012 Hitter of the Day – Jairo Rodriguez [ATTACH=CONFIG]750[/ATTACH] Pitcher of the Day – Bruce Pugh [ATTACH=CONFIG]751[/ATTACH] --- A Look Ahead – Thursday, April 26, 2012 Schedule Rochester vs Syracuse (DH) – RHP Cole DeVries, RHP Sam Deduno New Britain – No Game Scheduled, Travel Day Ft. Myers vs Palm Beach – RHP Marty Popham Beloit vs Bowling Green – RHP Matt Summers --- If you have any questions or comments on the Twins minor league system, players, teams, etc., leave them in the Comments and I’ll try to answer them!

It makes sense because Rochester needs middle infielders. He's not going to take time from prospects. Florimon is where he needs to b e. No need to move him up at this point. Thurston's a very good AAA player who will help Rochester. This isn't a sign for the big leagues at all. This is for Rochester, and that's OK.

1.) We knew all along that from a strictly baseball standpoint, the contract would never make sense, but we also all know that the Twins had to sign him or moving into Target Field may have been a mess. 2.) The money is spent. They can't un-do it. They can't alter it. It is what it is at this point. 3.) If the Twins have a $95 Million payroll this year, and Joe Mauer is $23 million of it, there is still another $72 million to spend, and Terry Ryan has build playoff teams on less than that. The Mauer contract is just an excuse. 4.) The Twins have given long-term contracts to several players. Sometimes it has worked (Hunter, Santana, Radke, Nathan's first one), and some haven't (Blackburn's, Nathan's second one).

Twins Lineup: Denard Span CF Jamey Carroll SS Joe Mauer C Justin Morneau DH Chris Parmelee 1B Trevor Plouffe RF Sean Burroughs 3B Ben Revere LF Alexi Casilla 2B SP: Liam Hendriks

That is correct!

olHe'll get his SLG via doubles. He's 29. to a large extent, he is what it is at this point. I don't think it's fair or right to expect him to be something that he isn'tjust because of the contract that was signed 2 years ago. I don't want him to change the approach that has made him a future hall of famer.

The key point isn't where he ranks right now in SLG (and that's not his stat to watch anyway, he's a BA/OBP guy). It's that he's healthy and Gardy is finding a way to get him in the lineup every day. My contention might actually be that they are making a statement that they shouldn't. I would have no problem with him missing a game every 20. He is still catching at least half the time, so a true day off would not be a bad thing.

Agreed that there aren't any 'exciting' guys to bring up from Rochester. Scott Diamond talked about a couple of adjustments he needed to make after last year, the first year he's struggled in pro ball, and through four starts he's sure looking good. If you're just looking for replacements, PJ Walters could come up and pitch as well as those guys. I think Cole DeVries could too. But I agree with birdwatcher too. There have already been a lot of key injuries, and there are a lot of strengths in the minor leagues too. That said, when the sell-off begins, Pitching should absolutely be the #1 target!

Probably not. They shoudln't overreact to Maloney's appearance last night, or to Burnett's struggles. Gray would remain the one to consider at this point.

I'm frustrated as anyone, but I can't imagine it ever being so bad that I wouldn't watch them. I'm actually thrown by the question, cuz I just don't get the concept of not watching the team your a fan of.